Aberdeen, Aspc Stats

[shortbread]

23 hours ago, stingray192 said:

I have lived between Belfast and Aberdeen for the past 20 years, I have never worked in oil, always in the motortrade, Aberdeen is definitely not busy, in the past when someone bought a car in Aberdeen they put in every available extra without a thought, virtually always on finance or personal lease. the car salesmen of Aberdeen earned as much as oil workers,  nowadays they still buy a fairly decent car but with no extras, a lot of oil workers were previously buying a range rover at £60K and spending 20-30K more on extras, now they go the basic, I currently earn my living buying second hand cars cheap in Aberdeen and reselling in Belfast. I deal with a lot of dealers and no one is earning decent money anymore

Have a mate in the trade who mentioned the same thing. He's now got a security license and works as a part time guard to supplement his income.

[shortbread]

National Records of Scotland: Aberdeen population falling

Quote

On 30 June 2017, the population of Aberdeen City was 228,800. This is a decrease of 0.5% from 229,840 in 2016. Over the same period, the population of Scotland increased by 0.4%.

Aberdeen City

2015    230,350    
2016    229,840    
2017    228,800

Quote

The population of the north-east fell last year after more than 20,000 people moved away and far fewer arrived to make the region their home.

Statistics from the National Records of Scotland (NRS) show that 12,750 people quit Aberdeen between mid-2016 and mid-2017, but only 11,334 people moved to the city.

It left a negative net migration level of -1,416 – by far the largest in Scotland – and meant that Aberdeen’s total population fell by 1,040 to 228,800, despite births outstripping deaths.

https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/stats-at-a-glance/council-area-profiles

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/aberdeen/1532644/thousands-of-people-moved-away-from-the-north-east-last-year/

[quine]

54 minutes ago, ABZ_RVK said:

They are still on sale. 

https://www.aspc.co.uk/search/property/368563/36-Woodstock-Road/Aberdeen/

Last purchased price 366K and on sale for price over 487K - it was on sale for 500K they have just reduced the price to 487K. 

Agree, its difficult to comment until we know the actual sale price, but it still seems like a good ROI. 

He's spent a lot of money building extensions and garages and re-jigging the house...have a look at the home report. 

Extension to facilitate new living area incorporating, kitchen, dining area, step down living area. The addition of ensuites

to new upstairs bedroom’s. Full planning permission & bulding warrant in respect of work carried out. Also, construction

of double garage/office, under same planning consent. New roof on extension. Existing roof checked and re-slated where required. New slated roof on double garage. (2011)   Replacement windows, bifold doors.  New central heating system installed.  Bet all that would have cost about £150

-200k (plus a lot of aggro).  Whatever he (eventually) sells for, it's a loss.

[ABZ_RVK]

55 minutes ago, quinesaid:

He's spent a lot of money building extensions and garages and re-jigging the house...have a look at the home report. 

Ah ok. I dint realize that. 

[shortbread]

Further job cuts at Aker.....

Quote

It is not clear exactly how many roles will be affected but it is understood up to 40 UK management jobs could be cut as a result.

A spokesman for Aker Solutions said: “Due to this restructure there are some changes to the departmental management and support teams in the UK.”

https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/jobs-understood-to-be-at-risk-amid-restructuring-at-aker-solutions/

 

Also hearing rumours that Baker might come under the JWG umbrella, anyone else heard any such thing?!

[cashinmattress]

17 hours ago, shortbread said:

Further job cuts at Aker.....

https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/jobs-understood-to-be-at-risk-amid-restructuring-at-aker-solutions/

 

Also hearing rumours that Baker might come under the JWG umbrella, anyone else heard any such thing?!

I think all UK based EPC's are heading for trouble with a hard Brexit.... and of course everybody else in the game. Feck knows how folk are going to handle the additional paperwork/administration and not subject clients to escalations. That applies to anybody in any business for that matter.

UK.gov better get the lead out.

[Ignorantbliss]

23 hours ago, shortbread said:

Also hearing rumours that Baker might come under the JWG umbrella, anyone else heard any such thing?!

I presume you mean John Wood Group by JWG?

If so, no chance of Baker Hughes (BHGE) being taken over by them - the reverse though not a impossibility as the weak £ makes UK companies easier takeover targets for competitors in the likes of the USA.

Baker Hughes is much more diversified and much bigger - JWG had 2017 revenue of c. $5.4 billion compared to $21.92 billion for Baker.  Plus it's a American company and Trump et al are not keen on foreign takeovers.

