Mikhail Liebenstein Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 (edited) I dug out this old Seasonal Adjustment chart by PropertyAnalyser http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...ost&id=7854 (original thread: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...howtopic=69906) As you can see the seasonal adjustment by the Halifax for Jan has historically been between +1.5% and 3%. However, for the last 3 years it has been in the range of 2.5% and 3.2% (2008). On this basis there is a good chance the 1.9% rise reported was actually a non seasonally adjusted fall of between -0.6% and -1.3%. I wonder what that does for Sibley? Edited February 7, 2009 by mikelivingstone Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1929crash Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 Thank you. That certainly puts matters in perspective. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle rogi Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 Thank you. That certainly puts matters in perspective. indeed i suspected as much but it is nice that someone took the time to provide some evidence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatdog Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 I dug out this old Seasonal Adjustment chart by PropertyAnalyserhttp://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...ost&id=7854 (original thread: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...howtopic=69906) As you can see the seasonal adjustment by the Halifax for Jan has historically been between +1.5% and 3%. However, for the last 3 years it has been in the range of 2.5% and 3.2% (2008). On this basis there is a good chance the 1.9% rise reported was actually a non seasonally adjusted fall of between -0.6% and -1.3%. I wonder what that does for Sibley? I really do not have a clue what you are talking about but nevertheless applaud you for your tenacity in attempting to dispel these vicious rumours that house prices are on the up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 Psychologically I wonder which would have a more negative impact on sentiment. A positive number which then turns negative again, or just another negative number in the first place. I suspect the former. When it goes neg. again there's going to be some v. unhappy bunnies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1929crash Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 Psychologically I wonder which would have a more negative impact on sentiment.A positive number which then turns negative again, or just another negative number in the first place. I suspect the former. When it goes neg. again there's going to be some v. unhappy bunnies. And some totally gutted trolls. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y-QUERK Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 Fantastic. ...what does it mean? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack's Creation Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 Mike, great find. Do you know for sure that this month's Halifax figures didn't have the seasonal adjustment applied to them? Or are they adjusted at a later date Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Monk Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 The sad thing is that some poor wooden-headed saps will be suckered by the Halifax's flim-flammery. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valerius Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 FTBs enquiries are up, is it a coincidence? You can not change sentiment in the market fact. Activities is picking up in the market. You have to accept it Halifax House Price Nov 2008 = £163,605 Halifax House Price Dec 2008 = £159,896 Halifax House Price Jan 2009 = £163,966 Surely these are the only figures worth taking note of as it shows you what has just happened better than what % figures and seasonal adjustments do. The actual increase is 2.5%, not 1.7% as reported. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatdog Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 And some totally gutted trolls. Please tell quite how your post relates to this thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IOW-here-I-come! Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 I dug out this old Seasonal Adjustment chart by PropertyAnalyserhttp://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...ost&id=7854 (original thread: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...howtopic=69906) As you can see the seasonal adjustment by the Halifax for Jan has historically been between +1.5% and 3%. However, for the last 3 years it has been in the range of 2.5% and 3.2% (2008). On this basis there is a good chance the 1.9% rise reported was actually a non seasonally adjusted fall of between -0.6% and -1.3%. I wonder what that does for Sibley? Are you sure that the seasonal adjustment is not included within the Halifax report (otherwise where would PropertyAnalyser get it from?) I want to believe this is the case, but I get the feeling that they just used a smaller adjustment than usual to stop it from looking to too incredible. I.e just a small 0.5-1.0% adjustment to bring it to 1.9% rather than 3-4% bringing it to 4.5% rise that month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatdog Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 The sad thing is that some poor wooden-headed saps will be suckered by the Halifax's flim-flammery. Yeah, that worries me too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 FTBs enquiries are up, is it a coincidence?You can not change sentiment in the market fact. Activities is picking up in the market. You have to accept it Halifax House Price Nov 2008 = £163,605 Halifax House Price Dec 2008 = £159,896 Halifax House Price Jan 2009 = £163,966 Surely these are the only figures worth taking note of as it shows you what has just happened better than what % figures and seasonal adjustments do. The actual increase is 2.5%, not 1.7% as reported. Looks like you're going to be one of them. Since when did FTBs have much sense? Have you forgotten so soon Northern Rock's market share in H1 '07? