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1 hour ago, darkmarket said:

I'm not clear where this £25k average salary comes from.

According to NISRA, the median salary for an employee in NI is £393 / wk or £20,436pa. The employment rate is 70%.

My Original post just said a couple on £25k each to use as an example, i didn't say average salary for NI was £25k.  

For demonstration purposes in the later example I said average salary (as in the average of the couple) just for continuity.

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3 minutes ago, nigooner said:

My Original post just said a couple on £25k each to use as an example, i didn't say average salary for NI was £25k.  

Just found it interesting that was the figure that came to mind, anecdotally it comes up quite often. It gives the impression of a general perception that NI salaries are a bit higher than in reality, employment at 70% surprised me too. It gives a very different view of the average household even before you consider what meets the current definition of employment.

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6 hours ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

I don't think a 950 sq foot new build with a 20sq meter "garden" should be an average house. It's what builders have made as the average house. 

It's a bit like what we we've saw with food for the past 30 years. Look at chocolate bars. Size has gradually reduced and ingredients replaced with lower quality equivalents.I see the same thing happening with house. Much smaller footprint. But oh look, these are so energy efficient and have 8 toilets. 

 

 

The private house builders are building houses that are much larger than the council houses of the 50's that we are replacing. 

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5 hours ago, darkmarket said:

I'm not clear where this £25k average salary comes from.

According to NISRA, the median salary for an employee in NI is £393 / wk or £20,436pa. The employment rate is 70%.

Annual earnings:

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3 hours ago, yadayada said:

Don't forget those on below average incomes will in many cases never be in the housing market. Therefore the average house ought to be somewhat cheaper than those bought by the average owner occupier.

it doesn't appear to work that way. in general it is people on higher income (average or above) that buy houses. I guess its the same for cars but to a much lesser extent. Again the house price to income ratio is only relevant to a first time buyer. The bank dont look at the price to earnings but the loan to earnings ratio, amongst many other things.

The average FTber house price is much lower than the average house price. CML give a good breakdown of this. I cant remember the figure but it is around £110k to £120k.

 

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4 hours ago, yadayada said:

Don't forget those on below average incomes will in many cases never be in the housing market. Therefore the average house ought to be somewhat cheaper than those bought by the average owner occupier.

Need to get my head around this.

if we step back and see that only c62%of households in NI are in private ownership (ownership has been falling which worries me). whilst there are many examples to the contry we can assume that this 62%, in general is taken from the 60% of higher earners. therefore, if this is true the average income of house owners would be above the average income of the general population. not what we want in society but it is perhaps fairly safe to assume.there are plenty of examples of people on higher income who choose to rent and again plenty of examples of people who were given mortgages who income is now not (and perhaps never was) in the higher 60% of the population.

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21 minutes ago, BelfastVI said:

Annual earnings:

Then you need to consider that a bit less than a third of those employed, which has dropped below 70% now, are part-time. So your median household income is still looking a lot closer to £35k, you have far too many people not in full-time employment for that not to reflect in a significant percentage of households.

This leaves you forced to say the private housing market is only there to serve above average earners, and depend on the floor under the market set by housing benefit.

27 minutes ago, BelfastVI said:

The average FTber house price is much lower than the average house price. CML give a good breakdown of this. I cant remember the figure but it is around £110k to £120k.

The average is only £124k, that's hardly much lower. Which would make sense given how much the market depends on that false floor of housing benefit, and how little equity's available to leverage for non-FTBs due to the state of the market.

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2 hours ago, BelfastVI said:

Annual earnings:

That's the median. What's the average?

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3 hours ago, darkmarket said:

This leaves you forced to say the private housing market is only there to serve above average earners, and depend on the floor under the market set by housing benefit.

The average is only £124k, that's hardly much lower. Which would make sense given how much the market depends on that false floor of housing benefit, and how little equity's available to leverage for non-FTBs due to the state of the market.

The private house market acts in a similar way to the resale market in providing houses to the open market i.e whoever the purchasers are.

I think it is safe to assume that those on the lowest quartet of income struggle to gain home ownership. Housing Benefit will not contribute to mortgage repayment and therefore not a factor for purchasers of houses. 

I have now looked at the recent CML report for NI The average borrowing of FTBers is £95k against an average FTBer household income of £31k. The resale market seen an average loan of £115k against an average household income of £46k

CML May 2017 Report

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1 hour ago, yadayada said:

That's the median. What's the average?

from the document

"The mean and the median measure different things and either can be appropriate depending on what the user is trying to measure. The mean measures the average amount earned by individuals, but in a skew distribution such as earnings this measure is susceptible to small numbers of very high earners. The median measures the amount earned by the average individual, i.e. the level of earnings above which half the population fall. Please note that changes in median values for sub sectors of the population are not necessarily additive at the population level."

