Aberdeen, Aspc Stats

[Ignorantbliss]

https://www.aberdeenlive.news/news/aberdeen-news/aberdeen-ranked-worst-uk-area-7674624

Quote

Aberdeen ranked worst UK area to invest in property after recording 10-year drop in house prices
The Granite City has seen the worst return on investment in the UK for property after being the only area to record a decrease in property prices during the last 10 years

Aberdeen has been ranked the worst place in the UK to invest in property after being the only area to record a decrease in property prices during the last 10 years.

The study, conducted by online trading platform, CMC Markets, also ranked Aberdeenshire as the third worst area in a blow to the property market in the north-east.

House price data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) was analysed for each local authority in the UK between 2012 and 2022 to discover which area saw the highest increase in house prices and therefore provides the highest return on investment.

The Granite City was named the UK area that has seen the lowest return on investment in property, being the only area where house prices have actually decreased.

In 2012, the average house price in the City of Aberdeen was £160,525.51 but the average price has now decreased by 9.9 per cent in the past ten years, with the average price costing £144,614.52 in 2022.

The UK area with the second lowest increase in house prices is Inverclyde. House prices in Inverclyde averaged at £100,389.36 in 2012 and have risen to £115,244.09 as of this year.

This means that there has been a 14.8 per cent rise in prices – the second lowest number of any local authority analysed.

Aberdeenshire has the third lowest increase in property prices in the last decade. There has been a 15.4 per cent rise in house prices in the Scottish area in the past decade.

In 2012, the average house price in Aberdeenshire was £173,885.79 whereas in 2022, the average house price now stands at £200,590.18 according to the ONS data.

 

[sandster]

Would agree with that. Couple of houses similar to mine on our street were on the market and were o/o less than what we paid 10 or so years ago.

Edited October 11, 2022 by sandster

[Ignorantbliss]

https://web.archive.org/web/20230202210640/https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/business/local/5338291/savills-says-aberdeen-house-prices-fell-1-3-in-2022-but-the-400000-600000-market-in-bieldside-cults-and-broomhill-did-particularly-well/

Savills annual Scottish Property Outlook. 

Quote

Property giant Savills said sales volumes rose in the Granite City.

But the decline in value left average prices 26% off their peak of 2015.

Aberdeenshire prices continued to pick up, despite a drop in sales volumes, and are now just 2% less than their peak in 2015.

Savills held its annual Scottish Property Outlook – Aberdeen event at the Marcliffe Hotel and Spa at Pitfodels yesterday.

Faisal Choudhry, the firm’s head of residential research in Scotland, delivered his latest analysis of local markets to 200 property professionals, developers and investors.

He reported “demand shifting towards homes in urban areas that are close to local services and places of work”.

This marks a reversal of a recent trend for people seeking homes with more space in rural locations in response to the Covid pandemic.

Aberdeen is benefitting, with sales in the city showing “continuous recovery” since 2020, guests were told.

Mr Choudhry also reported an expected 1.4% increase in average house prices in the city over the next five years, compared with growth of 9.5% throughout Scotland.

The Aberdeen market will be “more subdued” due to “modest economic recovery and lingering high levels of mainstream stock”, he said.

Granite City house prices are now “adjusting” after several years of outperforming the wider Scottish market, Mr Choudhry said.

The equity-driven “prime” market of homes worth £400,000-£600,000 is driving change, he added.

Upmarket areas like Bieldside, Cults and Broomhill “performed particularly well” last year, he said.

He continued: “Aberdeen’s prime residential market tends to be driven by equity rather than debt.

“Whilst it won’t be completely immune to the economic pressure facing the wider market, price adjustments are likely to be less severe.”

The Aberdeen market was also boosted by healthy sales of homes worth more than £1 million last year.

There were 29 of these – the biggest annual tally for seven years – during 2022 in a north-east market taking in Moray, Angus and Tayside, as well as Aberdeen city and shire.

Mr Choudhry said house prices across Scotland at the end of 2022 were 20% higher than before the pandemic,

Sales outperformed the pre-pandemic market until October, before the mini Budget and subsequent mortgage market disruption, he added.

He continued: “It’s been a rollercoaster of a ride…, with lifestyle choices driving demand then economic shocks putting downward pressure on the market, including in the north-east.”

“Our most recent survey suggests a more positive long-term outlook among buyers across the UK.

“And the fact 14% more buyers registered with Savills to buy a property in the north-east last year, compared to before the pandemic, also provides cause for optimism.”

