Why Do Rinoa & Co Keep Ramping The Market

[Bloo Loo]

Policies, since when is a mortgage a policy.

Muppet ~ that's for payment protection insurance.

Woof woof (See Ref. 3)

I didnt say where on the website it came from.

it sets a precedent though. a mortgage sale, like a house sale, takes place the moment the parties agree to transact. the finances come later, and a house transact takes weeks. plenty of time to cancel the sale, the loan, the approval, the agreement, the finance, the deal, whatever you wish to call it.

[Rinoa]

I didnt say where on the website it came from.

it sets a precedent though. a mortgage sale, like a house sale, takes place the moment the parties agree to transact. the finances come later, and a house transact takes weeks. plenty of time to cancel the sale, the loan, the approval, the agreement, the finance, the deal, whatever you wish to call it.

And if it was cancelled, it wouldn't be reported to the FSA and so wouldn't be included in CML's 16% increase in COMPLETED LOANS for April.

[Sybil13]

What I can't understand is that it is in Rinoa and Co's interest to get the crash out of the way as quickly as possible so their trade can return to normal. All they are trying to do is prolong the agony, not that it will have any effect whatsoever because you simply cannot buck the market.

This is what another "Muppet", according to Rinoa , Miles Shipside , RM Director, said in the article ":Raised Asking Price Doing More Harm than Good":

I

understand that agent's are trying to survive in a difficult market, but we need to firm out the price drops that we have had, before we can ascertain if they are enough to bring the market to bottom, and accelerate any further drop that may be necessary

In short, by humouring unrealistic vendors over asking prices, agents may be doing nothing more than prolonging their own misery. ......

The report also said that lack of mortgage availability is hindering market recovery as sellers who have dealt with the market reality and drastically dropped their asking price are faced with buyers unable to obtain finance. Rightmove commercial director Miles Shipside said:

"Some sellers are still pricing wishfully high, though it is encouraging that elements of the market have adapted relatively quickly to find a new price floor at a discount of around 25% from peak. "

"Until banks get their own houses in order, the active minority of sellers and agents who have drastically adjusted pricing will remain frustrated by the limited functioning of the financial services sector."

So, after its initial optimism the Rightmove index enforces the realisation that the UK property market recovery hinges on two things: vendor realism and mortgage availability. The latter more than likely hinged on a recovery to the wider UK economy, which in my opinion is also necessary to increase buyer numbers sufficiently to bring vendor realism

I know Harry Monk that we have both said this week in reply to Valerius I think, that it is not a Q of us WISHING for the market to fall, it is what the market is doing regardless of blips, and regardless of whether we WISH it or VI's deny it. It is at the end of the day the only thing the market can do is adjust with the RMBS market shut and limited funding lenders have to move towards more realistic loan to income / loan to value and sustainable lending regulated to ensure no further bubbles.

Edited June 14, 2009 by Sybil13

[Bloo Loo]

And if it was cancelled, it wouldn't be reported to the FSA and so wouldn't be included in CML's 16% increase in COMPLETED LOANS for April.

doesnt say completed loans.

it says loans.

it is deliberately put like that to encourage people. as is the mission of the CML.

[Rinoa]

doesnt say completed loans.

That's because, by definition, a loan must be a loan to be complete. Otherwise it wouldn't be a loan, it would still be an approval and be described a such.

[Bloo Loo]

That's because, by definition, a loan must be a loan to be complete. Otherwise it wouldn't be a loan, it would still be an approval and be described a such.

why?

Ive got credit of £17,000 on one credit card. is that a loan or a provision and approval.

[Bloo Loo]

That's because, by definition, a loan must be a loan to be complete. Otherwise it wouldn't be a loan, it would still be an approval and be described a such.

oops

Edited June 14, 2009 by Bloo Loo

[Bruce Banner]

You've just destroyed BB's imaginary world where he believes I'm a govt agent.

Actually, I think you are an estate agent, or some such property VI, but if it turned out that you work for NuLabour, I wouldn't be surprised. What is crystal clear is that you are a property ramping SOB, determined to entice FTBs into a falling market.

I think you are the lowest of the low and hold you in utter contempt.

[Sybil13]

No, I didn't say that. I said that mortgage loans had gone up by 16%.

It's important to stress the difference, otherwise Blue Fido will jump in and make totally inaccurate comments about approvals.

It's always a puzzle to me why bears can't accept that a recovery will take time. If transactions took a year to fall to their lows, it's reasonable to expect the same timescales when the market returns.

We've had 6 months of rising transactions. And next month transactions will be higher than last year. What will you post then?

Not had a minute this afternoon to read and post but OK I will stick my neck out again and show myself for the bear of little brain that I am and ask Bloo Loo or someone to please clarify this point.

The past week we have been told that:

"Mortgage lending by building societies fell slightly in April and was 60 per cent lower than last year "

And we have been told that "approvals" went up 16% but the article then speaks about loans :

From Times Online

June 11, 2009

New mortgage approvals rise 16% in April

The CML, whose members are banks, building societies and other lenders who together undertake around 98 in every 100 mortgages, said 35,600 loans for house purchases were granted during the month.

While an improvement on the March figures, however, the number of home loans granted in April was down 28 per cent on the same month last year.

Those loans totalled £4.5 billion — which was also up 16 per cent on the total for March — although the total value was down 40 per cent on April last year

Now I know that figures comes from different sources and this can cause confusion , the 60% falls in loans were from the building societies, is that correct?

The 40% fall in loan from the banks, oh no, looking at the article it says building societies and banks .

So are we saying there were 40 - 60% drop in loans this April? And approvals were down 28% from April last year , is that correct?

So its not really even a Q of "is the cup half full or half empty is it" when we are looking at 60% drops in loans compared to 16% increase at the busiest time in an EA's calander.

You say:

"It's always a puzzle to me why bears can't accept that a recovery will take time. If transactions took a year to fall to their lows, it's reasonable to expect the same timescales when the market returns.

Equally it is a puzzle to us bears why you cannot accept that crashes take time and that we are nowhere near the bottom.

It is equally puzzling why you consider the current value of property LOW? And a reasonable timescale historically for property values to go back up once they have dropped 35% + is what exactly?

You say:

We've had 6 months of rising transactions. And next month transactions will be higher than last year. What will you post then?

What then? I would imagine we will start posting fairly soon about the falls that are just waiting to happen.

The BSA have said their members have said that there will be at least a further 10% fall this year .

Nationwide and Halifax / RM and Hometrack have all said that the rise is property prices is ONLY due to limited properties coming on the market and should more properties come on the market HPC would continue.

They have confirmed that those currently buying are the cash rich.

The CML have said that there are limits on how much the market can recover in the current financial climate and with FTB's unable to get a mortgage.

The FACTS I included at the beginning of this thread confirm how difficult it is to get a mortgage.

I can only imagine you find it very hard to admit you are wrong, but life will always provide us with what we need to correct our world view no matter how many times we choose to try to ignore it believing only our world view is right.

You could of course attempt to say the same to me, but I hope beyond hope that the world view I attempt to embrace is one that is sustainable and of the greatest benefit to the whole.

[Bloo Loo]

the CML is a VI body.

It represents banks and lenders.

"The CML is not able to provide any further consumer advice. We are not a regulator for the mortgage industry and cannot take complaints regarding the conduct of our members. "

it can mean whatever it likes in its figures.

It doesnt take complaints from its members, who also pay their wages.

they also have happy take on rising possessions, including jungle mail

"There were also 12,800 cases of possession by first-charge lenders in the first three months of 2009, compared with 10,400 in the final quarter of 2008. Possessions in the first quarter of the year were 51% higher than the 8,500 cases recorded in the same period in 2008.

But the number of cases of voluntary possessions – where the owner opts to turn the property over to the lender – rose even more sharply. Voluntary possessions accounted for 27% of the total in the first three months of this year, compared to 14% a year before.

No lender will initiate possession action for at least three months after the borrower is in arrears. Indeed, some lenders have extended this period to six months. It is not in the commercial interests of lenders to seek possession. But the borrower needs to work with the lender to avoid this outcome."

this action alone massages the figures for at least a quarter. government request in action.

[Sybil13]

the CML is a VI body.

.....they also have happy take on rising possessions, including jungle mail

"There were also 12,800 cases of possession by first-charge lenders in the first three months of 2009, compared with 10,400 in the final quarter of 2008. Possessions in the first quarter of the year were 51% higher than the 8,500 cases recorded in the same period in 2008.

But the number of cases of voluntary possessions – ... rose even more sharply. Voluntary possessions accounted for 27% of the total in the first three months of this year, compared to 14% a year before.

