If Anyone's Interested

[Number79]

This move in gold have lasted some time, the things that used to strenghten when the dollar weakened have failed to do so this weak, instead we have had gold, yesterday and today. I sold stocks and moved into gold today. I have felt gold is about to break eighter down or up for some time.

I don't know what's happening, but I have noticed one thing that is interesting, the moves in gold lately, as I see it is a pure safe haven move now, with treasuries.

you not see a turning point for the $ and bonds mid month?

gold is definately ready for a big move, like a coiled spring, which way are you betting right now?

[Pearshape]

heard nothing, all seems to be figures released today from the us or maybe banking concerns. I think that if we close over 975 then we have our answer about gold.

The dollar hit for the third time the 78.80 barrier,this was a signal of failure.

Next week we could see 74. We could get a pullback from 980 to 960. Silver, as always, should be the one to watch as an early warning here. I have been working on a theory about copper preceeding silver as a warning system but is a lot hit and miss for now. Would appreciate your opinions if HAM doesn't mind a small pm discussions here. As I would appreciate anyones analysis, after all everything is related isn't it?

Atleast you have held a view and stuck with it because you know how to trade in that direction. I keep being right and still lose because my stops are hit on a bounce. Still learning how much to commit and how wide to set stops. How bad is that, betting the right way and still losing

Ddint see if you use point and figure charts but these are pretty good, but they follow trends and not intraday movement a such.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?...,P&listNum=

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?...;usd,PLTADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G

[Number79]

Ddint see if you use point and figure charts but these are pretty good, but they follow trends and not intraday movement a such.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?...,P&listNum=

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?...;usd,PLTADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G

nice charts, thank you.

interesting opinion and charts here at zero hedge, refreshing as no from a bug.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-gold-panic

[Georgia O'Keeffe]

you not see a turning point for the $ and bonds mid month?

gold is definately ready for a big move, like a coiled spring, which way are you betting right now?

ive been following gold quite closely for the last couple of years building a few long positions over the last few months.

From what i see it has just broken out to the upside of a contracting triangle that has been developing over the last 6 months. It will probably retest the break at around 960/965 over the next week or so but then it should move strongly north over the coming months with a target of about 1250. The fact the pattern it has broken out of is a triangle which is always a penultimate formation suggests this is the final rally in the uptrend for gold and if it reaches the 1250 target, it looks good for a fib retrace of the entire 8 year bull market back to mid 500's but clearly i wouldnt bet the house on that until it gets to 1250 and i can see if there are any major divergences on any indicators on the monthly charts

[Number79]

ive been following gold quite closely for the last couple of years building a few long positions over the last few months.

From what i see it has just broken out to the upside of a contracting triangle that has been developing over the last 6 months. It will probably retest the break at around 960/965 over the next week or so but then it should move strongly north over the coming months with a target of about 1250. The fact the pattern it has broken out of is a triangle which is always a penultimate formation suggests this is the final rally in the uptrend for gold and if it reaches the 1250 target, it looks good for a fib retrace of the entire 8 year bull market back to mid 500's but clearly i wouldnt bet the house on that until it gets to 1250 and i can see if there are any major divergences on any indicators on the monthly charts

contracting triangle is what I am seeing, coiled spring and am expecting 1200 - 1400.

don't see 500 ever again. don't see a major retracement without a vast improvement in things. don't see any improvements anytime soon. gonna be interesting though.

[R K]

Excellent stuff.

Whilst we're looking at P&F charts, I don't know if anyone has noticed but SPX:GOLD (forgive me HAM for I have sinned) i.e. the spx to gold ratio failed to break above the year high from early Jan at 1.1 - I think we can now consider that as resistance until/if it gives way.

It has been pulling back to breakout/support (?) at 1.0 for the last week. It will be interesting to see if that support holds or gold 'overtakes' SPX numerically. (It's all dollar related of course).

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?...,P&listNum=

or if you prefer the DOW industrials then it hit resistance dead on 10

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?...GOLD,PLTAWANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G

Edited September 2, 2009 by For no one

[Georgia O'Keeffe]

contracting triangle is what I am seeing, coiled spring and am expecting 1200 - 1400.

don't see 500 ever again. don't see a major retracement without a vast improvement in things. don't see any improvements anytime soon. gonna be interesting though.

like you say, will be interesting.

Technical reason for the fall upon reaching 1250 is based on wave analysis. I think the orthodox bull market top is March 08. The whole move since then is correctional and will last well into 2012(an expanding flat) so whilst i think 1250 is on the cards the orthodox top will still be March 08's 1030 and the likely retrace of the move from 250 to 1030 will be a fib move of circa 60% which will trace out the final part of the expanding flat.