Experts expect the Bank of England base rate of interest to hit 4% in the coming months and stay at that level until the end of the year.

Mr Choudhry said: “Beyond 2023, subject to inflation being tamed, we expect an improvement in mortgage affordability which will  gradually bring more buyers into the market.

Fiona Gormley, head of residential for Savills in Aberdeen said:  “Whilst we anticipate a price sensitive market this year, established patterns of hybrid working are upholding the demand for more space in both city and country areas, including a separate space to work.

“In addition, the cost of refurbishing a home has risen significantly over the last few years, with a rapid rise in the price of materials and labour.

“Consequently, well-presented properties tend to be in greater demand. Meanwhile, given the rapid rise in utility bills, the energy efficiency of a property is now higher up buyers’ requirements.”

Reporting another regional trend, Ruaraidh Ogilvie, head of residential for Savills in the north-east said: “The number of properties we have sold to buyers from outside Scotland has increased by a third, compared to the period before the pandemic.”

 

[shortbread]

UK House Price Index: December 2022, Aberdeen falls -4% YoY

Quote

In Scotland, average prices increased by 5.7% in the 12 months to December 2022, increasing slower than average UK house prices (9.8%) and down from 6.2% in the 12 months to November 2022. In December 2022, the most expensive area to purchase a property was City of Edinburgh, where the average cost was £330,000.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, average house prices in Scotland decreased by 2.9% between November and December 2022, compared with a decrease of 2.5% during the same period 12 months ago. On a seasonally adjusted basis, average house prices in Scotland decreased by 1.4% between November and December 2022.

The highest annual percentage change was in Midlothian, where average house prices increased by 12.5% in the 12 months to December 2022 to £243,000. The lowest annual percentage change was in City of Aberdeen, where average house prices decreased by 4.0% in the 12 months to December 2022 to £139,000.

 

Quote

SALES VOLUME

The amount of time between the sale of a property and the registration of this information varies. It typically ranges between 2 weeks and 2 months but can be longer. Volume figures for the most recent 2 months are not yet at a reliable level for reporting, so they are not included in the report.

Comparing the provisional volume estimate for October 2021 provisional volume estimate for October 2021 with the provisional volume estimate for October 2022, the volume of transactions decreased by 12.5% in Scotland and increased by 77.3% in the UK.

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-house-price-index-for-december-2022/uk-house-price-index-scotland-december-2022

[shortbread]

ABERDEEN HOUSE PRICE CRASH SAGA, Average prices hit near 16 YEAR LOW!

The story of UK's biggest house price crash. 

At its peak in 2014, the Dec'14 average house price reading was £196,037. The latest UK gov Dec'22 average house price reads £139,347, ie. a 29% fall! The last time Aberdeen city average prices were below £140k was way back in February 2007. How this moves going forward is difficult to call. While the headwinds caused by rising interest rates and the cost of living crisis means that prices could see further falls, on the other hand Aberdeen's economy is on far better footing supported by the buoyant (and leaner) O&G industry. It is likely that going forward prices might remain stagnant or worst case scenario creep lower, significant falls are unlikely I think. Until and unless there is a govt. intervention to prop up house prices. Watch this space!

[Nomadd]

3 hours ago, shortbread said:

ABERDEEN HOUSE PRICE CRASH SAGA, Average prices hit near 16 YEAR LOW!

The story of UK's biggest house price crash. 

At its peak in 2014, the Dec'14 average house price reading was £196,037. The latest UK gov Dec'22 average house price reads £139,347, ie. a 29% fall! The last time Aberdeen city average prices were below £140k was way back in February 2007. How this moves going forward is difficult to call. While the headwinds caused by rising interest rates and the cost of living crisis means that prices could see further falls, on the other hand Aberdeen's economy is on far better footing supported by the buoyant (and leaner) O&G industry. It is likely that going forward prices might remain stagnant or worst case scenario creep lower, significant falls are unlikely I think. Until and unless there is a govt. intervention to prop up house prices. Watch this space!

If only the rest of the UK was like that - we'd be a far better off country.

[shortbread]

On 16/02/2023 at 19:54, Nomadd said:

If only the rest of the UK was like that - we'd be a far better off country.

Well if the BoE hold the rates for a year and doesn't chicken out, then the fortunes of the UK housing market could look eerily similar to that of Aberdeen. 

[Nomadd]

1 minute ago, shortbread said:

Well if the BoE hold the rates for a year and doesn't chicken out, then the fortunes of the UK housing market could look eerily similar to that of Aberdeen. 