Oh my god do you mean like the Exorcist? Do you think Rinoa and McTavish might be possessed too? To be honest it doesn't shock me that possessions are on the increase, I read somewhere that the more people lose control by falling into denial they open themselves up to this sort of thing.

Edited June 14, 2009 by Sybil13

[blankster]

I don't know about green shoots but the property market is in a much better state than it was a few months ago.

[HAMISH_MCTAVISH]

So Sybil,

Without cutting and pasting a page of irrelevant spam.....

Try answering the following.....

House prices have risen every month in the last 3 months on one or more of the major indices. True or False?

House prices are expected to rise this month on one or more of the major indices. True or false?

The average fall from peak in actual sold prices according to the Land Registry is currently getting smaller. True or false?

Now, just to clarify.... Is it your position that prices are not currently rising? That the indices are falsified? Or that they are rising now but will fall again in the future?

[givemethegun]

Why is my property bee list full of red (price drops)?

[Kazuya]

Why is my property bee list full of red (price drops)?

Because Hamish is wrong?

[Bloo Loo]

I don't know about green shoots but the property market is in a much better state than it was a few months ago.

indeed, its cheaper and properties are now coming back to market.

[Bloo Loo]

So Sybil,

Without cutting and pasting a page of irrelevant spam.....

Try answering the following.....

House prices have risen every month in the last 3 months on one or more of the major indices. True or False?

House prices are expected to rise this month on one or more of the major indices. True or false?

The average fall from peak in actual sold prices according to the Land Registry is currently getting smaller. True or false?

Now, just to clarify.... Is it your position that prices are not currently rising? That the indices are falsified? Or that they are rising now but will fall again in the future?

its a spring bounce.... havent you heard?

[Kazuya]

its a spring bounce.... havent you heard?

You'll have a more intelligent debate with this:

[darwin]

Oh my god do you mean like the Exorcist? Do you think Rinoa and McTavish might be possessed too? To be honest it doesn't shock me that possessions are on the increase, I read somewhere that the more people lose control by falling into denial they open themselves up to this sort of thing.

[Bloo Loo]

You'll have a more intelligent debate with this:

I think he enjoys the warm pee on his leg.

[Sybil13]

I don't know about green shoots but the property market is in a much better state than it was a few months ago.

Hi , I guess given the state the market has been in it couldn't actually get in a worst state could it?

As Merryn said:

Let's start with the mortgage approval numbers. Yes, they are up. But not much. The long-term average since the series began in 1993 is 94,000 a month. So 38,000, a number that is 40% down on last year, is not very encouraging.

Much the same can be said of the number of products available: 3,091 might sound like a lot but it is still 80% fewer than this time last year and 30% fewer than even in December. It hardly suggests a return to the days of the easy credit, which drove the bubble in the first place. ( This weekend it was confirmed there were 97% fewer mortgages available for FTB's).

Last year property prices fell and fell yet lending levels are down 60% on last year, so how can prices in truth be going up?

Nationwide / Halifax etc confirm that property is only selling to the cash rich and prices are only going up because so few properties are on the market.

As I keep saying, I track 50 + properties in Dorset , £200000 to £250000 mark, I have been watching them for months, nothing is selling and I can't have chosen the ONLY properties in Dorset that are not selling can I?

I can understand sellers waiting out the summer trying to get 2007 value less a little bit, and a small % will sell to people who do not need a mortgage , or have a large deposit , but I am not convinced that as news continues to filter through about mortgage lending "drying up" etc. and the obvious consequences , that any sale begun in the next months or so will necessarily reach completion.

Lots of buyers jumped in in January /February believing the "green shoots" ramping at that time, then the news started to confirm further falls and people pulled out of sales. I think the same will start to happen in August - September on sales begun in June, how can it not happen when lending levels are down 60% on last year?

[Rinoa]

Hi , I guess given the state the market has been in it couldn't actually get in a worst state could it?

As Merryn said:

Last year property prices fell and fell yet lending levels are down 60% on last year, so how can prices in truth be going up?

Nationwide / Halifax etc confirm that property is only selling to the cash rich and prices are only going up because so few properties are on the market.

As I keep saying, I track 50 + properties in Dorset , £200000 to £250000 mark, I have been watching them for months, nothing is selling and I can't have chosen the ONLY properties in Dorset that are not selling can I?

I can understand sellers waiting out the summer trying to get 2007 value less a little bit, and a small % will sell to people who do not need a mortgage , or have a large deposit , but I am not convinced that as news continues to filter through about mortgage lending "drying up" etc. and the obvious consequences , that any sale begun in the next months or so will necessarily reach completion.

