Nolan Show This Morning

[ravedave]

I only caught the top of the show as I was going into work. One of the features was to be has NI house prices bottomed out.

Did anyone listen in and if so, what was said on the subject?

Cheers.

[Belfast Boy]

I thought house prices had bottomed out last year. No wait, it was the year before last.

How can house prices possibly bottom when the cuts have not really started yet?

Only monkeys pick bottoms.

(my guess is that house prices will actually bottom around 2014 )

[sirbinlid]

wasnt nolan on his own show before and in the papers crying about how much he lost on his own portfolio

good enough for the fat obnoxious beefer

[Bill Poster]

wasnt nolan on his own show before and in the papers crying about how much he lost on his own portfolio

good enough for the fat obnoxious beefer

That's a bit rough. I think he is a fair minded chap although sometimes he does not concentrate hard enough to take in what people are saying to him although I assume he has a lot of voices in his ears.

He is not afraid to make light of himself too. Boom, boom.

[pajd]

The only bottom Nolan should be worried about is his own!

[headmelter]

Got most of it Some Befast/North down EA on spouting about how well he had done in recent weeks and how we'd reached the bottom. FP came on and pointed out a few salient points EA might have 'omitted'.

We know the bottom isn't in yet and the Nolan show isn'nt going to slow the descent down never mind turn it around.

[Killer Bunny]

The debate

[pajd]

The debate

Thanks for that.

Its funny isnt it.....JD provides every day examples of why the market will fall further. While the EA can only say he has been busy. He also said he had 21 sale agreed this week, 18 last week and 12 the week before that. If thats true then it would be interesting to see how many actually sell

[Shotoflight]

Thanks for that.

Its funny isnt it.....JD provides every day examples of why the market will fall further. While the EA can only say he has been busy. He also said he had 21 sale agreed this week, 18 last week and 12 the week before that. If thats true then it would be interesting to see how many actually sell

Yes, thanks for the link.

Minor Spring bounce arrives in affluent North Down with houses reduced by 50%

I have no issue with houses selling, or more houses selling. The EA agrees some 50% in price has come off the market and presumably he is working from that. Houses will sell if priced properly (we all have different perceptions from the aspirational to the auction). 50% from top prices would be a dream in my area.

If other EAs want to sell houses, then take a leaf out of this guy's book and start pricing 50% from top and see what happens. You might as well try that now, because I do agree fundamentals are getting worse economically and prices have to fall further.

Interestingly the EA mentions at or near 'capital' in regards pricing - I presume he means Capital or Rateable Value.

He also states EAs and house sellers outside North Down and Greater Belfast must get real and are lagging behind in pricing, hence not getting sales. At least, that's what I think he said.

Beautiful insert of RICS further drops report KB. Tom must still be on holidays since christmas when he told NI EA's to shut up shop. No big loss.

Edited April 15, 2011 by Shotoflight

[lolacarrascal]

Thanks for that.

Its funny isnt it.....JD provides every day examples of why the market will fall further. While the EA can only say he has been busy. He also said he had 21 sale agreed this week, 18 last week and 12 the week before that. If thats true then it would be interesting to see how many actually sell

When pressed by Nolan, John Minnis said that he had 21 sale agreed houses last week, 18 the week before that and 12 the week before that for a total of 51. The John Minnis web-site had tonight 311 properties listed for sale of which 54 were listed as sale agreed. A search on PropertyNews revealed similar figures between the two Minnis officies with 315 listings (1 duplicate and 3 new build also listed by Reid Rains = 311) of which 58 were shown as sale agreed (1 duplicate and 3 new build also listed by Reid Rains = 54).

Of the actual 57 sale agreed by John Minnis on PropertyNews, PropertyBee shows that 5 had their status changed to sale agreed last week, 5 to sale agreed week before and 7 to sale agreed week before that for a total of 17 compared to the 51 claimed by Minnis for the same period.

Another 15 of the 57 had their status changed this week to sale agreed but all of these were after the date of the broadcast.

