R K Posted September 23, 2009 Share Posted September 23, 2009 Do you think if we sliced and diced it enough that one of them could make us a profit and the rest we could write off? Perfect. Do you have JPM's number to hand? They should be able to find us £200m or so.......... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted September 23, 2009 Share Posted September 23, 2009 (edited) A subscription to the hotairmail and (rk) trading system costs nothing. Just 20% of any profits you might make i.e. effectively 'nothing'. Interested - pm me. You are aware that there is a size 7 font aren't you? So it looks like Goldilocks Bernanke has saved the day. Easy innit. Edit: I'm off to Tesco now to see if I can get a refund on these tins of tuna and loo rolls. Laters high rollers! Edited September 23, 2009 by Red Karma Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Number79 Posted September 23, 2009 Share Posted September 23, 2009 Edit: I'm off to Tesco now to see if I can get a refund on these tins of tuna and loo rolls. Laters high rollers! you two crack me up. sign me up for the seminars. Thanks both for answering my questions earlier, am still looking into what was said. rk, am retiring my shiny metal long here and may offload some physical. Thinking price turns tomorrow or atleast very soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pearshape Posted September 23, 2009 Share Posted September 23, 2009 Anyone gonna post the black friday thread -lol http://market-ticker.denninger.net/ Still think we will hit 5406 though ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pearshape Posted September 23, 2009 Share Posted September 23, 2009 There was a double top on the ftse futures at 19:35 and 19:36. Looks like a sell off, THEY know everyone is watching it, need a further bear squeeze I think. 5406, is a key level juncture of two lines that currently define the trends, they tend to hit them on sector rotations, so depending on the sector they choose, normally miners, it will go up. Remember a crazy futures price about a year ago when it just exploded up whilst the dow dived - remarkable thing to see - sector rotation. Might be wrong - but we will see by end of next week latest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted September 23, 2009 Share Posted September 23, 2009 you two crack me up. sign me up for the seminars. Thanks both for answering my questions earlier, am still looking into what was said. rk, am retiring my shiny metal long here and may offload some physical. Thinking price turns tomorrow or atleast very soon. We have our first customer! Ham - you prepare the slides and handouts - I'll get his bank details. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pl1 Posted September 23, 2009 Share Posted September 23, 2009 This was posted on the main forum about dollar carry trade, it might get lost by tomorrow so I thought you might want to read it (if you haven't already): http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1253774700.php Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted September 24, 2009 Share Posted September 24, 2009 Anyone gonna post the black friday thread -lol http://market-ticker.denninger.net/ Still think we will hit 5406 though ! snip.......The flood of monetization that powered the market from 666 to 1070 is ending. We're going to taper this program down, mostly because we're rapidly becoming the entire market, and that's bad news (never mind that we might wind up with ALL of the credit risk, especially in the MBS market, which is substantial! That would suck.) snip.... The only important sentence in the entire announcement is in bold. Ignore it at your peril. Nice shelf to get short at; take it down if we break materially over 1080. Either economic fundamentals assert themselves as deserving of these valuations or we're a solid 2,000 DOW points (and 200 SPX points) or more above where we should be. As a trade the risk:reward looks better than it has in months; you're risking ~10-20 handles on the SPX to potentially capture 200! Can anybody not see this though? 200 off the SPX puts it back at that 870 support; interesting that KD isn't wanting to call anything lower than that right now. Does he really think that's the end of it I wonder or is he just playing the percentages? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pearshape Posted September 24, 2009 Share Posted September 24, 2009 Can anybody not see this though? 200 off the SPX puts it back at that 870 support; interesting that KD isn't wanting to call anything lower than that right now. Does he really think that's the end of it I wonder or is he just playing the percentages? Could be the support is inflation, which will naturally increase stock values - personally from the turn, its down till mid 2011 - just my view Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted September 24, 2009 Share Posted September 24, 2009 Tell me honestly. You havent gone short yet have you? You are supposed to be waiting for confirmation remember. (you may think that such an approach loses you money - and you could be right of course). EDIT: btw - what signals are you going to use again before (when) you go short? EDIT2: I went down to 20% invested this a.m. (thought I'd better come clean) Who me? You know I am, yep. Too early as usual, but I think this has been quite an exceptional few months. I wouldn't recommend it though - obviously - It's been wrong. I want to see where we're at after the next decent low. Denninger's 200 points off would be a good point to re-assess for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Number79 Posted September 24, 2009 Share Posted September 24, 2009 rk, am retiring my shiny metal long here and may offload some physical. Thinking price turns tomorrow or atleast very soon. If I may go all bubb and daddy bear on this, woohoo for me. any opinions on sterling from here? not fx'ing now but need to buy some dollars, knew I should have done it at 1.65, poo poo for me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Number79 Posted September 24, 2009 Share Posted September 24, 2009 dr bubb has called a deflationary turn. DBear continues to trumpet hyperinflation.Dollar strengthening and all that entails looks to be the balance of probability right now. I meant qouting myself when finally proven correct, something they both do regularly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crash Buyer Posted September 25, 2009 Share Posted September 25, 2009 any opinions on sterling from here? not fx'ing now but need to buy some dollars, knew I should have done it at 1.65, poo poo for me Well it's just fallen below $1.60. If you're convinced that the short term equity trend is down, then with risk aversion I'd say the sooner the better. I wouldn't worry unless you going to be spending thousands, 5c is just 3%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted September 25, 2009 Share Posted September 25, 2009 A little jazzzzz club for this Friday afternoon. Nice............ http://broadcast.ino.com/education/sp500twoforces/ There's some other free stuff on the video page. Great....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted September 25, 2009 Share Posted September 25, 2009 (edited) I'll post the gold one for Richyc instead...... http://broadcast.ino.com/education/goldcycle921/ Edit: Apologies my friend.....I think I missed the link to your post on 21st. Normally I diligently read all your posts, sometimes more than once. Edited September 25, 2009 by Red Karma Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted September 25, 2009 Share Posted September 25, 2009 (edited) I'm deeply offendedNOT Interesting action today. Or am I imagining it? The proprietary trading system is tantalisingly close to telling you to sell up the last of your longs. (lol) Glad I got out of BDEV - have you seen them go in the last couple of days? Good good. I was a little concerned I might have to follow you through the kitchens to get a word for a moment.......... What are you wondering if you are imagining? Have you noticed TNX is coming back to that 33 support area? Wonder if it's going to bounce again? Is this the buying dip or have we just seen the selling top? BDEV: Yes - I think you should start a thread in the main forum on how you sold at the top. Everyone else would. Edited September 25, 2009 by Red Karma Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted September 25, 2009 Share Posted September 25, 2009 I was mainly referring to the indecision on spx - fight between the bulls and the bears.Hadn't noticed tnx. Have to say I've started paying less attention to it because of qe. But with dollar strengthening and Vix rising we seem to have the lot. Selling top. (or the system is pants ) EDIT: I was ashamed of myself for trumpeting it here tbh. It's just that it doesn't happen very often and I got excited lol. EDIT2: although I won't consider it a success unless I buy it back cheaper later on. Two ways to account for a profit - one is to buy low / sell high. The other less well known hotairmail aim is to try and sell high / buy low. You see - I agree. But then it looks very similar to the other sell offs that turned into buying dips. I guess we'll find out later tonight or perhaps Monday/Tuesday which it turns into. VIX especially has looked like it's been bottoming since end of May and each spike up gets reversed. One of these days it won't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted September 25, 2009 Share Posted September 25, 2009 (edited) Thinking about it, those dips after July 13th were a bit early in the RED KARMA and hotairmail cycle weren't they?Also the slides used to give a holisitic view of the cycle indicate they were false alarms. (I'm honing them in the light of experience - or is that known as retrofit?). Which brings us neatly onto the subject of 'stops'..........But let's first take a 15 minute coffee break where I shall be on hand to take your bank details or even straight cash/gold/silver/Tbonds if you prefer........In the next session we will be looking at price targets......... (I have a very good feeling about this you know) Edit: NW today on sterling (XBP). Chart at bottom and last para for summary. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article13736.html Edited September 25, 2009 by Red Karma Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Number79 Posted September 25, 2009 Share Posted September 25, 2009 I'll post the gold one for Richyc instead...... http://broadcast.ino.com/education/goldcycle921/ Edit: Apologies my friend.....I think I missed the link to your post on 21st. Normally I diligently read all your posts, sometimes more than once. closed after posting, pretty pleased about hitting the top. Offloading some physical, price still looking good given sterling decline, just annoyed that I need to buy dollars but didn't do it yet. Obvoiously long was $ and physical is £ so working out ok so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Number79 Posted September 25, 2009 Share Posted September 25, 2009 (edited) deleted Edited September 26, 2009 by richyc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted September 25, 2009 Share Posted September 25, 2009 The ssec is becoming ever important these days. Can lead in fact I think.... Ok, I'm looking at it - Where are you saying it's leading? Am I looking at it leading by around 6 weeks with the SSEC top first week in August correlating with the SPX now? It could be an inverse H&S developing with first support in mid-august, then the late august support appearing to cover that late May gap, and we're now back on resistance possibly, but it's a little messy. It sold off again just under the 50 and is now under 20 and 50 and they're both falling so perhaps we have further downside on the way. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SSE...id=p01418550007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted September 25, 2009 Share Posted September 25, 2009 (edited) Transports have pulled back to their breakout - ytd volume high it seems last weds. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?...,P&listNum= http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TRA...id=p18970562454 Next week is almost certain to be interesting now with support levels and 20 ma's in play. I missed the Marc Faber iview earlier in the week that Pearshape mentioned but I think this is probably it. http://marcfaberchannel.blogspot.com/ Nothing new especially. Calls Bernanke a criminal again - Right at the end he suggests SPX may go to 1250 or 850, but won't be drawn on which will come first although suggests if it goes to 850 first then it will go to 1250 thereafter since BB will print to make it so. I think we could do well to incorporate his prediction methodology in our system. Covering all the outcomes in every possible sequence seems very sensible. Edited September 25, 2009 by Red Karma Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted September 26, 2009 Share Posted September 26, 2009 I don't understand. There's no mention at all of 'the cycle'. I'm not sure you actually believe in it? Or perhaps you're keeping it secret? Wise move. Agree about the inflation point. But the corollary of that is interest rate policy and the ensuing hunt for yield. Whilst price deflation is devastating for company profits and thereby markets, I believe there is presently too much liquidity in the world and that before we have the deleveraging downleg, we will have money swishing around hunting for yield and creating bubbles through their own momentum. Money has to be destroyed and this will happen thru' the bust stages of each bubble. My guess is, if we have a good mini correction/slowdown to end Oct, we will experience a moonshoot to Christmas. I have this horrible thought that the ftse could break its previous highs next year - despite the fundamentals being so poor. Now that would be worrying. I think I was responding in broad brush terms to a post on wither house prices on another thread. So I was less concerned about short term timing. I suppose the question is what happens to the existing liquidity and for how long will it continue. BB appears to already be reversing/giving signals about reversing some of the schemes. We know we have some pretty serious fiscal tightening in the pipeline and even if they try and delay it the markets know it's got to come eventually - if it's not voluntary or enough they'll force it. But I agree, these volaflation/deflatabubbles could pop up anywhere. I would have thought the risk/reward on equities in the near-term is looking rather stretched though. I'm suprised you see the possibility of new highs next year but as Marc Faber points out - We'd need to ask BB what his plans are on that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted September 26, 2009 Share Posted September 26, 2009 (edited) re rk's sig...moneyweek say oil more likely to trade at $40 than $100 in the future. In any case, we've been saying for a while that the crude oil price is more likely to see the $40-$50 region before it sees $100 again. http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/stock...tion-93912.aspx I like John Stepek. Although I didn't know that was their line. I went for $200 'cause it gives me more leeway if this dollar carry/liquidity pump keeps going for longer. Mark my words You've said that twice now. I'm getting worried (about you). I've still not read that Richard Thaler book - 'Nudge'. But I see Prechter is going big on socionomics with his website http://www.socionomics.net/ It's a fascinating subject area but there is just soooo much to read with all this stuff. Edited September 26, 2009 by Red Karma Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Number79 Posted September 26, 2009 Share Posted September 26, 2009 I'll post the gold one for Richyc instead...... http://broadcast.ino.com/education/goldcycle921/ watched this properly today, had an afternoon in the pub yesterday, seems much clearer today thanks for the link, have listened to this guy much? are you a member? just wondering what his record is like. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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