What's Going On With Business At The Moment?

[Jason]

Ok, a few anecdotes from me:

I work for an exporter, and I have to say business is booming - although Foot and Mouth has hit air orders. I had expected a slow down due to the high £, but this has just not happened at all. My other concern is the HK$, where a major customer is, where it's pegged to the US$ - and we know what's happening with that.

Oh and shipping rates are going up a lot, so a bit of ringing round for cheaper rates for me. But a far higher rate has been accounted for by... me; I'm so clever.

I can guess a few companies will be late with paying invoices this month, as lots will probably blame the postal strike. Even our company, who have no problems paying, are going to delay posting cheques and anyone who rings up asking why it's late will be sold the postal strike excuse (according to someone in the accounts dept)!

I've spoke with a few bouncers I know, friend of a friend thing, and all have reported a big drop in customers since July (this was before uni started). Unfortunately, although I'm sure they're partially right, they're blaming the smoking ban for this decrease. This isn't just one pub/club either.

[Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable]

On another note: I've recently talked to a German dentist (private). He said business had considerably slowed down over the last three months and he's now paying staff from bank credit. He also has a customer who owns a major German drugstore chain. She told him that business was so bad, they even had to lay off some of their top managers. You would think a drugstore chain is the last to feel the pain, since we all need our mouthwashs and shampoos. But obviously not.

Time to burn down the Reichstag Building again, I feel.

For the good of the economy.

[dubsie]

I'm a heating engineer and I'm dead too, normally frantic at this time of year. I'm going back to new build for a bit to make some quick cash.

[Sheer Heart Attack]

From all the responses, it seems like a mixed picture, although with the negative outweighing the positive.

I've been lurking on HPC since 2004 and only decided to join up yesterday. I have wished for a house price correction for years. I have a mortgage on my current place - I can't believe I paid as much as I did for a little shoebox two bedroom house.

There is real fear stalking business out there, from my experience. In advertising and marketing, you tend to speak with businesspeople when they are high as a kite and want to push for more sales, or scrabbling around looking for a way to raise some cash. There's a whole load more of the latter at the moment.

A house price correction is fine. An ecomonic crash would be terrible. I wish for the former without the latter, but I fear I am wishing in vain.

[88Crash]

A house price correction is fine. An ecomonic crash would be terrible. I wish for the former without the latter, but I fear I am wishing in vain.

I run a technolgy company and we have a mixture of clients including several big housebuilders

In the last few weeks I have noticed a BIG CHANGE in sentiment (not to mention sales) from those guys

The younger guys and girls are hoping its going to blow over - the older sales directors remember last time and they know whats coming

[dubsie]

I run a technolgy company and we have a mixture of clients including several big housebuilders

In the last few weeks I have noticed a BIG CHANGE in sentiment (not to mention sales) from those guys

The younger guys and girls are hoping its going to blow over - the older sales directors remember last time and they know whats coming

I hate to say this, do you know how many construction workers will be made redundant if the major builders freeze there projects. Over the last 7 years we have trained millions more tradesmen and nearly all of them are working in the new build sector. Not to mention the fact that much needed homes won't get built, it would topple the whole economy.

[strbear]

I work across many verticals mentoring company MDs - I have to say that the outlook varies but reflects what you might expect - discretionary spend is falling pretty sharply (both corporate and individual) - retail is really struggling up here - industrial seems to be OK right now but outlook is less strong - overall I'd say the picture is on the change but yet to tip over - however not sure it will take long.

Anyone else see the same?

SB

[No Muggy Bear]

I work in the reprographics field, it's getting scarily close to redundancies again IMO. A lot of sweating the staff and squeezing out as much productivity wihout a hint of any future pay rises, we have all forgotten what they are like. It sucks already.

[88Crash]

I hate to say this, do you know how many construction workers will be made redundant if the major builders freeze there projects. Over the last 7 years we have trained millions more tradesmen and nearly all of them are working in the new build sector. Not to mention the fact that much needed homes won't get built, it would topple the whole economy.

I agree, which is why

a) they won't stop

they can't stop

c) They will have to reduce prices

d) this will affect all UK House price indexes

e) this will have a major impact on sentiment

[Downtown Brown]

A house price correction is fine. An ecomonic crash would be terrible. I wish for the former without the latter, but I fear I am wishing in vain.

