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House Price Crash Forum


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About Deleriad

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  1. Those numbers chime with what seems to be the case to me. It does seem like an incredibly risky step to take but there is still a belief out there that property values will outstrip pretty much everything else. Completely anecdotally. My wife is setting up a new business and we had a chat with a potential builder for the shop-fit. Fairly unremarkable chap until we suddenly found out that he owned the best part of 10 properties. As soon as he mentioned them it was like watching an alcoholic taking a drink. His face flushed and he wanted to do nothing else but talk about them and how he wanted
  2. £300 to £350 pcm tends to be the going rate for single rooms for student flats (4-6 bedroom) in the southside area. That's generally students going to Edinburgh University. You can get cheaper but there's usually a reason if it's less than £250. That flat is in prime student land.
  3. Unless I'm missing something, Stirling has appreciated against the dollar by more than 10% over the last year and slightly against the Euro. Assuming most of our imports are priced in or against those currencies or Chinese (which Stirling has also appreciated against) then I don't see how the devaluation effect can exist. That mechanism presumably dropped out 12 months after the major devaluation so unless there's some sort of lagging effect I would have thought that the slight appreciation of Stirling ought to have reduced imported inflation slightly (or more likely had a negligible effect).
  4. I think my brain just exploded. If someone buys that at anything like that price then I'm off to somewhere saner. Looks like that works out something like £3600 per sqm. On Peffermill Road! I suppose on the plus side you get to watch the occasional lorry crash into the railway bridge at Cameron Toll. Always good entertainment value in that.
  5. There seems to be a resurgence of activity on site there. An effing big hole in the ground now which, I take it, is where the new 'affordable' flats are going to be.
  6. Well I have one data point which is that my neighbour sold his house for slightly less than he paid for it in 2003. On the whole, sales in this particular East Midland village are somewhere around 2004 prices. That said, prices didn't go up by much after 2004 there. Peak prices in 2007 seem to be no more than 10-15% over 2004 prices. The mad period was 2001-2002 when prices seemed to go up by around 50%.
  7. That's roughly my experience. My saved list peaked at 75 and is down to around 60. Most weeks around 10-15% of the properties seem to sell so now fewer are selling but almost nothing coming onto it. My personal belief is that factoring out Edinburgh's crazy seasonal spikes that prices may stay within 5% of current for the next 2-3 years. That said, history implies that there will be another crisis of some sort in the next 2-3 years so I'm working on a fractal kind of randomness. Talking nominal values I would say there's a 50% chance of prices being within 5% the current price in Nov 2013,
  8. Rightmove's index doesn't measure that. People get awfully mixed up when they see price drops on the bee or propertysnake and wonder why it doesn't reflect the rightmove index. The Rightmove Index measures the prices that houses which are being newly marketed are offered at. Reductions in prices of houses that are already on sale aren't measured. So the index is a reasonable guide to sentiment though that sentiment is a mix of what owners believe they can get and what EAs feel they have to tell owners they can sell for in order to gain the instruction. So the index has got nothing to do wi
  9. That's the gamble. At the figures mentioned I would have considered fixing but I would also be thinking that I have something like 40% in equity so remortgaging to a fixed rate is always going to be an option when the time comes. What no one knows right now is whether we are in for a sustained period of low interest rates, a gradual climb or a spike. I personally would defend myself against a spike but would probably do it by taking the lowest available term tracker with no ERC and switch to a fix when needed. Of course it's all a moot point if he ended up buying the wrong house for him but
  10. These figures look odd to me. He had 70k in the bank and bought a house for 166K with a mortgage of about 100k. The 100k is 5times his salary which is therefore 20k and on that 20k he is supporting a wife and 4 kids. Previously they were paying 600 per month to a rent a place now they are 2,890 per year in mortgage interest (about 240 per month). Even assuming another £60 per month in insurance and maintenance on average then his interest repayments are 1/2 what he was paying in rent. Once you figure in capital repayments his mortgage (100k over 25 years) repayments are about £470. So his mont
  11. Except of course that there's a population of what 7 million? in London and perhaps 100K of them working in finance. The other 6.9 million have to live and work on salaries not that much different from what you would earn in Edinburgh doing the same job. In Edinburgh it is still possible to be earning less than the higher rate of tax, live in a nice part of town and have enough disposable income to enjoy a good quality of life. It is almost impossible to buy anywhere in those areas because current owners are sitting on their properties but at least the rent is ok. In London, no deal.
  12. I did include Merchiston in my list of the three possibilities. For example parts of Chingford were remarkably upmarket. Bromley is pretty Oxgangs like from my memory. The likes of Prestonpans are not a bad comparison. Large swathes of South London in particular are small, run-down terraces. I know people who commute from Prestonpans etc to work in Edinburgh because they can't afford to bring up families in Edinburgh. London is a lot like that only magnified. I know Niddrie pretty well. It's not as bad as it was but as a student in the 80s I used to play football at the sports stadium there.
  13. I lived in Bromley once. I do my best to forget about it. The nearest equivalent to Bromley and so on in an Edinburgh context would be a village some 10 to 15 miles outside of Edinburgh. Maybe Prestonpans or some such. I worked in London for about 2 years (lived in a mix of Chingford, Walthamstow and Bromley) and it's a completely different world to Edinburgh. If you imagined an Edinburgh where no one but the hyper rich lived within 2 miles of the city centre and all the rest lived in places that consisted of copies of either Niddrie, Oxgangs or Merchiston scattered in random lumps within 10
  14. Looking at the first flat compared to the first 3-bed semi one, the net internal area of the house seems to be around 55sq m (63 or so counting the attic) compared to around 90sq m for the flat, so we're talking about getting on for twice the area. The flat, (5/1) was ought off-plan in May 2003 for £200,000. Flat 1/2 which is likely to be broadly similar was bought for £211K in June 2003 and sold for £265K in Nov 2009. I would be surprised therefore if 5/1 sold for more than £270k. So the situation might not be as cut and dried as a simple room count would show.
  15. Well there are all the newish (2000-02) flats on Littlejohn Road in Greenbank. From looking at schedules there are quite a few which are the size of genuine 3-bedders in Merchiston if not bigger and they have garages. According to Our Property they seem to sell in the range of £330k. So that gives an idea of the premium that Merchiston attracts compared to Greenbank and the relative prices of bungalows vs flats.
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