I'm Not A Betting Man

[Shrink Proof]

OK, the background is what started as a chat at work today. Colleague (nurse, single mum) announces that she's thinking of buying a house. Plans to borrow some unspecified number of tens of thousands from parents & buy somewhere bigger for her & her daughter. Says that she doesn't actually need to but would really like to.

So yours truly says that IMHO it'd be better to wait a bit before financially extending. We're in the NHS, the public sector cuts are coming, the economy looks fragile, that sort of thing. Not Tin Foil Hat but pitching it as cautious.

At this point the conversation moves up a couple of gears & she announces that I really know nothing about this because "house prices are set to rocket in the next two years", a view broadly supported by the couple of folk listening in. Not that any evidence is actually provided to back up this view. Anyhow, it all gets a bit heated...

So I take out my diary & enter a note for two years hence, reminding myself that I'll check back with her on 24th May 2012.

And putting a tenner on a minimum 20% house price fall by then.

So.....do you reckon my money's safe?

[Pick It Down]

OK, the background is what started as a chat at work today. Colleague (nurse, single mum) announces that she's thinking of buying a house. Plans to borrow some unspecified number of tens of thousands from parents & buy somewhere bigger for her & her daughter. Says that she doesn't actually need to but would really like to.

So yours truly says that IMHO it'd be better to wait a bit before financially extending. We're in the NHS, the public sector cuts are coming, the economy looks fragile, that sort of thing. Not Tin Foil Hat but pitching it as cautious.

At this point the conversation moves up a couple of gears & she announces that I really know nothing about this because "house prices are set to rocket in the next two years", a view broadly supported by the couple of folk listening in. Not that any evidence is actually provided to back up this view. Anyhow, it all gets a bit heated...

So I take out my diary & enter a note for two years hence, reminding myself that I'll check back with her on 24th May 2012.

And putting a tenner on a minimum 20% house price fall by then.

So.....do you reckon my money's safe?

You know what you should do? You're probably going to win this bet, so go and hedge it by buying a place in Middlesbrough.

[Guest absolutezero]

OK, the background is what started as a chat at work today. Colleague (nurse, single mum) announces that she's thinking of buying a house. Plans to borrow some unspecified number of tens of thousands from parents & buy somewhere bigger for her & her daughter. Says that she doesn't actually need to but would really like to.

So yours truly says that IMHO it'd be better to wait a bit before financially extending. We're in the NHS, the public sector cuts are coming, the economy looks fragile, that sort of thing. Not Tin Foil Hat but pitching it as cautious.

At this point the conversation moves up a couple of gears & she announces that I really know nothing about this because "house prices are set to rocket in the next two years", a view broadly supported by the couple of folk listening in. Not that any evidence is actually provided to back up this view. Anyhow, it all gets a bit heated...

So I take out my diary & enter a note for two years hence, reminding myself that I'll check back with her on 24th May 2012.

And putting a tenner on a minimum 20% house price fall by then.

So.....do you reckon my money's safe?

I guarantee a tenner will buy you even less on that date that it does now.

[interestrateripoff]

I've been having a conversation with a colleague at work all she can seem to muster is that "it's global" I ask what's global "a recession", followed by "I've lived under both a Tory and a Labour govt and I know what I prefer".

I then contend that the jobs created have been via deficit spending and it's unsustainable, what I seem not to understand is that govts can borrow money indefinitely and there'll be no repeat of Weimar or Zimbabwe here.

It would seem that a lot of people just don't get the fundamentals, denial is everywhere.

If your both still in work in a few years time it will certainly be interesting. Maybe she'll continue to afford the payments and it won't end it tears.

[needsleep]

Your money will be safe.

People are massively in denial. My partner works in the NHS too and was talking to a fellow nurse at work. With a kid on the way this lass has just got an offer in on a £250k house with a mortgage that will be just shy of £200k. This girl's partner works in the NHS too in a non-frontline position. It looks like an absolute recipe for disaster.

[plummet expert]

[so.....do you reckon my money's safe?

Yes, of course! Why not offer her a credit default swap or a leveraged short investment instead? so much more fun.

A friend of ours who had their house 'valued' by agents in 2007 had it done again very recently. Interesting to find they were told it was over £100k less than before and 'you may be lucky to get that in this market'.

If you are a buyer Ea's will say the market is improving slowly, but not a seller be! They will tell you something much nearer the truth, which is that the market is fading quickly under the weight of new property coming on the market and slowing buyer interest. Hmmmmmmh.

[DabHand]

So I take out my diary & enter a note for two years hence, reminding myself that I'll check back with her on 24th May 2012.

And putting a tenner on a minimum 20% house price fall by then.

So.....do you reckon my money's safe?

If you want the full HPC retard response l would say well done for arranging what could be your last proper meal. Nice glass of Chianti to go with that sir?

[housepricecrash]

OK, the background is what started as a chat at work today. Colleague (nurse, single mum) announces that she's thinking of buying a house. Plans to borrow some unspecified number of tens of thousands from parents & buy somewhere bigger for her & her daughter. Says that she doesn't actually need to but would really like to.

So yours truly says that IMHO it'd be better to wait a bit before financially extending. We're in the NHS, the public sector cuts are coming, the economy looks fragile, that sort of thing. Not Tin Foil Hat but pitching it as cautious.

At this point the conversation moves up a couple of gears & she announces that I really know nothing about this because "house prices are set to rocket in the next two years", a view broadly supported by the couple of folk listening in. Not that any evidence is actually provided to back up this view. Anyhow, it all gets a bit heated...

So I take out my diary & enter a note for two years hence, reminding myself that I'll check back with her on 24th May 2012.

And putting a tenner on a minimum 20% house price fall by then.

So.....do you reckon my money's safe?

Of course it is, not!

Your second diary entry for the day: "check back with housepricecrash on 24th May 2012".

By the way, if you can't see the evidence everyday around you - your nurse colleagues, the couple of folks listening in, the folks further down the road who aren't within earshot of your conversation but share the same sentiments as those who are - then you will never see it. Because the evidence you want to see - the analysis, the graphs, the statistics, and cut & thrust of posters on HPC -- is evidence to underpin your already formed belief.

Good luck and keep on looking

[ingermany]

Your money will be safe.

People are massively in denial. My partner works in the NHS too and was talking to a fellow nurse at work. With a kid on the way this lass has just got an offer in on a £250k house with a mortgage that will be just shy of £200k. This girl's partner works in the NHS too in a non-frontline position. It looks like an absolute recipe for disaster.

Or not................If they lose jobs the government pays the mortgage interest for at least 2 years. If the house price rises 20% in that time nursey has a windfall of 50K for zero investment. This acts as a deposit for 2 BTL properties, so they no longer need to work in the NHS. This scenario is of course complete fantasy, but it is still the way people think.

Even if value goes down, they still have a house, and no bank will EVER evict a nurse. That's a fact.

Edited May 24, 2010 by ingermany

[ingermany]

OK, the background is what started as a chat at work today. Colleague (nurse, single mum) announces that she's thinking of buying a house. Plans to borrow some unspecified number of tens of thousands from parents & buy somewhere bigger for her & her daughter. Says that she doesn't actually need to but would really like to.

So yours truly says that IMHO it'd be better to wait a bit before financially extending. We're in the NHS, the public sector cuts are coming, the economy looks fragile, that sort of thing. Not Tin Foil Hat but pitching it as cautious.

At this point the conversation moves up a couple of gears & she announces that I really know nothing about this because "house prices are set to rocket in the next two years", a view broadly supported by the couple of folk listening in. Not that any evidence is actually provided to back up this view. Anyhow, it all gets a bit heated...

So I take out my diary & enter a note for two years hence, reminding myself that I'll check back with her on 24th May 2012.

And putting a tenner on a minimum 20% house price fall by then.

So.....do you reckon my money's safe?

and no bank will ever evict a nurse who is a single mum..............in fact they will waive the mortgage payments indefinitely. I guarantee it.

[benzlife]

Of course it is, not!

Your second diary entry for the day: "check back with housepricecrash on 24th May 2012".

By the way, if you can't see the evidence everyday around you - your nurse colleagues, the couple of folks listening in, the folks further down the road who aren't within earshot of your conversation but share the same sentiments as those who are - then you will never see it. Because the evidence you want to see - the analysis, the graphs, the statistics, and cut & thrust of posters on HPC -- is evidence to underpin your already formed belief.

