RDW Posted February 4, 2010 Share Posted February 4, 2010 http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-business/article-23802401-interest-rates-will-surge-to-65-percent-by-2015-barclays-says.do Interest rates will surge to 6.5% Interest rates will soar over the next five years despite feeble economic growth and rising unemployment, leading economists warned today. A report by Barclays said rates will rise to 3.5% by the time of the London Olympics in 2012 and to 6.5% in 2015 to keep inflation under control. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deflation Posted February 4, 2010 Share Posted February 4, 2010 (edited) 5 years to get to 6.5%. If we get enough inflation, it'll be a lot quicker than that. Personally, I think raising them as high as 4% will cripple so many people that they won't go much higher than that for a decade. Edited February 4, 2010 by deflation Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mega Posted February 4, 2010 Share Posted February 4, 2010 6.5% by 2012........... Mike Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nohpc Posted February 4, 2010 Share Posted February 4, 2010 5 years to get to 6.5%. If we get enough inflation, it'll be a lot quicker than that. Wonder what the vested interest here is. Have barclays gone short on treasuries or something? Think I'll take my chances. I can stomach paying more if interest rates rise alot. I couldn't stomach fixing on a stupid rate and seeing rates stay low for a long time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichM Posted February 4, 2010 Share Posted February 4, 2010 Stephen Hayes is their in-house economist. Don't know what independence they have - none I expect - but it's interesting. 6% would be well and truly game over, for a long time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlie The Tramp Returns Posted February 4, 2010 Share Posted February 4, 2010 and to 6.5% in 2015 to keep inflation under control.[/i] Incorrect they will hit that figure around Q3 2011. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pie-eater Posted February 4, 2010 Share Posted February 4, 2010 Bring it on. My £420k (invested away from UK's paper £) will get me the house I want. Currently renting it for a 2.1% yeild. I'll continue to rent on the cheap and funnel my savings away to where they give a return. I'm thinking 10/10 or 11/10 for a real time to move. We're heading for an austerity budget. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saving For a Space Ship Posted February 4, 2010 Share Posted February 4, 2010 Incorrect they will hit that figure around Q3 2011. Hello Charlie, can you remind me what the average IR's are historically ? I recall 9% from 1950-70s & 8% from 70s to 2000 or similar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nohpc Posted February 4, 2010 Share Posted February 4, 2010 Hello Charlie, can you remind me what the average IR's are historically ? I recall 9% from 1950-70s & 8% from 70s to 2000 or similar. history is the past. Average IRs are irrelevant. If they were relevant in the slightest 0.5% interest rates would be impossible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mega Posted February 4, 2010 Share Posted February 4, 2010 I think the average rate since the war is 7.3%...........Not sure. I do recall getting 12% & seeing 15%......... I also expect a large "Event" that will in one step drop £ by 25+% Mike Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlie The Tramp Returns Posted February 4, 2010 Share Posted February 4, 2010 Hello Charlie, can you remind me what the average IR's are historically ? I recall 9% from 1950-70s & 8% from 70s to 2000 or similar. Here we go it`s the Jason and Charlie Thread. Jason and Charlie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichM Posted February 5, 2010 Share Posted February 5, 2010 They should be higher than the post-war average, given the expansion of the money supply Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
0q0 Posted February 5, 2010 Share Posted February 5, 2010 (edited) "Surge to 3.5%...surge to 6.5%" - hardly a surge, 6.5% is still low by historic standards. In previous decades anything under 8 or 9% was good. 15% wasn't it at one point not so long ago? I admire the sweet innocence, pure as a new snowflake, of those borrowers who think interest rates of 3% are too high for any government to inflict on them! Good luck with that one, chumps! Edit: sorry was it expert Rog on Radio 4 today that's reassured you rates will be low for eons to come, LOL, oh well if Rog says so... Edited February 5, 2010 by The Last Bear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aa3 Posted February 5, 2010 Share Posted February 5, 2010 Imo Barclay's is trying to scare people into the 5 year locked mortgages. Why sell people mortgages at variable 2.5%, when you can get them into 5% mortgages for the same thing? I'd be shocked if rates were above 1% in 2015. There is just no one to lend to, so no demand on money. Who can take on more debt right now, and which section of the economy looks like its going to expand on heavy borrowing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deflation Posted February 5, 2010 Share Posted February 5, 2010 (edited) Quote: "They should be higher than the post-war average, given the expansion of the money supply." Don't forget the introduction of MIRAS reduced the mortgage costs for everybody. From it's implementation in 1969 until it was phased out in the 1990s. It went completely in 2000. Edited February 5, 2010 by deflation Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
0q0 Posted February 5, 2010 Share Posted February 5, 2010 I'd be shocked if rates were above 1% in 2015. You cannot be serious! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTMark Posted February 5, 2010 Share Posted February 5, 2010 I'd reckon 2% by the end of 2010 5% by the end of 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
200p Posted February 5, 2010 Share Posted February 5, 2010 12% by 2012 LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Once in a lifetime Posted February 5, 2010 Share Posted February 5, 2010 Oh no... not 6.5% !!? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack's Creation Posted February 5, 2010 Share Posted February 5, 2010 Wonder what the vested interest here is. Have barclays gone short on treasuries or something? Think I'll take my chances. I can stomach paying more if interest rates rise alot. I couldn't stomach fixing on a stupid rate and seeing rates stay low for a long time. It's not your ability to pay that you have to worry about, it's the people who lose their jobs ( due to their businesses being unable to service their debts at the new higher interest rates) who can't pay their rapidly rising tracker mortgage and live in a similar property to your own in your area. These are the people you have to worry about ( and yet have absolutely no control over) Prices are always set on the margins. Negative equity is a killer. I'm guessing 40% down by Q1 2013. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonoP Posted February 5, 2010 Share Posted February 5, 2010 history is the past. Average IRs are irrelevant. If they were relevant in the slightest 0.5% interest rates would be impossible. Errrrm....yes....what are you are trying to say is 'it is different this time....' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest absolutezero Posted February 5, 2010 Share Posted February 5, 2010 This topic made me laugh. No-one can predict the future. "6.5% by 2015 No! 2012?" etc. Hogwash. The rates might be higher by then. Yes, you can make a punt on the general pattern but specifics are impossible to predict. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VeryMeanReversion Posted February 5, 2010 Share Posted February 5, 2010 (edited) Don't forget the house price bit in the article: "Dicks and Hayes blamed the UK's woes on booming house prices and the vulnerability of the financial sector" Now, who could have seen that coming I wonder.... VMR. Edited February 5, 2010 by VeryMeanReversion Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!) Posted February 5, 2010 Share Posted February 5, 2010 http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-business/article-23802401-interest-rates-will-surge-to-65-percent-by-2015-barclays-says.do Interest rates will surge to 6.5% Interest rates will soar over the next five years despite feeble economic growth and rising unemployment, leading economists warned today. A report by Barclays said rates will rise to 3.5% by the time of the London Olympics in 2012 and to 6.5% in 2015 to keep inflation under control. they havent got a clue Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted February 5, 2010 Share Posted February 5, 2010 they havent got a clue thats right, you need to be a Giant Squid stuck to the face of Humanity to be in charge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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