Home Prices Probably Had Biggest 12-Month Drop In A Year

[Realistbear]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-22/home-prices-in-u-s-probably-posted-biggest-decline-in-year.html

U.S. Home Prices Probably Had Biggest 12-Month Drop in a Year

By Bob "Robert" Willis - Feb 22, 2011 5:00 AM GMT

Residential real-estate prices dropped in the 12 months to December by the most in a year, a sign the U.S. housing market is struggling even as the rest of the economy recovers, economists said before a report today.

The S&P/Case-Shiller index of home values in 20 cities fell 2.4 percent, the biggest year-over-year decrease since December 2009, according to the median forecast of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Another report may show consumer confidence fell this month from the highest level in almost three years.

Same size bubble, same underpinning by LIAR LOANS, same kinds of job losses (almost), same group of Banksters.....

How much longer can the government and their bankster chums keep outr market from dropping US-style (50% or so from peak SO FAR)?

IMO, we should start to see some action by the end of the 2nd Q as job losses filter through and higher rates begin to land on the doormats of the sheeple (regardless of Merv's vigilance/inaction).

[richc]

Same size bubble, same underpinning by LIAR LOANS, same kinds of job losses (almost), same group of Banksters.....

How much longer can the government and their bankster chums keep outr market from dropping US-style (50% or so from peak SO FAR)?

The rate of inflation is certainly not the same, nor the increase in the level of taxation. Most wage earners in the UK have taken a 5%-10% cut in pay in comparison to workers in the US, while taxes have gone up between VAT and the increase in income taxes in the UK, as American taxes have gone down (someone's gotta pay for SMI and HB). In the US, homeowners are paying the price for over-paying on houses. In the UK, everyone except property speculators are paying the price.

[the_fluid]

In the UK, everyone except property speculators are paying the price.

And that is the biggest problem to the nation moving forward

[Lepista]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-22/home-prices-in-u-s-probably-posted-biggest-decline-in-year.html

U.S. Home Prices Probably Had Biggest 12-Month Drop in a Year

By Bob "Robert" Willis - Feb 22, 2011 5:00 AM GMT

Residential real-estate prices dropped in the 12 months to December by the most in a year, a sign the U.S. housing market is struggling even as the rest of the economy recovers, economists said before a report today.

The S&P/Case-Shiller index of home values in 20 cities fell 2.4 percent, the biggest year-over-year decrease since December 2009, according to the median forecast of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Another report may show consumer confidence fell this month from the highest level in almost three years.

Same size bubble, same underpinning by LIAR LOANS, same kinds of job losses (almost), same group of Banksters.....

How much longer can the government and their bankster chums keep outr market from dropping US-style (50% or so from peak SO FAR)?

IMO, we should start to see some action by the end of the 2nd Q as job losses filter through and higher rates begin to land on the doormats of the sheeple (regardless of Merv's vigilance/inaction).

Are you wavering again, RB?

[Realistbear]

Are you wavering again, RB?

IMO, we should start to see some action by the end of the 2nd Q as job losses filter through and higher rates begin to land on the doormats of the sheeple (regardless of Merv's vigilance/inaction).

[Reck B]

America has accepted the ugly truth, are taking the punishment and as such have light at the end of the tunnel.

The UK, foolishly remain adamant that pain can be avoided. The pain will now be worse and felt by everyone. We're all in this together remember. Stupid *****.

[Realistbear]

America has accepted the ugly truth, are taking the punishment and as such have light at the end of the tunnel.

The UK, foolishly remain adamant that pain can be avoided. The pain will now be worse and felt by everyone. We're all in this together remember. Stupid *****.

This is my view. As they scramble for ways to keep the PONZI going it is only adding to the grief. Better to get it over with and start rebuilding from a fresh base that is REGULATED to preven the lite-touch Gordonism that led us to where we are today.

[Fromage Frais]

And that is the biggest problem to the nation moving forward

+1

Someone in charge is going to realise soon that in capitalism someone has to loose.

When you buy a business in 2007

Your takings go down 30%

you go bankrupt

The administrators run the business

The answer is

a) Put it on for the price that was paid at the peak for years without changing the price

Put is to auction to discover the price

c) reduce the price gradually over time.

I am finding too many in the "a" camp at the moment so i will not invest.

Business rates are pretty shocking also and like the rents seem out of date in many cases.

Interest rate rises will boost the real (doing work, rather than balance sheet number) economy by forcing negotiation and compromise.

[Reck B]

This is my view. As they scramble for ways to keep the PONZI going it is only adding to the grief. Better to get it over with and start rebuilding from a fresh base that is REGULATED to preven the lite-touch Gordonism that led us to where we are today.

Gordonism, I like it. (the term, not the actual economic policy)

How about Gordian?

Keynsian

Austrian

Gordian

[red]

America has accepted the ugly truth, are taking the punishment and as such have light at the end of the tunnel.

