Deleriad Posted May 18, 2009 Share Posted May 18, 2009 The gap between stary eyed sellers initial asking price sand the price actually achieved is now 33% if you compare Rightmove and Nationwide. That is staggering. So are buyers really negotiating 33% off the initial aksing price or is Rightmove data just a loads of old b*llox ?! Don't forget that the Rightmove index is for properties new on the market in the last month. Average asking prices for property on the market for longer than a month will be lower. According to RM, about 60K of sellers cut their prices last month with an average cut of 6.8%. The RM index is normally useful because it gives an insight into new seller sentiment. What we're seeing now though is that in a bust new seller asking prices and sold prices appear to diverge quite radically and is probably not a useful forward indicator any more. What would be really interesting would be to look at the average asking prices for properties under offer and STC and see how that has changed. Don't know if the data is available. Although it wouldn't give actual sold prices it might give an insight into the kind of price which attracts offers that are accepted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ReJoyce Posted May 18, 2009 Share Posted May 18, 2009 (edited) Thanks for those links. What will be really interesting is when we can see the prices from the recent upswing in Oxford sales over the last quarter... Edit: Now these are small volumes, so are going to be noisy, but as I don't think that prices for detatched homes in Oxford have fallen 59% from peak, one has to assume that sales of the higher priced properties have simply stopped, thus allowing the lower priced ones to skew the averages: http://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_...mp;endyear=2009 As you say - very noisy which is why I prefer the whole of Oxfordshire graphs. The trend line still points down though! This is also interesting: http://www.home.co.uk/guides/time_on_marke...mp;endyear=2009 Time on market from a minimum of 70 days to 170 now! cheers J Edited May 18, 2009 by ReJoyce Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sybil13 Posted May 18, 2009 Share Posted May 18, 2009 As you say - very noisy which is why I prefer the whole of Oxfordshire graphs. The trend line still points down though!This is also interesting: http://www.home.co.uk/guides/time_on_marke...mp;endyear=2009 Time on market from a minimum of 70 days to 170 now! cheers J I also noted that 170 days seems to be about average for a property, that is 25 weeks, I wonder how much the Rightmove's 2% rise last month will have gone down by December? Predictions? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheEmperorHasNoClothes Posted May 18, 2009 Share Posted May 18, 2009 Seems like the housing market is going the way of a flea market, where you never pay anything near the asking price! One day it'll be £300k asking price, £100k selling price. What a joke! At least in this case an offer of 50k may not be frowned at ... oh ok 60k then as I'm feeling generous! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evictee Posted May 18, 2009 Share Posted May 18, 2009 All this data that Rightmove have access too, and the best stat they can come up with is a non mix-adjusted average of newly listed asking prices? Are they stupid? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sybil13 Posted May 18, 2009 Share Posted May 18, 2009 All this data that Rightmove have access too, and the best stat they can come up with is a non mix-adjusted average of newly listed asking prices? Are they stupid? Not if the only way Miles Shipside can get EA's to list on Rightmove is to make it look like prices are going up and get it in all the papers! One BIG problem, making it look like property prices is NOT going to get buyers rushing to buy like there is no tomorrow, which I assume they are hoping they will do. Sadly just confirms once more how stupid they are. Oh I see Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leonard Hatred Posted May 18, 2009 Share Posted May 18, 2009 All this data that Rightmove have access too, and the best stat they can come up with is a non mix-adjusted average of newly listed asking prices? Are they stupid? No, but the people they're trying to placate are, hence why do it any other way? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MississippiJohnHurt Posted May 18, 2009 Share Posted May 18, 2009 All this data that Rightmove have access too, and the best stat they can come up with is a non mix-adjusted average of newly listed asking prices? Are they stupid? Rightmove probably not too bothered about prices, they have more of a VI in high transaction levels. So to be fair to them, each time one of these comedy rises occurs, they've basically been telling sellers not to be stupid and greedy, and that 25% off will secure a sale. What is stupid is press and public not seeing through the stats, so we get headlines of "house prices rise again". (not actually true). Same with the NAEA stats which basically tell us that the estate agents are selling more property as fellow estate agents go bust and the pool size reduces. These then get reported as a large increase in sales . Lazy journalism and anyone who believes it is lazy minded. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gaylidge Posted May 18, 2009 Share Posted May 18, 2009 No, but the people they're trying to placate are, hence why do it any other way? people ARE stupid, that is the problem people are indoctrinated to believe that property is the holy grail and want to believe that property prices are rising i fool i know has just bought an overpriced newbuild made of cardboard in brentwood for £200k on the basis of a couple of house price surveys showing prices rising what about credit tightening, rising unemployment, falling gdp??? the average joe blocks out such obstacles to hp growth and is seduced by the 10% paper discount offered on thier new pigoen hole expect a dead cat bounce Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