What's interesting is that JWG have around 55k employees - in contrast the much larger (by revenue) BHGE have a slightly larger worldwide workforce of c.64K employees.  On that metric alone, BHGE looks much more efficient.

With it merging with all the GE Oil&Gas assets, Baker Hughes it is probably more diversified these days than the likes of SLB and HAL and a lot of the smaller oil companies these days like to get all their services from a single entity which works in BHI's favour.  Advantages and disadvantages of the one-stop shop approach but that is another story.

[CGS]

Interesting reads below .....

Oil rally fuels surge in demand for Aberdeen offices

Savills director Dan Smith noted that following three years of retrenchment in the industry many Aberdeen oil and gas firms are eyeing expansion. This reflects the widespread expectation the crude price will remain at levels at which firms can make plenty of money.

“We have been through a pretty torrid time over the last few years with the downturn in the oil and gas industry which buoys the Aberdeen market. Most of the companies in that sector were going through rationalisation” said Mr Smith.

“Now we’re in a position where most of those companies are talking about upscaling and recruitment as opposed to downsizing and redundancies.”

http://www.heraldscotland.com/business_hq/16395278.oil-rally-fuels-surge-in-demand-for-aberdeen-offices/

 

-----------------------

Aberdeen ONE - clearly aligned with the forthcoming appeal of the AWPR ??

And further proof of a demand for Retail Distribution to feed local consumers ( not such good news for Union Street though - a trend that's being played out across the UK )

http://www.aberdeenone.com/holding/assets/img/aberdeenone_brochure.pdf

( This is the site of the old Total office after their Maersk Merger )

----------------------

All input valued as always....

[CGS]

Worth a read also ......

https://www.insider.co.uk/special-reports/aberdeen-renaissance-how-survived-being-12883817

And the Harbour Expansions updates.....

http://d80a69bd923ff4dc0677-b849429a75dd6216be63404a232a877c.r8.cf3.rackcdn.com/AHEP_Quarterly_Newsletter_Issue_4.pdf

Chester Hotel expanding....

https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/hotel-bidding-to-use-the-hamilton-school-site-for-major-expansion1/

“We have confidence in the market in Aberdeen and remain positive that our business will continue to grow.“This major investment cements our position as one of the city’s – and Scotland’s – leading independent hotels.”

[shortbread]

ASPC pips 6200!

[shortbread]

Interesting read..... more than 14 million barrels of unsold oil in ships!

Quote

Red alert - North Sea oil market sounds alarm on oversupply

The North Sea physical oil market is letting off a distress signal - crude is once again being stored on ships – as production increases from major exporters threaten a fragile balance between global supply and demand.

Reuters data shows nearly 7 million barrels of North Sea crude held on ships that have been static for at least two weeks, unable to find immediate buyers, up from virtually nothing a few weeks ago.

“Over the past two weeks, North Sea floating storage has trended higher, reversing a pattern of decline in place through much of July,” Reid L’Anson, an analyst for energy analytics firm Kpler, said in a note.

ccording to Reuters data, over the last 20 years, August is one of the seasonally strongest months for North Sea crude prices.

Yet prices for Forties crude - the largest of the North Sea streams - have fallen to their lowest in a month, after a raft of offers for cargoes held on ships, one of the most expensive storage options.

A slowdown in demand from Asia’s big refiners has dented the Atlantic Basin crude market, just as some of the world’s largest suppliers such as Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United States are bumping up production.

But the impact has been most severe in the North Sea. Not only have the likes of Forties and light, sweet grades such as Ekofisk had to deal with a drop in Chinese refinery demand, they have also faced competition on their doorstep from a record influx of U.S. shale oil.

Shipments of West African crude to the likes of China, India and Japan reached a 2018 high of 2.44 million barrels per day in July, nearly a quarter more than the same month last year.

By contrast, exports of North Sea crude to Asia collapsed by 40 percent year-on-year in the same month to around 1.46 million bpd, which contributed to a drop of 17 percent in overall global loadings, according to Reuters shipping data.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-oil-nsea-supply/red-alert-north-sea-oil-market-sounds-alarm-on-oversupply-idUKKBN1KT1TB

Edited August 13, 2018 by shortbread

[CGS]

Some more positivity for the UKCS

https://www.scotsman.com/business/companies/energy/shell-plans-50-more-years-in-the-north-sea-as-energy-sector-looks-to-the-future-1-4783771

Tie-Backs to dominate North Sea Projects to 2023

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/179102/tie-backs-to-dominate-north-sea-projects-to-2023/

Analysts GlobalData estimate that of the 63 oil and gas fields being brought to production in that period in the UK, Denmark, Norway and the Netherlands, 34 will be subsea tie-backs.