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9 minutes ago, BelfastVI said:

Housing Benefit will not contribute to mortgage repayment

Millions of BTL mortgages are functioning thanks to housing benefit, I don't see what you mean by this.

11 minutes ago, BelfastVI said:

The average borrowing of FTBers is £95k against an average FTBer household income of £31k.

If their income assessments are honest.

12 minutes ago, BelfastVI said:

The resale market seen an average loan of £115k against an average household income of £46k

Does this include equity release loans?

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6 hours ago, darkmarket said:

Then you need to consider that a bit less than a third of those employed, which has dropped below 70% now, are part-time. So your median household income is still looking a lot closer to £35k, you have far too many people not in full-time employment for that not to reflect in a significant percentage of households.

This leaves you forced to say the private housing market is only there to serve above average earners, and depend on the floor under the market set by housing benefit.

The average is only £124k, that's hardly much lower. Which would make sense given how much the market depends on that false floor of housing benefit, and how little equity's available to leverage for non-FTBs due to the state of the market.

+1 to this. 

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I have to admit I never guessed things would shoot up the way they have since 2013. I think it could just as easily collapse again, though I'm not saying it will.

In East Belfast you now basically need 2 good wages to buy a house anywhere where you'd want to live. My brother is employed in a good professional job and is still living with the parents approaching 30 because of the price jump, whereas his mates that bought say 3 or 4 years beforehand saw prices much lower.

I also see lots of blatant flipping in the market - saw a small semi in the east listed at £195K the other day that, when you google it, sold for £135K previously.

Many of my friends just wouldn't or couldn't afford Belfast prices.

I've rented the same flat since 2010. In 2010 the rent was £600 a month, and to buy it was £200K. In 2013, the rent was £600 a month and a repo was on sale for £90K. In 2017, the rent is..... £600 a month and to buy one is about £130K.

Make of that what you will (and yes, I should have bought in 2013).

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Oh and what I will say is that these new builds are horrible for the most part i.e. size and build quality, but people don't seem to care. They seem perfectly happy to pay through the nose for far less of a house than they grew up in.

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On 7/28/2017 at 2:15 PM, BelfastVI said:

it doesn't appear to work that way. in general it is people on higher income (average or above) that buy houses. I guess its the same for cars but to a much lesser extent. Again the house price to income ratio is only relevant to a first time buyer. The bank dont look at the price to earnings but the loan to earnings ratio, amongst many other things.

The average FTber house price is much lower than the average house price. CML give a good breakdown of this. I cant remember the figure but it is around £110k to £120k.

 

Interesting thread on the main board. 

The average age of a FTBer is 32 and rising. Interestingly someone pointed out that earning peak at the same age. 

Lifetime of debt for young buyers trying to "move up the ladder". 

 

 

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The CML report show the average age for a FTB in northern Ireland is 30 and most people seem to be borrowing on a lower multiplier than I thought.  With life expectancy increasing (In last 40 years it has increased by 10 years - maybe stalled now) and likelihood of the pension age being 70 or above it will give some sensible people 40 years to get mortgage free (and if you are sensible and maybe lucky far less).

For most people (whether single or as a couple) there first home they buy isn't the home they stay for the rest of their life.  If I was in my twenties I would still buy an apartment or terrace house (not in the city centre) because spending £6k a year would bugging me (unless I thought the price of these type of properties was going down £6k each year). I know there are some drawbacks and extra expenses that you don't realise at the time but I still would - some people choose not to do this .

Some people seems to been lucky with the rent they pay.  I rented in 2011 a semi in Stranmillis below the college and cost £600 per month and there was good selection to pick from, now I only see a few at £850 a month or above - that's £10k a year

 

 

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8 hours ago, carrick01 said:

The CML report show the average age for a FTB in northern Ireland is 30 and most people seem to be borrowing on a lower multiplier than I thought.  With life expectancy increasing (In last 40 years it has increased by 10 years - maybe stalled now) and likelihood of the pension age being 70 or above it will give some sensible people 40 years to get mortgage free (and if you are sensible and maybe lucky far less).

For most people (whether single or as a couple) there first home they buy isn't the home they stay for the rest of their life.  If I was in my twenties I would still buy an apartment or terrace house (not in the city centre) because spending £6k a year would bugging me (unless I thought the price of these type of properties was going down £6k each year). I know there are some drawbacks and extra expenses that you don't realise at the time but I still would - some people choose not to do this .