endofcrash2 Posted May 18, 2009 Share Posted May 18, 2009 They tried all this back in the 90's. I was trying to sell a house at the time with Prudential EA( who had jumped on the bandwagon in the last boom and bought high st EA's). They suggested raising the asking price when there were no buyers,in an atempt to fool the public into thinking prices were actually rising, when in reality they were falling.It worked so well that they pulled out of estate agency. The problem then was there was no work and credit had tightened up. The problem now is theres begining to be no work, credit has tightened up and you need shed loads as a deposit. The thing is though that there are buyers. Lots of them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leonard Hatred Posted May 18, 2009 Share Posted May 18, 2009 The thing is though that there are buyers. Lots of them. [citation needed] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yellerkat Posted May 18, 2009 Share Posted May 18, 2009 The thing is though that there are buyers. Lots of them. The thing is though that there isn't enough funding. Little of it. [Citation op cit] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
starsky Posted May 18, 2009 Share Posted May 18, 2009 There has been a lot of 'positive' economic news over the past couple of months. It's partly been a concerted effort by politicians, etc to talk up the economy. I can't say that I blame them totally, but at the end of the day, there just isn't the same amount of money flowing as there was a few years ago when the pretend stuff was all the rage. What we are experiencing in the housing market is a spring bounce (if you can call it that), combined with a bit of hype from the hopeful, the desperate, the misguided and a few who do have a good point to make. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman Posted May 18, 2009 Share Posted May 18, 2009 Is there a graph somewhere of house prices according to the various indices? I like graphs (looking at them, not drawing them). Presumably this will show a widening divergence between Shitemove and the others. To use a popular economics buzz word, could I be the first to conclude that asking prices have decoupled from reality. Oops - dinner's ready. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sybil13 Posted May 18, 2009 Share Posted May 18, 2009 Is there a graph somewhere of house prices according to the various indices? I like graphs (looking at them, not drawing them). Presumably this will show a widening divergence between Shitemove and the others. To use a popular economics buzz word, could I be the first to conclude that asking prices have decoupled from reality.Oops - dinner's ready. Home co.uk Have some interesting interactive stats you can change the dates at the bottom of the page, choose areas etc.. Someone posted this website for me last week, was excited to begin with but stats , based on Land Reg but skewed in some areas where there are really expensive properties selling and because there are so few sales make it look like prices have gone up 50% ! There are the graphs at the top of HPC page too, took me ages to discover these. And there there is ; House Prices UK Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Executive Sadman Posted May 18, 2009 Share Posted May 18, 2009 Still in the denial phase i guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geoffk Posted May 18, 2009 Share Posted May 18, 2009 I have not been able to get on line today and have had a sheeple day....i have only just heard of this asking price rise so the sheeple will have missed it..did not see it on any news or a property programme tonight. i hear cars asking prices went up today to 30k for a mini...they should sell loads.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XswampyX Posted May 18, 2009 Share Posted May 18, 2009 Is there a graph somewhere of house prices according to the various indices? I like graphs (looking at them, not drawing them). Presumably this will show a widening divergence between Shitemove and the others. To use a popular economics buzz word, could I be the first to conclude that asking prices have decoupled from reality.Oops - dinner's ready. Here's one I've knocked up for you. Enjoy. One word. Deluded It must mean something? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redcellar Posted May 18, 2009 Share Posted May 18, 2009 Thank you. For anyone who does not believe this: http://miranda.hemscott.com/static/cms/5/2...286/2118458.pdf And some choice quotes: Including: Why have I bothered with this? Oh, just to point out that the headline in the OP is, as often the case, very misleading... Average asking prices of properties on the market with Rightmove actually fell last month, it was only new instructions that came on at more money than the new instructions that came on last month. How can that be??? How can only new instructions lead to an increase or decrease? Instructions to existing listings would could be tracked for change but now new listings. By nature they have only one price. If it's that the 'average' first posted price that increased month on month, then that could be because better and bigger properties were entered into the market to push the numbers up. In fact it could even be that a mansion that 4 weeks earlier would have gone for 1Mil now was on for 150K???? Sure that's taking the piss but it's as viable as any other explaination isn't it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kazuya Posted May 19, 2009 Share Posted May 19, 2009 One word. Deluded It must mean something? It is the equivalent to some idiot coming up to you saying: "Will you buy my £10 note for £15?" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XswampyX Posted May 19, 2009 Share Posted May 19, 2009 It is the equivalent to some idiot coming up to you saying: "Will you buy my £10 note for £15?" That's whats happend with sterling this year, but more like will you do £10.00 worth of work for £7.5 Oh dear! :angry: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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