The Gulf of Mexico has a higher rate of tie-backs at 23 out of 30 until 2023.

From total estimated spending of £53.9billion on North Sea projects, almost £11billion will be spent on tie-backs.

GlobalData estimates the trend could be due to fewer large discoveries in the region.

By 2023, GlobalData said that planned and announced fields in the North Sea are expected to contribute 1.6million barrels of oil equivalent per day, with 500,000 barrels expected to come from tie-back projects.

 

[shortbread]

HM Land Registry: House Price Index Scotland: June 2018

Aberdeen fall continues......

Quote

Scotland house prices grew by 4.8% in the year to June 2018, down from 5.0% in the year to May 2018. Scotland house prices are growing quicker than the UK annual rate of 3.0% in the year to June 2018. 

The UK Property Transaction Statistics for June 2018 showed that on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, in quarter 2 2018, the number of transactions on residential properties with a value of £40,000 or greater in Scotland was 24,970. This is down 9.7% compared with quarter 2 2017.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-house-price-index-scotland-june-2018/uk-house-price-index-scotland-june-2018

Edited August 15, 2018 by shortbread

[shortbread]

Just did a 4 year comparison. Imagine that the average price difference between Aberdeen and Glasgow has come down from £80k to £29k, Stunning!

[CGS]

Thanks for the stats Shortbread. A heady fall indeed and likely a welcome correction for many people looking to move up the ladder.

It will be really interesting to see how the AWPR affects things. I can see some churn and flux but cannot really see it "boosting" the market....

https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/aberdeen-bypass-could-boost-north-east-housing-market/

If I were buying a house at present I think the AWPR would be creating a lot more parameters to think about.

School catchments won't change much of course ...

[shortbread]

13 hours ago, CGS said:

Thanks for the stats Shortbread. A heady fall indeed and likely a welcome correction for many people looking to move up the ladder.

It will be really interesting to see how the AWPR affects things. I can see some churn and flux but cannot really see it "boosting" the market...

If I were buying a house at present I think the AWPR would be creating a lot more parameters to think about.

School catchments won't change much of course ...

I agree, especially people working in the Westhill, Brindge of Don, Dyce industrial corridors can now cast a wider net when looking for permanent residence.  It might also encourage people to move out of the city centre looking for newer larger developments propping up in the outskirts.

Albeit might be a gradual shift, wait and watch I suppose.

Another interesting development will be the fate of thousands of really old empty flats, buildings and houses that are dotted in and around the city centre. If folk do move out of the centre, what happens to these properties?

[jimmy2x3]

look at they sales volumes, thats the telling factor.

 

1. no-one new is buying a house, most of they transactions will be chains and btl. but no new buyers. 

2. this is extremely bad for money velocity, which is very bad for tax reciepts and general buisiness. 

 

its pretty much like "ok youve won well done" now we need to reset or its game over. because if a city with 500,000 people (edinburgh) is only seeing 8000 properties (commercial, private, land) changing hands a year we are in very big trouble. 

[ccc]

8 minutes ago, jimmy2x3 said:

look at they sales volumes, thats the telling factor.

 

1. no-one new is buying a house, most of they transactions will be chains and btl. but no new buyers. 

2. this is extremely bad for money velocity, which is very bad for tax reciepts and general buisiness. 

 

its pretty much like "ok youve won well done" now we need to reset or its game over. because if a city with 500,000 people (edinburgh) is only seeing 8000 properties (commercial, private, land) changing hands a year we are in very big trouble. 

Yes the Edinburgh numbers are eye opening. Bubble tastic around here - Much due to the bottom end Air BnB feeding frenzy that's about to blow up IMO.

Prices up 10% and same period sales down 20%. That's going to end well.

[cashinmattress]

6 hours ago, shortbread said:

people working

Therein lies the problem with the basin in terminal decline. 

[shackleford]

7 hours ago, shortbread said:

 

Another interesting development will be the fate of thousands of really old empty flats, buildings and houses that are dotted in and around the city centre. If folk do move out of the centre, what happens to these properties?

Funnily enough, I was browsing through the new properties on ASPC (still creeping up, 6228....) and I spotted a flat at 45k FP.  Valued at 70k in the HR.  Ouch.  I can see the council having real problems with old tenements drifting even further into disrepair.  Unfortunately the nature of private ownership means it's really difficult to get a whole street or block emptied so you can knock it all down.  

