General Media Sentiment

[Guest Shedfish]

Bearish sentiment in the media seems to be growing at quite a pace, and yet my perception is that sentiment on the HPC forum if anything is heading the opposite direction. of course i could be wrong - not the first time

i was wondering what everyone else thought!

i'm still a bear. my bearishness grows. i can smell salmon... that's where i am at least. my feeling is that there is something like the beginnings of a crash going on as we speak, and the figures are being held up with string and snot (e.g. parts of London booming, Northern Ireland maybe).

i know the poll is a bit messy... i could have done with one more question.

[worzel]

I definately think we are approaching the top. It might take a while until people actually realise it, and we can expect the media to make out like there's nothing in the making.

[frugalstar]

I was thinking the other day that I am sure Channel 4 have less property shows on now, maybe some repeats. Channel 4 seems far more in touch with the people on the ground, and seems to lead the way over other TV channels. Where Channel 4 created property porn, BBC followed. The BBC still has property shows on in the morning, are they behind again? Have channel 4 noted the change in sentiment???

BTW anecdote I was in a massive DFS and Harveys this afternoon and I was the only customer in there. Great discounts as well. Has everyone run out of money?

[Guest grumpy-old-man]

Bearish sentiment in the media seems to be growing at quite a pace, and yet my perception is that sentiment on the HPC forum if anything is heading the opposite direction. of course i could be wrong - not the first time

i was wondering what everyone else thought!

i'm still a bear. my bearishness grows. i can smell salmon... that's where i am at least. my feeling is that there is something like the beginnings of a crash going on as we speak, and the figures are being held up with string and snot (e.g. parts of London booming, Northern Ireland maybe).

i know the poll is a bit messy... i could have done with one more question.

hello shedfish

I think we are just past the top & actually in the crash right now but not many are seeing it

always 6 months behind USA so I keep getting told, well they are in a huge crash right now & headed for a recession...........

[Guest Shedfish]

I definately think we are approaching the top. It might take a while until people actually realise it, and we can expect the media to make out like there's nothing in the making.

..and they're saying the same things as they did before the last crash too. damn, can someone help me with that link, 'what the papers were saying'? i know that in itself isn't proof, but the headlines are uncannily similar

I was thinking the other day that I am sure Channel 4 have less property shows on now, maybe some repeats. Channel 4 seems far more in touch with the people on the ground, and seems to lead the way over other TV channels. Where Channel 4 created property porn, BBC followed. The BBC still has property shows on in the morning, are they behind again? Have channel 4 noted the change in sentiment???

BTW anecdote I was in a massive DFS and Harveys this afternoon and I was the only customer in there. Great discounts as well. Has everyone run out of money?

yeh, i've noticed some stores seem strangely empty, at times of day they should be busy. amazed by the number of commercial properties up for sale / empty too.

this RetailBulletin article seems to confirm to some degree

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...st&p=463300

though it could be a front

RB = RetailBulletin = Realist Bear

hello shedfish

I think we are just past the top & actually in the crash right now but not many are seeing it

always 6 months behind USA so I keep getting told, well they are in a huge crash right now & headed for a recession...........

me too! just past the top. the graphs for my neck of the woods suggest buying shares in red ink.

now who'd a thought all that stuff i forgot about diazo compounds might come in handy one day..

where you been GOM? off buying a house on the sly?

[PropertyGuru]

You are, of course, correct, Shedfish.

The idea that the UK, out of all the nations of the world, is somehow 'immune' to a crash (when the rest of ther world has already started!) is childish in the extreme.

[right_freds_dead]

i am still bearish but fed up too. my resistace may collapse at anytime.

[Cornwall Sceptic]

i am still bearish but fed up too. my resistace may collapse at anytime.

Understandable position - no-one can wait forever

CS

[Guest Bart of Darkness]

What the papers said last time.

PS. Good poll Shedfish.

Edited October 6, 2006 by Bart of Darkness

[dessie123]

What the papers said last time.

PS. Good poll Shedfish.

Still convinced that most regional markets reached the top sometime in 2004. However, after a time consuming amount of research I have become substantially less bearish and losing faith in the concept of a US style 'crash'. I am pretty sure now nominal prices will only fall with some grossly overpriced new builds (evidence already exists). The vast majority of quality housing may just stagnate for a few years. I think, hand on heart, most people would agree this is the most likely outcome and may indeed be good enough for many!!

[Guest Shedfish]

What the papers said last time.

ah, there's the puppy. cheers Bart!

Still convinced that most regional markets reached the top sometime in 2004. However, after a time consuming amount of research I have become substantially less bearish and losing faith in the concept of a US style 'crash'. I am pretty sure now nominal prices will only fall with some grossly overpriced new builds (evidence already exists). The vast majority of quality housing may just stagnate for a few years. I think, hand on heart, most people would agree this is the most likely outcome and may indeed be good enough for many!!

i agree we probably won't have a US style crash due to the veil of secrecy around the real figures here, compared with the complete transparency in the US, but with overseas markets falling (with the knock-on economic effect), and the new build and 'executive flat' market tanking here, i can't see how the rest of the UK market would remain immune. it might take a long time to unwind though, compared with US (which is unwinding in the time it takes to fit a kitchen)

definitely there was a top 2004-ish, then an IR cut, then another top of sorts, which i think we've passed.

