Hpc & Media Hype

[Bagehot]

I was the uber bear with my friends. I can now see how wrogn I was. Ive asked myself why I beleived in a HPC. I think the main reason was that I beleived the hyperbole filled media on a HPC for the past few years. Ive started reading David Smith in the Sunday Times a lot more and have come to the conclusion that while there may be marginal falls we are not going to suffer sustained prices falls.

I think the world and the country has and is changing. WHich is to say it wasnt a bubble but a structural change in the housing market. I dare say I will be shot down for this post.

[pelican]

I think its easy to think that a structural change has occured in Britain to cause prices to double or triple in last few years, but if this is the case can you say why in every country without high unemployment levels but with low interest rates has this occured.

I think it just because rates were low for so long and now as the globalisation effect unwinds this will be reversed as inflation and hence rates increase.

Sometimes the easiest explantion is correct. I.e. world rates went down - prices went up.

There was no worldwide structural change to housing demand causing prices to rise so much.

[CrashDive]

Ive started reading David Smith in the Sunday Times a lot more and have come to the conclusion that while there may be marginal falls we are not going to suffer sustained prices falls.

I've been reading Mr Smith along with a multitude of others for donkey years, there will still be a HPC, whatever the Times guru writes.

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

David Smith isn't exactly the sharpest tool in the box

[Fancypants]

When...

not if.

[geneer]

I was the uber bear with my friends. I can now see how wrogn I was. Ive asked myself why I beleived in a HPC. I think the main reason was that I beleived the hyperbole filled media on a HPC for the past few years. Ive started reading David Smith in the Sunday Times a lot more and have come to the conclusion that while there may be marginal falls we are not going to suffer sustained prices falls.

I think the world and the country has and is changing. WHich is to say it wasnt a bubble but a structural change in the housing market. I dare say I will be shot down for this post.

Sigh. Another born again Bull.

[debtfree]

I found this on a New World Order site and this is what some guy had to say:

PRIVATELY OWNED HOMES — "A THING OF THE PAST"

Privately owned housing would become a thing of the past. The cost of housing and financing housing would gradually be made so high that most people couldn't afford it. People who already owned their houses would be allowed to keep them but as years go by it would be more and more difficult for young people to buy a house. Young people would more and more become renters, particularly in apartments or condominiums. More and more unsold houses would stand vacant. People just couldn't buy them. But the cost of housing would not come down.

You'd right away think, well the vacant house, the price would come down, the people would buy it. But there was some statement to the effect that the price would be held high even though there were many available so that free market places would not operate. People would not be able to buy these and gradually more and more of the population would be forced into small apartments… small apartments which would not accommodate very many children. Then as the number of real home-owners diminished they would become a minority.

There would be no sympathy for them from the majority who dwelled in the apartments and then these homes could be taken by increased taxes or other regulations that would be detrimental to home ownership and would be acceptable to the majority. Ultimately, people would be assigned where they would live and it would be common to have non-family members living with you. This by way of your not knowing just how far you could trust anybody. This would all be under the control of a central housing authority. Have this in mind in 1990 when they ask, "How many bedrooms in your house? How many bathrooms in your house? Do you have a finished game room?".

It wouldnt suprise me in the least.

Off Topic but still spot on were other subjects such as:

"MUSIC WILL GET WORSE"

"ALCOHOL ABUSE" - just look at the amount of p1ss heads there are on our streets

"PLANNING THE CONTROL OVER MEDICINE " - bird flu, aids, viagra,

"ENCOURAGING HOMOSEXUALITY. SEX, ANYTHING GOES " - compare 15 years ago to now

"FAMILIES TO DIMINISH IN IMPORTANCE " - flats and more flats, no garden, what happened to the dining room ?

http://home.iae.nl/users/lightnet/world/aw...barbarians1.htm

http://home.iae.nl/users/lightnet/world/aw...barbarians2.htm

If you think about it and look around how things have changed in the last few years, it doesn't sound that crazy at all !!

It sounds like Nu Labour !!!!

[Bagehot]

I think we are going to have low interest rates and inflation for quite a while. The China effect has many years left in it. 90% of the Chinese are still living in the rural economy.

[North London Rent Girl]

"hyperbole filled media on a HPC"

someone's avin a larf!

[doog]

I was the uber bear with my friends. I can now see how wrogn I was. Ive asked myself why I beleived in a HPC. I think the main reason was that I beleived the hyperbole filled media on a HPC for the past few years. Ive started reading David Smith in the Sunday Times a lot more and have come to the conclusion that while there may be marginal falls we are not going to suffer sustained prices falls.

I think the world and the country has and is changing. WHich is to say it wasnt a bubble but a structural change in the housing market. I dare say I will be shot down for this post.

Your conversion is purely personal. I am more interested in facts. What is the structural change that you are talking about? Please elaborate

[PropertyGuru]

I think Baggins was being sarcastic...

