Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Converted Lurker

House Prices Up 5% In Last Quarter V 2005, Volume Of Sales Up 37% Yoy - Land Registry

Recommended Posts

House prices up 5% in last quarter YoY, volume of sales up 37% YoY

Residential UK house prices in England and Wales grew at a faster pace in the first three months of this year, with the number of sales up by over a third on a year ago, official figures showed on Tuesday.

The Land Registry, a government agency which records details of all property transactions, said house prices rose 5.05 percent in January to March compared with the same period a year earlier.

That was up from a 4.6 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2005 and took the average house price in England and Wales to 192,745 pounds.

The rise in house prices in the first three months of this year was less than half the 10.27 percent recorded in January-March 2005, while sales volumes were up more than 37 percent on the year.

Surveys have shown house price inflation picking up since the Bank of England cut interest rates last August, although it is still a long way off the heady double-digit growth rates of two years ago when the property market was at its peak.

http://firstrung.co.uk/articles.asp?pageid...1914&cat=47-0-0

Edited by Converted Lurker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest wrongmove

This is not good news for me as a wannabe FTB, but can we finally see the end of this "but transactions are down" BS ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is not good news for me as a wannabe FTB, but can we finally see the end of this "but transactions are down" BS ?

There`s the old chestnut of the "data lag" argument..but quite frankly I`m stunned at this news. I`ve just done my usual trick of putting my own area in their comparison tool and sure enough my area is up significantly both in volumes and prices.... :( I did not expect this...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest wrongmove

There`s the old chestnut of the "data lag" argument..but quite frankly I`m stunned at this news. I`ve just done my usual trick of putting my own area in their comparison tool and sure enough my area is up significantly both in volumes and prices.... :( I did not expect this...

Check out this thread CL http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...33&hl=approvals

This was all foretold in the tea leaves, or rather the mortgage approvals for house purchase excluding MEW and remortgaging. Demand is currently strong and rising, and consistent with double digit HPI in the coming few months.

Sad and scary, but not surprising.

Edited by wrongmove

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sad and scary, but not surprising.

I quite agree, this is of course purely driven by debt, the broad money supply has been rising 13.1% YoY in the UK.

We may well be 'going Irish', I place us in a mid-1999 timeframe in comparison to the dotcom bubble.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I quite agree, this is of course purely driven by debt, the broad money supply has been rising 13.1% YoY in the UK.

We may well be 'going Irish', I place us in a mid-1999 timeframe in comparison to the dotcom bubble.

Its the volume of sales that freaks me out, not nec. the prices. For all of the past twelve months it`s felt and looked to me as though the market had stalled <_<

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The tranaction volume up 37% YoY is on a low volume in Jan-Mar 2005 of 159116 which would make it around 218000 this time. Although not great but expected with the pre-christmas activity, where it goes from here will be more telling. (current signs don't look good)

I still believe the fundamentals are wrong, so a correction will have to occur, but it will probably require higher interest rates to cause a crash.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well I can only report Liverpool

JAN-MAR 2006

Detached Semi-Detached Terraced Flat/Maisonette Overall

Region/Area Av Price £ Sales Av Price £ Sales Av Price £ Sales Av Price £ Sales Av Price £ Sales

LIVERPOOL 255227 88 141475 308 89841 802 150147 206 120382 1404

JAN-MAR 2005

Detached Semi-Detached Terraced Flat/Maisonette Overall

Region/Area Av Price £ Sales Av Price £ Sales Av Price £ Sales Av Price £ Sales Av Price £ Sales

LIVERPOOL 241418 92 128822 308 77610 961 144623 365 109651 1726

Its quite clear that the massive rise is in FLATS this accounts for 159 of the 322 sales rise. Terraced up 159 sales. So its only really FLATs and TERRACES. Is the FTB back?

However, total sales were

Q1 2006 = 1404

Q4 2005 = 2130

Q3 2005 = 2259

Q2 2005 = 2064

Q1 2005 = 1726

Q4 2004 = 2447

Q3 2004 = 2966

Q2 2004 = 2959

Q1 2004 = 2651

So I realise there will be a bit of lag but its actually quite low the volumes. Hmm - think this needs further investigation

Right the house in Toxteth is going on the market for £1.2 million!!!

TB

This is bad, bad news. :(

Can't someone spin it? :unsure:

THE BIGGER THEY ARE THE HARDER THEY FALL!

Edited by teddyboy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Winners and Losers

THE BIGGER THEY ARE THE HARDER THEY FALL!

That will do! :D;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I had more or less been expecting a figure like this, it's yet another kick in the teeth for FTBs like me. :(

There's only so much I can say to myself "the higher they go, the harder they fall" without starting to feel really rather despondent, which is how I am at the moment.

Edited by Warwickshire Lad

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How irritating. At least interest rates will presumably go up, which should nip similar rises in later quarters.

I guess I'm not surprised. All annecdotal evidence I have is of ftb's who are willing to stretch to current prices because they are frightened of future rises and believe it's the best investment of their money. That makes it a seller's market.