When the whole economy has been built on consumer spending financed from HPI regrettably there can only be one outcome and you are correct to feel your wish is in vain.

Regards,

DT.......

[Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable]

Medicine. All seems pretty steady. A few more benefits chancers having a go. Bit more divorce, depression. Not much more suicide than usual so far. I might hold off setting up the private practice for a bit.

[Isakndar]

Broadcasting is an all together different matter to interpret. My company is a Satellite Broadcasting services provider, and there has been a huge consolidation in the industry and we have benefited enormously this year. We are continuing to expand with major organisations outsourcing to people like us who work to business plans that work for 5 years or more. But all the new smaller business prospects, Shopping, Religion and Porn seem to have noticeably disappeared or at least slowed down in the past two months and I put that down to lack of credit. But TV is a bit of an in-elastic product - if people do not go out so much they stay at home and watch TV.

That aside, I am expecting a recession of the scale of the 1990-93 coinciding with a rather large house price correction.

[Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable]

Broadcasting is an all together different matter to interpret. My company is a Satellite Broadcasting services provider, and there has been a huge consolidation in the industry and we have benefited enormously this year. We are continuing to expand with major organisations outsourcing to people like us who work to business plans that work for 5 years or more. But all the new smaller business prospects, Shopping, Religion and Porn seem to have noticeably disappeared or at least slowed down in the past two months and I put that down to lack of credit. But TV is a bit of an in-elastic product - if people do not go out so much they stay at home and watch TV.

That aside, I am expecting a recession of the scale of the 1990-93 coinciding with a rather large house price correction.

A bit of consolidation in the Religion and Porn sectors might revive a jaded audience.

[Isakndar]

A bit of consolidation in the Religion and Porn sectors might revive a jaded audience.

I have made that suggestion on a few occasions though it has happened by accident before now (a long time ago) ! The fall out can involve the Foreign Offices of a few governments. eeep!

[Sinking Feeling]

I got out of advertising 3 and a half years ago because its the first thing to be affected when there's a downturn in business- I realised that soon after I started in September 2001 and everyone was moaning how quiet it had become - then the BoE slashed interest rates and we were busy again. The simple fact is that this summer marked the end of the 18 year economic cycle, the next 3 years are all downhill, the next 3-4 after that subdued then bit of boom, bit of bust, and the big boom 2019-2025!

[lets get it right]

I've never seen anything like this September and October, and I've been running an advertising company for the best part of decade now.

In advertising (small-scale stuff), September to mid-December and mid-January to late May are when we make our money. We expect to lose money in the other months, but that's just business.

It feels like everyone seems to have forgotten that they have to buy and sell things to make money.

Our trade is 50% down on this time last year - and we're an advertising company! I've had lots of concerned customers wondering what the hell is going on - a couple of them nearly in tears because some of them are taking even bigger hits than we are.

We have two main areas of trade - one is 30% down on this time last year and one is 75% down. We're doing all the same things we've done for years.

To anyone else who runs a smaller business or works in a smaller business, is it very quiet for you this year for some reason?

What effect the Northern Rock, the credit crunch and the housing market?

When times get tight the first thing to go, ironically, is the advertising budget. It's when times are tight that people realise what a complete waste of money it is.

[thecrashingisles]

A bit of consolidation in the Religion and Porn sectors might revive a jaded audience.

I'm investing in Sister Paula:

[Isakndar]

I got out of advertising 3 and a half years ago because its the first thing to be affected when there's a downturn in business- I realised that soon after I started in September 2001 and everyone was moaning how quiet it had become - then the BoE slashed interest rates and we were busy again. The simple fact is that this summer marked the end of the 18 year economic cycle, the next 3 years are all downhill, the next 3-4 after that subdued then bit of boom, bit of bust, and the big boom 2019-2025!

There is no doubt about it this year that this was the year it would happen - I felt it in my water so to speak in feb -march - I made a personal prediction for Sept/Oct for the crash this year then and told everyone in my office - who largely agreed oddly. So I sold up my flat (I was going to do this anyway) while I could. I have no doubts we are onto a downturn a bit like 1990-93/6. The fact is we are in a full blown economic crash right now, but most people have not really felt it yet and the annualised and quarterly stats do not show it.

