Channel 4 Homes Forum

[Grime- skint wouldbe ftb]

Well i dont think it will happen.We would all like things cheaper but it does not happen.If prices were to drop drastically which they wont then sellers would take their homes off the market it stands to sense really .Th eonly houses that would be for sale are those that had to be for whatever unseen reasons ( a death etc) so there would be less choice more buyers and hey presto the prices are back up, supply and demand!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Mmmm.

I think maybe you need to do a bit more research before offering such bizarre opinions.

[Jason]

Well i dont think it will happen.We would all like things cheaper but it does not happen.If prices were to drop drastically which they wont then sellers would take their homes off the market it stands to sense really .Th eonly houses that would be for sale are those that had to be for whatever unseen reasons ( a death etc) so there would be less choice more buyers and hey presto the prices are back up, supply and demand!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think you understand the size of the 'new' BTL crowd, the Interest Only purchasers and the 'lets use my house as a cash machine' MEWers.

The BTLs are not financing themseleves, theirs yeilds are lower than the mortgage rate. This basically means it is not an investment. The only way this group of people make money is for houses to rise in price - this makes them speculators. AND house prices have not risen in value - how long can they support this expenditure?

The IO group (this is obvious) are not repaying the capital - negative equity is a major threat them. You have to ask why they are on an IO mortgage, if they can't afford a repayment mortgage how can they afford all the increase in house ownership (council tax, gas, elec etc etc etc).

MEWers - well some sensible ones will be fine, ok, but alot have increased their mortgage to high levels. Can they cope with higher prices?

AND (drum beat please) how will all these cope if they lost their jobs? Unemployment is rising (for ever 100 people out of work 10 further people loose their jobs).

[iamconfusedagain]

Well i dont think it will happen.We would all like things cheaper but it does not happen.If prices were to drop drastically which they wont then sellers would take their homes off the market it stands to sense really .Th eonly houses that would be for sale are those that had to be for whatever unseen reasons ( a death etc) so there would be less choice more buyers and hey presto the prices are back up, supply and demand!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Your comments could have been made in the late 80's. Transactions fell like you mentioned, but prices did not return to previous levels for 10 years

There could be arguements for stagnation etc. but that is not a good one. The market is(was) about speculation, the demand has dropped and supply seems quite high if you look on most EA's books

[HPCheese]

Yes  i suppose i am a Bull so that makes 4 ! I have scoured through the postings which are bearish and have to say - i dont agree with the HPC talk! ( dare i say i dont agree -YES!).

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I hope you hang around for a while, we might all learn something from each other. I'd also encourage other people from the C4 forum to 'jump on board' as we're practically cousins. Possibly cousins in the middle of a family feud, but we've all got an interest in the property market and shoudn't be back-patting people we agree with all the time.

[Guest Bart of Darkness]

'nodumsunreader' is border-line deranged but can certainly liven-up an otherwise boring thread.

Actually I've worked out the true meaning of nodumsunreader's name.

I used to think it meant that he read The Sun but wasn't dumb.

Now I realise it just means that he's not a Sun reader!

[kissmyb]

Mmmm.

I think maybe you need to do a bit more research before offering such bizarre opinions.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Well the same opinion i have of a HPC , people have been predicting one for a while.Houses are still selling people still moving.Life goes on !Just because it happen in the 90's does not mean it will happen again! Does this mean that there will be the plague and the great fire of London?

Economically things are very different from the 90's .

And take for instance you theory/prediction/wish of a HPC were to come true do you honestly believe there would be as anyhouses for sale ?I think not ! There would be less homes for sale and sooo many people going for one house at a low price , that hey presto gazump , gazump , gazump.So in reality Prices would soon go back up.Regarding your point of doing research i am buying at present and selling !- and have no problems !I popped on to this site as ive been on Ch4 homes and have heard this site mentioned.

[Casual Observer]

Well the same opinion i have of  a HPC , people have been predicting one for a while.Houses are still selling people still moving.Life goes on !Just because it happen in the 90's does not mean it will happen again! Does this mean that there will be the plague and the great fire of London?

Economically things are very different from the 90's .

And take for instance you theory/prediction/wish of a HPC were to come true do you honestly believe there would be as anyhouses for sale ?I think not ! There would be less homes for sale and sooo many people going for one house at a low price , that hey presto gazump , gazump , gazump.So in reality Prices would soon go back up.Regarding your point of doing research i am buying at present and selling !- and have no problems !I popped on to this site as ive been on Ch4 homes and have heard this site mentioned.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Kissmyb. Why do I see properties selling for an average of 20% less than this time last year then?

There's a hell of a lot of reasons why prices will fall further: exit of amateur BTLs and reduced disposable incomes mostly. Don't forget that from this year graduates will be facing the prospect of repaying abot 30k of debt when they graduate. And that's 50% of the population if Blair hits his target.

Edited September 14, 2005 by Casual Observer

[2005]

!Just because it happen in the 90's does not mean it will happen again! Does this mean that there will be the plague and the great fire of London?

Actually a flu epidemic (similar to that in the 1920's) would kill millions and cost billions of dollars. Not the plague but a disaster for the economy. And while we may not see another great fire of London I think recent events such as 9/11, foot and mouth and 7/7 highlight just how much a disaster beyond our own control can impact on the economy.

Life is full potential pitfalls..it is good housekeeping to prepare for these, that is why people have life insurance/savings etc.

