Buy or ( wait ) Rent ?

[yadayada]

I suspect he means someone on the dole.

[2buyornot2buy]

34 minutes ago, yadayada said:

I suspect he means someone on the dole.

Probably. I'd say the majority of his sales come from people receiving some form of in work benefit. 

[Sour Mash]

56 minutes ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

+1. Expansion of credit has been driving prices for decades now. MMR removed self certification but it hardly matters when you can easily borrow 6 times joint income easily enough. 

That's 6 times income. Not earnings. 

Six times joint is just unbelievable lunacy.  Six times single income would be crazy enough. 

Everything in the economy is now predicated upon perpetual cheap and easy credit and the resulting ever-higher asset prices to 'underpin' the debt.

[yadayada]

It's a bubble waiting to be underpinned.

[2buyornot2buy]

2 minutes ago, yadayada said:

It's a bubble waiting to be underpinned.

I think they've used all the tools they have left...

 

100% HTB anyone? 

 

[BelfastVI]

1 hour ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

I'll call balls to that. 

You've never sold a house to someone in receipt of child benefit? Tax credits? 

Every household you've sold to is either childless or one member of that household earns 60k+?

See its about clarity. I have no idea what the CML dataset looks like. Nor do you. 

 

In the absence of clarity. I'll take the NIRPPI. 4.5 times household income is credit bubble territory. It's not a healthy figure going forward. There's zero room for pension provision there. Christ to buy the state pension at 69 you'd need a 250k pot. How do you expect a household buying at 32 on a 30 year mortgage at 4.5 times earnings to save a pension? It's not possible for most. Something will give. 

I meant unemployed and on benefits but take your point.

Don't know what you have against the CML Reports.

What I want is people to enter retirement owning their house outright. 

[BelfastVI]

1 hour ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

+1. Expansion of credit has been driving prices for decades now. MMR removed self certification but it hardly matters when you can easily borrow 6 times joint income easily enough. 

That's 6 times income. Not earnings. 

Can you show me where you can easily borrow 6x joint income.

[2buyornot2buy]

37 minutes ago, BelfastVI said:

I meant unemployed and on benefits but take your point.

Don't know what you have against the CML Reports.

What I want is people to enter retirement owning their house outright. 

Can you point me in the direction of the CML methodology and data set?

[2buyornot2buy]

34 minutes ago, BelfastVI said:

Can you show me where you can easily borrow 6x joint income.

Play around with some of the online calculators. Halifax is a good start. 

[Thorn]

11 hours ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

I'll call balls to that. 

You've never sold a house to someone in receipt of child benefit? Tax credits? 

Every household you've sold to is either childless or one member of that household earns 60k+?

See its about clarity. I have no idea what the CML dataset looks like. Nor do you. 

 

In the absence of clarity. I'll take the NIRPPI. 4.5 times household income is credit bubble territory. It's not a healthy figure going forward. There's zero room for pension provision there. Christ to buy the state pension at 69 you'd need a 250k pot. How do you expect a household buying at 32 on a 30 year mortgage at 4.5 times earnings to save a pension? It's not possible for most. Something will give. 

Bubble is right. And I agree with 2buyornot2buy- something's gotta give. We are neither London nor Dublin so let's be honest- neither's insiders and their schemes will ever really apply. 

[The_Equalizer]

As a little aside, while going through old NI HPC threads I found this link to a BBC article from 2007:

'Hysterical' buyers driving market - BBC

It makes for an interesting read. I wonder what happened to friends Nick and Mark and their £250K 2-bed new build in Carryduff?

[darkmarket]

2 hours ago, The_Equalizer said:

As a little aside, while going through old NI HPC threads I found this link to a BBC article from 2007:

'Hysterical' buyers driving market - BBC

It makes for an interesting read. I wonder what happened to friends Nick and Mark and their £250K 2-bed new build in Carryduff?

Very interesting, this stood out for me:

Quote

"Interest rates, although they've risen in the past six months, are still relatively low.

But the Bank of England will almost certainly put them up again in the near future, just to keep a hold on inflation.

That's something to bear in mind when your finances are already stretched to breaking point to meet repayments on a mortgage calculated on five times your salary (at least)."

And the conclusion:

Quote

"Will the bubble burst? Not for the foreseeable future.

The economists, agents and lenders predict a significant slow-down in the market, with prices rising at a more modest 15% over 2007."