[Badlad1967]

I was the uber bear with my friends. I can now see how wrogn I was. Ive asked myself why I beleived in a HPC. I think the main reason was that I beleived the hyperbole filled media on a HPC for the past few years. Ive started reading David Smith in the Sunday Times a lot more and have come to the conclusion that while there may be marginal falls we are not going to suffer sustained prices falls.

I think the world and the country has and is changing. WHich is to say it wasnt a bubble but a structural change in the housing market. I dare say I will be shot down for this post.

Heard all this somewhere before?

Just make up your mind already!

Really! Some people

[shermanator]

Sigh. Another born again Bull.

Another one time bear turning bull. Excellent - that characterises all bubbles and should be met with glee by us HPCers. Can more folks throw in the towel please

David Smith? Like most of The Times hacks now, a Nu Labour cheerleader. I much prefer reading Jeff Randell in the Telegraph.

Fred Harrison is worth 100 of these lick spittle analysts. He said in 2004 that there would be a 2-3 year 'winner's curse' and he's been proved right. According to him these things run on 18 year cycles and we're in the latter stages of 1988 for comparison - I agree.

[PropertyGuru]

having read Baggines post linked above, no further comment is necessary.

[sun n sea]

I think we are going to have low interest rates and inflation for quite a while. The China effect has many years left in it. 90% of the Chinese are still living in the rural economy.

We buy stuff from China so it's cheaper in the shops for us. This is a finite approach- either we send all our money to China and can't buy anymore or the Chinese people decide they'd like some modern luxuries and Chinese factories switch to domestic production- they do have rather a lot of potential customers.

If anything I believe we've had the best out of the China manufacturing system- they were starting from scratch so very cheap prices stimulated their industries. Now they have got their manufacturing base up and running it makes no sense for them to keep making stuff at giveaway prices- they are in a position of strength and they know it- in business this means one thing- prices go up- why make £100 profit when you could easily make £200.

[Bagehot]

sun n sea - because they have a vast pool of labour who are abandoning the land and urbanising seeking the better life in the cities . but their wages wotn race away because there are millions of the buggers.

This Govt is opened the doors to some highly able Eastern Europeans. Some of them will rent, some will want to buy - just as the Jews, the Indians, Pakistanis etc did.

I do beleive we are now living in the 3rd economic global revoultion

[grey shark]

I was the uber bear with my friends. I can now see how wrogn I was. Ive asked myself why I beleived in a HPC. I think the main reason was that I beleived the hyperbole filled media on a HPC for the past few years. Ive started reading David Smith in the Sunday Times a lot more and have come to the conclusion that while there may be marginal falls we are not going to suffer sustained prices falls.

I think the world and the country has and is changing. WHich is to say it wasnt a bubble but a structural change in the housing market. I dare say I will be shot down for this post.

Your read a bearish article soon enough that will make you change your mind .............again .

Theres every chance your a fence sitter really

[sun n sea]

Bagehot- I take your point that there is a huge pool of labour. China will grow very rich from being the world's manufacturing centre of choice. This is exactly how Britain became rich and powerful- workshop of the world and all that.

Buying from the Chinese is an eye opener- they are very savvy business people and give excellent service. However I can only buy from them if I've got someone in the UK to sell to. If more business goes to China there's less left here- fewer businesses here mean fewer sales for me which means fewer goods bought from my Chinese suppliers and so on.

Unless the UK has a bottomless pit of money we will at some stage have to earn money from other countries to replace what we've sent to China- try as I might I can't think of anything made in Britain that other countries really want. When our piggy bank has been emptied into China's pocket where do we go next?

We do have highly skilled immigrants but we also have more unskilled imigrants who'll work for less. If immigrants work for less our wages will have to fall into line- if immigrants send all the money home what does UK PLC replace the outflow with?

The whole ethos of globalisation is that we're one huge marketplace- only problem is dear old blighties market stall is looking a bit threadbare and distinctly lacking in goods and services which other players in the world market might want to buy from us.

[Keith.G]

Another one time bear turning bull. Excellent - that characterises all bubbles and should be met with glee by us HPCers. Can more folks throw in the towel please

David Smith? Like most of The Times hacks now, a Nu Labour cheerleader. I much prefer reading Jeff Randell in the Telegraph.

Fred Harrison is worth 100 of these lick spittle analysts. He said in 2004 that there would be a 2-3 year 'winner's curse' and he's been proved right. According to him these things run on 18 year cycles and we're in the latter stages of 1988 for comparison - I agree.

Well people have to search for realism when they have been told for several years there would be a crash and prices continue to rise!! They would be stupid not to

I guess that many people have either sold or held off from buying on this type of advice only to see prices continuing to rise thus making that a bad decision

Do your views correlate with loads of property still flying off the shelf (see rightmove)?

Also, even if there is a correction another poster in the last few days explained that even in the previous crash there were some areas particularly parts of London where prices fell by maybe up to 10% then stayed about the same for a few years