Halifax And Nationwide House Fall Graph

[Darkman]

Not sure if this is a repost. I don't really care either. Just enjoy the fall.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7647251.stm

[RufflesTheGuineaPig]

How tall will they let ig get before they move the %age lines closer together?

[Harry Sacks]

Gnarly dude!

[Steppenpig]

It's funny. In normal times, the two data tend not to mirror each other so closely. I guess when you reach terminal velocity in free fall, other factors become less significant.

[renterbob]

Not sure if this is a repost. I don't really care either. Just enjoy the fall.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7647251.stm

Oh no, look, it's levelling off

[VeryMeanReversion]

I like the bit where the fall % is now larger than the rise% so the bust shouldn't last as long as the boom. As mentioned here many times, a X% fall is bigger than a X% rise so the graph doesn't really show the magnitue of the falls.

e.g. A 15% fall reverses a 17.6% rise.

Maybe the graph should be converted to a form where it is % of peak price for both rises and falls. Then we can integrate areas under the curves and watch the UK equity evaporate.

I think I'll stop now before my lack of maths skills gets embarrassing.

VMR.

[swissy_fit]

I like the bit where the fall % is now larger than the rise% so the bust shouldn't last as long as the boom. As mentioned here many times, a X% fall is bigger than a X% rise so the graph doesn't really show the magnitue of the falls.

e.g. A 15% fall reverses a 17.6% rise.

Maybe the graph should be converted to a form where it is % of peak price for both rises and falls. Then we can integrate areas under the curves and watch the UK equity evaporate.

I think I'll stop now before my lack of maths skills gets embarrassing.

VMR.

Anyone clever enough to put all the indices (land Registry, Hometrack, Halifax, Rightmove, Nationwide etc on one graph ??

I was thinking it would shut up the twit from Assetz (I think) who was questioning the Haliwide stats because he didn't like them by showing the time lags perfectly.......

[Nicholas Cage]

Does anyone have the overlaid peak from the last crash, they were following very closely.

I don't have access to mine at the moment,

[The Knimbies who say No]

Here's agraph I made using both RPI and RPIX data.

The RPI data is not quite the correct stuff to use, as it contains a component for house prices. The RPIX excludes that, so is a better measure of the inflation for everything else, and thus affordability of housing.

So, as you might expect, the last boom peak is raised a little to reflect that, but we are still above the peak of the last boom in RPIX adjusted term.

Note the monthly RPIX data in its current form only goes to 1987.

The average HP figures are taken from Halifax.

Note how the current peak has increased in real terms due to high inflation in the past year-If you bought your house a year ago, in addition to the nominal fall, there is also the fact that inflation has been high-a combined fall of 22% in real terms so far.

[Nationalist]

The lines fell through zero mid-March this year, 6 months ago, and already prices are back to the beginning of 2006.

The Japanese had a symetric Mt Fuji fall - we're getting the Beachy Head version.

[benn]

the graph would make one hell of a ride on line-rider

http://linerider.com/play-line-rider-online

[LivingWithTheInlaws]

If monthly falls continue at their current rate (1.5 - 2% ish), the BBC graph will level out once we have a year's worth of falls in the pipeline. In otherwords, if YOY falls stabilise at 15% per year, the graph will be flat. HP will be crashing but the graph will no longer look impressive and some muppets may even think house prices have stabilised.

Edited to add 'BBC'

Edited October 2, 2008 by LivingWithTheInlaws

[spline]

Just a quick addition to today’s graphfest – this is the HPI roundup for September. It’s plotted on a time line corrected with the usual backshifts, YoY 6 months, and QoQ 1.5 months.

Surprisingly, all the indices broadly agree that HPI (1.5 month ago) was sitting around the -20% level annualised (although FT-HPI is slightly behind) and in rough agreement with Haliwide’s current monthly annualized rate of about 25%.

Edited October 2, 2008 by spline

[fellow]

.

Edited October 6, 2010 by fellow

[neil324]

My god did it even happen

[Oh Dear]

My god did it even happen

I try to think where house prices would have been had it not. No change in house prices for the last 6 years in my neck of the woods.

[neil324]

I try to think where house prices would have been had it not. No change in house prices for the last 6 years in my neck of the woods.

Prices back to 2004 then, not round my way, you might get lucky someone needs to sell, or a flat. But it's not the norm.

[Dead Spider]

I try to think where house prices would have been had it not. No change in house prices for the last 6 years in my neck of the woods.

Do you have the first 3 letters of the post code handy ?

Just to check , if I remember when sober .

Apologies if not .

[Fairies Wear Boots]

Do you have the first 3 letters of the post code handy ?

Just to check , if I remember when sober .

Apologies if not .

Where can you do a post code search?

[neil324]

Where can you do a post code search?

post office

[Oh Dear]

post office

I live in west Wiltshire, sorry if I don't want to be more specific.

Also so drunk I am responding to the wrong post

Edited October 6, 2010 by Oh Dear

[LiveAndLetBuy]

Not sure if this is a repost. I don't really care either. Just enjoy the fall.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7647251.stm

Hmmmmm.........two thousand and eeeeiiiight.....

[Timm]

The latest, most up to date version of that graph (for the next six hours or so):

[Pauly_Boy]

The latest, most up to date version of that graph (for the next six hours or so):

What figure do we need from HBOS for it to go negative YoY?

Just worked it out, if it's -1.6%, then YoY goes negative!!

Edited October 7, 2010 by Pauly_Boy