Beans-on-Toast Britain

Yep, the old ‘last chance to buy or stay as rental fodder for ever' It looks like the fear will return as the hype picks up, at least in the short term. It’s such bullsh!t that people’s entire financial affairs will be decided on when they decided to buy (or could afford to buy) a house.

Just going by what I read on here. Admittedly, booming is a bit strong, but from this thread there’s a very clear shift in sentiment. Perhaps rebounding would be more appropriate. Take a look at the ‘When is the next phase coming’ thread and summat seems to be happening in London I thought Singapore was a relevant comparison, given both locations are frequented by the bankers and their business-as-usual bonuses. But as I also highlighted, there are some more local features for the reigniting of the bubble. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...howtopic=125639

It would appear the banks are lending for certain things – such as buying back into bubbles. Fukk the real economy though, when there’s proper money to be made on punting. I should also have mentioned one more local factor. The media hype is back on, showing pictures of people queuing to sign up for new launches. This ties in with what is referred to as the kiasu mentality. It’s from a Chinese word for fear, or fear of losing out, but many would say it’s the overriding characteristic of many Singaporeans.

Was interested to read some of the London anecdotes on here yesterday, with the London bubble being pumped back up. Well I guees the hundreds of billions had to go somewhere. So I thought it was worth mentioning Singapore for comparison purposes. It’s fair to say, the market has gone crazy the last few months. At the extreme, the ‘top-end’ newbuilds fell about 50% but by all accounts are back up 50% (ie 75% of bubble values, where prices were more extreme than London). In the mid-range market, which maybe fell 30%, it looks like prices have returned to the early 2008 peaks. The local market -- which is a kind of right-to-buy housing association scheme which caters for 80% of Singaporeans -- fell modestly and has rebounded modestly. Rentals have lagged but after collapsing by 30-50%, have rebounded quite strongly – I’d say at least 20% from the Q1 lows, but probably more now. There's still a lot of empty inventory, but many LLs prefer to leave empty than let 'below market'. No, I don't understand that mentality either. I was very skeptical about it initially, but turns out it is very real. No idea if it’s sustainable and hard to say exactly why this is happening. I imagine the same reasons as other property/equity/commodity markets. So on a wider level...... -Low interest rates (even by Singapore standards) -Liquidity injection from global stimulus packages (banker bonuses going strong) -General return of investment appetite -Concerns over global inflation as a result of QE. ‘Need’ to be in assets. -One significant difference from London is that the currency has been reasonably solid over the last three years, and the government is still in credit. Local(ish) factors -Asian (Chinese) appetite for gambling, and generally more volatile market -Flight to safety, as in safety from the coming global tax clampdown. Singapore is probably the safest place to keep your money/assets in the Asia-Pacific region – as in the government won’t steal or tax it away. Singapore knows it’s finished if it tied to do that. -More Indonesian, Chinese, Indian, even Middle East cash pouring in, and anecdotally, perhaps more European and US money (for the above reasons) -Asian decoupling (China still doing well) being hyped up again, but I don’t see that lasting. -Casino Resorts opening next year are going to attract huge amounts of money (laundering)

Has been mentioned here before, but he has 'things' to pump http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/45602,featur...-richard-brooks Rememebr, he was still a bull in July 2007, when the wheels were already coming off http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle2163758.ece The US economy has passed its low point and while we do not expect it to return to trend growth of 3 per cent plus for another six months or so, all leading indicators suggest that a gradual acceleration is under way But this need not be bearish for equity averages and could be very positive for high-quality companies and markets, which have been left behind by the fads for issuing junk bonds and repackaging low-quality assets. And in June 2007, He just loved the US of A. In fact, the whole world was starting to see it his way In the past few weeks, investors have finally woken up to the argument that this column has been presenting since this time last year: that the present US economic slowdown is not a prelude to recession and, therefore, that the Federal Reserve Board is very unlikely to slash short-term interest rates in the way that bond markets were expecting even a few weeks ago. http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle1945821.ece

Yeah, the climate on the south coast is not bad I always used to think Margaret Moran had "Southampton tan" until I realised she had a fourth home in Granada (Spain that is, not the tv region).

Interesting feature from Al Jazeera, showing the less-educated whites (largely Afrikaans) that had the trappings of middle-class lifestyles on the back of low-level public-sector jobs. Now those are no longer available to them, some have moved to the squatter camps, leaving the suburbs behind. Probably off-topic, although there is a housing angle - a house-swap program with an unusual twist. It's a good job the UK can afford its public sector or who knows what might happen.....

thanks for all the responses, confirming the worst;) I guess the only ‘positive’ is if the local/international banks are separate. Mrs. botb has spoken to her old man again and not only is she still a silly girl, she’s also talking crazy. Austrian banks are as safe as errr, Austrian banks. And even if for some crazy reason they weren’t, the government has guaranteed all of the deposits. I guess she needs to find a different angle!

