Now That The Long Awaited Hpc Is Underway

[basildonian]

Me too having STR in late 2002...

On the other hand I am feeling smug ...

Not being funny but I don't see how you can feel smug yet. Surely prices will have to drop a LONG way before you can really say your STR was worth it.

Baz

[bazzzzzzz]

House prices are still yoy positive.

What's to celebrate?

We're at least 5 years before prices return to long term averages.

I find this exuberant euphoria quite irrational.

Edited April 28, 2008 by Baz63

[Michael]

Scared stiff!............because my job most certainly ISN'T recession-proof..............

[Michael]

I am strongly in favour of state intervention to reduce the increasing volatility of the housing market, but there is no way that taxing it or issuing legal edicts to prevent its excesses will ever be popular or tolerated. I strongly favour a long-term plan to increase the proportion of public rented housing in the housing stock. With owner occupation rates now hovering around 80% of the total housing stock, we will increasingly have 10-15 year repeats of the boom-bust cycle.

But this cycle is in a market which is not even a private market, because at the end of each bust there has to be state intervention from the Bank of England to prop up the debt mountain that the bubble cycle has generated. It happened in 1991-93 and it is happening again now on a far bigger scale. If public money can be found to shove £100bn propping up the owner occupation economy, then it can be found to build a significant rented housing sector to provide a long-term buffer against the absurdities of the market system. If it were planned over a 30-year period then we could aim for a rented sector of 50% to balance an owner occupation sector of 50% of the total housing stock. And we need never again fall for the lie that boom and bust has been eliminated.

How about making all mortgages long term fixes......?

[Guest xeouialp]

How about making all mortgages long term fixes......?

There is no regulatory solution to this. The owner occupation market has to be reduced as a proportion of the total housing stock.

[Michael]

Quote Clair ''I am not sure the Tories would have managed it diferently, ''

Too right!........There'd have much less tax and spend under the Tories but when it came to the housing boom and credit crunch there'd have been no difference...After all, it was the Tories who deregulated the banking system in the 80s...

thaT'S WHY THE tORIES HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO MAKE ANY POLITICAL CAPITAL out of the credit crunch.....

They'll make a lot out of tax and spend when the budget deficit reaches 7% of GDP though

[shippers]

I'm sort of looking forward to five years time. We've just negotiated and are about to finalise a contract for 2years plus option for 1, I have to do the IT Support Contract part of it. So future should be secured till then. By 2011 I should have my OU degree in the bag. My nephews will have more of a chance of independent living away from their mum's house (one completed his apprenticeship for Scania last year, the other is doing Psychiatric Nursing, and will be qualified and looking after Hannibal Lector types).

But as I've said on here before I also have regrets that my ex bought a house in May 2006, against my feelings at the time, even though I wanted us to rent for another couple of years. I feel sorry for her. I obviously think she made a mistake ditching me, but I think also she'll be in serious financial trouble before long, or at least trapped in the area. The area isn't really that great and she doesn't like the job she's doing (supply and contract MFL teaching). The night we split up I said she should sell up and go home to Germany.

The house she bought cost £146k, she put down 20k deposit.

A house a couple of doors down was bought a couple of months before in 2006 for £123k, in 2004 the same house sold for £80k., I think places will at least revert to 2004 levels

I know I shouldn't care, but I do still think about her :-/

[Its time to buy]

I know I shouldn't care, but I do still think about her :-/

Life carries on for everyone. FOCUS on yourself, keep yourself moving onwards and upwards as they say. No time to dily daly on the past.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

There is no regulatory solution to this. The owner occupation market has to be reduced as a proportion of the total housing stock.

I am fairly certain the only solution to this is a land tax. Say 0.75% of property value per year, with the abolition of Council Tax.

However, I can't see it being that popular, though it might be a stunt Brown might try if he could skew it against Tory areas and in favour of Labour ones.

A £200k home would pay £1500 per year, a £1m would pay £7500k, though perhaps it could be progressive, say 1% on a £1m house.

Edited April 29, 2008 by mikelivingstone

[Guest xeouialp]

I am fairly certain the only solution to this is a land tax. Say 0.75% of property value per year, with the abolition of Council Tax.

However, I can't see it being that popular, though it might be a stunt Brown might try if he could skew it against Tory areas and in favour of Labour ones.

A £200k home would pay £1500 per year, a £1m would pay £7500k, though perhaps it could be progressive, say 1% on a £1m house.

That's a taxation intervention in a private market. It's an ideological non-starter for any of the 3 major parties. Besides which, when the next debt bubble comes, lenders will just provide bigger 100%+ loans to enable people to pay the tax, hence a bigger debt bubble.

There's only one long term solution: get rid of the dominance of the private ownership market.

[Paddles]

There is no regulatory solution to this. The owner occupation market has to be reduced as a proportion of the total housing stock.

I disagree. I'll keep repeating this because I believe it's the simple solution; lenders must keep loans on their books.

"Risk Management" isn't credible if you're assessing someone else's risk rather than your own.

[lets get it right]

A regulatory solution is not difficult to imagine or implement. But, given that most people during their lives amass no wealth other than the money locked up in their property, it would be politically difficult. Which political party would want to be the one that introduces measures to limit what people have become to think of as their right - ever increasing property 'wealth'?

Unless you can change the daft mentality that houses mean EVERYTHING to people - it is hard to visualise a solution that any political party would be happy to implement.

When Gordon Brown put stamp duty up so you paid 3% above 250k I thought 'that will KILL the market around here - who is going to willingly hand over 7.5k to the government when they buy a house.' Important lesson in life is to remember how wrong you can be.

Even now when I am looking at property - the idea of paying above 250k really, really grates.

[Sheer Heart Attack]

Even though I am a homeowner, I feel happy the crash is underway. We need to get back to being an economy that makes them and sells them to others - we can't run solely on financial, insurance and property services.

If it gets the inane and selfish notion out of people's heads as well that a house is not just there to fund dreams you couldn't afford in the first place, great. If it means a return to sensible lending and structured business plans, brilliant.

At the same time, I am terrified though by what the next few years will bring. I very nearly became one of the first casualties of the recession-to-be and it was not very pleasant. I do wonder how far away the bottom is and not knowing is the scariest things of all.

[caseyloca]

A tax of 20% at point of sale for those who already owned a home would have helped ... It would have slowed down the flippers and put off many BTLers and holiday home buyers from investing.

and how would you implement that policy?

[Disillusioned]

In answer to OP: Slight boredom, since everything is happening as many on this site have predicted. We're just waiting for the bottom now...

[crashmonitor]

Surprised at the speed of the crash,my prediction in December was for a -4% annual.F**ked up on 2007 too ,when I went for +7%.It IS different this time ,it is happening a lot quicker.

[north/south divide]

Happy about the price drops but worried will I be in a job and be able to get a Mortgage when we hit the bottom

My sentiments exactly. Pleased to see and hear all the bearish news bounding about, but really quite worried about the state of the economy and whether we will have jobs to even get a mortgage..

[abharrisson]

Well in 2003 this site was clearly wrong - it has taken the best part of five years for it to happen.

Soon as the words subprime were common knowledge is when it all began for the masses

Timing is everything... might be worth starting up a website called housepriceboom...... that too will be right eventually, and everyone on it will breathe a huge sigh of relief that they saw it first and everyone has finally listened... should take about seven years..... if the stats are anything to go by.