The UK, foolishly remain adamant that pain can be avoided. The pain will now be worse and felt by everyone. We're all in this together remember. Stupid *****.

I agree - and I think it's something to do with our property-mad philosophy:

"You can't go wrong with bricks & mortar / renting is for second class scum / prices only ever go up / etc..."

We have convinced ourselves that the 'norm' is to see prices rising YoY - it's our pension, after all - and when they fall it's panic stations.

[WageslaveX14]

As Bob Willis predicted: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-22/home-prices-in-20-u-s-cities-declined-2-4-from-year-earlier.html

With all the revolutions caused by QE2, will the Bernank feel that he cannot resort to QE3 to arrest further 'asset' price falls?

Edited February 22, 2011 by WageslaveX14

[SirGaz]

Having been in the USA at the start of the crash I would guess we seem to be anything from 18 months to 30 months behind, its starting to feel very similar here to how it felt over there 3rd and 4th quarter 2008.

[Caveat Mortgagor]

Hmmmm, not sure what there is to get excited / het up about RB.

The articke says the YoY figure is the worst (or best from a hpc point of view) it has been for a year! It then quantifies that drop by saying it is -2.4%.

We have indices that been heading steadily downwards for the last 12 months and have turned neagtive YoY. I would say there isnt much difference between over there and over here!

Edited February 22, 2011 by Caveat Mortgagor

[swissy_fit]

Hmmmm, not sure what there is to get excited / het up about RB.

The articke says the YoY figure is the worst (or best from a hpc point of view) it has been for a year! It then quantifies that drop by saying it is -2.4%.

We have indices that been heading steadily downwards for the last 12 months and have turned neagtive YoY. I would say there isnt much difference between over there and over here!

except that the fall from peak is about 10% in good areas here, 25% in worse areas.

Over there it's 70% in the worse areas.

[billybong]

Because it's Treaure Island and housing is the government's favourite/only toy.

Edited February 22, 2011 by billybong

[The Pale Rider]

Gordonism, I like it. (the term, not the actual economic policy)

How about Gordian?

Keynsian

Austrian

Gordian

Who can loose the Gordian Knot?

[Deckard]

except that the fall from peak is about 10% in good areas here, 25% in worse areas.

Over there it's 70% in the worse areas.

Exactly.

Bloomberg Table

============================================================

1-months 3-months 1-year 2-years 3-years

earlier earlier earlier earlier earlier

============================================================

US Composite-20 -0.96% -3.29% -2.38% -5.39% -23.00%

------------------------------------------------------------

Washington DC 0.33% -0.11% 4.13% 6.05% -14.73%

Boston -0.14% -2.39% -0.81% -0.33% -7.32%

Dallas -0.24% -2.43% -3.56% -0.72% -5.11%

Cleveland -0.39% -3.90% -3.98% -5.21% -10.99%

Miami -0.49% -1.74% -3.73% -13.27% -38.24%

Charlotte -0.66% -2.44% -4.41% -7.99% -14.64%

San Diego -0.69% -2.13% 1.71% 4.48% -21.48%

Denver -0.74% -2.54% -2.44% -1.30% -5.25%

Atlanta -0.90% -6.08% -8.01% -11.58% -22.91%

============================================================

1-months 3-months 1-year 2-years 3-years

earlier earlier earlier earlier earlier

============================================================

New York -0.90% -3.77% -2.32% -8.50% -16.94%

San Francisco -1.04% -4.02% -0.40% 4.40% -28.21%

Las Vegas -1.10% -1.68% -4.69% -24.29% -49.26%

Portland -1.21% -4.21% -7.82% -12.79% -24.25%

Los Angeles -1.32% -2.49% -0.23% -0.24% -26.62%

Minneapolis -1.33% -5.31% -5.30% -7.28% -24.81%

Chicago -1.43% -5.53% -7.39% -14.07% -26.35%

Phoenix -1.67% -3.79% -8.34% -16.81% -45.06%

Seattle -2.03% -4.39% -5.99% -13.42% -24.98%

Detroit -2.34% -6.60% -9.14% -18.49% -36.18%

Tampa -2.57% -4.59% -6.21% -16.53% -34.93%

============================================================

[6538]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-22/home-prices-in-u-s-probably-posted-biggest-decline-in-year.html

U.S. Home Prices Probably Had Biggest 12-Month Drop in a Year

By Bob "Robert" Willis - Feb 22, 2011 5:00 AM GMT

Residential real-estate prices dropped in the 12 months to December by the most in a year, a sign the U.S. housing market is struggling even as the rest of the economy recovers, economists said before a report today.

The S&P/Case-Shiller index of home values in 20 cities fell 2.4 percent, the biggest year-over-year decrease since December 2009, according to the median forecast of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Another report may show consumer confidence fell this month from the highest level in almost three years.

