House Prices Up 5% In Last Quarter V 2005, Volume Of Sales Up 37% Yoy - Land Registry

[nimmmm]

Yes, I am in the market for a detached house so use these as a bellweather! But what a nice drop at over 8%!

Still spin though!

Figures for Warwickshire & Worcestershire are generally encouraging given that the really prime (highly overpriced) property can be found around there.

Given that the figures are down on last year's Q1 increases, I would say that this news is about on track for falls next year.

[james791]

fuel to the fire

Well that says it all. "Boom", not sustained growth, not sensible marketing, not supply and demand, just Boom. And what always follows a boom? Makes me sick. Im getting more worried as each day passes. I desperatley want a house but quite frankly even the Shi**iest of areas in blackpool are just a bit too expensive. I need prices to fall, now!!!!!

[CrashIsUnderWay]

Here's what's going on -

the last few people who can be stampeded into the market are being herded towards the cliff by the VI scum who make a living by selling other humans into economic slavery.

These VI parasites are able to do this thanks to a fascinating feature of human psychology - there exists an entire subset of the population unable to hold more than 2 mental symbols in place at any one time. I.e. they can't think for themselves.

These people have now reached the stage where they 'just want the pain to stop'.

The 'pain', of course, is the horrible feeling that you have 'missed the boat' and will be 'doomed'.

It's a bit like being caught in a spring steel trap. The pain can become so intense you'd rather lose the leg than wait a few more minutes for the medics to arrive and get you out.

silly buggers

[simon99]

They seem to have turned into an estate agents PR paper lately. The BoE need to act swiftly by raising rates to quell these fears of another boom. Another boom would be a disaster.

Edited May 9, 2006 by simon99

[Realistbear]

Still spin though!

Figures for Warwickshire & Worcestershire are generally encouraging given that the really prime (highly overpriced) property can be found around there.

Given that the figures are down on last year's Q1 increases, I would say that this news is about on track for falls next year.

And its a pity that the media spun out the really good news, the trend:

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/09052006/325/hous...land-wales.html

The rise in house prices in the first three months of this year was less than half the 10.27 percent recorded in January-March 2005, while sales volumes were up more than 37 percent on the year.

Far from price falls next year, I am seeing big falls this year around my area. In fact, my guess is that prices actually fell more like 10% for the 300k plus houses which I am interested in. And that is just one Q.

The figures are spun to look like the market is rising whereas the trendline is still down as the above article says. The BBC make it look like the market is picking up again which goes aginst the trendline and the fact that more cheaper houses are selling hence the decline in the upper end of the market.

The figures for my area show a decline of over 8% which you could, I suppose, spin to mean they are not actually a decline but an improvement over something worse. But I am not sure about this as its best to just present the figures for what they are and rejoice in them!

Edited May 9, 2006 by Realistbear

[Guest wrongmove]

RB: The LR figures are not mix adjusted, so are more useful for volumes than for average price. i.e. if many lower end properties sell, they will misleadingly drag the HPI figure down, or if a few big houses sell, they will drag the figure up.

That said, it is you that are spinning, or deliberately confusing inflation with price. The trend in prices is up, not down. Prices are rising, just more slowly than last year.

Are you one of those people who think that if inflation is falling, then prices are going down ?

[Mags]

I believe that this article is simply the Spring Bounce measured.

Land Registry shows Annual Rate at 5% odd, which is down 50% on the previous year for the same period (10.2%), albeit that volumes were up.

The Halfifax shows UK as a whole for Q1 2006 at 6.2%, down from 9.1% the year before.

Nationwide shows Q1 2006 at 4.8%, down from 7%.

At the end of the year, the figures were as follows: Land Registry 3.9%, Halifax 5.1%, Nationwide 2.4%.

If these figures simply extrapolate for the rest of the year, we are looking at an average of inflation or less for the calendar year, or a drop in real terms.

Chill people.

Exactly! These are not really what you'd expect to see of a healthy housing market. It's all good news.

[nimmmm]

RB: The LR figures are not mix adjusted, so are more useful for volumes than for average price. i.e. if many lower end properties sell, they will misleadingly drag the HPI figure down, or if a few big houses sell, they will drag the figure up.

That said, it is you that are spinning, or deliberately confusing inflation with price. The trend in prices is up, not down. Prices are rising, just more slowly than last year.

Are you one of those people who think that if inflation is falling, then prices are going down ?

But the Halifax and Nationwide are mix-adjusted, I believe, and the trend is firmly down - see my post #17

Edit - thanks Mags

Edited May 9, 2006 by nimmmm

[smiley]

Getting things in perspective, we've had a 3% real increase in prices. Since the national growth rate is about that, it means houses have not increased as a share of national wealth at all.