Indeed. May actually find its hand is forced.

[regprentice]

28 minutes ago, shortbread said:

Well if the BoE hold the rates for a year and doesn't chicken out, then the fortunes of the UK housing market could look eerily similar to that of Aberdeen. 

Aberdeens a few years ahead of the rest of the UK. If you assume looking at Aberdeen gives us a view if the rest if the UK in 5 years or so then in 2025-2027 it will be a long slow decline, not a crash, and the following will be true...

- House prices have fallen slowly over 3 or more years and are now 30% lower than the peak

- Rents have fallen by the same amount

- There hasnt been any major sell off of houses. 

- There hasnt been any major reduction in the number of landlords or properties to rent.

- There are still an insane number of new build houses and new build estates being built. lots documented in this thread.

- a lot of commercial property has been converted to residential adding to the housing stock. 

- There hasnt been a significant fall in the population, given other parts of the UK have been doing better for the last few years. The population has only fallen 0.7% in the last 2 years. (A lot of oil workers came from outside Aberdeen and drove or flew up to catch the chopper to their rig. Redundancies in oil have been hits to Aberdeen, but also other areas like Glasgow and Newcastle.)

So Aberdeen could be "unique" because people there can look at the rest of the UK and say "we'll get back to normal soon, like everyone else". Aberdonians have always thought Aberdeen lived in its own "economic bubble" tied to rises and falls in oil instead of the rest of the UK economy - Perhaps a crash everywhere would scare people much more. 

[regprentice]

On 20/02/2023 at 09:42, regprentice said:

Aberdeens a few years ahead of the rest of the UK. If you assume looking at Aberdeen gives us a view if the rest if the UK in 5 years or so then in 2025-2027 it will be a long slow decline, not a crash, and the following will be true...

 

FT editorial this morning says pretty much the same as i said on monday

What is worse than house prices crashing 20 per cent? How about them not crashing 20 per cent? With higher borrowing costs and inflation — and decades of tighter mortgage lending — the UK property market faces the prospect not of falling, but of freezing stiff. And that might be the “worst of all worlds”, according to a new report by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation. In this scenario, low unemployment leads to relatively few forced sales, meaning prices hardly budge but transactions stall, housebuilding stops and cash-rich investors swoop in to outbid those on lower incomes

[shortbread]

UK House Price Index: January 2023, Aberdeen fall picks up pace -4.4% YoY

The 'City of Aberdeen' average price of £136,742 for January 2023, is the LOWEST IN 17 YEARS!

In February 2007 the average prices in Aberdeen crossed £139k, thus losing 17 years of house price growth.

Quote

Average house prices in Scotland increased by 1.0% in the 12 months to January 2023. This was down from 5.1% in the 12 months to December 2022 and was slower than the average UK house price annual inflation of 6.3% in the 12 months to January 2023. Scotland’s annual house price inflation has generally been slowing since the recent peak of 13.8% in the 12 months to April 2022. 

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, average house prices in Scotland decreased by 0.5% between December 2022 and January 2023, compared with an increase of 3.4% during the same period 12 months ago. On a seasonally adjusted basis, average house prices in Scotland decreased by 1.3% between December 2022 and January 2023. The lowest annual percentage change was in City of Aberdeen, where average house prices decreased by 4.4% in the 12 months to January 2023 to £137,000.

Quote

Comparing the provisional volume estimate for November 2021 with the provisional volume estimate for November 2022, the volume of transactions decreased by 6.2% in Scotland and increased by 45.8% in the UK.

[Ignorantbliss]

This just came onto the market in Cults and the price is extraordinary, being well over £1000 more per m2 compared to other properties in the area.

[Ignorantbliss]

they really need to have an edit button, especially when trying to write comments via a phone...

Here is the house, now to see how quickly it sells...

https://www.aspc.co.uk/search/property/414920/Robinhill--Westerton-Road/Aberdeen/

[shortbread]

10 year house prices: City of Aberdeen has seen the worst return on investment in the UK, 15.29% fall

 

Quote

Lowest returns
The City of Aberdeen has seen the worst return on investment in the UK for property, being the only area to see a decrease in property prices over the past 10 years.

In 2013, the average house price in the City of Aberdeen was £161,429 but the average price has now decreased by 15.29% in the past 10 years, to £136,742 in 2023.

The UK area with the second lowest increase in house prices is Aberdeenshire (the surrounding area of the city). House prices in Aberdeenshire averaged £170,640 in 2013 and have risen to £200,806 as of this year. This means that there has been just a 17.68% rise in prices.