Plus ça change. The UU Index for the same period has the same faux-prudent tone:

Quote

On balance house prices are unlikely to come down much in absolute terms. Unless of course there is a sudden downturn in the economy or in the very unlikely event that house prices continue to increase at the currently unsustainable rate for the whole of 2007. In either case a significant correction in house prices is almost inevitable. However, even given the more likely scenario - that the rate of house price increase will fall substantially, but that house prices will only fall slightly in absolute terms – this presents the new Government Minister responsible for housing and the policy makers in the four Government departments with a significant role in addressing the issue of affordability.

At no point suggesting that the junk debt being dished out by their advertisers could in fact be the source of the downturn.

Edited August 10, 2017 by darkmarket

[JoeDavola]

As if 15% a year represents anything near a 'modest' rise!

[Thorn]

On 8/11/2017 at 9:40 PM, JoeDavola said:

As if 15% a year represents anything near a 'modest' rise!

Exactly. No analysis just a journalistic descriptive waste of print. It was such a load of BS. 

And as for this bit "Investor activity is also exceptionally strong, particularly from the Republic"- duh, oh really? 

Like we didn't know at the time. Obscene. 

But sure even as far back as 1998 or so adverts regularly were on the Radio down South saying things like "come and buy a portfolio of 5 houses in the North for less than 100k for all 5". 

[JoeDavola]

3 hours ago, Thorn said:

Exactly. No analysis just a journalistic descriptive waste of print. It was such a load of BS. 

And as for this bit "Investor activity is also exceptionally strong, particularly from the Republic"- duh, oh really? 

Like we didn't know at the time. Obscene. 

But sure even as far back as 1998 or so adverts regularly were on the Radio down South saying things like "come and buy a portfolio of 5 houses in the North for less than 100k for all 5". 

It will be interesting to see what happens - I think prices in Belfast are too high again, but as long as people can just about pay the mortgage they will buy it seems.

I particularly dislike the newbuild developments that young married couples seem to be pouring into en mass. Don't think the house build quality is all that impressive.

[Thorn]

On 8/13/2017 at 1:12 AM, JoeDavola said:

It will be interesting to see what happens - I think prices in Belfast are too high again, but as long as people can just about pay the mortgage they will buy it seems.

I particularly dislike the newbuild developments that young married couples seem to be pouring into en mass. Don't think the house build quality is all that impressive.

Seems to me that there are lots of reductions out there and most houses for sale are occupied by pensioners. Waiting for a younger sucker to take out a mortgage and work for years to come to give them their unearned gift. Presuming most own outright and not much pressure yet to drop their prices.

I think it will be interesting over the coming months because I don't know where demand will come from other than other boomers.

...what do you think JoeDavola?

[JoeDavola]

18 hours ago, Thorn said:

Seems to me that there are lots of reductions out there and most houses for sale are occupied by pensioners. Waiting for a younger sucker to take out a mortgage and work for years to come to give them their unearned gift. Presuming most own outright and not much pressure yet to drop their prices.

I think it will be interesting over the coming months because I don't know where demand will come from other than other boomers.

...what do you think JoeDavola?

Who knows....I think many people seem to be getting help from the bank of Mum & Dad and are stretching themselves with big long mortgages.

I think you would be a sucker to take out one of these massive mortgages considering that you also have to pay all the costs to keep the damn house standing and in good condition over the 30 years that you're paying the mortgage off. But at the end of the day if people can make their mortgage payments that's all they think of.

I think sellers are happy just to leave overpriced stuff on the market for a long time - heard of a 1.5 bedroom flat on sale for £180K that has been on sale for a year and that apparently the sellers 'might drop to £170K' - awful generous of them like

Do you know of any actual reductions happening, Thorn? If so on what sorts of houses/areas?

[Thorn]

2 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

Who knows....I think many people seem to be getting help from the bank of Mum & Dad and are stretching themselves with big long mortgages.

I think you would be a sucker to take out one of these massive mortgages considering that you also have to pay all the costs to keep the damn house standing and in good condition over the 30 years that you're paying the mortgage off. But at the end of the day if people can make their mortgage payments that's all they think of.

I think sellers are happy just to leave overpriced stuff on the market for a long time - heard of a 1.5 bedroom flat on sale for £180K that has been on sale for a year and that apparently the sellers 'might drop to £170K' - awful generous of them like

Do you know of any actual reductions happening, Thorn? If so on what sorts of houses/areas?

