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Nicholas Cage

Big Week Ahead

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Monday - Rightmove figures,

Edit: Tentative Bank Rescue Scheme public announcement

Tuesday - CPI/RPI Inflation change and Mervyn King speech

Edit: US Presidential Inauguration 16:00 GMT

Wednesday - Unemployment claims and MPC minutes

Friday - preliminary GDP figure and Retail Sales

http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php

The Downturn will be over by Friday if the government accept the first

draft of GDP, Recession will replace it as the offical term.

The Government also provided exemptions to the release times of CPI

, GDP so will be getting them possibly a few days before everyone else.

Expect the spin machine to be gaining even more power than the bank

rescue scheme had.

Until you've seen New Labour operating at full power with early release figures

and press leaks, you haven't seen spin at all.

:lol:

Edited by Mr. Parry

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And to add to the confusion, probably a short term but stong "feel good" factor around Obama's inauguration which might explain why markets don't react as negatively to the bad news as we expect them to.

The Barack Bounce will probably fade pretty quickly but it might leave us scratching our heads for a while ......

Of course, the contrary view is that the market held up pretty well in the face of dire news in the last few weeks so we might be in a "buy the rumour and sell the news" environment with respect to the Barack Bounce and we could see a sharp sell-off very soon after he is sworn into office.

Tricky times these. No obvious short term trade even though I am pretty certain that the long term trend is to much lower levels.

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Monday - Rightmove figures

Tuesday - CPI/RPI Inflation change and Mervyn King speech

Wednesday - Unemployment claims and MPC minutes

Friday - preliminary GDP figure and Retail Sales

http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php

The Downturn will be over by Friday if the government accept the first

draft of GDP, Recession will replace it as the offical term.

The Government also provided exemptions to the release times of CPI

, GDP so will be getting them possibly a few days before everyone else.

Expect the spin machine to be gaining even more power than the bank

rescue scheme had.

Until you've seen New Labour operating at full power with early release figures

and press leaks, you haven't seen spin at all.

:lol:

Hey, Mr Parry,

I have been forced off-line through some dispute between my landlord and his telephone provider and my ability to influence getting a new line apart from Toucan to whom they subscribed (which, incidentally, is the worst telecom provider I have ever had the misfortune to come across - even worse than TalkTalk which is saying something.) Something to do with Data Protection Act, which as far as I have been able to discern has more to do with a way of dumping responsibility than protecting the individual. I have eventually managed to get a BT line re-established and my Virgin broadband reconnected but not without a load of aggro and threatening calls from Toucan who messed it up in the firt instance. It has taken them 4 months to respond to my lanlord's request to terminate the contract and invite me, the incoming tenant, to continue with their service. My best advice is to never touch Toucan with a bargepole - they have taken the concept of toucan-play-at-this-game to the point where I would prefer to never engage with the bird-brained twits.

Anyway...where was I? Ah! I remember! Just wanted to say - nice to see you back. Last time I was able to log onto HPC you had done a runner.....or something that had similar effect.

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The Downturn will be over by Friday if the government accept the first

draft of GDP, Recession will replace it as the offical term.

Thank god for that. Hopefully they wont forget to tell the BBC. Everytime they use the 'd' word I have an undying urge to throw something at the TV.

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I forecast a horrible week ahead for sterling.

But then again maybe not, I just keep forgetting the "sound fundamentals".

Indeed.............'a low debt economy like the United Kingdom' - (he was in a dinner jacket when he said that)

also the chance of Club Med ( :( ) going for a winter swim..... via the cliff top

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Indeed.............'a low debt economy like the United Kingdom' - (he was in a dinner jacket when he said that)

also the chance of Club Med ( :( ) going for a winter swim..... via the cliff top

Hmmm, so much going on at the moment ..... I take it that you're a little concerned.

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Tempted to do a runner myself after doing my tax return. JMJ! :ph34r::ph34r::ph34r: Am seriously considering a move East. My cousin in E Europe pays 10% tax (and the authorities are far from strict when it comes to enforcement). Just can't stomach another tax bill like this one.

Edited by gruffydd

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Tricky times these. No obvious short term trade even though I am pretty certain that the long term trend is to much lower levels.

I agree. Metaphorically I have crawled into a hole and pulled a big stone over the hole until the storm passes over my invetsments My only activity over the next 7 days will be emptying my bank accounts of all cash.

I just have a horrible feeling this bailout is not going to go smoothly. I think Parliament may demand to have safeguards in place before the next phase of the bailout and also demand to know exactly where the money has gone that has already been pumped in. Indeed, the Govt may in the end be forced to nationalise everything before the accounting year end if they do not get the plan through ASAP.

Surely a possible exposure of £200bn credit insurance is not going to go through with opposition? Vince Cable is on TV as a write and he is certainly asking some pretty pertinent questions. More emergency questions in Parliament perhaps.

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Erm... Tuesday... Presidential inauguration.

This is cleverly timed to coincide with the day that Brown intends to publish the details of the UK's second bank bailout.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/UKNews1/idUK...0090118?sp=true

Prime Minister Gordon Brown said details of the package would be announced "in the next day or two."

Nice timing.

Edited by A.steve

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But how can the banks admit to 'bad stuff' they have no way of calculating? And who could trust them anyway if they did come up with some half-baked estimate. The only way forward is government seizure of the banks, and an independent evaluation of the current position.

PS. I would prefer the banks to stop lending to householders completely, and only at a far lower level to businesses. Debt is slavery and all that. But hey, don't think they're going to go with this.

Edited by gruffydd

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But how can the banks admit to liabilities they have no way of calculating?

Their liabilities are worth 100%. Their assets are tending towards 0%. Given the 40x leverage, they became insolvent when their assets dropped below 97.5% on average which happened a long time ago .....

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But how can the banks admit to liabilities they have no way of calculating?

Their liabilities are worth 100%. Their assets are tending towards 0%. Given the 40x leverage, they became insolvent when their assets dropped below 97.5% on average which happened a long time ago .....

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Wholesale nationalisation seems to be their only option. That much is pretty obvious. Seriously. How much longer can this charade continue? And how are the banks still functioning while they're technically insolvent? Huh?

And how does the ever-deluded Gordon Clown think that a second bail-out will work - British Banks lend internationally for goodness sake - how on earth will his miserable little bail-out have any impact whatsoever. The guy's COMPLETELY OFF HIS ROCKER!

Edited by gruffydd

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Wholesale nationalisation seems to be their only option. That much is pretty obvious. Seriously. How much longer can this charade continue? And how are the banks still functioning while they're technically insolvent? Huh?

"All banks are always insolvent it's just a matter of time before people notice it" - M. Rothbard.

I'd be amazed if the whole system isn't nationalised within the month.

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Hmmm, Shriti Vadera - Gordon Brown's key economic adviser, who is busy crafting Bail Out 2.0 - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shriti_Vadera

http://uk.reuters.com/article/marketsNewsU...I30148120090118

If you drop the "r" from her forename, you get an apt description of the situation that we are in ...

UBS have blown themselves up. Seems to be a good training ground to try to blow up an entire country next ......

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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