The London borough of Kensington and Chelsea has the third lowest increase in property prices in the last decade. There has been a 19.73% rise in house prices in the London area in the past decade. In 2013, the average house price in Kensington and Chelsea was £1,067,550 whereas in 2023, the average house price now stands at £1,278,200.

https://www.yourmortgage.co.uk/news/are-these-the-house-price-hotspots-of-the-last-10-years/

[Ignorantbliss]

https://news.stv.tv/north/plans-to-build-homes-on-15th-century-battlefield-in-wester-harlaw-inverurie-backed-by-councillors

Another example of how developer friendly councillors are in Aberdeenshire Council.

The council's own planners recommended refusal of development on the battlefield site (as did the local community council) but the local councillors overruled them.

Stuff local heritage seems to be their mantra and just build baby build - you do wonder what connection there is between the developer and the councillors...

[shortbread]

Aberdeen city house prices fall to 16+ year low!

The latest Land Registry house price index for March'23 shows the average Aberdeen city house price has fallen to £131k. The last time the prices were this low was Nov'06, hence more than 16 years of house price growth has now disappeared.

Even worse is the 34% fall from the peak prices (£199k) at the end of 2014!

[Roman Roady]

Just out of idle curiosity, what is this thread about?

I see it bumped every so often and its one of the oldest to enjoy such treatment, but I can never really work out what the subject matter is. Is it just prices in Aberdeen?

306 pages and counting????

[mynamehere]

It's about this, 

Goes to show how important job figures are. No crash without unemployment?

[regprentice]

33 minutes ago, Roman Roady said:

Just out of idle curiosity, what is this thread about?

I see it bumped every so often and its one of the oldest to enjoy such treatment, but I can never really work out what the subject matter is. Is it just prices in Aberdeen?

306 pages and counting????

pretty much  

There are a lot of local threads in the regional subs but this one was bumped to the main forum for a few reasons, but broadly its a window into how the UK as a whole might fare after a crash.

- Aberdeen "crashed" about 3-4 years ahead of the rest if the UK (assuming its coming soon). Prices have fallen 10% over the last 10 years while the rest of scotlands prices have risen 15%.

- They are still building new houses, converting offices to houses etc despite there already being too much capacity and the population falling 1% a year.

- Aberdeen is unusual in that almost every house sold and rented is listed in the Aberdeen Solicitors Property Centre (ASPC). it easy to compare houses listed this month vs last month and be very confident youre 99% accurate. theres a lot of volumes analysis in the thread. we counted up to new records several times, when will the ASPC hit 3000, for the first time, 4000, 5000 etc  

- At its peak it was one if the most expensive places in the UK, driven by oil. How far can it fall?  people like me who had to leave because they couldnt afford to live there take vicarious pleasure in reading about the crash  

If Aberdeen shows what a UK crash will look like then its a long slow grinding decrease of prices without a big crash but with no sign of stopping while the council, housebuilders and govt all say it'll be ok tomorrow and promote more expensive develoments - for most Aberdonians the penny still hasnt dropped. 

Edited April 20, 2023 by regprentice

[Roman Roady]

1 hour ago, regprentice said:

pretty much  

There are a lot of local threads in the regional subs but this one was bumped to the main forum for a few reasons, but broadly its a window into how the UK as a whole might fare after a crash.

- Aberdeen "crashed" about 3-4 years ahead of the rest if the UK (assuming its coming soon). Prices have fallen 10% over the last 10 years while the rest of scotlands prices have risen 15%.

- They are still building new houses, converting offices to houses etc despite there already being too much capacity and the population falling 1% a year.

- Aberdeen is unusual in that almost every house sold and rented is listed in the Aberdeen Solicitors Property Centre (ASPC). it easy to compare houses listed this month vs last month and be very confident youre 99% accurate. theres a lot of volumes analysis in the thread. we counted up to new records several times, when will the ASPC hit 3000, for the first time, 4000, 5000 etc  

- At its peak it was one if the most expensive places in the UK, driven by oil. How far can it fall?  people like me who had to leave because they couldnt afford to live there take vicarious pleasure in reading about the crash  

If Aberdeen shows what a UK crash will look like then its a long slow grinding decrease of prices without a big crash but with no sign of stopping while the council, housebuilders and govt all say it'll be ok tomorrow and promote more expensive develoments - for most Aberdonians the penny still hasnt dropped. 