Of the remaining 25 of the 57 total of the John Minnis sale agreed on PropertyNews, again according to PropertyBee, 13 had their status changed to sale agreed between 1-20th March, 6 during February, 1 in January, 1 in December 2010, 4 in November 2010. All of the 54 properties listed as sale agreed on the John Minnis site are identical within the 57 sale agreed listed on PropertyNews (the other 3 being new build properties that were also listed by Reed Rains who presumably was lead agent).

Anyone care to suggest how the missing 34 sale agreed can be accounted for? Would they really have been removed from the listings so quickly?

[2buyornot2buy]

When pressed by Nolan, John Minnis said that he had 21 sale agreed houses last week, 18 the week before that and 12 the week before that for a total of 51. The John Minnis web-site had tonight 311 properties listed for sale of which 54 were listed as sale agreed. A search on PropertyNews revealed similar figures between the two Minnis officies with 315 listings (1 duplicate and 3 new build also listed by Reid Rains = 311) of which 58 were shown as sale agreed (1 duplicate and 3 new build also listed by Reid Rains = 54).

Of the actual 57 sale agreed by John Minnis on PropertyNews, PropertyBee shows that 5 had their status changed to sale agreed last week, 5 to sale agreed week before and 7 to sale agreed week before that for a total of 17 compared to the 51 claimed by Minnis for the same period.

Another 15 of the 57 had their status changed this week to sale agreed but all of these were after the date of the broadcast.

Of the remaining 25 of the 57 total of the John Minnis sale agreed on PropertyNews, again according to PropertyBee, 13 had their status changed to sale agreed between 1-20th March, 6 during February, 1 in January, 1 in December 2010, 4 in November 2010. All of the 54 properties listed as sale agreed on the John Minnis site are identical within the 57 sale agreed listed on PropertyNews (the other 3 being new build properties that were also listed by Reed Rains who presumably was lead agent).

Anyone care to suggest how the missing 34 sale agreed can be accounted for? Would they really have been removed from the listings so quickly?

+1great spot there.

[Malthus]

When pressed by Nolan, John Minnis said that he had 21 sale agreed houses last week, 18 the week before that and 12 the week before that for a total of 51. The John Minnis web-site had tonight 311 properties listed for sale of which 54 were listed as sale agreed. A search on PropertyNews revealed similar figures between the two Minnis officies with 315 listings (1 duplicate and 3 new build also listed by Reid Rains = 311) of which 58 were shown as sale agreed (1 duplicate and 3 new build also listed by Reid Rains = 54).

Of the actual 57 sale agreed by John Minnis on PropertyNews, PropertyBee shows that 5 had their status changed to sale agreed last week, 5 to sale agreed week before and 7 to sale agreed week before that for a total of 17 compared to the 51 claimed by Minnis for the same period.

Another 15 of the 57 had their status changed this week to sale agreed but all of these were after the date of the broadcast.

Of the remaining 25 of the 57 total of the John Minnis sale agreed on PropertyNews, again according to PropertyBee, 13 had their status changed to sale agreed between 1-20th March, 6 during February, 1 in January, 1 in December 2010, 4 in November 2010. All of the 54 properties listed as sale agreed on the John Minnis site are identical within the 57 sale agreed listed on PropertyNews (the other 3 being new build properties that were also listed by Reed Rains who presumably was lead agent).

Anyone care to suggest how the missing 34 sale agreed can be accounted for? Would they really have been removed from the listings so quickly?

Excellent work. Does make you wonder about the RICS reports and UU survey based on information provided by EA's :angry:

[mmca22gr]

When pressed by Nolan, John Minnis said that he had 21 sale agreed houses last week, 18 the week before that and 12 the week before that for a total of 51. The John Minnis web-site had tonight 311 properties listed for sale of which 54 were listed as sale agreed. A search on PropertyNews revealed similar figures between the two Minnis officies with 315 listings (1 duplicate and 3 new build also listed by Reid Rains = 311) of which 58 were shown as sale agreed (1 duplicate and 3 new build also listed by Reid Rains = 54).