Why is this a cause for celebration? Because the House Price Crash message is getting through! VIs ARE worried that the end really is nigh - they are celebrating like a man playing Russian Roulette who's pistol clicks on an empty cartridge.

They know the dawn is coming - they are celebrating the darkest hour!

[jp1]

Trend in my area, East Sussex, is volumes up, prices down

East Sussex prices: Q1 2006: -3.5% / YoY: -1.0%

Lewes prices: Q1 2006: -6.8% / YoY: -3.6%

[Guest wrongmove]

But the Halifax and Nationwide are mix-adjusted, I believe, and the trend is firmly down - see my post #17

Edit - thanks Mags

Haliwide is mix adjusted, but again you are confusing inflation with price. The trend in price is up, just less quickly than this time last year. Look back a few months and even inflation was lower. So the recent trend in infation is also up. The graph below shows HP inflation (not price) over the last year or so, according to Haliwide.

Edited May 9, 2006 by wrongmove

[Guest Cletus VanDamme]

Meanwhile Savill's are continuing to ramp the second homes market:

http://www.onetel.net/snippet.php?section=property&story=1

"After stock market reverses and problems with financial products like endowments, bricks and mortar is an investment everybody understands and feels happy to make."

Even they seem surprised by the continued boom though:

"Although prices have soared in Devon, we have been surprised by an increase in the number of would-be second home buyers in the past six months. So many people are completely disillusioned with pensions and financial advisors that they are more comfortable if they borrow to buy an attractive home which could earn a gross £15,00-17,000 a year, which nets down to about £11,000 before mortgage repayments."

Tax-breaks on second homes are the reason though:

"However, Mr Cornwell says the Inland Revenue decision to treat holiday cottage rents as earned income helps to drive the second homes boom - because buyers on good incomes, with perhaps 10-15 years of their career left, use hefty losses on holiday homes to slash their tax bill on other earnings."

So, as pointed out earlier, we are in an Irish style boom. There's years to go yet people.

[cupidstunt]

One word.......

CAPITULATION

Edited May 9, 2006 by cupidstunt

[Realistbear]

RB: The LR figures are not mix adjusted, so are more useful for volumes than for average price. i.e. if many lower end properties sell, they will misleadingly drag the HPI figure down, or if a few big houses sell, they will drag the figure up.

That said, it is you that are spinning, or deliberately confusing inflation with price. The trend in prices is up, not down. Prices are rising, just more slowly than last year.

Are you one of those people who think that if inflation is falling, then prices are going down ?

The trend: "the rise in house prices in the first three months of this year was less than half the 10.27 percent recorded in January-March 2005,"

This is simply demonstrating a slowing market. Prices may be continuing to rise in some instances and in some areas but if the trend continues the rises must become falls. If the rate of appreciation is less than half it points toward an eventual HPC if the trend lines continues. For some areas the prices are falling as the LR indicates for my area. They may be rising if you compare the figures to 2003 but I am only interested in the actual prices today and where they are likely to be in the next year or so.

I agree that the overall picture shows continued HPI but if you look at my region for detached houses you see a fall in prices of just over 8% which must mean that the £300k house has dropped by £24k. To me that is a fall in price rather than an increase. Granted some areas saw increases but it is wrong, in my view, to say that the market is still rising without explaining that the rises are slowing down and slowing dramtically. That is the spin.

[nimmmm]

Haliwide is mix adjusted, but again you are confusing inflation with price. The trend in price is up, just less quickly than this time last year. Look back a few months and even inflation was lower. So the recent trend in infation is also up. The graph below shows HP inflation (not price) over the last year or so, according to Haliwide.

I take your point, but the Halifax and Nationwide graphs show differing pictures. Halifax shows a sharp rise, and latterly Nationwide shows a fall. My point was, and remains, that this is the Spring Bounce in HPI figures which will come out flat by year end - inflationary rises only.

[IMupNorth]

Interesting to see that Harrogate is +5.7% on the year. Is ImUpNorth going to get his own back today?

I don't follow LR prices too close, I think the volume is what matters most. Incidentally my local area is up 4.9% on the year.

In yer Face 'Sign of the times'

Now I haven't checked any figures so I'm just going off your post, I'll probably check the figures out sometime in the next few days and then I'll set about humiliating the baffon they call 'sign of the times' properly.

Anyway, why are people so suprised, this was all so predictable.