Thats purely a technical viewpoint but i like it from an economic view point aswell because i see deflation as the only outcome over the next few years which will really kick in in 2011 & 2012, if it does then Gold is still an asset effectively and in hardcore deflation will fall like everything else relative to cash

[Number79]

like you say, will be interesting.

Technical reason for the fall upon reaching 1250 is based on wave analysis. I think the orthodox bull market top is March 08. The whole move since then is correctional and will last well into 2012(an expanding flat) so whilst i think 1250 is on the cards the orthodox top will still be March 08's 1030 and the likely retrace of the move from 250 to 1030 will be a fib move of circa 60% which will trace out the final part of the expanding flat.

Thats purely a technical viewpoint but i like it from an economic view point aswell because i see deflation as the only outcome over the next few years which will really kick in in 2011 & 2012, if it does then Gold is still an asset effectively and in hardcore deflation will fall like everything else relative to cash

thats the thing about wave analysis, everyone gets to draw their own waves. I think that deflation is a myth, at best another way of explaining inflation relative to currency issues. It is going to take some major developments ala schiff etc to move things monumentally, not sure but don't see it as impossible. Been hangin with bugs too much so am pretty bearish, got me tins o beans an all . I don't really understand how the coming move could be down but then that invariably means that it will be . I am long pm's here although not with the conviction of some. Am like a rabbit in the headlights here.

Friend of mine tells that he broke his daily record. Made over $2,500 daytrading today. Wohoo for him, maybe small change to some here but would be a great result for me.

[R K]

I don't know if you wanted an update on my indicators

Definately! Thanks for going to the trouble - great posts (I follow your blogspot too btw) . I'm stuck between Prechter's dollar bounce call and gold tripping buy orders as it takes out this resistance. Perhaps USD will feign a breakdown and for some reason then reverse. We have this G20 meeting in a couple of weeks which could be the trigger point. Are the markets in a mood to force their hand? I am wondering what outcome they might require by triggering another equity sell off. We've had the bank recaps, the bailouts, the mark to model changes. Any thoughts?

I think I agree about possible timing too. Perhaps we're due one more SPX visit back towards 1030/40ish ?

EDIT: FTSE:XBP weekly has put in a red candlestick which pretty much coincides with the overhead channel line. Stochastics looks to be about to turn down - Interestingly, we don't appear to often get a 'run along' of the stochs above 80 - so it would appear FTSE has peaked v sterling for the time being. So if it isn't because FTSE is going to retrace, then it would signal a bounce in sterling relative to USD - Perhaps Prechter has got it wrong here?? If it isn't because sterling is about to rise then it implies FTSE will need to pullback.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$FTS...id=p60421153314

Edited September 3, 2009 by For no one

[polionamen]

Does anybody know the Fleet Street Newsletter ?

It was mentioned on the home page.

Any good ?

[Crash Buyer]

Perhaps we're due one more SPX visit back towards 1030/40ish ?

My interpretation of recent gold moves is that it's catching up with stock markets, i.e. the consensus view is still supportive of higher stocks in the short term. Medium term still bearish but I'm not trading this position yet.

I'm not convinced that the relative weakness of stocks in the last few days signals a change of trend - i'd like to see at least a 3% daily drop on any of the US / European indices before I'd reconsider my view.

Edited September 3, 2009 by Crash Buyer

[carseller]

I consider even upping my stake in gold today.

The 3m libor vs feds funds rate interest rate is very low, around 23 bps, or bubble conditions. I think gold is ready to blow up. Right month. good technicals, etc.

I think it might be right to go for gold now.

Maybe this will be like the earlier moves, just down again, and inside a range, but it could also be the break. like with the nasdaq in 1999. If that happens , they will be unable to stimulate the economy as much as they want to, and might move right into a double dip, with higher interest rates in a bad economy.

Edited September 3, 2009 by carseller

[Pearshape]

Always worth keeping an eye on this pnf chart - its often the leading indicator

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$TRAN,P

and finally on this

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?...,P&listNum=

(note the latest projection on this!!)

both have an impact on gold and stock indicies

Personally, if you follow jim rogers comments, we are heading (as if we didnt really know), currency crisis' of both dollar and gbp. I am not sure what the impact is going to be, apart from expecting gold to rise - if the efffect is inflationary I think (and stress think) indicies will rise, so we could see gold and indicies rise.

I am not in any position, and am just waiting for 2011 before i start feeding anything in. The ftse over the last 19 years has formed a left shoulder and a head, and i believe we are forming the right shoulder know, with the finale in 2011. Id rarther be at cash than be in this mess!!

Sorry if the charts have been posted before.

[carseller]

With the new leader in japan, they won't even have the dollar as an reserve asset there, if he keeps his word. There will be a currency crisis. I suspect the market is still trending higher, it seems the correction ended today. Atleast it seems possible..