Good luck and keep on looking

if the only factor in which way a market moves is sentiment you may be right. if it's only about the fundamentals then you're wrong. I somehow doubt the fundamentals are gonna get any better in the next 2 years. Sentiment on the other hand might change.

* edited to correct typo

Edited May 24, 2010 by benzlife

[housepricecrash]

if the only factor in which way a market moves is sentiment you may be right. if it's only about the fundamentals then you're wrong. I somehow doubt the fundamentals are gonna get any better in the next 2 years. Sentiment on the other hand might change.

* edited to correct typo

I agree with you friend - keep on looking for the fundamentals

[Shrink Proof]

An update:-

Have emailed her yesterday's record falls. Am now much more convinced that my money's safe.

[guitarman001]

Let us know her reaction - I'd have urged the silly cow to buy.

[Caveat Mortgagor]

And putting a tenner on a minimum 20% house price fall by then.

So.....do you reckon my money's safe?

You should have ensured the stake money was placed with an intermediary so that she doesnt have to find the cash whilst mired in negative equity.

Edited October 8, 2010 by Caveat Mortgagor

[keef]

I guarantee a tenner will buy you even less on that date that it does now.

Exactly what I was gonna say.

House prices won't be 20% down in two years, but the £160k of currency that you buy it with will be equivalent to maybe £120k today.

But your colleague won't be able to comprehend that, I reckon.

[Shrink Proof]

Exactly what I was gonna say.

House prices won't be 20% down in two years, but the £160k of currency that you buy it with will be equivalent to maybe £120k today.

But your colleague won't be able to comprehend that, I reckon.

Actually she appears to comprehend very little. Keeps asking why I'm not emailing her an equal number of links to stories saying house prices increased by 3.6% last month, etc. - apparently I'm being "selective" with my information.

Sigh...

[Normal]

Actually she appears to comprehend very little. Keeps asking why I'm not emailing her an equal number of links to stories saying house prices increased by 3.6% last month, etc. - apparently I'm being "selective" with my information.

Sigh...

Send charts. People understand pretty pictures more than numbers.

[wherebee]

None so deaf as those who will not hear. If you have a friendship with this woman, don't continue to send her info - she'll get pissed off way before the information actually helps her. If you don't care if she ends up hating you, by all means carry on.

And it's a dumb bet anyway. If you win, she wont pay because she'll be in such trouble and will hate your guts.

[nohpc]

For god's sake just get it over and shag her.

[pl1]

OK, the background is what started as a chat at work today. Colleague (nurse, single mum) announces that she's thinking of buying a house. Plans to borrow some unspecified number of tens of thousands from parents & buy somewhere bigger for her & her daughter. Says that she doesn't actually need to but would really like to.

So yours truly says that IMHO it'd be better to wait a bit before financially extending. We're in the NHS, the public sector cuts are coming, the economy looks fragile, that sort of thing. Not Tin Foil Hat but pitching it as cautious.

At this point the conversation moves up a couple of gears & she announces that I really know nothing about this because "house prices are set to rocket in the next two years", a view broadly supported by the couple of folk listening in. Not that any evidence is actually provided to back up this view. Anyhow, it all gets a bit heated...

So I take out my diary & enter a note for two years hence, reminding myself that I'll check back with her on 24th May 2012.

And putting a tenner on a minimum 20% house price fall by then.

So.....do you reckon my money's safe?

It's always worth doing things like this. An even easier way is to go over two year old posts on here and see what people thought and then bring them to task on it. Go over posts from six months ago and look at the people who talked rubbish about BP and not touching it with a bargepole, then look at the few who dared and cleaned up. Or how about the posts from January 2009 about RBS when it got spanked and everyone fled for the door except for a few lone voices who were shouted down and berated.

When people make correct predictions they shout about it but when it's wrong they quietly let the post get buried. It's always worth bringing the wrong predictions out of the woodwork.

edit: *grumpy-old-man-returns classic exmaple. Since predicting the worst depression ever (no real timescale given, just "comming soon") he has since fled for the hills never to be seen of again.

Edited October 9, 2010 by pl1