Of the actual 57 sale agreed by John Minnis on PropertyNews, PropertyBee shows that 5 had their status changed to sale agreed last week, 5 to sale agreed week before and 7 to sale agreed week before that for a total of 17 compared to the 51 claimed by Minnis for the same period.

Another 15 of the 57 had their status changed this week to sale agreed but all of these were after the date of the broadcast.

Of the remaining 25 of the 57 total of the John Minnis sale agreed on PropertyNews, again according to PropertyBee, 13 had their status changed to sale agreed between 1-20th March, 6 during February, 1 in January, 1 in December 2010, 4 in November 2010. All of the 54 properties listed as sale agreed on the John Minnis site are identical within the 57 sale agreed listed on PropertyNews (the other 3 being new build properties that were also listed by Reed Rains who presumably was lead agent).

Anyone care to suggest how the missing 34 sale agreed can be accounted for? Would they really have been removed from the listings so quickly?

This is what the researchers on the BBC should be doing. It is not rocket science - but the BBC tend to give anyone a free run at talking sh1te on the radio without even a superficial analysis.

[BelfastVI]

When pressed by Nolan, John Minnis said that he had 21 sale agreed houses last week, 18 the week before that and 12 the week before that for a total of 51. The John Minnis web-site had tonight 311 properties listed for sale of which 54 were listed as sale agreed. A search on PropertyNews revealed similar figures between the two Minnis officies with 315 listings (1 duplicate and 3 new build also listed by Reid Rains = 311) of which 58 were shown as sale agreed (1 duplicate and 3 new build also listed by Reid Rains = 54).

Of the actual 57 sale agreed by John Minnis on PropertyNews, PropertyBee shows that 5 had their status changed to sale agreed last week, 5 to sale agreed week before and 7 to sale agreed week before that for a total of 17 compared to the 51 claimed by Minnis for the same period.

Another 15 of the 57 had their status changed this week to sale agreed but all of these were after the date of the broadcast.

Of the remaining 25 of the 57 total of the John Minnis sale agreed on PropertyNews, again according to PropertyBee, 13 had their status changed to sale agreed between 1-20th March, 6 during February, 1 in January, 1 in December 2010, 4 in November 2010. All of the 54 properties listed as sale agreed on the John Minnis site are identical within the 57 sale agreed listed on PropertyNews (the other 3 being new build properties that were also listed by Reed Rains who presumably was lead agent).

Anyone care to suggest how the missing 34 sale agreed can be accounted for? Would they really have been removed from the listings so quickly?

Am I right that the radio show was on the 14th April and your post was on the 15th April. You say that there were 15 Sale agreed, but the date was after the broadcast. Was the broadcast recorded rather than live?

[2buyornot2buy]

Am I right that the radio show was on the 14th April and your post was on the 15th April. You say that there were 15 Sale agreed, but the date was after the broadcast. Was the broadcast recorded rather than live?

You've lost me here.

[tinbin]

This is what the researchers on the BBC should be doing. It is not rocket science - but the BBC tend to give anyone a free run at talking sh1te on the radio without even a superficial analysis.

John certainly didn't sound too convincing about his figures, he didn't sound like he was comfortable either being put on the spot about his number of sales.

This is part of a concerted attempt by EA's to talk up the market. Look past all this nonsense and all you will see are manipulated figures.

Sales are what count.Fickle propaganda gets no-where.

IMO we are entering a desperation/fear stage for alot of EA's It suggests to me that they are running out of options when it all starts getting a bit silly. There is no significant evidence to back up any of these claims ... none, and if there was believe me they would be ramming it down the throats of the media to prove it.

Edited April 18, 2011 by tinbin

[lolacarrascal]

Am I right that the radio show was on the 14th April and your post was on the 15th April. You say that there were 15 Sale agreed, but the date was after the broadcast. Was the broadcast recorded rather than live?

This thread was started on Wed 13th and I had presumed that the broadcast had gone out that date. On checking now I see that the clip was taken from the programme that aired on Thur 14th April. I always understood that the Nolan Show was a live broadcast but I'm not sure what your point is - perhaps you are surprised by how many he had agreed on Friday 15th!