The question is..could our economy cope with an unexpected event..if not then this is just poor housekeeping and we could come to regret not saving for a rainy day.

[murpaul]

Heres a quote from another part of C4 property forum:

'Well, firstly invest in an area miles away from where you are and you know nothing about the local rental market. Make sure you overpay on the price, as you want to guarantee you get the properdee. Dont speak to local EA's about rental prices or look in the local paper to get the market rentals value.

Spend loads on the cosmetics of the house so that you price out the average renter and limit your market to the rich and stupid. Do exactly what Phil and Kirsty tell you, thats a guaranteed way to suceed.

Oh, and ignore all the data which tell you the property values are falling, and ignore the maths which tell you that on the market rent for most properdee's in most areas will not even cover the mortgage without taking into account void periods and maintainence, and ignore the possibility that interest rates may rise leaving you bankrupt, eating cat food in your retirement.

Alternatively, start another type of business that will offer better returns for less risk, like becoming a baliff? IMO there will be a real shortage in this sector over the next years, evicting stupid people who thought property was a surefire way to make money without any reference to the wider economic conditions.'

Take it out of that!

Love the way he says "properdee". Perhaps we should all use that for a laugh?

link: http://community.channel4.com/groupee/foru...47/m/6340008803

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The truth is out, twas me.

[ftbSean]

Well the same opinion i have of  a HPC , people have been predicting one for a while.Houses are still selling people still moving.Life goes on !.............................. I popped on to this site as ive been on Ch4 homes and have heard this site mentioned.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Unfortunately you have caught us at a time when we no longer feel the need to convince ourselves and others over the minor arguments...The changes are happening now and predictions are being confirmed. Why not listen to your instinct; the nagging doubt that brought you to the other side. Only pride stands in your way.

So you have "popped on to this site" have you? Presumably to return to ch4 with tales of lunacy?

Do I look bovvered?

[kissmyb]

No,

This is a better solution;

Dont buy your own property ! Dont get a mortgage !

Rent someone elses property and pay their mortgage

[RTM]

No,

This is a better solution;

Dont buy your own property ! Dont get a mortgage !

Rent someone elses property and pay their mortgage 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I agree with that, for now at least. But my rent does not cover my landlords mortgage but it helps.

[kissmyb]

Unfortunately you have caught us at a time when we no longer feel the need to convince ourselves and others over the minor arguments...The changes are happening now and predictions are being confirmed. Why not listen to your instinct; the nagging doubt that brought you to the other side. Only pride stands in your way.

So you have "popped on to this site" have you? Presumably to return to ch4 with tales of lunacy?

Do I look bovvered? 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Oh so the HPC is amongst us - really , on what planet?

[backtoparents]

No,

This is a better solution;

Dont buy your own property ! Dont get a mortgage !

Rent someone elses property and pay their mortgage 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Hello!

I prefer to think of it as subletting at a discount. Recent BTLs on interest only are paying rent to the bank, and taking all the risk. Bank wins, I win, BTL clings to hope of capital appreciation, so keeps rents low. If the local economy goes to the wall, I rent somewhere else whereever the work is. I'm sure it would be different if I had a family, schools to worry about, etc. Then I can see some merit to purchase.

What was that in Layer Cake? "The secret to being a good business man, is being a good middle man." Some recent BTLs are finding themselves being very poor middlesheeple.......

/G

[doogie]

Well i dont think it will happen.We would all like things cheaper but it does not happen.If prices were to drop drastically which they wont then sellers would take their homes off the market it stands to sense really .Th eonly houses that would be for sale are those that had to be for whatever unseen reasons ( a death etc) so there would be less choice more buyers and hey presto the prices are back up, supply and demand!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think you need to have a good think about what actually affects demand.

The two biggest factors that affect demand for property are:

1) the availability of financing

2) the perceived future performance of property as an investment class when compared with alternative investments (including the stock market and the building society)

Don't make the mistake of thinking that insufficient supply ever caused the 1995-2005 property boom. Excess demand caused by the above two factors were the key causes.

Now that in most areas you can earn better yields by sticking your money in a risk-free, hassle-free building society account than you can with property, a major source of demand has evaporated, hence the buyers' market we now observe. Furthermore, as bankruptcies and repossessions rise, I expect banks to tighten their lending in the future, which will further reduce demand.

[Take me to the cleaners]

No,

This is a better solution;

Dont buy your own property ! Dont get a mortgage !

Rent someone elses property and pay their mortgage 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So whats the difference? Buying with interest only just seems imho to cut out the middleman - the landlord. It is just so obvious at the moment - rent well, save hard and when it feels right buy. At least whilst you are saving and renting you don;t have to pay for repairs, buildings insurance, garden maintenance and all the rest of that owner occupier sh!t.

Tell you the truth I'd rather give my money to someone I can meet in person and assess what they're like. Who knows who gets your money if it goes to the bank.

[dapperdave]

Oh so the HPC is amongst us - really , on what planet?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Have you not seen hometrack's index on house prices? Down 14 months in a row is it now? Its not yet a crash but its not looking good for the bulls.

[kissmyb]

Have you not seen hometrack's index on house prices? Down 14 months in a row is it now? Its not yet a crash but its not looking good for the bulls.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Really a crash must be on it's way then!

I believe you - really! But seriously be real One minute you bears believe one report but if it comes to any report saying House prices rise , you immediatly dismiss it.And if there is a ickle fall as you say it's not exactly a crash is it!

As for looking good well houses are still selling FTB's still buying - in my area anyway.