Lets reiterate - houses are affordable for most people, there is no bubble in house prices, they are completely underpinned by fuindamentals. Those fundamentals are based on low IRs and hence % of take home pay for a mortgage.

Once you admit these things to yourself, then you will also see exactly why the market keeps edging upwards and you will no longer be shocked or in denial. JUST GET REAL PEOPLE.

When or if IRs go up substantially then you will get your HPC - but this needs rates at least of 5.5% within the next 6 months to cause the necessary problems. IT AIN'T GOING TO HAPPEN.

Despite Realist Bears mad ramblings, we probably won't even get a 0.25% rise by Xmas. Even if we get a rise next year, do you think it will go higher quickly ? JUST BE HONEST WITH YOURSELVES RATHER LIVING IN A DREAM.

And if you can't afford to buy, then don't and keep renting.

[bachelor]

One word.......

CAPITULATION

Never! We've been through worse periods than this before and survived, it just looks like a case of waiting longer and saving longer.

[Guest wrongmove]

Granted some areas saw increases but it is wrong, in my view, to say that the market is still rising without explaining that the rises are slowing down and slowing dramtically. That is the spin.

Both the articles quoted in this thread clearly state that HPI is less than it was a year ago. Neither of them quote that HPI is higher than it was 6 months ago, so even the bulls could accuse them of spin. I'm no bull, but I feel it is best to look at all the facts, not just the ones that fit my dream scenario.

[Time to raise the rents.]

This is bad, bad news.

Can't someone spin it?

This is good news.

Spun.

[Realistbear]

In yer Face 'Sign of the times'

Now I haven't checked any figures so I'm just going off your post, I'll probably check the figures out sometime in the next few days and then I'll set about humiliating the baffon they call 'sign of the times' properly.

Anyway, why are people so suprised, this was all so predictable.

Lets reiterate - houses are affordable for most people, there is no bubble in house prices, they are completely underpinned by fuindamentals. Those fundamentals are based on low IRs and hence % of take home pay for a mortgage.

Once you admit these things to yourself, then you will also see exactly why the market keeps edging upwards and you will no longer be shocked or in denial. JUST GET REAL PEOPLE.

When or if IRs go up substantially then you will get your HPC - but this needs rates at least of 5.5% within the next 6 months to cause the necessary problems. IT AIN'T GOING TO HAPPEN.

Despite Realist Bears mad ramblings, we probably won't even get a 0.25% rise by Xmas. Even if we get a rise next year, do you think it will go higher quickly ? JUST BE HONEST WITH YOURSELVES RATHER LIVING IN A DREAM.

And if you can't afford to buy, then don't and keep renting.

I suppose Warren Buffett has got it wrong again? If houses are affordable why are FTBs unable to buy them at reasonable multiples? Why do even the VIs say affordability is an issue that will slow rises in the future? Why is the UK characterized by a boom-bust property market which Gordon acknowledged when he took office and vowed to end? Has there been a boom since he came to power?

For those who say the economic cycle has been eliminated--good luck in your dreams.

This is good news.

Spun.

This is bad news--counter spun! Depends how you look at things, and as the fly said when it crawled accross the mirror: that's just one way of looking at it.

With appreciation halving from the rate in 2005 (which was not spectacular) I would say that HPI is continuing to trend downwards. There you are, another counter spin!

[Guest wrongmove]

With appreciation halving from the rate in 2005 (which was not spectacular) I would say that HPI is continuing to trend downwards. There you are, another counter spin!

But HPI is up by 3x since last autumn (post 37) - you are cherry picking your trends !!

[Guest boredwaiting]

I think it's safe to say know one has a clue what's going on... Crash or not - houses are not worth the money they are so why buy? I think the only indicator now will be the cost of renting.... I guess there are no sites that has the information on what people are paying on rent? That would be interesting.

Edited May 9, 2006 by boredwaiting

[Time to raise the rents.]

Wandsworth up 7.3% in the quarter.

Go for it bears, tell me why that is bad for me.

[bachelor]

Wandsworth up 7.3% in the quarter.

Go for it bears, tell me why that is bad for me.

It makes no difference for you TTRTR, it's just paper wealth. But it does make a difference to the hundreds of thousands of FTBs unable to afford a home.

[zag2me]

Remember these figures are for the 1st quarter of the year! from what I can see house prices are going even more crazy in my area at the moment. I dread to see what the next quarter's figures are, it looks like the trend will be up over summer when people really start buying houses!

That coupled with the mortgage companies relaxing their lending criteria and I suggest we may be in for a mini boom.

Of course this will end when the bank of england raises interest rates, but i dont see any of the fundementals changing yet.

Edited May 9, 2006 by zag2me