0q0 Posted December 25, 2007 Share Posted December 25, 2007 Greetings, I hope you've all walked off the turkey or additive-filled veggie version. Happy Hols to all and hoping it's going well. Had my long Xmas walk today around North London and into Herts, walked some fairly local streets that I've never seen before, luckily rain not too bad where I was. This culminated in my checking the asking prices for homes I'd seen as up for sale on my walk. And then I checked the previous selling prices on NHP. Sacré bleu! There's utterly no sign of any drops, even in the properties that are 'no upper chain' (ie repo'ed or BTL selling up). In fact, the prices are still well up on just 10 months ago. Looking back to '05 prices, they look like they were given away by comparison! So, what dreams may come, well I hope reality returns to the price of property next year as all the factors come to bite. But my guess is that there's some cash-rich people who may swoop at the first drops and prolong values and postpone serious declines for that little bit longer. Question is, am not sure what the definition of little bit longer is going to mean, which of us has that crystal ball... I've no intention of going ahead and buying at even 20% off the asking prices I saw today - but how many others will stick to their guns the same as me. Or will they just go abroad as I'm thinking of doing, and what will we all find abroad, will all of us heading off overseas push prices up there too? Parts of the States are already reporting a significant influx of Brit money into their properties, I wonder if the same will happen to good parts of Europe or to Australia where I'd probably go and boost HPI there. I'd stay liquid longer if I wasn't somewhat fearful of Sterling getting devalued and inflation eating it my cash's value. By the way, anybody know how many times a year National Savings does a new index-linked savings issue as I think I can put max £15K in each which might give some inflationary safety if they don't fiddle the RPI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrpleasant Posted December 25, 2007 Share Posted December 25, 2007 I suppose there's no law against stupid people having money. Interesting that so many of them live in North London and Herts, though. Do you think it's the water? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IDN Posted December 25, 2007 Share Posted December 25, 2007 yep in decent parts fo london- prices are higher than a year ago and show no signs of going down any time soon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the end is a bit nigher Posted December 25, 2007 Share Posted December 25, 2007 few drops here either, even those that have been on the market for the best part of a year (my friend's is the one i am thinking of) - i am reliably informed that interets rate cuts will result in a massive spring bounce - in return i informed that there would be no spring bounce and once everyone realised this, there would be a sudden and cataclysmic drop in prices Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cells Posted December 25, 2007 Share Posted December 25, 2007 expect to wait at lest a year to see drops over a large spectrum although here in north london, i can say asking prices for 3 bed semis have droped quite a bit. there was nothing in the area i check for under 290k 6months ago. now there are quite a few on at 260-280k Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crash2006 Posted December 25, 2007 Share Posted December 25, 2007 Some prices will stay the same and they will not sell, another set of interest rates to drop i dont think so since dec1 we had 5% drop in the value of our pound, so your looking at 5% plus increases in prices from imported goods plus domestic inflation prices form imports. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OzzMosiz Posted December 25, 2007 Share Posted December 25, 2007 I don't know why those knob heads who buy, just don't give ALL their future salary away Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dog Posted December 25, 2007 Share Posted December 25, 2007 Its like the chap who falls off a 20 storey building. As he passes the 10th floor he shouts to someone at the window and says; "no problems so far". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ah-so Posted December 25, 2007 Share Posted December 25, 2007 Have you put your postcode into propertysnake? I am not surprised that asking prices are not falling. I would expect 1) fewer offers to be made, followed by 2) a decline in offer prices followed 3) falling sale prices and 4) falling asking prices. We are still at 1 and 2. 3 and 4 are what everyone now expects to happen in 2008, but this has not really started yet. Those houses you saw for sale have probably been on for some time, but have not sold. They are now waiting for the Spring bounce. The Spring market is going to be crucial. I expect potential buyers to sit on their hands, while forced sellers increase. The economic conditions are falling into place for a "perfect storm", the modern euphemism for a bloodbath. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