I check Bangor on Zoopla fairly regularly and I go to Sort By... Most Reduced. Its been pretty steady this last year showing a whole lot of houses just sitting there with either no reductions, in some cases for well over a year and not shifting or reducing, but there seem to be a lot of reductions out there in the 5-10% bracket.

If you expand the search area you seem to get the same as far as Newtownabbey, Newtownards similar too. Lots of stuff seems to be either just sitting there, or Sold (with SSTC in tiny letters you can hardly read) signs going up then quietly taken down.

My instinct is there's not a lot of movement out there.

[BelfastVI]

On 01/09/2017 at 8:39 PM, Thorn said:

I check Bangor on Zoopla fairly regularly and I go to Sort By... Most Reduced. Its been pretty steady this last year showing a whole lot of houses just sitting there with either no reductions, in some cases for well over a year and not shifting or reducing, but there seem to be a lot of reductions out there in the 5-10% bracket.

If you expand the search area you seem to get the same as far as Newtownabbey, Newtownards similar too. Lots of stuff seems to be either just sitting there, or Sold (with SSTC in tiny letters you can hardly read) signs going up then quietly taken down.

My instinct is there's not a lot of movement out there.

If so it must only have happened in the last quarter as the most recent NIRPPI Report aint showing it.

[Thorn]

3 hours ago, BelfastVI said:

If so it must only have happened in the last quarter as the most recent NIRPPI Report aint showing it.

No these have been reductions in asking prices. Go on yourself and have a look. 

[BelfastVI]

14 hours ago, Thorn said:

No these have been reductions in asking prices. Go on yourself and have a look. 

Haven't used Zoopa before so may not be looking at same thing as you. When I search Banger under Market activity, either over 3mths, 12 mths or indeed last 5 years it shows an increase in prices.

I don't see a specific option or tab for asking prices so perhaps I am missing something. I would be interested in this.

[Thorn]

12 hours ago, BelfastVI said:

Haven't used Zoopa before so may not be looking at same thing as you. When I search Banger under Market activity, either over 3mths, 12 mths or indeed last 5 years it shows an increase in prices.

I don't see a specific option or tab for asking prices so perhaps I am missing something. I would be interested in this.

Zoopla- search- filter by- Most Reduced. Choose your area and distance around the area, and you're off. 

Its been very useful over the last year as a way of seeing past the PR and patter from Estate Agents.

[ravedave]

Hi,

What is happening in the market currently?  Like the OP I'm considering dipping my toes back into the property market.  Looking a city centre & south Belfast.  Is there much activity at the viewings and competition for the properties?

I'm currently renting and although I think their might be some type of 'adjustment' in property prices dues to Brexit I'm of the opinion that it won't be sufficient to be worthwhile holding back.

Just wondering if there are any reasonable apartment complexes in Belfast worth considering - I'm still undecided as to whether to look into houses or apartments.  From a lifestyle point of view, I think apartments suite me better, but anything decent is the price of a good house!

Just looked on PropertyPal at the semis on Stranmillis Rd on at £475k.  It's an awful lot of money to be perched on the side of a steep embankment with no garden on one side and a very busy road on the other.  Plus nowhere for the kids to kick a ball or play.  Way out of my price range anyhow, but fools and their money are soon parted.

[JoeDavola]

12 hours ago, ravedave said:

Just wondering if there are any reasonable apartment complexes in Belfast worth considering - I'm still undecided as to whether to look into houses or apartments.  From a lifestyle point of view, I think apartments suite me better, but anything decent is the price of a good house!

Plus, you have to be careful with apartment management companies. I rent a wonderful apartment, my rent hasn't gone up in 7 years, but I know that there's been issues with the management company because of some of the owners not paying their maintenance fees.

My ideal living arrangement would be a spacious apartment, we're talking 1500 square feet plus, but they just don't build them in Belfast, and the few that do exist tend to be more expensive than the equivalent house.

[Thorn]

I didn't expect to see this-

Bangor Spectator free paper- the Extra- has an article today about 2/3 through reporting that despite more transactions, houses are selling for 10% less in North Down from Q1 to Q2 2017.

Not the usual HPI ramping sort of stuff the NIrish papers usually put out...