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House Price Crash Forum


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About pelican

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  1. http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp?mid=11028303 Worth a read seems DS has been deleting a few embarassing lines.
  2. Quote from Smith April 2007 - Priceless There are two things one should bear in mind about the housing market. One is that mere mention of a slowdown brings the “crash” obsessives out in force, their latest ammunition being the problems in the American sub-prime market. That has as much relevance to Britain’s housing market as the baseball world series has to whether Chelsea or Manchester United will win the Premiership
  3. I don't crunch numbers for anything you would have sold. Although I did in the late nineties - working out all the losses on the missold pensions - You really covered yourselves in glory. Actuaries have nothing to do with the credit crunch, that was investment bank quants and credit modellers. Actuaries work primarily in life, general insurance and pensions. Keep selling those financial products - you are my hero.
  4. I'm in the pensions and investment field also -work in Glasgow. To the question above perhaps he bought gold and shares in 2004. Many people did you know. Anyway given I know a friend who was selling near Liverpool and all he did was reduce his price for the last two years till it eventually sold, I dont think Liverpool property rises have exactly been stratospheric since 2004. Try driving through Frodsham, nice town close to Liverpool, its a sea of for sale signs.
  5. Hi Zafonic Im an actuary also who do you work for and in which field?
  6. If LGPS contributions by the councils increase, council taxes do have to increase unless central government money to Local councils is. The 25% figure actually came from some work I was quite involved in in my previous job.
  7. I am a pensions actuary who funily enough used to specialise in the LGPS. If you have any questions i'd be happy to answer them from what I can remember.
  8. Have to post afer seeing that it was like listening to a Pravda in the former USSR. Well done the beeb Four legs good
  9. What a load of rubbish you can get tracker funds with very low (around 0.5% per annum charges) If you want a specialist actively managed fund for a personal pension then you have to pay more. If it doesn't perform you can switch funds as easy as pie. You just cant take the money back out as cash and spend it. Some of the rubbish written about pensions is unbelievable.
  10. I dont understand your point. If an asset manager gets above his benchmark return on the assets he has under control from the pension fund then yes the bank will recieve more fees and the manager will get a better bonus but he has to outperform his benchmark to do this. In this case both the pension trustees who look after the interests of the members and the manager are happy. If he doesnt outperform he wont be getting a bonus. In this case both are unhappy and the trustees may look for a new bond, equity, currency or whatever manager he is.
  11. Pension funds are in deficit because people are living longer and the real return on long term bonds has fallen which mean the value of the liabilities have increased. The value of the assets held have also increased substantially but not as much as the liabilities. Its hardly the asset managers fault.
  12. In that case the 15 and 20% reductions you show are real not nominal falls. If thats the case its fine. So these are actually 12% and 17% nominal falls. This next line simply doesnt make sense then "If prices simply stay static for 3 years you lose £40,000 and still have to spend 10k to get back into the house if you bought it back. " Unless again you clarify that in fact this only occurs if house prices keep up with inflation i.e rise by around 10% over the three year period, which is alot different. Also your time vaue of money argument is a bit off as well.
  13. I think your your analysis is a bit flawed - you need to look at this to get the true profit of taking the sell decision over the stay put decision. Lets say he buys back in one year His costs are Selling fees (1) Rent for one year (2) Repurchasing fees (3) Reduction in released capital due to inflation (4) His income is After tax income generated for year from released capital. (5) If he stays for one year his costs are Mortgage payments (6) Repair/running costs on house (7) Reduction in equity due to inflation (8) Therefore 4 and 8 cancel and should be out of the equation to g
  14. I think its easy to think that a structural change has occured in Britain to cause prices to double or triple in last few years, but if this is the case can you say why in every country without high unemployment levels but with low interest rates has this occured. I think it just because rates were low for so long and now as the globalisation effect unwinds this will be reversed as inflation and hence rates increase. Sometimes the easiest explantion is correct. I.e. world rates went down - prices went up. There was no worldwide structural change to housing demand causing prices to rise so
  15. Buying Bear, Im a pensions actuary working for Public sector funds, the Local Government Pension Scheme, which they were striking about today, is funded I can assure you.
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