LittleK0i

If banks are right, they pocket the profit. If banks are wrong, they receive bailout at your expense. There is no risk for banks and especially for bank execs making these decisions.

Emigrate.

If you really want to know, there are few points about Russia which should be taken into account: All mortgages are long-term and rates are fixed. There are no "trackers" or "remortgages". Some mortgages are subsidized by government. You may get a mortgage a few percent below official interest rate. Investment options are very limited. When something bad happens, people hoard property. National currency consistently devalue, so even "high" rates are not that high after a few years. Property prices in Moscow in local currency: https://www.irn.ru/gd/s-2000-goda/#begin Property prices in Moscow in USD: https://www.irn.ru/gd/s-2000-goda-v-dollarah/#begin --- In general, good properties are holding value pretty well. But they've recently built A LOT of very cheap crappy tiny properties located in outskirts with almost no infrastructure. it was a pure cash grab. These properties are going down fast and dragging the whole market. --- Property prices outside of Moscow and St Petersburg are meaningless, since all high paid jobs are concentrated in these two cities only.

It's 100% government fault with insane decade-long deliberate underinvestment in local energy production. Energy market experts do not expect anything from individuals. They are taking record profits and keep doing so as long as government keeps supply low and must buy energy overseas. Individuals have no choice really. Super-expensive variable or super-expensive fix, who cares? The majority of energy price increases are going to be passed to them via stagflation.

It is not exactly true, unfortunately. Spain offers 24% flat income tax rate for full-time employees via "Beckham law". Now it includes digital nomads working remotely for full-time. Spain currently DOES NOT offer any tax breaks for true self-employed digital nomads. "Autonomo" pays full income tax and also social security on top, which can be as high as 590EUR per month (!). There are a lot of talks Spain changing rules for self-employed digital nomads, but it did not happen yet.

There are only a few countries offering truly viable and meaningful digital nomad visas. The amount of options is limited. But.. yeah, it seems like the smartest thing to do for the "laptop class" at least in the next 5-10 years. Things might change, but you'll lose so much money in tax by that time. Purely from financial perspective, there is no point in staying for people who can work remotely.

Yes, a little bit. He's a good guy. But his advice is mostly relevant for 7-8 figure entrepreneurs and crypto bros. I am quite close, but not there yet, so the selection criteria is different. On the bright side, I would easily qualify for "talent / work / remote work / digital nomad" visa pretty much anywhere in the world. And I had "talent" visa in the UK as well, and I did it on my own with no external help. I think I'll manage this time as well.

My current options are: Spain / Portugal as Digital Nomad; Malaysia / Thailand; UAE / Singapore; Georgia (country); Colombia (Medellin); My skills are in demand, so employment / freelancing / visas are not a big issue.

I am planning to leave in the next ~6-12 months. Currently selling stuff on eBay, not taking any new jobs or contracts, etc. Even if house prices crash, it won't fix insanely high taxes and my personal political incompatibility with upcoming Labour government. Staying is technically possible, but pointless. Things are unlikely to improve in the next ~5 years.

Despite what you read in western media, UK is much closer to "collapse" than Russia. No shortage of energy, heating, water, food, base commodities. Police, healthcare, education, other gov services are functioning. Relatively high support of the current government (at least 60% vs. less than 20% in the UK). Russia is #2 world arms exporter. It will not run out of shells. No dependency on western financial system in any shape of form. Russia has tons of other problems, but all fundamentals are covered. UK had fantastic fundamentals for many decades, but recently decided to give it all away.

In my opinion, the fundamental reasons for points mentioned in the report are: 1. Financial system based on debt expansion. 2. Political system based on idea of "1 person = 1 vote". 3. Docile population with no interest to make hard decision and do the hard work required to seriously improve their lives. Both financial and political systems worked very well in the past, but now it must be replaced with something better. But there is so much vested interested to keep old things running for "a little longer". I do not expect it to happen in our lifetime. Maybe in Asia, India, but no in the UK.

Not necessarily. I'll explain why. People in many countries are generally used to hardship, and a lot of problems there can be truly fixed with money. People in the UK did not know true hardship in many decades. The current situation is relatively mild compared to how bad it can get. So.. when shit truly hits the fan, eastern EU and Asia will "fall from the 2nd floor", while UK might "fall from the 10th floor" People here might experience such a huge drop in living standards, it will make them nuts. And the country has no sufficient police and no backbone to keep the situation under control. Army is very small as well. If mass civil unrest erupts, there will be nothing to stop it here.

Yes, I'll most likely emigrate in the next 6 to 18 months. I work remotely since Covid anyway, not attached to specific location. Southern EU or Asia, strictly on digital nomad visa or similar conditions. Many countries offer very generous income tax discounts for digital nomads. For example, it is going to be 15% income tax in Spain flat (!) on amounts up to 600.000 EUR per year, for 5 years. Rent, food, transport, bills are significantly cheaper. Healthcare is operational. There is no point in staying in London from financial perspective. I'll just pay crazy high taxes, very high rent and get less and less for it in return. And it's not even Labour government yet! Most likely, they'll see me as "rich" and tax me even more. --- On the other hand, you'll probably get cheaper houses in the UK when people like me leave. If you still fancy. But it is so sad. I would really love to stay, have a family, ... but we live in a different world now.