According to PropertyBee, John Minnis sale agreed for the week of the broadcast were Mon 11th = 0, Tue 12th = 0 Wed 13th = 1, Thur 14th = 1, Fri 15th = 13 for a total of 15.

But the figures for sales agreed that John Minnis quoted during the broadcast were specifically for the 3 weeks before the week of the broadcast, so none of these 15 could have been included.

[2buyornot2buy]

John certainly didn't sound too convincing about his figures, he didn't sound like he was comfortable either being put on the spot about his number of sales.

This is part of a concerted attempt by EA's to talk up the market. Look past all this nonsense and all you will see are manipulated figures.

Sales are what count.Fickle propaganda gets no-where.

IMO we are entering a desperation/fear stage for alot of EA's It suggests to me that they are running out of options when it all starts getting a bit silly. There is no significant evidence to back up any of these claims ... none, and if there was believe me they would be ramming it down the throats of the media to prove it.

I agree with this 100%. The VIs are crawling out from under their stones. I think for them it really is starting to look like the last throw of the dice. I have no doubt that sales will have increased because of the spring but to suggest this is the “bottom” or the start of anything that will remotely resemble a functioning market is verging on delusional.

We really are up against a group of people with massive resources. A media that receives massive amounts of money from the EAs, developer’s showing off the naive FTBs that have just purchased the overpriced shoeboxes with 20% deposits from BOMAD on a co-ownership or 35 year shared equity mortgage.

We are fighting an uphill battle. The public want to hear their 2 up 2 down is worth 200K. Most still think massive HPI is their God given right - a path to riches.

I know we are nowhere near the bottom. I’m seriously finding it hard to talk to someone in work and even my family members that have not one or two BTLs. It’s their pensions don’t you know. Any move to interest rates approaching normal will probably bankrupt them all. Everyone seems to be up to their eyeballs in debt.

I’ve also got my eyes open as to what is seen as a “good” wage in Belfast and it is a lot lower than I would have guessed. How half my friends on less money will pay for their house I just don’t know? These are young people with 4X+ duel income mortgages.

Forget about the VI spin from the media, developers, EAs etc. They may have the support of the government and their spin gets lapped up by the heavily indebted but even they can’t change the course we’ve been set upon. We’re at least 50% down and all the signs point to further falls ahead.

[BelfastVI]

This thread was started on Wed 13th and I had presumed that the broadcast had gone out that date. On checking now I see that the clip was taken from the programme that aired on Thur 14th April. I always understood that the Nolan Show was a live broadcast but I'm not sure what your point is - perhaps you are surprised by how many he had agreed on Friday 15th!

According to PropertyBee, John Minnis sale agreed for the week of the broadcast were Mon 11th = 0, Tue 12th = 0 Wed 13th = 1, Thur 14th = 1, Fri 15th = 13 for a total of 15.

But the figures for sales agreed that John Minnis quoted during the broadcast were specifically for the 3 weeks before the week of the broadcast, so none of these 15 could have been included.

Dont know how soon they mark sale agreed on the web site. We wait to we have the booking deposit and Solicitor details. This can take from a day to a week as purchasers sometimes price around for Solicitors etc. I expect the 15 houses that changed to Sale Agreed on Friday 15th were not sold on Friday 15th. I would expect they were sold during the week and perhaps even some from the previous week. For that reason I would assume almost all of these 15 were included in his sales figures on the 14th. It is unlikely that he sold them all on the 15th, and this looks like a 'batch' update of the system.

[lolacarrascal]

Dont know how soon they mark sale agreed on the web site. We wait to we have the booking deposit and Solicitor details. This can take from a day to a week as purchasers sometimes price around for Solicitors etc. I expect the 15 houses that changed to Sale Agreed on Friday 15th were not sold on Friday 15th. I would expect they were sold during the week and perhaps even some from the previous week. For that reason I would assume almost all of these 15 were included in his sales figures on the 14th. It is unlikely that he sold them all on the 15th, and this looks like a 'batch' update of the system.

