Keith.G

Good point we are on the wrong thread - but in the end these points are related to peoples views on affordability If people in Tuffers position have doubts about STR they may be able to consider downsizing for the time being in order to hedge their bets However I think we can be fairly certain the market is not in for the the type of sharp rises which would have made STR a bad decision in recent years

He seems a realist which may be the best way

Oh well.. If the old have less to spend and there are more of them then that should reduce inflationary pressure = relatively low interest rates However many finding it tough may leave the country if they see a better option abroad My parents were both retired and moved to the Irish Republic in 1993 - It had a slower pace of life and they were in a healthier location in the countryside near to the coast. Also the crime rate was low. To them it was reminiscent of how England used to be in the 1950's However things have changed during recent years - The crime rate has increased they have all the drug related problems the same as over here. Also they are getting Polish immigrants due to their membership of the EU....

Is your scenario under Labour or the Tories? The current Gov't inflation target is 2% and the Tories would probably be going for economic growth so deflation is highly unlikely

Absolutely! We still have low inflation and relatively low IR's - But they need to build more residential property to make it more affordable

Some may have mis-planned but people who got into BTL in 2003 or before should be doing ok - especially those who started in the late 90's or before that These people show the traits of sensible investors who are not content to trust pensions alone and the report is proving them right It's preferable to have some additional pension investment as it's tax efficient and along with property and the right level of personal insurances seems about as good as you can get It's a shame some people have not planned sufficiently for their futures believing the state pension would go further than it will in reality

I'm still not convinced BTLers will sell in large enough quantities to cause a market-wide crash Late comer BTLers could be in trouble. However they may not need to sell all their portfolio, only the one's they are struggling to find tennents for As long as a property has a tennant, where they have a repayment mortgage they should be able to restructure their repayments

How prices could recover: 1)new B2L boom? 2)FTB's who were priced out buying in droves? I agree the market seems overvalued and hope affordability improves for FTB's However what about the 'metric' that for each property of £100k a BTLer eventually owns that should bring at least £450-£500 in income (after an initial deposit of £15k, tax on earnings and maintenence of course) That has to be worth something?

These days it doesn't have to go down far before a raft of new buyers step in it seems...

I already realised that's what was being implied! But some of us are interested in facts so I just wanted to check if it's a fact rather than just assuming...

Ask the EA - He could be retiring or consolidating...

Also from the link: "Did Halifax get it right in 2005? No, it predicted a small fall in prices. The market proved a little more robust than predicted due to high levels of employment and continued economic growth." Dash it - They were bears in 2005 and got it wrong then as well!!

In her case it was the Husband who needed a drink!

Opposition parties are always making up policies to attempt to suit the political climate of the day - Then they get in power and don't uphold their promises If we count the Lib-Dems out then we are nothing more than a 2 party state! What's so good about lurching between Con & Lab? The only reason we get change is when one of these parties has alienated enough people Also you mention spending money in Iraq but the Lib-Dems were the only main party to oppose the war! (However, maybe we will get a share of Iraqi oil profits to pay for it eventually) What we need is a party offering a longer term vision of where we should be going but I doubt if this will happen as it could upset vested interests Anyhow, Labour seem suited to opposition - I was right behind them in those days!!

Yes, It seems the 'vested interests' of the wealthy are a priority Multi-National companies rule as they can 'legally' tap the worlds wealth

Don't the unemployed get their cost of renting or mortgage interest paid?Also people who wouldn't qualify for these benefits can take out insurance I have done this so I'd get my mortgage paid for a year if I was unemployed - That should be long enough to find another job or plan the way forwards! Also we are an aging population so the size of the workforce may be reducing - Maybe that's why we need immigration...

Another view: The rental market is the housing market - minus right of ownership

Me & my girlfriend have had the week off and we have been lucky it's been good most the week & quiet now most peoples hol's are over I have rented a couple of times in the past so I understand the point-of-view One of the times I was renting it was convenient & not too expensive (this was after a move of location for a new job) I had convinced myself that property prices were high so would sit tight until they fell (this was from May 2001) Eventually I bought a 2-bed flat for 82.5k in April 2003 after the Landlord wanted to make new arrangements which did not suite me - I was still convinced the market was at it's peak so didn't spend too much Since then I had a further change of work location and did a let-to-buy a year ago moving into a studio All I can suggest to people is they 'hedge' their bets as far as possible - Now it's probably best waiting until spring to see how prices are heading

I admit 50% falls and BTLers panick selling in droves requires a huge pinch of salt Remember that many on this site are pessimists praying for a crash in order to be proved right (at last!) Firstly you'd need IR's to go to 7% or 8% to get any significant falls and a huge majority of BTLers are in it for the log run - however there will be the Johnny come lately exceptions so some types of property in certain areas may see falls Your option 1 seems worth looking at if you can get a significant reduction - You can always walk away if you don't get the deal you are after If you can wait until spring to see the effects of IR & energy increases then all the better! Option 3 seems ok if you want to adopt a wait & see policy

I guess that's why he's asking if he should find someone else to pay 2* the true value for a certain portion!

Take a check in the spring when the rate increases & higher energy bills have kicked in

They aren't saying it'll cause a crash just put the brakes on

I agree - BTLers who are on repayment mortgages (compared to interest only) should be paying more tax but the asset is being paid off over time It's the Landlords geared up with recent IO mortgages who may face a struggle BTLers on repayment mortgages are less likely to be so concerned

Business is not neccesarily about employing whizkids - A lot of IT tasks these days require sound decision making often based on experience Also it can be about following strict procedures already laid down and being good at working in a team The point about working remotely and being as effective is open to debate!

Your sources may be wrong - BTLers are already subject to high taxes I agree that Gordon would want to ensure they are all paying their taxes and none are escaping from paying However if they are over taxed, they may sell properties and then won't he have killed the golden goose? That doesn't seem to make sense along with causing a possible crash which he also wouldn't want Not always - remember a lot of people got into BTL because they are interested in investing in their furures for the long term and may have actually forgone the type of behaviour you are suggesting so they could afford to invest in the first place Also such people would want to accumulate investments but eventually would sell/consolidate at retirement in order to achieve income