[Ethel]

I was thinking the other day that I am sure Channel 4 have less property shows on now, maybe some repeats. Channel 4 seems far more in touch with the people on the ground, and seems to lead the way over other TV channels. Where Channel 4 created property porn, BBC followed. The BBC still has property shows on in the morning, are they behind again? Have channel 4 noted the change in sentiment???

BTW anecdote I was in a massive DFS and Harveys this afternoon and I was the only customer in there. Great discounts as well. Has everyone run out of money?

Maybe because a whole generation are being forced to rent means that these programs hold no interest anymore?

[squire]

Bearish sentiment in the media seems to be growing at quite a pace, and yet my perception is that sentiment on the HPC forum if anything is heading the opposite direction. of course i could be wrong - not the first time

i was wondering what everyone else thought!

i'm still a bear. my bearishness grows. i can smell salmon... that's where i am at least. my feeling is that there is something like the beginnings of a crash going on as we speak, and the figures are being held up with string and snot (e.g. parts of London booming, Northern Ireland maybe).

i know the poll is a bit messy... i could have done with one more question.

I just read on UTV teletext that First Time Buyers in Northern Ireland has dropped by 25% from June to July! Maybe things are changing. I mentioned this in another thread by may be useful to note here.

And here's a link: http://firstrung.co.uk/articles.asp?pageid...&cat=47-0-0

Edited October 7, 2006 by squire

[RussellF]

i am still bearish but fed up too. my resistace may collapse at anytime.

Still keeping the faith, reading 4 days worth of HPC during a mind numbing quiet shift yesterday bolstered that. The missus is getting fed up though. I'm not allowed to say crash anymore She's also looking at (and desiring) more expensive houses Any chance of a 60% drop?

[Immigrant]

..and they're saying the same things as they did before the last crash too. damn, can someone help me with that link, 'what the papers were saying'? i know that in itself isn't proof, but the headlines are uncannily similar

Yes, but they were uncannily similar 2 years ago and we didn't have a crash. Which surprised me because I was expecting a crash based on the similarities with last time.

It is different this time - we may yet have a crash but I've stopped expecting one just because we had one last time. There are many differences.

[Realistbear]

Yes, but they were uncannily similar 2 years ago and we didn't have a crash. Which surprised me because I was expecting a crash based on the similarities with last time.

It is different this time - we may yet have a crash but I've stopped expecting one just because we had one last time. There are many differences.

You are right , there are many differences:

1. The multiples are almost twice as high as in Great Crash I

2. The level of debt is higher

3. The level of mortgage default is occuring much earlier in the down cycle

4. The Bubble is a worldwide phenomena

5. Lending standars are much lower

6. IO mortgages are far more prolific

7. BTL yields have never been lower

All in all, it all makes for one helluva Great Crash 2.

[Immigrant]

You are right , there are many differences:

1. The multiples are almost twice as high as in Great Crash I

2. The level of debt is higher

3. The level of mortgage default is occuring much earlier in the down cycle

4. The Bubble is a worldwide phenomena

5. Lending standars are much lower

6. IO mortgages are far more prolific

7. BTL yields have never been lower

All in all, it all makes for one helluva Great Crash 2.

You may well be right, but there are other differences as well:

Much lower interest rates.

Loss of faith in pensions.

BTL is much more wide-spread.

ASTs (changes to tenancy laws, making BTL more attractive).

Increased rates of immigration.

[Guest Alright Jack]

The media are excessively bearish - this is by design, the central banks have caused the necessary deflationary red herring scare to provide the cover needed to end the rate raising. They will be cutting rates by early next year - the US probably before the year is out.

Think about it, who doesn't 'know' that the US housing market is 'crashing'???

NO ONE!

That's a bottom in any market.

Wakey wakey.

[Guest Shedfish]

The media are excessively bearish - this is by design, the central banks have caused the necessary deflationary red herring scare to provide the cover needed to end the rate raising. They will be cutting rates by early next year - the US probably before the year is out.

Think about it, who doesn't 'know' that the US housing market is 'crashing'???

NO ONE!

That's a bottom in any market.

Wakey wakey.

the UK market bottomed? weird looking bottom

[redwing]

I leafed through the Mail on Sunday this evening at my local watering hole.

Amazed about just how bearish it was.

A long article about being sensible with your mortgage - not extending the loan period, making overpayments etc.

The article about the problems a couple faced buying in Florida - see news blog on front page.

Reporting of the fall in credit card borrowing.

How banks are getting more sophisticated in judging credit card risks and their introduction of 'risk-based pricing', i.e. charging a higher interest rate to customers who are getting into payment difficulties.

Or perhaps I just read everything through BearGoggles?!

[get real]

I have been a stalwart bear and maintain my position despite all the frustration and dissappointment at the housing market continuing to defy gravity.

I believe that the peak [the last point at which a buyer could expect to make gains on their house purchase] was the summer of 2004. Since then, many who have bought have not yet attempted to sell. Many have not even tried to sell in order to move, they have simply funded a second property from the equity available to them in their existing home(s).

The reality has not set in yet. When sellers "need" or "have" to realise their assets, when the collateral available to them in the form of equity (collateral that is commonly mistaken for wealth) has to be turned into actual cash, they are going to be in for a shock.