[lets get it right]

I didnt know that was your field, O.

Do you happen to know anything about electronic toys and robotics?

If so, I might have one or two stock ideas for you

My youngest son has one of those pretty flash Japanese robots. Every now and then the bloody thing starts up on its own and makes a right racket. I work from home - alone all day - and the other day I went up to my son's room, opened the curtain, brushed the curtain against it (it was on the window cill) and off it went - making a right racket. Buggered if I could switch it off. So I took it out to the garage and, rather than have it run its batteries down, took the batteries out and laid the robot on the floor - intending to come out later when my son came home etc.

When I went out to the garage later that afternoon to bring it back in, I glanced into the garage through the half glazed back door (as I was opening it) and the robot was standing up. I keep expecting to see it standing in the doorway behind me. Or next to my bed if I wake up in the night.

Might have to be sledge hammer job.

If it doesn't get me first.

[thecrashingisles]

My youngest son has one of those pretty flash Japanese robots. Every now and then the bloody thing starts up on its own and makes a right racket. I work from home - alone all day - and the other day I went up to my son's room, opened the curtain, brushed the curtain against it (it was on the window cill) and off it went - making a right racket. Buggered if I could switch it off. So I took it out to the garage and, rather than have it run its batteries down, took the batteries out and laid the robot on the floor - intending to come out later when my son came home etc.

When I went out to the garage later that afternoon to bring it back in, I glanced into the garage through the half glazed back door (as I was opening it) and the robot was standing up. I keep expecting to see it standing in the doorway behind me. Or next to my bed if I wake up in the night.

Might have to be sledge hammer job.

If it doesn't get me first.

Have you ever seen the Chuckie films?

[redwing]

Post office strike is hurting lots of internet stuff.

That's kind of ironic really, isn't it?

[Uriah Heap]

I know a small shop in a posh town in the south east. Takings are up recently. The clientele is mainly elderly women from well to do backgrounds. A lot of them pay by American Express. They mainly live on income from savings in the bank. I expect that they are all enjoying the extra interest they are getting.

[Mr Nice]

When times get tight the first thing to go, ironically, is the advertising budget. It's when times are tight that people realise what a complete waste of money it is.

that's about entirely wrong.

cutting your ad budget itsn't the way out of lowering sales.

you might need to change the focus, highlight value etc.

but sticking your head under a rock is a quick way to go under.

[Sheer Heart Attack]

that's about entirely wrong.

cutting your ad budget itsn't the way out of lowering sales.

you might need to change the focus, highlight value etc.

but sticking your head under a rock is a quick way to go under.

Actually, the original poster (Lets' get it right) is correct to a large degree about how companies behave when they feel squeezed.

We are getting perhaps two thirds of the calls we would expect at this time of year (and we're advertising and marketing ourselves more than usual), not as many people are buying and when they are, their order value is far down from the historical average this time of year.

I agree with you - the time to advertise more is when you're selling less. Not everyone seems to though.

We do mailshots and B2B telesales primarily for other companies - so we're quite direct!

[FTBagain]

Most of you own your own businesses, and hats off to you all.

I work for a large research company, have done for 19 years (come next Wednesday, gulp!). The last few years have not been good for me, struggled to keep busy, however, this year has been much better. I have managed to find a niche for myself, and boy do I intend to exploit it.

What is really worrying is that my company is not afraid to close posts if the sector is not doing well. They apparently close about 200 a year. They either redeploy into new markets or show you the door. I guess if I can keep myself busy I should be OK, but it means regular direct contact with the customer, something I have only really been able to do this year. In effect I am in the position of making my own sales and then delivering the product. Good news is I seem to be quite good at it as most of my experience is on the delivery side.

The thing is my position, on a personnal level, feels not unlike some yours. My investment is different to all of yours, but 19 years with company pension (which incidently just took a hit) would be a huge loss to me. I have a strategy in place which I hope will see me through, all any off us can do is keep going and hope we earn a little luck along the way.