Basically some money she will inherit (substantial 6 figures in Euros) is tied up in Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank . The money is in a trust and needs her father’s permission to move it. He’s basically told her to stop being such a silly girl and won't even listen. The missus is Austrian, btw Austria has huge exposure to Eastern Europe, so if that goes the Austrian banks follow. Austria's CDS has soared over the last couple of weeks and I think is the number 2 'at risk' in the Euro zone after Ireland now. Here’s what I got sent today from a pal with access to CDS prices, which looks very worrying as of yesterday Raffiesien 5 yr bond cds is up to 425 bps. that's for senior debt. subordinated debt is 712.5 bps Iceland springs to mind! I’m ‘keeping out’ of any family sh!t, but all I’ve suggested that if it was me I would spread the money between five different ‘safe’ banks and five different major currencies/gold. If I can suggest a viable alternative, maybe her old man will see some sense. Granted it's probably a 'small' risk for now, but my reasoning is why take the chance when you don't have to. So to sum up, any ideas on the following please. Cheers 1) does anyone have a recent list of European banks with the lowest CDS (ie safest) that they can post on here. 2) Is the Austrian govt providing any ‘guarantees’ on deposits and up to what level. Although I’ve told her they may be worth sh!t if they all go down 3) Anyone got any insight/thoughts on Austrian general economic situation, because we plan to move there next year. ps I’m quite lucky. I will get a quarter share of a remortgaged semi in a former winner of sh!t towns UK, so have none of the above problems

Not a greenshoots-ometer for the purists, but we’ve not seen a mention of a ‘property hotspot’ for… well I guess since parts of Scotland stopped being hotspots two months ago. “South Ribble and Chorley are property hotspots of the county, with prices rising in both, according to the latest Land Registry figures” But poor old Preston is being left behind. http://www.lep.co.uk/news/City-missing-out...sing.4976772.jp

Interesting, the banks were one step ahead here. Seems pretty unfair though that you don’t have a rental option, but obviously you would only take such a deal if you intended to see out your days in the same house – and retain the right to complain if the deal goes ‘bad’ And I think OP has a good point about the offspring are the ones behind it. Mind you, they’ll be a hell of a lot of ‘lost’ inheritances over the next few years. All those people running up debts with the idea of paying them off when they get to sell granny's '400k' mid-terrace. Oops!

Well clearly they never intended to sell the house at a later date to fund retirement, or they would not have signed up to this deal. I guess it’s a tough feeling that one bad decision meant you missed out on ‘your windfall’ (that all the neighbours got) but that’s too bad. Clearly selling up and buying elsewhere is not an option, but if they really need to move then they can just rent out their current property and use the money to rent elsewhere. Maybe even free up some money if they move to a cheaper/smaller location.

Just doing a clean out of the email box and stumbled across this. It’s dated March 2008, but even more relevant in today’s market. Anyone fancy doing a UK version… Is this the real price ? Is this just fantasy ? Financial landslide No escape from reality Open your eyes And look at your buys and see. I'm now a poor boy High yielding casualty Because I bought it high, watched it blow Rating high, value low Any way the Fed goes, Doesn't really matter to me, to me. Mama - just killed my fund Quoted CDOs instead Pulled the trigger, now it's dead Mama - I had just begun These CDOs have blown it all away Mama - oooh I still wanna buy I sometimes wish I'd never left Goldman at all. I see a little silhouette of a Fed Bernanke! Benanke ! Can you save the whole market ? Monolines and munis - very very frightening ! Super senior, super senior Super senior CDO - magnifico I'm long on subprime, nobody loves me He's long on subprime, CDO fantasy Spare the margin call, don't blame me for all ! Easy come easy go, Will you let me go ? Peloton ! No, we will not let you go ! Let him go Peloton! We will not let you go ! Let him go, Peloton ! We will not let you go ! Let me go ! Will not let you go Let me go (never) Never let you got Let me go Never let me go - ooo No, no, no, no, no, no, no Oh mama mia, mama mia, mama mia, let me go ! S&P had the devil put aside for me for me, for me, for me............. So you think you can fund me and spit in my eye? And then margin call me and leave me to die? Oh - can't do this to me Just gotta get out, just gotta get right outta here Ooh yeah, ooh yeah No price really matters No liquidity Nothing really matters No price really matters to me Anyway the Fed goes...

Just for the record, it’s the (little used) Speakers Corner in Singapore. It’s been a pretty big story here. There’s now some arrangement whereby those over a certain age and below a certain qualification threshold may be eligible for compensation. Essentially, for those educated, they should have known better. Seems pretty unfair because the bonds were sold as a safe place to park your money. But as already mentioned, IRs are very low in Asia and people always looking for something else – especially property bubbles. The speaker does have a heavy accent but after 3.5 years here, I can understand him better than I could make out average London yoof mutterings these days.

Not had any problems myself, but based in Asia I probably miss the peak UK times. I do view HPC alot using the phone (Palm thingy) and it can be a bit slow, but that’s to be expected. Is there anyway the mods could have a ‘mobile version’ of HPC that excludes tag lines (which can be rather long in certain cases;) and the auto cut n paste. A thread would flow well enough without having to scroll through all the repeat stuff, which can make opening threads a slow process. It seems a lot of people repeat an entire message in order to reply to it, even if they’re the first response. Surely people can figure out what you’re replying to:) Anyway, just a suggestion. Not sure how feasible it would be.