[Diver Dan]

1 hour ago, shackleford said:

Funnily enough, I was browsing through the new properties on ASPC (still creeping up, 6228....) and I spotted a flat at 45k FP.  Valued at 70k in the HR.  Ouch.  I can see the council having real problems with old tenements drifting even further into disrepair.  Unfortunately the nature of private ownership means it's really difficult to get a whole street or block emptied so you can knock it all down.  

Quite a lot of stuff on Hardgate ought to be demolished and plenty of really grotty places either side of King Street too.

The number of buildings with easily fixable stuff such as shrubs growing out of the chimney pots and broken drainpipes spraying rainwater directly into the pointing in this town is absolutely shocking.

[ccc]

3 hours ago, Diver Dan said:

Quite a lot of stuff on Hardgate ought to be demolished and plenty of really grotty places either side of King Street too.

The number of buildings with easily fixable stuff such as shrubs growing out of the chimney pots and broken drainpipes spraying rainwater directly into the pointing in this town is absolutely shocking.

Edinburgh exactly the same. The issues growing are absolutely huge imo. Very few serious repairs are being done. 

How does it work in Aberdeen ? 

Edinburgh used to have a good system where the council - for a mark up - took on all this stuff then chased each individual owner for payments. 

Was cancelled maybe 8 years ago due to them finding out brown envelopes had been flying around for builders to get trumped up fees. 

Since then it's been up to maybe 12 individual owners to agree and pay together in due course. Just isn't happening for most needing repairs. The problems are not going to fix themselves. They will only get worse. 

[shortbread]

16 hours ago, shackleford said:

Funnily enough, I was browsing through the new properties on ASPC (still creeping up, 6228....) and I spotted a flat at 45k FP.  Valued at 70k in the HR.  Ouch.  I can see the council having real problems with old tenements drifting even further into disrepair.  Unfortunately the nature of private ownership means it's really difficult to get a whole street or block emptied so you can knock it all down.  

 

15 hours ago, Diver Dan said:

Quite a lot of stuff on Hardgate ought to be demolished and plenty of really grotty places either side of King Street too.

The number of buildings with easily fixable stuff such as shrubs growing out of the chimney pots and broken drainpipes spraying rainwater directly into the pointing in this town is absolutely shocking.

How can this be resolved?

It's likely the AWPR will see people moving out of the city to larger residences in the outskirts, further compounding the problem. This is just my theory and do not have any empirical evidence for the same. To top this the population falling by a 1000 people every year means another 200 odd empty houses added to the burgeoning stock!

Already, on ASPC there are more than a thousand 1&2 bed properties priced under £125k in the city centre alone, that are looking for buyers! Nearly all of them are old granite tenements, mostly owned by BTL Landlords looking to get rid of their portfolio! These guys are not going to waste resources fixing/dressing these empty houses up knowing fully well that 'if' anyone does turn up to put in an offer, it will be well below asking.

Ideally they need to be knocked down, owners refunded, empty buildings turned into green acreage etc....But the reality is these will just sit there. The city centre is in desperate need of a boost of some sort. Wonder if the council regret calling off the Union Terrace Gardens project in 2010?

[shortbread]

2000 new council houses coming up!

Quote

Aberdeen City Council has committed to proceed with a programme of 2,000 new Council homes across the city.

The first project comprises 369 flatted apartments, comprising a mix of 1, 2 and 3 bedroom properties in 2 to 4 storey blocks on an existing brownfield inner city site.

A construction works contract will be placed using the Procurement Hub’s Development Contractors Dynamic Purchasing System (DPS).

Companies interested in tendering for this project should register with the DPS (unless already registered), express their interest in the opportunity and then complete and submit a short questionnaire on or before Friday 31st August 2018.

http://www.scottishconstructionnow.com/28257/tender-major-housing-construction-opportunity-in-aberdeen/#

[Diver Dan]

On 05/07/2018 at 11:19, Diver Dan said:

Latest Rightmove figures are out

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detail.html?country=scotland&locationIdentifier=REGION^4&searchLocation=Aberdeen

345 sold in May but none in April. Obviously some sort of mistake but it does increase my doubts about the cromulence of Rightmove as a statistical source.

 6112 for sale on ASPC and 784 for rent and 1409 for rent on Citylets at this moment in time.

Various Q2 reports should start appearing fairly soon too.

Rightmove sales for June are out now

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detail.html?country=scotland&locationIdentifier=REGION^4&searchLocation=Aberdeen

345 sales, the same as last month.

ASPC sitting at 6219 for sale right now and 774 to rent.

Citylets has 1392 to rent.

Citylets has fixed the funny bug that prevented you from searching directly for AB15. You could previously see places there by searching for Aberdeen but couldn't filter that particular postcode. None of the other postcodes were affected.