Rics: House Prices 'close To Stabilising'

[Jim B.]

And here they are.

Haha....20% of 5 is just 1. You know those figures have little value. So few people are buying anyway. Nice try though.

[wonderpup]

According to this from today's Telegraph FTB's are making a comeback.

Maybe it's better than the big chief at RICs even realised.

So, you cite RICs as your authority and now cast doubt on their competence?

The basic problem always remains the gap between where house prices currently are and the amount of money now available to finance their purchase- no amount of wishful thinking or creative interpretation is able to fill this gap in.

[Moo]

And here they are.

The article contains only percentages, and not absolute figures. It is therefore meaningless.

For example, in 1942 the distribution of first names of veterans of the Battle of the Denmark Straight that served on HMS Hood was 33.3'% Ted, 33.3'% Robert, and 33.3'% William. Does it therefore follow that the battle was fought by 472 Teds, 472 Roberts, and 472 Williams?

[Timm]

To be fair I do see a stabilisation in the falls, hpc stage 1 over = 20%.

BUT............now see hpc2 being readied for action. Namely the FSA bringing out rules on mortgaing lending.

Nothing is going to stop the bubble deflating all we are seeing is attempts to deflate it as slowly as possible.

It's 40-50% whatever..........

hpc 3 will be when interest rates begin to rise, coinciding with the reality of being a landlord for all the 'we will sit it out' brigade.

Yes indeed.

If we are really lucky, we will see a HIPs Holiday soon, that will bring out the sellers just in time for the next leg down.

Oh, and market rates are rising. A huge increase in the number of accounts / savings bonds offering 4%, and news expected from NSAI in the next week. Expect those cash rich buyers to vanish from whence they came.

[Harry Monk]

Guardian

Positive news everywhere you look

Simon Rubinsohn's track record on predicting house prices is about on a par with Sibley's, or indeed those of your good self. I say that prices will fall for an absolute minimum of 15% over the next year but probably nearer 25%.

[Mr. Miyagi]

God Rinoa you are so freaking boring.

[Rinoa]

Oh, and market rates are rising. A huge increase in the number of accounts / savings bonds offering 4%, and news expected from NSAI in the next week. Expect those cash rich buyers to vanish from whence they came.

Yes, I can just hear those cash rich buyers.

"I can only get 3.5% on my savings. That's crap, I'm buying a house. Oh, wait a minute they're now offering 4%, cancel the house it's all going back in the building society"

Actually, 2 and 3 year swap rates have started to fall again this week. Lenders are often slow to respond.

Edited May 20, 2009 by Rinoa

[pete.hpc]

Guardian

Positive news everywhere you look

Except the house price indexes

Go away Columbo

[justwatching]

And here they are.

Oh Rinoa bless.

Here what is?

A broker saying 21% of its customers were first time buyers?

21% of what?

Could even equal 21 mortgages.

[dispossessed]

Positive news everywhere you look

You're not wrong, just this morning in my local rag I read of another 2000 redundancies, that will favour the bears.

[Mal Volio]

Yes, I can just hear those cash rich buyers.

"I can only get 3.5% on my savings. That's crap, I'm buying a house. Oh, wait a minute they're now offering 4%, cancel the house it's all going back in the building society"

I am a cash-rich (potential) buyer. Why would I exchange +4% on my STR fund for -17% ?

[MOP]

I am a cash-rich (potential) buyer. Why would I exchange +4% on my STR fund for -17% ?

"Sentiment". That's why. Not mathematics, just "sentiment".

[Harry Monk]

I am a cash-rich (potential) buyer. Why would I exchange +4% on my STR fund for -17% ?

Me too, I would only need a small mortgage and have a 60% deposit on my target house and a 100% credit record. I could buy tomorrow.

But why would I when that house will be £30,000 cheaper this time next year?

[tomwatkins]

That makes me laugh so much. "House prices will stabilise but er no-one will actually be able to sell them, erm duh yeah".

Cloud cuckoo land.

Brings my profession in to disrepute. The statement by "our expert" is baffling in its stupidity. Prices will stabalise (by his own admission very few FTB's) so, presumably everyone stays put. How can it be otherwise? Someone help me out here-what am I missing.

Tom MRICS

PS My apologies on behalf of my profession.

[tomwatkins]

That makes me laugh so much. "House prices will stabilise but er no-one will actually be able to sell them, erm duh yeah".

Cloud cuckoo land.

Brings my profession in to disrepute. The statement by "our expert" is baffling in its stupidity. Prices will stabalise (by his own admission very few FTB's) so, presumably everyone stays put. How can it be otherwise? Someone help me out here-what am I missing.

Tom MRICS

PS My apologies on behalf of my profession.

[Harry Monk]

Brings my profession in to disrepute. The statement by "our expert" is baffling in its stupidity. Prices will stabalise (by his own admission very few FTB's) so, presumably everyone stays put. How can it be otherwise? Someone help me out here-what am I missing.

Tom MRICS

PS My apologies on behalf of my profession.

An excellent point, the only place where I would disagree with you is where you consider that estate agency is a "profession".

[Concrete Jungle]

Brings my profession in to disrepute. The statement by "our expert" is baffling in its stupidity. Prices will stabalise (by his own admission very few FTB's) so, presumably everyone stays put. How can it be otherwise? Someone help me out here-what am I missing.

Tom MRICS

PS My apologies on behalf of my profession.

I am ashamed to be a member of RICS when they continually publish such clap trap.

[Telometer]

An excellent point, the only place where I would disagree with you is where you consider that estate agency is a "profession".

Surveying is most definitely a profession. That was uncalled for.

[Harry Monk]

Surveying is most definitely a profession. That was uncalled for.

Yes, apologies, I was distracted by the fact that Rinoa, an estate agent, started the thread. When I re-read it after I had posted it I realised I had messed up.

[the end is a bit nigher]

Guardian

Positive news everywhere you look

Totally agree. A 30% drop was as much as I dared hope for within 3 or 4 years compared to the last crash but RICS confirm we get it this year.

[Bloo Loo]

Surveying is most definitely a profession. That was uncalled for.

so is prostitution....carry out a service for money.

[deadman]

Only an idiot would deny the economy is back on track. Thank god for that. GB did know what he was doing after all.

And you thought you knew better.

Why are your posts becoming 100% trollish?

I suspect you may have been a bear in disguise all along.

[Harry Monk]

Only an idiot would deny the economy is back on track.

OK, so on Planet Sibley I am an idiot.

[grizzly bear]

Yes, I can just hear those cash rich buyers.

"I can only get 3.5% on my savings. That's crap, I'm buying a house. Oh, wait a minute they're now offering 4%, cancel the house it's all going back in the building society"

Actually, 2 and 3 year swap rates have started to fall again this week. Lenders are often slow to respond.

Rinoa: You are talking rubbish. I'm a STR almost for cash buyer and my money is currently in a one year bond at 6.5% - so no rush to buy, even, because we are only paying around a 3% yield on our rental house - which is less than the rate than we'd borrow at.

Yes we will buy at some point but even if we only get 4% its still not worth buying unless we are 100% sure that prices have stopped falling. Although you can think prices are going up, I'd rather wait even if it means I miss the actual bottom by a few %.

[darwin]

Only an idiot would deny the economy is back on track. Thank god for that. GB did know what he was doing after all.

*blink* *blink*

Yeah, you know the one: