Nicholas Cage Posted January 18, 2009 Share Posted January 18, 2009 (edited) Monday - Rightmove figures, Edit: Tentative Bank Rescue Scheme public announcement Tuesday - CPI/RPI Inflation change and Mervyn King speech Edit: US Presidential Inauguration 16:00 GMT Wednesday - Unemployment claims and MPC minutes Friday - preliminary GDP figure and Retail Sales http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php The Downturn will be over by Friday if the government accept the first draft of GDP, Recession will replace it as the offical term. The Government also provided exemptions to the release times of CPI , GDP so will be getting them possibly a few days before everyone else. Expect the spin machine to be gaining even more power than the bank rescue scheme had. Until you've seen New Labour operating at full power with early release figures and press leaks, you haven't seen spin at all. Edited January 18, 2009 by Mr. Parry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LuckyOne Posted January 18, 2009 Share Posted January 18, 2009 And to add to the confusion, probably a short term but stong "feel good" factor around Obama's inauguration which might explain why markets don't react as negatively to the bad news as we expect them to. The Barack Bounce will probably fade pretty quickly but it might leave us scratching our heads for a while ...... Of course, the contrary view is that the market held up pretty well in the face of dire news in the last few weeks so we might be in a "buy the rumour and sell the news" environment with respect to the Barack Bounce and we could see a sharp sell-off very soon after he is sworn into office. Tricky times these. No obvious short term trade even though I am pretty certain that the long term trend is to much lower levels. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Methinkshe Posted January 18, 2009 Share Posted January 18, 2009 Monday - Rightmove figuresTuesday - CPI/RPI Inflation change and Mervyn King speech Wednesday - Unemployment claims and MPC minutes Friday - preliminary GDP figure and Retail Sales http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php The Downturn will be over by Friday if the government accept the first draft of GDP, Recession will replace it as the offical term. The Government also provided exemptions to the release times of CPI , GDP so will be getting them possibly a few days before everyone else. Expect the spin machine to be gaining even more power than the bank rescue scheme had. Until you've seen New Labour operating at full power with early release figures and press leaks, you haven't seen spin at all. Hey, Mr Parry, I have been forced off-line through some dispute between my landlord and his telephone provider and my ability to influence getting a new line apart from Toucan to whom they subscribed (which, incidentally, is the worst telecom provider I have ever had the misfortune to come across - even worse than TalkTalk which is saying something.) Something to do with Data Protection Act, which as far as I have been able to discern has more to do with a way of dumping responsibility than protecting the individual. I have eventually managed to get a BT line re-established and my Virgin broadband reconnected but not without a load of aggro and threatening calls from Toucan who messed it up in the firt instance. It has taken them 4 months to respond to my lanlord's request to terminate the contract and invite me, the incoming tenant, to continue with their service. My best advice is to never touch Toucan with a bargepole - they have taken the concept of toucan-play-at-this-game to the point where I would prefer to never engage with the bird-brained twits. Anyway...where was I? Ah! I remember! Just wanted to say - nice to see you back. Last time I was able to log onto HPC you had done a runner.....or something that had similar effect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Renter Posted January 18, 2009 Share Posted January 18, 2009 The Downturn will be over by Friday if the government accept the firstdraft of GDP, Recession will replace it as the offical term. Thank god for that. Hopefully they wont forget to tell the BBC. Everytime they use the 'd' word I have an undying urge to throw something at the TV. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted January 18, 2009 Share Posted January 18, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lufc Posted January 18, 2009 Share Posted January 18, 2009 I forecast a horrible week ahead for sterling. But then again maybe not, I just keep forgetting the "sound fundamentals". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the-sign-jacker Posted January 18, 2009 Share Posted January 18, 2009 also the FTSE is in a funny position next week. i agree, next week should by all accounts be a benchmark for low quality. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dinker Posted January 18, 2009 Share Posted January 18, 2009 Must get my spread-betting account set up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InternationalRockSuperstar Posted January 18, 2009 Share Posted January 18, 2009 Monday - Rightmove figuresTuesday - CPI/RPI Inflation change and Mervyn King speech Wednesday - Unemployment claims and MPC minutes Friday - preliminary GDP figure and Retail Sales Haven't you forgotten the imminent £200 bn bank bailout Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laura Posted January 18, 2009 Share Posted January 18, 2009 I forecast a horrible week ahead for sterling.But then again maybe not, I just keep forgetting the "sound fundamentals". Indeed.............'a low debt economy like the United Kingdom' - (he was in a dinner jacket when he said that) also the chance of Club Med ( ) going for a winter swim..... via the cliff top Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lufc Posted January 18, 2009 Share Posted January 18, 2009 Indeed.............'a low debt economy like the United Kingdom' - (he was in a dinner jacket when he said that)also the chance of Club Med ( ) going for a winter swim..... via the cliff top Hmmm, so much going on at the moment ..... I take it that you're a little concerned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Posted January 18, 2009 Share Posted January 18, 2009 (edited) Tempted to do a runner myself after doing my tax return. JMJ! Am seriously considering a move East. My cousin in E Europe pays 10% tax (and the authorities are far from strict when it comes to enforcement). Just can't stomach another tax bill like this one. Edited January 18, 2009 by gruffydd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wad Posted January 18, 2009 Share Posted January 18, 2009 Tricky times these. No obvious short term trade even though I am pretty certain that the long term trend is to much lower levels. I agree. Metaphorically I have crawled into a hole and pulled a big stone over the hole until the storm passes over my invetsments My only activity over the next 7 days will be emptying my bank accounts of all cash. I just have a horrible feeling this bailout is not going to go smoothly. I think Parliament may demand to have safeguards in place before the next phase of the bailout and also demand to know exactly where the money has gone that has already been pumped in. Indeed, the Govt may in the end be forced to nationalise everything before the accounting year end if they do not get the plan through ASAP. Surely a possible exposure of £200bn credit insurance is not going to go through with opposition? Vince Cable is on TV as a write and he is certainly asking some pretty pertinent questions. More emergency questions in Parliament perhaps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Posted January 18, 2009 Share Posted January 18, 2009 Doesn't the EU have to approve state-aid? - sounds like that's exactly what the UK government is proposing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renterbob Posted January 18, 2009 Share Posted January 18, 2009 Oh, but whatever shall happen on Thursday? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eightiesgirly Posted January 18, 2009 Share Posted January 18, 2009 Asking banks to disclose all the ' bad stuff'. Oh boy! that would make for a good read. ECB cutting rates and to cut again if neccesary. Interesting stuff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A.steve Posted January 18, 2009 Share Posted January 18, 2009 (edited) Erm... Tuesday... Presidential inauguration. This is cleverly timed to coincide with the day that Brown intends to publish the details of the UK's second bank bailout. http://uk.reuters.com/article/UKNews1/idUK...0090118?sp=true Prime Minister Gordon Brown said details of the package would be announced "in the next day or two." Nice timing. Edited January 18, 2009 by A.steve Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shao Kahn Posted January 18, 2009 Share Posted January 18, 2009 Oh, but whatever shall happen on Thursday? We all get arrested under the "anti-terrorism" laws due to causing "financial disturbance"... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Posted January 18, 2009 Share Posted January 18, 2009 (edited) But how can the banks admit to 'bad stuff' they have no way of calculating? And who could trust them anyway if they did come up with some half-baked estimate. The only way forward is government seizure of the banks, and an independent evaluation of the current position. PS. I would prefer the banks to stop lending to householders completely, and only at a far lower level to businesses. Debt is slavery and all that. But hey, don't think they're going to go with this. Edited January 18, 2009 by gruffydd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LuckyOne Posted January 18, 2009 Share Posted January 18, 2009 But how can the banks admit to liabilities they have no way of calculating? Their liabilities are worth 100%. Their assets are tending towards 0%. Given the 40x leverage, they became insolvent when their assets dropped below 97.5% on average which happened a long time ago ..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LuckyOne Posted January 18, 2009 Share Posted January 18, 2009 But how can the banks admit to liabilities they have no way of calculating? Their liabilities are worth 100%. Their assets are tending towards 0%. Given the 40x leverage, they became insolvent when their assets dropped below 97.5% on average which happened a long time ago ..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Posted January 18, 2009 Share Posted January 18, 2009 (edited) Wholesale nationalisation seems to be their only option. That much is pretty obvious. Seriously. How much longer can this charade continue? And how are the banks still functioning while they're technically insolvent? Huh? And how does the ever-deluded Gordon Clown think that a second bail-out will work - British Banks lend internationally for goodness sake - how on earth will his miserable little bail-out have any impact whatsoever. The guy's COMPLETELY OFF HIS ROCKER! Edited January 18, 2009 by gruffydd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Injin Posted January 18, 2009 Share Posted January 18, 2009 Wholesale nationalisation seems to be their only option. That much is pretty obvious. Seriously. How much longer can this charade continue? And how are the banks still functioning while they're technically insolvent? Huh? "All banks are always insolvent it's just a matter of time before people notice it" - M. Rothbard. I'd be amazed if the whole system isn't nationalised within the month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Posted January 18, 2009 Share Posted January 18, 2009 (edited) Hmmm, Shriti Vadera - Gordon Brown's key economic adviser, who is busy crafting Bail Out 2.0 - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shriti_Vadera http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinanci...I27608320090118 http://uk.reuters.com/article/marketsNewsU...I30148120090118 Edited January 18, 2009 by gruffydd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LuckyOne Posted January 18, 2009 Share Posted January 18, 2009 Hmmm, Shriti Vadera - Gordon Brown's key economic adviser, who is busy crafting Bail Out 2.0 - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shriti_Vaderahttp://uk.reuters.com/article/marketsNewsU...I30148120090118 If you drop the "r" from her forename, you get an apt description of the situation that we are in ... UBS have blown themselves up. Seems to be a good training ground to try to blow up an entire country next ...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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