0q0 Posted December 25, 2007 Author Share Posted December 25, 2007 Thank you everybody for the feedback and heads up, read all carefully and obviously really good points from you. Do I appreciate your responses? Not 'arf ! Am heading off to a small drinks party now, shall report back any interesting stuff if I hear any at the anecdotes thread, but probably people will be to p'd to talk any sense, well that's always my excuse! bye ! PS Hope your visiting families aren't driving you nuts, if they are then remember they'll be out your hair in just a few more hours. It might seem like months but it'll be hours... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InternationalRockSuperstar Posted December 25, 2007 Share Posted December 25, 2007 if they don't fiddle the RPI. They always fiddle the RPI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fairies Wear Boots Posted December 26, 2007 Share Posted December 26, 2007 Patience Last Bear. Patience you must have. If you've been reading this site in depth you'll have read lots of valid points why the market can't stay artificially high. And the market turns slowly. few drops here either, even those that have been on the market for the best part of a year (my friend's is the one i am thinking of) - i am reliably informed that interets rate cuts will result in a massive spring bounce - in return i informed that there would be no spring bounce and once everyone realised this, there would be a sudden and cataclysmic drop in prices That's what I'm hoping for. The end is nigh, indeed! Spring bounce my ar$e. FTBers are priced out. BTL isn't profitable and future capital appreciation is uncertain. And if you wanna loan, lenders are starting a flight to quality. I, too have nagging doubts about these rate cuts being the panacea for the housing market ills, but we have the credit crunch, four months of falls, the dent in confidence that was the 'Northern Rock debacle' and lots of bearish press some saying zero percent HPI others minus ten percent. If those feckers at the BoE slash in January, do you think we'll see a massive bounce? Do ya? Do ya!? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted December 26, 2007 Share Posted December 26, 2007 No drops, huh? Well, not accrding to Rightmove. 6.8% fall in one month on asking prices in London! Anyway, how come you think no drops in asking prices is symptomatic of no change? It just means nothing's selling. What happens when we see that? Prices drop 'cos the EAs persuade sellers (sorry they call them vendors!!!!!!!! ) to reduce. What's your point? No drops therefore no crash? Nonsense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
microbe Posted December 26, 2007 Share Posted December 26, 2007 This is the Wile E. Coyote moment. High out over the canyon, still running. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fergie Posted December 26, 2007 Share Posted December 26, 2007 (edited) No obviously dropping prices in Edinburgh either, still stupidly high (although thankfully not rising any longer). However, I do think there are some early warning signs. Rental costs don't seem to have gone up in ten years, for one thing, despite typical "rental" flats going up in price by 300-500% and there seems to be a glut of rentals too. So I guess we have a stand off period, of few people buying at those prices, but not willing to accept lower, few people selling because the market's tough, many people expecting it to bounce back, and everyone waiting to see what happens. I'm sure there are quite a number of buyers testing the waters who're hoping for cheaper prices next year, but prepared to jump in if there does appear to be a spring bounce, to get in before the next round of HPI. Hopefully not enough for more than a dead cat bounce, but I still wouldn't rule out a spring bounce! Edited December 26, 2007 by Fergie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
0q0 Posted December 26, 2007 Author Share Posted December 26, 2007 The Spring market is going to be crucial. I expect potential buyers to sit on their hands, while forced sellers increase. ... it is just soooo not about asking prices.people can ask what they like but they'll have to take what they're offered Yes, am waiting and thinking much the same - in hope ! This is the Wile E. Coyote moment. High out over the canyon, still running. lol well put, but still reeling from the shock of checking the asking prices yesterday and comparing to NHP, here's hoping... No anecdotes from drinks party - just the odd comment "so many people coming to live here, they've got to live somewhere, how can property fall?" - I handled it well, headbutting him and my case comes up mid January at the magistrates. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the end is a bit nigher Posted December 26, 2007 Share Posted December 26, 2007 I handled it well, headbutting him and my case comes up mid January at the magistrates. I do hope that's humour! - although there is a fair case for knocking the stupidity out of some people Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecrashingisles Posted December 26, 2007 Share Posted December 26, 2007 No anecdotes from drinks party - just the odd comment "so many people coming to live here, they've got to live somewhere, how can property fall?" - I handled it well, headbutting him and my case comes up mid January at the magistrates. LOL. You should have said, "People with money are leaving the country while people with none are arriving. How can property go up?" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the end is a bit nigher Posted December 26, 2007 Share Posted December 26, 2007 LOL. You should have said, "People with money are leaving the country while people with none are arriving. How can property go up?" how about "only a complete idiot would buy at the moment" - i find his particularly effective when said to someone you know has just bought (but they don't think you know) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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