Same size bubble, same underpinning by LIAR LOANS, same kinds of job losses (almost), same group of Banksters.....

How much longer can the government and their bankster chums keep outr market from dropping US-style (50% or so from peak SO FAR)?

IMO, we should start to see some action by the end of the 2nd Q as job losses filter through and higher rates begin to land on the doormats of the sheeple (regardless of Merv's vigilance/inaction).

Similar but not the same. In the US they use foreclosure rather than possession and sale. You can simply hand your keys to the lender and walk away and not be purseued for any balance (I'm 90% sure of that last bit anyway). It doesn't work like that here so there is less incentive for people to do it.

Also, I don't think lenders want to repossess as it's not sensible financially. They are in the business of lending money and their business models do not provide for handling lots of repos so it costs them significant amounts of money to do so. In addition, the more they repossess the more it floods the market with properties and so the lower it drives prices so the next ones they possess they will get less for. Interest rates re still low so many people aren't yet having the problems they will be having if rates climb.

[Deckard]

From the full S&P report:

Nationally, home prices are back to their 2003Q1 levels

HPC full on

[richc]

Similar but not the same. In the US they use foreclosure rather than possession and sale. You can simply hand your keys to the lender and walk away and not be purseued for any balance (I'm 90% sure of that last bit anyway). It doesn't work like that here so there is less incentive for people to do it.

The ability to walk away from a mortgage only holds true in some states in the US. Loans in Florida are not "no recourse" loans, i.e. you can't walk away, but that hasn't prevented Florida from seeing some of the biggest falls in house prices. The ability to walk away from a loan is over emphasized in explaining US house price falls.

[Deckard]

The ability to walk away from a mortgage only holds true in some states in the US. Loans in Florida are not "no recourse" loans, i.e. you can't walk away, but that hasn't prevented Florida from seeing some of the biggest falls in house prices. The ability to walk away from a loan is over emphasized in explaining US house price falls.

+1

Miami -38% in the last 3 yrs, see table above

[long time lurking]

A bit of topic but I`m starting to see a lot more repoes coming on the market in my neck of the woods, just wondering if any one else is seeing the same as there was virtually none last year but since the end of January the number have grown steadily

[6538]

The ability to walk away from a mortgage only holds true in some states in the US. Loans in Florida are not "no recourse" loans, i.e. you can't walk away, but that hasn't prevented Florida from seeing some of the biggest falls in house prices. The ability to walk away from a loan is over emphasized in explaining US house price falls.

Do you have any links to how Florida mortgages work? How similar are they to UK ones and what level of liability do they carry? In the UK a lender can start legal action to recover any remaining balance up to 12 years after the property gets reposessed. On top of that, do lenders actively pursue this or do they just hardly bother trying to get back losses for whatever reason?

[Caveat Mortgagor]

except that the fall from peak is about 10% in good areas here, 25% in worse areas.

Over there it's 70% in the worse areas.

What you say is oh so very true, but not relevant to what the op said.

The title of the thread says U.S. market is dropping at fastest rate fior 12 months.... so why not here?

I merely pointed out that what he asks for in the thread title is already happening. There was no mention of where we are from peak.

The reason I did so was because poor old RB has had a spell of flitting from bear to bull and sometimes he isnt sure what to think. I was just making sure he was fully appraised of the facts, as no one else had pointed out that what he wants is already happening.

[iamdamosuzuki]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-22/home-prices-in-u-s-probably-posted-biggest-decline-in-year.html

U.S. Home Prices Probably Had Biggest 12-Month Drop in a Year

By Bob "Robert" Willis - Feb 22, 2011 5:00 AM GMT

Residential real-estate prices dropped in the 12 months to December by the most in a year, a sign the U.S. housing market is struggling even as the rest of the economy recovers, economists said before a report today.

The S&P/Case-Shiller index of home values in 20 cities fell 2.4 percent, the biggest year-over-year decrease since December 2009, according to the median forecast of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Another report may show consumer confidence fell this month from the highest level in almost three years.

Same size bubble, same underpinning by LIAR LOANS, same kinds of job losses (almost), same group of Banksters.....

How much longer can the government and their bankster chums keep outr market from dropping US-style (50% or so from peak SO FAR)?

IMO, we should start to see some action by the end of the 2nd Q as job losses filter through and higher rates begin to land on the doormats of the sheeple (regardless of Merv's vigilance/inaction).

no, no no, no. We're bucking the trend. House prices only ever go up in Britain. We're an island. It's all about affordability. People won't sell at low prices. Have you any idea how much uni fees are these days? The market is robust. We're coming out of the recession. There won't be a double dip. Sellers demand the profit they expected. The Daily Mail is on fire. It's time to stop apologising. London can only ever rise. It's all about innovation.STOP TALKING THE MARKET DOWN. LETS GET THE BANKS LENDING.

EEEEEDIE EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEAAAADIEEEEEE!!!!