Recommended Posts

On 8/7/2017 at 11:54 AM, BelfastVI said:

 

I don't believe I have ever sold a house to a person on benefits. 

I'll call balls to that. 

You've never sold a house to someone in receipt of child benefit? Tax credits? 

Every household you've sold to is either childless or one member of that household earns 60k+?

See its about clarity. I have no idea what the CML dataset looks like. Nor do you. 

 

In the absence of clarity. I'll take the NIRPPI. 4.5 times household income is credit bubble territory. It's not a healthy figure going forward. There's zero room for pension provision there. Christ to buy the state pension at 69 you'd need a 250k pot. How do you expect a household buying at 32 on a 30 year mortgage at 4.5 times earnings to save a pension? It's not possible for most. Something will give. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, yadayada said:

I suspect he means someone on the dole.

Probably. I'd say the majority of his sales come from people receiving some form of in work benefit. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
56 minutes ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

+1. Expansion of credit has been driving prices for decades now. MMR removed self certification but it hardly matters when you can easily borrow 6 times joint income easily enough. 

That's 6 times income. Not earnings. 

Six times joint is just unbelievable lunacy.  Six times single income would be crazy enough. 

Everything in the economy is now predicated upon perpetual cheap and easy credit and the resulting ever-higher asset prices to 'underpin' the debt.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

I'll call balls to that. 

You've never sold a house to someone in receipt of child benefit? Tax credits? 

Every household you've sold to is either childless or one member of that household earns 60k+?

See its about clarity. I have no idea what the CML dataset looks like. Nor do you. 

 

In the absence of clarity. I'll take the NIRPPI. 4.5 times household income is credit bubble territory. It's not a healthy figure going forward. There's zero room for pension provision there. Christ to buy the state pension at 69 you'd need a 250k pot. How do you expect a household buying at 32 on a 30 year mortgage at 4.5 times earnings to save a pension? It's not possible for most. Something will give. 

I meant unemployed and on benefits but take your point.

Don't know what you have against the CML Reports.

What I want is people to enter retirement owning their house outright. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

+1. Expansion of credit has been driving prices for decades now. MMR removed self certification but it hardly matters when you can easily borrow 6 times joint income easily enough. 

That's 6 times income. Not earnings. 

Can you show me where you can easily borrow 6x joint income.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, BelfastVI said:

I meant unemployed and on benefits but take your point.

Don't know what you have against the CML Reports.

What I want is people to enter retirement owning their house outright. 

Can you point me in the direction of the CML methodology and data set?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, BelfastVI said:

Can you show me where you can easily borrow 6x joint income.

Play around with some of the online calculators. Halifax is a good start. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thorn   
11 hours ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

I'll call balls to that. 

You've never sold a house to someone in receipt of child benefit? Tax credits? 

Every household you've sold to is either childless or one member of that household earns 60k+?

See its about clarity. I have no idea what the CML dataset looks like. Nor do you. 

 

In the absence of clarity. I'll take the NIRPPI. 4.5 times household income is credit bubble territory. It's not a healthy figure going forward. There's zero room for pension provision there. Christ to buy the state pension at 69 you'd need a 250k pot. How do you expect a household buying at 32 on a 30 year mortgage at 4.5 times earnings to save a pension? It's not possible for most. Something will give. 

Bubble is right. And I agree with 2buyornot2buy- something's gotta give. We are neither London nor Dublin so let's be honest- neither's insiders and their schemes will ever really apply. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, The_Equalizer said:

As a little aside, while going through old NI HPC threads I found this link to a BBC article from 2007:

'Hysterical' buyers driving market - BBC

It makes for an interesting read. I wonder what happened to friends Nick and Mark and their £250K 2-bed new build in Carryduff?

Very interesting, this stood out for me:

Quote

"Interest rates, although they've risen in the past six months, are still relatively low.

But the Bank of England will almost certainly put them up again in the near future, just to keep a hold on inflation.

That's something to bear in mind when your finances are already stretched to breaking point to meet repayments on a mortgage calculated on five times your salary (at least)."

And the conclusion:

Quote

"Will the bubble burst? Not for the foreseeable future.

The economists, agents and lenders predict a significant slow-down in the market, with prices rising at a more modest 15% over 2007."

Plus ça change. The UU Index for the same period has the same faux-prudent tone:

Quote

On balance house prices are unlikely to come down much in absolute terms. Unless of course there is a sudden downturn in the economy or in the very unlikely event that house prices continue to increase at the currently unsustainable rate for the whole of 2007. In either case a significant correction in house prices is almost inevitable. However, even given the more likely scenario - that the rate of house price increase will fall substantially, but that house prices will only fall slightly in absolute terms – this presents the new Government Minister responsible for housing and the policy makers in the four Government departments with a significant role in addressing the issue of affordability.

At no point suggesting that the junk debt being dished out by their advertisers could in fact be the source of the downturn.

Edited by darkmarket

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thorn   
On 8/11/2017 at 9:40 PM, JoeDavola said:

As if 15% a year represents anything near a 'modest' rise!

Exactly. No analysis just a journalistic descriptive waste of print. It was such a load of BS. 

And as for this bit "Investor activity is also exceptionally strong, particularly from the Republic"- duh, oh really? 

Like we didn't know at the time. Obscene. 

But sure even as far back as 1998 or so adverts regularly were on the Radio down South saying things like "come and buy a portfolio of 5 houses in the North for less than 100k for all 5". 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Thorn said:

Exactly. No analysis just a journalistic descriptive waste of print. It was such a load of BS. 

And as for this bit "Investor activity is also exceptionally strong, particularly from the Republic"- duh, oh really? 

Like we didn't know at the time. Obscene. 

But sure even as far back as 1998 or so adverts regularly were on the Radio down South saying things like "come and buy a portfolio of 5 houses in the North for less than 100k for all 5". 

It will be interesting to see what happens - I think prices in Belfast are too high again, but as long as people can just about pay the mortgage they will buy it seems.

I particularly dislike the newbuild developments that young married couples seem to be pouring into en mass. Don't think the house build quality is all that impressive.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.