Some people seems to been lucky with the rent they pay.  I rented in 2011 a semi in Stranmillis below the college and cost £600 per month and there was good selection to pick from, now I only see a few at £850 a month or above - that's £10k a year

 

 

Working until they're 70? Do you see that actually happening? I certainly don't. Average mortgage terms are increasing. When are these people supposed to save into a pension? Try can't fall back on DB schemes. They have to actually save a large percentage of earnings just to survive in later life. I'm not talking 5% here. 

How are these people supposed to save for a rainy day, pay a pension, pay a mortgage for 30 years and have kids? It's not going to work. Something has to give and I'm certain it will be house prices. Again. 

 

Edited by 2buyornot2buy
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21 minutes ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

Working until there 70? Do you see that actually happening? I certainly don't.

Agreed - I have a friend who's in his late 50's and he can't be bothered with work any more. He's in OK health but for many people your 50's is where the wheels start falling off health-wise in my experience. I don't see anything to indicate that today's 30-somethings will be in much better health at 60 than their parents generation. If you do force people to work to 70 you're going to have many rather unproductive employees coming in and doing the bare minimum.

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1 hour ago, JoeDavola said:

Agreed - I have a friend who's in his late 50's and he can't be bothered with work any more. He's in OK health but for many people your 50's is where the wheels start falling off health-wise in my experience. I don't see anything to indicate that today's 30-somethings will be in much better health at 60 than their parents generation. If you do force people to work to 70 you're going to have many rather unproductive employees coming in and doing the bare minimum.

Exactly. People won't be physically able to retire later. The whole idea about automation was that the "robots" would free up our time to actually live. Instead what we have is the amount of working time is actually increasing. I can't grasp why the young aren't rioting. They are at the bottom end of the ponzi and don't even realise it. They've been forced to pay for the lifestyle of the generations before them, been turned into debt slaves and all the while their own quality of life is being eroded. 

 

Buy your own flat or terrace house at 32. Come on. You/partner have 8 years at best to pop a sprog out. In between you're trying to save to buy a house you can actually store a pram in and sit in a garden where you can fit a table and 2 chairs. This is dysfunctional ffs. 

 

My parents were public sector workers. My mum worked on and off for about 15 years. 4 kids so more time not working. They live in a 4 bed detached with a massive garden. They both retired well before 60. 

 

My family unit earns at least 5 times more. We'll above average wage levels. We save a massive amount into our pensions. 

I couldn't dream of having their lifestyle. The pension alone, taken at 55 would mean no kids are possible.  

 

But sure all we should have done was to live in a flat for a few years.  That's would have sorted it. 

 

Edited by 2buyornot2buy
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3 minutes ago, willie said:

And don't forget to factor in paying back those students loans into the bargain.  Todays Uni students will have zero chance of buying a house.

And all to support the pensions of the staff who they'll be lucky to see 8 hours a week, 28 weeks of the year. 

This is another sector automation should destroy. Look at the uni pension deficit. 17 billion... That's enough to to fund the whole of Northern Ireland for a year. 

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With regards to the young (actually not that young, I'm talking about my contemporaries approaching their mid-30s), they seem to:

- not care how small/no garden the house is, as long as they can make the payments every month

- many have decided not to have children, I'm including couples with a low 'middle class' income - many of these folk don't seem to want to have kids any more - I don't know whether it's a financial thing or a cultural thing i.e. we've been brought up to view the traditional family life as 'boring' and don't want to make the sacrifice of children

- people on minimum wage, no benefit jobs who have no chance of saving for the future, buying a house, or any of that. They end up quite nihilistic and drink a lot.

- the 'underclass' with their free council homes, who have been breeding like rabbits from the age of 15 and are soon to be at an age when they'll become grandparents 

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23 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Agreed - I have a friend who's in his late 50's and he can't be bothered with work any more. He's in OK health but for many people your 50's is where the wheels start falling off health-wise in my experience. I don't see anything to indicate that today's 30-somethings will be in much better health at 60 than their parents generation. If you do force people to work to 70 you're going to have many rather unproductive employees coming in and doing the bare minimum.

Everybody has different life experience but I know people that are working into there late 70s.  Some through choice and some  not.  I know employees in their 20s that are quite "unproductive" and do the bare minimum. Some in manual jobs and some not. For people under 48 its already 68 - so do you really think its going less than 70 for someone in their 20s?

If in the 50s someone ""can't be bothered with work any more" are we really expecting him to own or aspire to a house?

How many typical 20 year olds do you know that are saving for the pension except through company, public sector or government "workplace pension" scheme.  

We will all just rent detached house with big gardens the rest of our life - that's the answer.  Belfast will look a lot nicer but also a lot bigger.

 

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