Thanks 🙂

[shortbread]

UK House Price Index: February 2023, Aberdeen steep fall, -6.6% YoY

Quote

Average house prices in Scotland increased by 1.0% in the 12 months to February 2023. This remained unchanged from the 12 months to January 2023 and was slower than the average UK house price annual inflation of 5.5% in the 12 months to February 2023.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, average house prices in Scotland decreased by 2.6% between January 2023 and February 2023, compared with a decrease of 2.5% during the same period 12 months ago.

In February 2023, the most expensive area to purchase a property was City of Edinburgh, where the average cost was £320,000. In contrast, the cheapest area to purchase a property was Inverclyde, where the average cost was £115,000.

The highest annual percentage change was in Moray, where average house prices increased by 10.1% in the 12 months to February 2023 to £188,000. The lowest annual percentage change was in City of Aberdeen, where average house prices decreased by 6.6% in the 12 months to February 2023 to £132,000.

 

Quote

Comparing the provisional volume estimate for December 2021 with the provisional volume estimate for December 2022, the volume of transactions decreased by 12.2% in Scotland and increased by 30.5% in the UK.

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-house-price-index-for-february-2023/uk-house-price-index-scotland-february-2023

[Ignorantbliss]

How times change...

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-12456469/Aberdeen-affordable-city-home.html

Quote

 

Aberdeen has been ranked the cheapest city to own a home with the average cost of a mortgage, utilities and council tax being only 37 per cent of the median monthly salary.

According to a study by mortgage broker L&C Mortgages, the average house price in the Scottish city was £139,551 as of May 2023, meaning that a mortgage taken out with a 10 per cent deposit and repaid over 25 years at 4.5 per cent interest would cost a total of £209,349. 

This equates to a monthly mortgage payment of £698, rising to £988 when combined with utilities and council tax. This equals 37 percent of the median salary in the area which is £2,696. 

 

[regprentice]

11 hours ago, Ignorantbliss said:

How times change...

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-12456469/Aberdeen-affordable-city-home.html

Quite. Seems like a "stealth collapse" i wonder how many aberdonians truly understand those falls. Especially as they still see expensive new builds are going up in their 1000s and they are converting commercial space into flats as well. 

An initial look at aspc still shows some very frothily priced properties and i doubted the article but a bit of playing with the filters and there are definitely 1888 city properties for sale today and 948 are under 125k. (no option to search under 139k exactly) 

Possibly skewed a little by the number of granite 2.5 room bedsits in the city centre... but you can absolutely buy a 3 bed house in aberdeen for under 100k in an area i'd consider okay.

Back in 1992 i'd walk home from school down holburn street/hardgate and think "man i'll never be able to afford a £40k flat in this street".....well it looks like theyre £40k again! link . IIRC there used to be a baker under that flat where i'd buy a buttered rowie for 7p on my way to school. 

the comments on that article though.... absolutely dripping hate for an area many of those people have never even been to.

Edited August 30, 2023 by regprentice

[sandster]

I'd agree with the sentiment. I bought in 2009 right at the bottom of the last crash and there's a house just sold that was o/o 10% less than we paid then. Another just gone up for sale at 15% less. 

Then you look at Countesswells and Craibstone and wonder where people are coming from or how much trouble the builders are in if everyone went part exchange to move out there.

[Oily]

Spot on Reg. Property prices have effectively halved in real terms over the past 10 years. The decline in the oil industry ramps on as exploration and production fall, although I never anticipated the demonisation of the industry as it's sacrificed by the climate change zealots. A few years ago at the time of the independence referendum much of the SNP case was based on the tax revenues from the industry they now wish to close down.

There are other factors..... supply of new builds continues to grow as builders are keen to capitalise on their land-banks. To maintain the headline prices of their new builds they offer unrealistic trade-in prices for the older properties then dump them at massive discounts.

 

Sky high energy prices also mean older granite buildings are unattractive vs modern insulated properties. The fabric of many older granite buildings is in poor condition and there doesn't seem to be the will or resources to maintain them. Trees grow out of chimney stacks and >100 year old roofs are desperate for renewal.

Aberdeen will become increasingly attractive to low income incomers as it will be seen as a low cost housing area. And we are nowhere near the bottom of the decline yet.

Who saw this crash coming to Aberdeen? Well many of us on this thread did as it was inevitable .... nothing was ever going to replace the high employment, high earnings of the oil industry...not even a Trump golf course and a few cruise ships.  Those of us who predicted this outcome were roundly criticised by those afflicted by the modern disease of blind positive 'thinking'.