I would have thought that buyers in the resale market generally insist on the house being withdrawn once the sale is agreed, with EAs then updating the listing on PN within a day or two. Certainly that is what I would insist on so I doubt very much if all of these 15 were sold the week before the broadcast. Even if this were the case, those recorded on PropertyBee as having been sale agreed 3 weeks ago would have been actually sold 4 weeks ago by your logic and so wouldn't have been counted in his figures. You can add in the 15 if you want to be generous to Minnis but you must also then take out the 7 recorded sale agreed for 3 weeks ago. So the figure becomes 25, still a long way from the 51 claimed.

The wider issue here, alluded to in another thread, is the lack of transparency in the whole process with regard to sale prices, nos. etc If there was more openness, then any figures quoted by an EA could be easily verified and would not arouse suspicion. In my view, John Minnis clumsy attempt to talk the market up has just reinforced the stereotypical perception that the general public has of estate agents.

An old teacher of mine used to tell me that it wasn't that he didn't trust me, it was just that he didn't want to have to. Its a mantra that has served me well.

[BelfastVI]

I would have thought that buyers in the resale market generally insist on the house being withdrawn once the sale is agreed, with EAs then updating the listing on PN within a day or two. Certainly that is what I would insist on so I doubt very much if all of these 15 were sold the week before the broadcast. Even if this were the case, those recorded on PropertyBee as having been sale agreed 3 weeks ago would have been actually sold 4 weeks ago by your logic and so wouldn't have been counted in his figures. You can add in the 15 if you want to be generous to Minnis but you must also then take out the 7 recorded sale agreed for 3 weeks ago. So the figure becomes 25, still a long way from the 51 claimed.

The wider issue here, alluded to in another thread, is the lack of transparency in the whole process with regard to sale prices, nos. etc If there was more openness, then any figures quoted by an EA could be easily verified and would not arouse suspicion. In my view, John Minnis clumsy attempt to talk the market up has just reinforced the stereotypical perception that the general public has of estate agents.

An old teacher of mine used to tell me that it wasn't that he didn't trust me, it was just that he didn't want to have to. Its a mantra that has served me well.

I agree and would hold what estate agents say at a similar value of a second hand car dealer. I make no attempt of that. I just didn't agree that the 15 houses that went 'Sale Agreed' two days later could be excluded from the number. I dont know the guy and cannot comment on his trust worthiness. But none of us know.

[vman7]

a friend of mine just had a ,mortgage approved for a house in portadown but has yet to sign papers for the house. he showed me it on PN and it has already went to sale agreed even though he has yet to sign papers and is having second thoughts about going through with the property

Make of this what u will......

[lolacarrascal]

Going to report on John's figures for a while - just to keep him honest. It's a pity we still don't have the TDGTTS weekly reports on this - it was a very useful source of information.

John doesn't seem to have had a particularly good week, only 5 went sale agreed and 2 that were previously agreed were relisted for sale again.

Has the (mis)reported spring bounce petered out already?

Edited April 23, 2011 by lolacarrascal

[lolacarrascal]

Perhaps unsurprisingly, not a good week to go sale agreed - just 1 for John this week with 1 sale agreed relisted again for sale (previous figures adjusted accordingly).

[lolacarrascal]

Better week for John this week - sale agreed nos. surged ahead with an increase of 500% over last weeks figures! (in reality up by 4 from 1 to 5). There were no previously sale agreed relisted for sale this week.

Two of the 5 new sale agreed were new builds. I noted that one of these was listed and went sale agreed on the same day according to PropertyBee - one could speculate that in actual fact it was agreed and then listed on PropertyNews as sale agreed just to keep the sales figures up. The other had a price change to POA and then went sale agreed on the same day - again one could speculate that this was a tactic to avoid disclosing the actual reduction in price that was negotiated by the buyer to secure the sale.

Anyone any experience of these or similar practices being adopted by EAs or other VIs?