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kittingerjump Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 FTBs enquiries are up, is it a coincidence?You can not change sentiment in the market fact. Activities is picking up in the market. You have to accept it Halifax House Price Nov 2008 = £163,605 Halifax House Price Dec 2008 = £159,896 Halifax House Price Jan 2009 = £163,966 Based on asking prices. Option 1: buy now, pay later Option 2: save now, no pay later Option 3: rent now, squat later. This country is in deep deep financial doo-doo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatdog Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 Fantastic....what does it mean? Time will tell...I guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valerius Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 Looks like you're going to be one of them.Since when did FTBs have much sense? Have you forgotten so soon Northern Rock's market share in H1 '07? This is a confidence game, with interest rates at historically low levels it is bound to make some FTB'S with the cash think long and hard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kootenai Brown Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 This is a confidence game, with interest rates at historically low levels it is bound to make some FTB'S with the cash think long and hard. All three of them? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MOP Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 (edited) This is a confidence game, with interest rates at historically low levels it is bound to make some FTB'S with the cash think long and hard. A confidence game. The world is slipping from recession to depression. What will that do for your confidence game? Game over I reckon. Edited February 7, 2009 by Master Of Puppets Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkshire Lad Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 (edited) FTBs enquiries are up, is it a coincidence?You can not change sentiment in the market fact. Activities is picking up in the market. You have to accept it Halifax House Price Nov 2008 = £163,605 Halifax House Price Dec 2008 = £159,896 Halifax House Price Jan 2009 = £163,966 Surely these are the only figures worth taking note of as it shows you what has just happened better than what % figures and seasonal adjustments do. The actual increase is 2.5%, not 1.7% as reported. Who gives a crap about average prices, the ones that count are these from Natwest: Based on £163,966 Years: 25 Monthly: £811.21 Initial rate for 2 years 3.39% then 4.19% - 4.2% APR Deposit: 25% or 41,000 Arrangement: £559 Also remember that interest rates WILL go up. Who the heck can afford a deposit as a first time buyer. Add on money they owe to credit cards, and people are stuffed! Edited February 7, 2009 by Yorkshire Lad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grizzly bear Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 FTBs enquiries are up, is it a coincidence?You can not change sentiment in the market fact. Activities is picking up in the market. You have to accept it Halifax House Price Nov 2008 = £163,605 Halifax House Price Dec 2008 = £159,896 Halifax House Price Jan 2009 = £163,966 Surely these are the only figures worth taking note of as it shows you what has just happened better than what % figures and seasonal adjustments do. The actual increase is 2.5%, not 1.7% as reported. Firstly YES I do think its a coincidence that prices have gone "up" at the same time as FTB enquiries. I don't think ANYONE should be reading too much into one months numbers, up or down as EVERYONE acknowledges that transactions volumes are extremely low and hence noisy data. There will be activity picking up in the market especially as vendors start to get more realistic about prices but it would be too much of a leap in the current economic climate (ie big fears of redundancy, difficulties in getting credit) to suggest that prices will be going up any time soon. I don't think its that relevant what a month on month figure is... note that the YOY number was down to -17.2% down from -16.2% the prior month. Also note from the release: "prices fell for seven successive months in 1989 but subsequently increased in three of the first ten months in 1990 even though the overall trend in prices was downwards." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikhail Liebenstein Posted February 7, 2009 Author Share Posted February 7, 2009 (edited) Mike, great find. Do you know for sure that this month's Halifax figures didn't have the seasonal adjustment applied to them? Or are they adjusted at a later date I was careful to check that, the press release says in clear white on blue text "seasonally adjusted" See: http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/05...January2009.pdf Edited February 7, 2009 by mikelivingstone Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lotus eater Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 I dug out this old Seasonal Adjustment chart by PropertyAnalyserhttp://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...ost&id=7854 (original thread: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...howtopic=69906) As you can see the seasonal adjustment by the Halifax for Jan has historically been between +1.5% and 3%. However, for the last 3 years it has been in the range of 2.5% and 3.2% (2008). On this basis there is a good chance the 1.9% rise reported was actually a non seasonally adjusted fall of between -0.6% and -1.3%. I wonder what that does for Sibley? Went into an EA yesterday to enquire on a property. He excitedly quoted the Halifax figure and I told him to get lost. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valerius Posted February 7, 2009 Share Posted February 7, 2009 Who gives a crap about average prices, the ones that count are these from Natwest:Based on £163,966 Years: 25 Monthly: £811.21 Initial rate for 2 years 3.39% then 4.19% - 4.2% APR Deposit: 25% or 41,000 Arrangement: £559 Also remember that interest rates WILL go up. Who the heck can afford a deposit as a first time buyer. Add on money they owe to credit cards, and people are stuffed! The debts have to be paid back high IR in the current world climate would cause greater default so I would say you could see at least 2 years on below 2% rates and possibly not seeing 5% for a very long time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikhail Liebenstein Posted February 7, 2009 Author Share Posted February 7, 2009 Are you sure that the seasonal adjustment is not included within the Halifax report (otherwise where would PropertyAnalyser get it from?) I want to believe this is the case, but I get the feeling that they just used a smaller adjustment than usual to stop it from looking to too incredible. I.e just a small 0.5-1.0% adjustment to bring it to 1.9% rather than 3-4% bringing it to 4.5% rise that month. No, January is a quiet month and the SA made is positive, ie they literally add 2.5-3.2% to the average price. Without the SA, the average price is actually more like £159,047, which is less than December's £160,861. Ie non seasonally adjusted prices fell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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