I moved to the UK about 7 years ago. I had a great time, but now I consider leaving. With the upcoming hikes to CGT and dividends, deteriorating public services and increasing hostility to productive high earning people, UK becomes less and less viable. I expect Labour to come into power soon, which will make things even worse for people like me. People with “broadest shoulders” also have the most options.

Digital currency will make it possible to control the economy manually to the extent which was never seen before. Inflation and deflation will no longer matter. CB will be able to create, redistribute, delete and add custom conditions to "money" in your wallet at any moment. What will matter is central planning and current political situation. For example: Are you being a "good" citizen? But does your business struggle and makes no money? No problem, CB will support you. Are you making money on something which is considered "bad"? For example, on fossil fuels? Bad boy! CB will take "money" from you and redistribute it to some "green energy" loss-making business. For the greater good, of course. In order to implement this, CB's will have to kill the current system first and offer digital currency as an alternative. And it will be easy to kill the current system. When they stop the artificial life support, it will crumble immediately.

In my opinion, what SHOULD happen: Stamp Duty for houses and stocks - completely removed; Council Tax - completely removed; Property Tax, similar to other countries, % of value paid annually - introduced; Gradually increase Property Tax over 3-5 years to let the market to adapt; Higher property tax for people having 2+ houses in the UK; Substantially higher property tax for foreign investors and brits living abroad, but owning a house in the UK; Reduce CGT for scenarios when people are downsizing; These measures will help to rebalance the market, increase the amount of transactions. For majority of people owning one home the amount of tax they pay annually would be close to Council Tax they pay today. For "investors" and "serial landlords", it will be less attractive business. Social mobility will increase, it will be less punishing to move to another city, to upsize or downsize when you need it. --- What WILL happen? Taxes no longer matter. Government will print (or "borrow") fake money out of the thin air and hand it to people. UBI will be permanent. Lots of populist and socialist measures will be introduced. It will help to win elections, but it won't help to fix the real problems. Eventually, it will cause stagflation, massive drop in standard of living, 2 tier society, social unrest. Eventually fiat currencies will collapse, all together. Central bank digital currencies will be introduced instead. --- This is true to certain extent. Central banks are doing everything to reduce volatility and bail-out everyone and everything. But risk is still there. It becomes less obvious and changes forms, but it does not go away. At some point risk will find an exit valve and materialise in something outside of central bank control. Remember, they can only print fiat currency. They cannot print food, oil, energy, commodities, babies. They cannot print labour, they cannot print safety. They cannot print meaning. Once the trust in the system cracks a bit, the risk will come back.

Making CGT equal to Income Tax would be a total disaster. I'll explain why, it's easy to understand. Activities related to Income Tax usually involve a limited risk. If your employer goes belly up, you'll keep all the money earned before this event. But activities related to Capital Gains Tax involve a lot of risk. You may lose 100% of invested money, or even more in some cases. Also, CGT is a tax paid by successful entrepreneurs, when they sell their business. Business involve a lot of risk. You may lose everything. If government makes CGT equal to Income Tax, the most reasonable thing to do for successful people is to leave the UK ASAP. Me included. --- Also, capital gains is pretty much the only way how HPC crowd can get ahead and afford a house. If you invest in something which outperforms housing, especially during the next major change in society. Also, it's an additional tax on inflation. Lower CGT will help you to preserve more purchasing power during the inevitable fiat currencies meltdown in near future. HPC crowd advocating for raising of CGT is a total madness to me. By doing so you guys are killing one of the few real chances you have left in life.

It may end with a basic crash in value of currency. It happened many times in the past, and it will happen again. In this scenario houses may go up even further in nominal terms, but down in real terms.

More and more people will support UBI in exchange of complete loss of freedom when the time comes. I don't see any good "way out" of this. Productive people should probably start thinking about leaving the current system and creating an alternative. If productive people stay, they'll be nothing but donors for everybody else. Society will always have more "spenders" than "savers", and the safety net went too far lately. I don't think government will ever be able to retract it.

Ok, this one is simple: Give money & documents to undocumented migrants; They vote for dems during next election; Dems stay in power and increase taxes on the chunk of native population which is still productive;

It is possible, especially if rates will go deeply into negative territory. However, nothing is "free". It will mean complete loss of freedom and total dependency on the state.

The most likely scenario for 100% digital taxes is introduction of central bank digital currencies. It will happen in the next few years. If they can see every single transaction in the system and know exactly how much currency goes where, it will be very easy to tax. Initially it will even look like a good thing. Tax system will be greatly siplified, tax rates will be lower. Most of tax advisors will lose their jobs. Efficiency will be improved immensely. The downsides are: if government dislikes you (social credit?), you won't be able to buy bread; potentially deeply negative interest rates, you will be forced to spend;

Rent prices in zones 1-3 seems to be going down very fast. I've managed to negotiate 25% discount + breaking clause easily. Lots of people are moving out. Lots of messages from people leaving earlier and looking for other tenants to fill the void. I guess, BTL is no longer profitable for areas around City and Canary Wharf.