[R K]

Always worth keeping an eye on this pnf chart - its often the leading indicator

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$TRAN,P

and finally on this

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?...,P&listNum=

(note the latest projection on this!!)

both have an impact on gold and stock indicies

Personally, if you follow jim rogers comments, we are heading (as if we didnt really know), currency crisis' of both dollar and gbp. I am not sure what the impact is going to be, apart from expecting gold to rise - if the efffect is inflationary I think (and stress think) indicies will rise, so we could see gold and indicies rise.

I am not in any position, and am just waiting for 2011 before i start feeding anything in. The ftse over the last 19 years has formed a left shoulder and a head, and i believe we are forming the right shoulder know, with the finale in 2011. Id rarther be at cash than be in this mess!!

Sorry if the charts have been posted before.

Thanks PS. I keep an eye on Trans too, and am very interested in similar P&F charts you come across or where you notice particular support/resistance activity. I tend to agree with you about trying to wait for better opportunities after this mess has unfolded. There's so much manipulation going on. I've thought VIX has been putting in a bottom for a couple of weeks now, but I've thought that before so am still a tad cautious. That 40 area was a fairly key support so it would make sense to at least revisit it for a test.

Edit: Have been out most of the day so just having a catch up. I notice spot gold topped out at 998.70 this evening, so I think we've collectively called that pretty well, and SPX did go on a bit of a run back up, which I think is normal even if the sell off continues. But this is where it gets more difficult I think.........I'm wondering if Gartman may be correct and gold will run up without any dollar sell off, but for other reasons. Perhaps this IMF SDR pump is responsible. So if the major currencies are being allocated according to weighting you could perhaps expect them to stay fairly stable and allow that money to partly flow back into gold (ETFs and futures) - And equities?!?!

Edited September 3, 2009 by For no one

[azogar]

Thanks p.p. - I enjoyed that. I think it's a good assessment of where we are. It's going to be interesting how far down this retracement/consolidation, whatever it ends up being, in equities goes at this time.

As an aside, do you think he did the voice-over for Brains in the original Thunderbirds TV series?

apologies if already posted but Dave Skarica is on cwr this week

[R K]

That's how the giant squid moves through the water.......

So let's have some fun:- 970/5 low next week, followed by 950 low on the 24th September.

Edited September 4, 2009 by For no one

[R K]

http://seekingalpha.com/article/159999-wor...lus?source=feed

The worst of the deflationary force form the drop in WTIC will drop out in 3-4 weeks time. The bounce has mitigated that. I suspect we may now see the 'C' wave as oil is managed down into the end of the year in line with last year's continued falls........there is then scope for increases into 2010, if required, similar to the first half of 2009 back up to the 70-90 area which wouldn't be unduly inflationary.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTI...id=p00750275165

[Number79]

The worst of the deflationary force form the drop in WTIC will drop out in 3-4 weeks time. The bounce has mitigated that. I suspect we may now see the 'C' wave as oil is managed down into the end of the year in line with last year's continued falls........there is then scope for increases into 2010, if required, similar to the first half of 2009 back up to the 70-90 area which wouldn't be unduly inflationary.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTI...id=p00750275165

any opinions on when/where natural gas will bottom and provide a buying op?

[Number79]

[/i] Find out exactly what your mate does and see if it is down to risk taking and leverage or skill in reading markets. Let us know.

Skill. Tight stops and tight targets, no greed and all positions of $100 per point.

[R K]

Yes - saw the charts and I like your analysis. I was thinking CPI in broad terms, yes. (Sorry Richyc I don't know about nat. gas; I was thinking aloud as to where oil may be headed).

How about:-

Deflubblation (copyright RK, 2009).

[R K]

Hey - that's not fair - you can't copyright the name!

Your search - deflubblation - did not match any documents

Too late!

[ReggiePerrin]

any opinions on when/where natural gas will bottom and provide a buying op?

I'm also very interested in any opinions? .. especially since I bought into LON:NGAS this morning. Of the total amount I intend to purchase of this ETF I've put half in now, and now just need to time the second purchase.

I figured that if the airlines can hedge their avgas fuel bills, I might as well hedge my home gas bill All I need now is an EFt that tracks Nike trainers, Ballet lessons, and other assorted kids clubs, and 'must haves'.

Edited September 4, 2009 by ReggiePerrin

[R K]

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com...d-is-s-500.html

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/ShLj...ost+Decades.png

He makes a good case doesn't he?

US market would appear to be Japan in late '99.

Not sure where that puts Japan today.

[Number79]

anyone come across this yet? an interesting investigative piece about how the fed has been monetizing debt.

http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/shell-g...zing-debt/25806