My brother and wife want to buy in Oxford, and his wife is convinced after watching Kirsty that they have to do it soon as prices will keep rising. They will do anything to get on the market.

My friend who'se convinced there's a crash around the corner says he can only hold out one more year, and then his girlfriend won't acccept any further delays. He buys second hand clothes to save up for the deposit.

My colleague just tried to buy a house in Oxford for 295 000. Once they had put in their offer, the house price went up to 300 000.

I don't know to what extent the fundamentals underly the prices, but the fundamentals aren't changing much and people are blind to sacrifices and desperate to get on the market. The herd factor is as strong as ever, and there is no arbitrage in the market or ways of encouraging an early correction.

Until house prices become truly unaffordable (rather than just painful) or there is some external shock it looks like they'll just keep on rising...

It just beggars belief that people are willing to drive this market on.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The BBC house price page is updated: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...html/houses.stm

Edit:

So prices in the south east has fallen 0.14% over the last 6 months.

In Hampshire prices have fallen 2.59% over the last 6 months.

One of the main reasons is prices were subdued this time last year.

Edited by Jason

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not good news for perma bears.

:lol:

I think what the stats indicate is that there isn't the squeeze on EAs that bears think there is happening and money supply is still abundant. In other words no sign of the HPC yet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I believe that this article is simply the Spring Bounce measured.

Land Registry shows Annual Rate at 5% odd, which is down 50% on the previous year for the same period (10.2%), albeit that volumes were up.

The Halfifax shows UK as a whole for Q1 2006 at 6.2%, down from 9.1% the year before.

Nationwide shows Q1 2006 at 4.8%, down from 7%.

At the end of the year, the figures were as follows: Land Registry 3.9%, Halifax 5.1%, Nationwide 2.4%.

If these figures simply extrapolate for the rest of the year, we are looking at an average of inflation or less for the calendar year, or a drop in real terms.

Chill people. B)

Edited by nimmmm

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

fuel to the fire :(

express.gif

wonder which property company has the express by the gonads ?

I was expecting a big jump on last year, as with any suckers rally there's always a jump upwards.

prices well down in my area (harrogate) which has brought out some buyers but will have to rise 10% this year just to get back where they were in 2004 (harrogate)

Edited by sign_of_the_times

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The BBC house price page is updated: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...html/houses.stm

Edit:

So prices in the south east has fallen 0.14% over the last 6 months.

In Hampshire prices have fallen 2.59% over the last 6 months.

Thank you for posting this link, what started as a 'bad news' morning for me, has turned out to be rather good news morning:

Test Valley (Hampshire) -7.2%.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For south somerset:

Q1 2004 173436 878

Q1 2005 193755 460

Q1 2006 184994 721

Recovery in the number of sales, but prices down 4.5%, although still up 6.6% over 2 years.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some very nice figures for my area!

NAME AV PRICE (£) QUARTER ANNUAL SALES

Stratford-On-Avon

£328,827 -8.2% -8.8% 162

They are crashing harder than last Q when houses plunged by 7.8%!

:D:D:D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some very nice figures for my area!

NAME AV PRICE (£) QUARTER ANNUAL SALES

Stratford-On-Avon

£328,827 -8.2% -8.8% 162

They are crashing harder than last Q when houses plunged by 7.8%!

:D:D:D

Yeh, but that's only for detached houses RB, you spin meister.

Stratford-On-Avon £240,614 -6.8% Last Quarter, -1.9% Annual - the overall picture - far more rosy!

Birmingham took a pounding too last quarter: £148,835 -1.3% Last Quarter 7% Annual

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting to see that Harrogate is +5.7% on the year. Is ImUpNorth going to get his own back today?

<_<

I don't follow LR prices too close, I think the volume is what matters most. Incidentally my local area is up 4.9% on the year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeh, but that's only for detached houses RB, you spin meister.

Stratford-On-Avon £240,614 -6.8% Last Quarter, -1.9% Annual - the overall picture - far more rosy!

Birmingham took a pounding too last quarter: £148,835 -1.3% Last Quarter 7% Annual

Yes, I am in the market for a detached house so use these as a bellweather! But what a nice drop at over 8%!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Look, all that has happened is that mortgage companies last (and this year) again relaxed their lending criteria - 10 to let, £1 million to let, parent guarantor, etc etc and the BOE obliged with a rate cut and hints of further cuts from "economists".

All that has happened is that another £100Bn has been stuffed down UK PLC's Y fronts, well UK PLC is shipping abroad, it cannot and will not take any more of this, largely it cannot afford to attract staff to jobs bacause staff cannot afford to take the jobs at global rates (migrant workers excepted, as their ultimate purchase basket is in their home country).

Vauxhall, Pru, NTL, Orange is just the latest batch - the genie is out of the bottle and rather than popping the cork back in the champagne bottle certain parties seem intent on smashing it on the sides of what remains of the manufacturing hulk of the UK until something breaks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.