FTBagain Posted September 1, 2005 Share Posted September 1, 2005 Declan Curry on BBC news this morning @ about 7:20, let it slip that the US Coast Guard were reporting that there were abourt "20 oil rigs missing" in the Gulf of Mexico. If true this is huge! $100 pb any time soon! Interesting that one else is saying anything about it. I wonder if it is being hushed up whilst damage limitation messures (such as the US buying up evey drop on petrol on the market!) are put in place. Did Declan repeat that little gem later? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scooter Posted September 1, 2005 Share Posted September 1, 2005 Declan Curry on BBC news this morning @ about 7:20, let it slip that the US Coast Guard were reporting that there were abourt "20 oil rigs missing" in the Gulf of Mexico.If true this is huge! $100 pb any time soon! Interesting that one else is saying anything about it. I wonder if it is being hushed up whilst damage limitation messures (such as the US buying up evey drop on petrol on the market!) are put in place. Did Declan repeat that little gem later? <{POST_SNAPBACK}> He is just wrong-about half a dozen were adrift, largest of which was owned by Diamond Offshore circa $310m, and are now being recovered by tugs. The implication that 20 rigs just disappeared bermuda Triangle style is just sensationalist rubbish I think... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarecrow Posted September 1, 2005 Share Posted September 1, 2005 I've read about this on several different sources so I do not think it is being hushed up. Katrina is likely to have a "more lasting impact on refinery production and the distribution system" than previous hurricanes, the US Department of Energy said. Oil companies are currently assessing the damage and many oil rigs and platforms are missing, while a number of major refineries have closed. "The Gulf Coast is a prime supplier through pipelines now shut due to lack of power and ocean-going barges unable to load from ports eradicated by the storm," said David Knapp, an analyst at Energyintel. "The loss of critical gasoline flows... will stress markets over the next few weeks," he added. The US Minerals Management Service estimated that 95% of the Gulf of Mexico's oil output was out of service following the hurricane, as well as more than 80% of natural gas production. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4203414.stm It will take a while for the authorities to work out how much damage has been caused Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FTBagain Posted September 1, 2005 Author Share Posted September 1, 2005 (edited) If you consider that rig losses are the extreme, then it is highly likely that there will be a distribution of damage across the 'fleet' ranging from severe to slight. All of which will delay the rigs coming back on stream. There are going to be some major issues here. One company has reported that there is a fire on the surface where its rig used to be! Thank god they all appear to have evacuated the crews! Edited September 1, 2005 by FTBagain Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smurf1976 Posted September 1, 2005 Share Posted September 1, 2005 Missing, floating or whatever. The point is they are out of production and that's what counts as far as the global economy is concerned. The disruption to pipelines, ports and refineries is potentially very serious if it can't be restored soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarecrow Posted September 1, 2005 Share Posted September 1, 2005 I thought this was quite an interesting article on the potential economic impact of the hurricane. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marina Posted September 1, 2005 Share Posted September 1, 2005 If you consider that rig losses are the extreme, then it is highly likely that there will be a distribution of damage across the 'fleet' ranging from severe to slight. All of which will delay the rigs coming back on stream. There are going to be some major issues here.One company has reported that there is a fire on the surface where its rig used to be! Thank god they all appear to have evacuated the crews! <{POST_SNAPBACK}> I feel sure the crews would have evacuated themselves. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FTBagain Posted September 1, 2005 Author Share Posted September 1, 2005 Smurf The disruption to pipelines, ports and refineries is potentially very serious if it can't be restored soon It won't be. My dad used to design oil rigs for a living so I know a bit about it (I will have a chat with tonight about and find out some definitve info.) but with my basic knowledge, even if the rig is still float there is the difficult problem of capturing it, towing back and reconnecting it to the well head which is a valve system on the sea bed. None of that easy and there is likely to be a shortage of big tugs with all the work (and possible losses amougst the tug fleet) and it assumes the rig and more importantly the well head is undamaged. Most unlikely. I briefly worked for a small company that used to design anchor winches for rigs. In heavy weather it was not unknown for the winches to get torn of the decks! So if nothing else they are going to have to inspect the rigs for hid damage or they will risk further damage and loss of life! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FTBagain Posted September 1, 2005 Author Share Posted September 1, 2005 Marina I feel sure the crews would have evacuated themselves. The rigs are only equipped with life boats for self evacuation, just like on a ferry, and I would not want to be floating around in one of them in a Hurricane! The rigs rely on outside support from speciallist support ships and helicopters owned and operated by their own oil company or sub contractors. One company, BP, I think evacuated about 4000 staff and there are many more companies operating in the Gulf of Maxico. That is alot of people! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backtoparents Posted September 1, 2005 Share Posted September 1, 2005 MarinaThe rigs are only equipped with life boats for self evacuation, just like on a ferry, and I would not want to be floating around in one of them in a Hurricane! The rigs rely on outside support from speciallist support ships and helicopters owned and operated by their own oil company or sub contractors. One company, BP, I think evacuated about 4000 staff and there are many more companies operating in the Gulf of Maxico. That is alot of people! <{POST_SNAPBACK}> I think Marina was referring to a bowel movement...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FTBagain Posted September 1, 2005 Author Share Posted September 1, 2005 I think Marina was referring to a bowel movement...... DOH!! Sorry in techie mode. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gooner Posted September 1, 2005 Share Posted September 1, 2005 My dad used to design oil rigs for a living so I know a bit about it (I will have a chat with tonight about and find out some definitve info.) but with my basic knowledge, even if the rig is still float there is the difficult problem of capturing it, towing back and reconnecting it to the well head which is a valve system on the sea bed.<{POST_SNAPBACK}> Normal rig abandonment procedures for semi-subs include decoupling from the 'risers' - these are the pipes that connect the rig to the sub-sea well heads and transport the oil/gas through the water column. This would have happened prior to the crew leaving the ship - rigs are abandoned by helicopter and support boat - it's a big operation, but all (certainly BP's which I can only comment on) were fully evacuated in plenty of time. This is all for the deep water offshore. Some of these rigs would have definately taken on some damage, but I would expect most to be ready to pump within the week. Whether the pipelines are ready to take the oil and gas is a different matter however as most do not have power on the onshore receiving terminals at the moment. The shallower water fixed rigs in the Gulf are the ones that would've have sustained longer term damage - again, they would have been abandoned (although many are unmanned anyway), but they do not de-couple from the risers as they are fixed and not floating semi-subs like the deep water rigs described above. It's here I would expect the impact to be felt - evidently, Chevron in particular were wacked big-time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Loanshark Posted September 1, 2005 Share Posted September 1, 2005 To put it into perspective there are over 4000 rigs operating in the Gulf of Mexico The real problem is the refineries which the rigs feed. I suspect the US goverment is having to news manage this to stop panic buying in the US i cannot see how they can be uneffected by such a huge temporary loss Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smurf1976 Posted September 1, 2005 Share Posted September 1, 2005 To put it into perspective there are over 4000 rigs operating in the Gulf of MexicoThe real problem is the refineries which the rigs feed. I suspect the US goverment is having to news manage this to stop panic buying in the US i cannot see how they can be uneffected by such a huge temporary loss <{POST_SNAPBACK}> If those refineries aren't up an running pretty soon then keeping the true situation quiet is going to be like trying to hide an elephant under your living room rug. It will get to the point where it just can't be kept from public view - service station tanks literally running dry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beans-on-Toast Britain Posted September 1, 2005 Share Posted September 1, 2005 Declan Curry on BBC news this morning @ about 7:20, let it slip that the US Coast Guard were reporting that there were abourt "20 oil rigs missing" in the Gulf of Mexico.If true this is huge! $100 pb any time soon! <{POST_SNAPBACK}> European gasoline hit $100/bbl today......... 10ppm, sulfur free, gasoline barges in the trading hub of Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp traded at a fresh high of $845/mt Thursday morning, equating to a value in excess of $100/bbl. European gasoline values continue to skyrocket, climbing nearly $200/mt since Friday. Values in Europe have boomed tracking strong numbers out of the US. Since the European markets returned to work Tuesday from the holiday weekend the market has reacted firmly to the supply interruptions that Hurricane Katrina wreaked in the southern US states. "The US is short and will not be able to produce product for some time yet," one trader said. "People are willing to pay big numbers in Europe for the chance to send gasoline to the US. Whatever you pay here you will be able to sell for more in the US," the trader added. Sources continued to see potential up-side in European values, saying that traders were still able to hold back product, expecting higher values. With all ARA refineries fully operational, gasoline runs in Europe are being maximised, traders said. The crack to front-month Brent, a basic tool for refiners to assess the worth of refined products relative to crude oil, rose to record high of $33.5/bbl. During the peak of the driving season in 2004 the prompt crack reached a peak of $22/bbl, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FTBagain Posted September 1, 2005 Author Share Posted September 1, 2005 Laonshark To put it into perspective there are over 4000 rigs operating in the Gulf of MexicoThe real problem is the refineries which the rigs feed. Agreed but Forbes quoted the number of rigs as being 591 in the Gulf area, pumping 1.5m bpd. The 20 missing rigs represent the extreme. It is all the other equipment damage, as we have both pointed out that is the problem. This could take far longer to repair if the damage is wide spread and extensive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FTBagain Posted September 1, 2005 Author Share Posted September 1, 2005 Gooner, I believe that they use a hub and spoke system (where a number of production rigs / wells are contected a major rig and all teir product is brought ashore along a single pipe) in the North Sea. Do they use a similar system in the Gulf? If so, could this cause more disruption? My feeling is that it could, especial if the hub rig is severely damaged. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scooter Posted September 1, 2005 Share Posted September 1, 2005 Declan Curry on BBC news this morning @ about 7:20, let it slip that the US Coast Guard were reporting that there were abourt "20 oil rigs missing" in the Gulf of Mexico.If true this is huge! $100 pb any time soon! Interesting that one else is saying anything about it. I wonder if it is being hushed up whilst damage limitation messures (such as the US buying up evey drop on petrol on the market!) are put in place. Did Declan repeat that little gem later? <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Owner Rig/Equipment Status Value Insurance Comments Diamond Offshore Ocean Warwick Aground $14MM $50MM On Daupin Island, AL. Significant damage. Diamond Offshore Ocean Voyager Drifting 9 miles north Transocean Deepwater Nautilus Drifting $700MM Drifted during Ivan too Rowan Rowan-New Orleans Sunk? $7.4MM $8.5MM Other 21 rigs appear ok Royal Dutch Shell Mars Platform Damaged $1.0BB Produces 220K barrels/day = 15% U.S. Gulf output Nobles Energy Jim Thompson Drifting $142MM Drifted 17 miles north. No material damage. ENSCO ENSCO 7500 Drifting $500MM Was listing slightly, but no damage. ENSCO ENSCO 29 Damaged $15MM $7.6MM "Significant damage." Global SantaFe Development Driller I Listing slightly Global SantaFe Arctic 1 Aground near mouth of Mississippi River BP Thunder Horse Stable $1BB Self-insured Valero St. Charles Refinery Shut-down Damaged - No production for 1-2 weeks. PEMEX PSS Chemul Crashed into $70M AL bridge. Destroyed $4M barge. Swift Energy No damage. Surrounding areas = flooding/damage. Newfield "A" Platform Missing Other structures intact. Forest Oil South Pass 24 Damaged Aerial assessment showed damage. Plantation Pipeline No damage. No power though. PAA Pipeline Mobile Bay Dock Loss covered by insurance (subject to deductible). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gooner Posted September 1, 2005 Share Posted September 1, 2005 Gooner,I believe that they use a hub and spoke system (where a number of production rigs / wells are contected a major rig and all teir product is brought ashore along a single pipe) in the North Sea. Do they use a similar system in the Gulf? If so, could this cause more disruption? My feeling is that it could, especial if the hub rig is severely damaged. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> spot-on. They vary in scale, but there are a couple of big systems such as Mardi Gras (irony?) that connects 5 or 6 big developments. Nearer shore there are a number of smaller systems, but without power generation (and receiving terminals) the receiving stations at the end of the pipeline systems cannot transport the product through. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van hoogstraten Posted September 1, 2005 Share Posted September 1, 2005 Are all those LLoyds names going to have to sell their houses again to fund the insurance claims? Isn't that what happens when there is a big disaster like this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim M Posted September 2, 2005 Share Posted September 2, 2005 (edited) Here's two that aren't missing - edited: plus one more that isn't lost, although the bridge it hit is a bit the worse for wear. Edited September 2, 2005 by Tim M Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FTBagain Posted September 2, 2005 Author Share Posted September 2, 2005 Tim M, Amazing pictures. One of the chaps here in the office has just said that 10 ships fully load with fuel are already sailing to the US from Europe! It was on the news last night apparently. I think I'll fill up on the way home tonight before the prices go through the roof! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vivaldo Posted September 2, 2005 Share Posted September 2, 2005 (edited) You bunch of drama queens - the BBC says "Experts believe the impact will be short-lived and will not tip the country [uSA] into recession. Growth of 3.5% to 4% is still expected this year." So there's no need to worry Government news management has kicked in again to stop panic buying, the erosion of consumer confidence and the like. Waited around for the biz news on BBC R4's Today this morning and no mention of any of it. Noticed on the telly that George W and Co seemed more concerned about stopping looting than providing the poor who stayed behind in New Orleans (no money or transport to escape in many cases) with food and water. Well done ITV for showing the reality on the ground. Edited September 2, 2005 by Vivaldo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magictorch Posted September 2, 2005 Share Posted September 2, 2005 BBC say it. Oh it must be true then! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vivaldo Posted September 2, 2005 Share Posted September 2, 2005 Spoke to a nighbour about it all this morning and she said "I never really notice petrol prices I just pay it" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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