Lots of buyers jumped in in January /February believing the "green shoots" ramping at that time, then the news started to confirm further falls and people pulled out of sales. I think the same will start to happen in August - September on sales begun in June, how can it not happen when lending levels are down 60% on last year?

When even the HPC moderators start buying, you've got to start thinking the unthinkable.

[Sybil13]

So Sybil,

Without cutting and pasting a page of irrelevant spam.....

Try answering the following.....

1. House prices have risen every month in the last 3 months on one or more of the major indices. True or False?

2. House prices are expected to rise this month on one or more of the major indices. True or false?

3. The average fall from peak in actual sold prices according to the Land Registry is currently getting smaller. True or false?

Now, just to clarify.... Is it your position that prices are not currently rising? That the indices are falsified? Or that they are rising now but will fall again in the future?

So what are you saying, you are not interested in FACTS .

Nothing is ever black or white , true or false life is not that simplistic.

1. What is important about the major indices is that they have ALL said that the HPI is not sustainable , and if more properties came on the market HPC would resume. I can cut and paste to support this if you would like? However, don't forget that the Halifax and Nationwide indices are based on a monthly sample of mortgage applications, pre valuation and as both these articles confirm many of those approvals are not making it to completion .

Surveyors Realistic Valuations Breaking Chains

Homebuyers Left High and Dry as Mortgage Offers Cancelled

2. If house prices did not show a rise this month on one or more major indices that would be surprising given that this is PEAK selling / buying time , but that does not mean prices are not going to continue falling for a long long time to come. As you know a survey of lenders said that on average they expected at least 10% further falls this year

3. Well I think we have answered this at Nos 1 have we not?

But with the mention of LR was reminded of this article last week, their headline not mine :

UK house prices continue falling as actual house sales crash by sixty percent

UK house prices (actual sold values) continued falling according to the latest statistical release from Land Registry published this morning which records the actual prices achieved...

Although these figures can lag by up to six months; the period covered is in fact November to February, the most startling revelation is the severe drop in sales transactions. Nationally there was a sixty percent fall in sales, in February the number of transactions slumped to just 25,592, half of the 51,121 recorded in February 2008. In London 2,933 properties changed hands compared with 7,152 last year, a fall of circa 65%.

The mainstream media will generate plenty of opinion today suggesting a 'bottom' of sorts has been reached by the housing market. With transaction numbers at lows not seen since the seventies and mortgage lending 60% down year on year this would be a premature assumption when mortgage lending and sales transactions suggest an undeniable fact; the housing market is in fact dead...

Finally you asked:

Now, just to clarify.... Is it your position that prices are not currently rising? That the indices are falsified? Or that they are rising now but will fall again in the future?

Um, well I hate to keep repeating myself but I think it was you that said:

This is a blip. There are further, although much smaller, falls to go over next winter. 30% off peak, when we had already reached 22%, seems reasonable. Could just as easily be 25%. Or 35% if some new liquidity crisis comes along before then.

As for my position, I hope I have helped clarify that it is not MY position with regards rising prices, but that of the lenders, they are the ones that are saying , as you said above, that HPI is a "blip". You know, as I know that until approvals double property values will fall ............

With regards to falsified indices I can only repeat what Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said in March 2009:

Most of the house price indices suggest prices have fallen by up to 20pc from the peak. However, many of our members [surveyors and estate agents] cast doubt on this and calculate independently that the scale of price falls has been even greater − 30pc or more already. They suspect the Nationwide and Halifax figures are underestimating scale of the peak-to-trough fall to date.

Looking at the surveys you have to come to the conclusion that we aren't at the bottom by any stretch yet. Our members are still expecting further falls in prices, according to our survey, and if there's anyone you might expect to be talking up the market it is them

I am sure you will tell me that I am totally wrong ......but hey you called Merryn Somerset Webb :

an ugly, odious, crash ramping little attention whore.

Scum of the earth.

So what chance have the rest of us got , which is why I choose to use you to practice my love and compassion with x

Edited June 14, 2009 by Sybil13

[threetimesdead]

When even the HPC moderators start buying, you've got to start thinking the unthinkable.

And what would that be?

[HAMISH_MCTAVISH]

When even the HPC moderators start buying, you've got to start thinking the unthinkable.

They are indeed dropping like flies......