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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by smiley

  1. We need many more of these 'HPC is good' articles. You can be sure that, when people realise prices are falling, there'll be sob stories and complaints ("I was told I'd made X-squillion on my BTL, but now I've only made half that..."). The 'HPC is good' narrative will have to counter them.
  2. It's a really read. Most of the alarmist talk from the NLA is actually encouraging, eg "They could put 100,000 properties on the market every year" - which would be great. The only downer is their survey, which finds only 28% of landlords are not thinking of taking on more property. Does that mean 72% are planning to buy more houses?
  3. Working for a living is well out of fashion.
  4. In India, there's a website called 'I paid a bribe.com', and apparently it's been very influential at getting people to stop asking for bribes (since others get to find out). In the UK, we could set up 'I paid rent to...' dot com. It could lead to interesting places for tax dodging landlords...
  5. Do you have to spend the money on a property at the end of it? Or can you just enjoy the interest rate? If you have to spend the money on a property, then is this model going to go further? Will there be 'help to buy' lottery tickets, pensions and dentists? Is there anything which could remain immune from the Great Cult of the Property Market?
  6. The problem isn't money printing per se. It's money printing in the way they've done it. If they just printed £1,000 for every man, woman and child, the world would be much better than letting banks print it for favoured clients.
  7. I thought that was a very good piece by Paul Mason. Far better than the myopic nonsense you get on the BBC. (Indeed, I'm just waiting for the BBC News to come up with: 'XX Trillion wiped off share prices, but thankfully property prices are still going up, because you're money's always safe in houses...')
  8. It's OK - preaching the choir is forgiven. I've been preaching that house prices are a massively overvalued bubble for well over a decade. I've even quoted rafts of economic facts to prove it. Most of the people I know just say things like 'well you've been proved wrong - if you'd bought five/ten/fifteen years ago you'd be rich now'. It feels like I've spent the last fifteen years saying 'No honestly, gravity really is a downward force you know' and everybody else has been patting my head while they float off into the air... Preaching to the choir helps maintain sanity.
  9. Interesting. They're right, but I wonder how they reached '1.9' - and what it means? 90% overvalued? Overvalued compared to what?
  10. What they mean is that the purchasing power of wages halves every ten years...
  11. Me too. I could have bought in the early noughties, but was convinced there was a house price bubble and they should crash. I'm still convinced there's a house price bubble and they're about to crash. Not sure I can still afford to buy, though.
  12. Technological changes could make our society more like an oil rich gulf state - with most revenue flowing from a small number of sources, and most of the population dependent on the goodwill of those who control the resource for their livelihood. But - as long as there's half-decent democracy - it should come through that, like the gulf states, the welfare state, perhaps with a basic citizens' income for all, redistributes to the majority.
  13. I think just bringing this measure in - or perhaps just talking about it - could trigger a run on the banks.
  14. It's such a ghastly programme. It really does exude everything that is so awful about the 'property phenomenum' in the UK.
  15. Because the deal for renters in the UK is terrible: Very few rights, most or all of the property tax burden, and few powers to enforce landlords to act. In most other OECD countries, it is property owners, not renters, who pay taxes (eg on capital gains, or municipal taxes).
  16. OK, so I'm one with those who expect and gleefully await a crash in property prices in the UK. Once speculative demand - the view that prices must keep going up - is turned into reverse, the market should be swamped, and prices fall. But how far? From the late-80s to the mid-90s they fell by about a third in real terms. This time, it's easier and more common for owners to rent out their properties. And with rents still high (and rising), will this cushion the crash? The 'asset' - property - will still have value, since it's still generating an income. So - will rents cushion the crash,
  17. The only people buying houses nowadays - that they are actually going to live in themselves - have been given substantial deposits by their parents. (Someone here may know the stats - I think it's 2/3rds of FTBs). But... if a parent gifts a child their deposit of many thousands of pounds, shouldn't that child pay capital gains on it? If not why not? Do the HMRC just turn a blind eye? And, if the CGT rules were enforced properly, what would happen...?
  18. Very interesting that prices AND volumes fell - it suggests prices have much further to go. A very small sample, but then so is a canary in a coal mine...
  19. Hmmm. I've been a (strong) bear since 1999, and agree houses are massively over-valued. But will it end, and soon? Most buyers now are investors, looking for rent - and in much of the country, rents can more-or-less cover debt servicing and other costs. Even if prices slipped 20%, or the pound fell by that amount, many would just see it as a buying opportunity, since rents would then more than cover costs. But we know prices have crashed in the past, and those things could happen again. So what has triggered crashes in the past? I would three things: 1 - Significant increase in expect
  20. It may not end so quickly. What we have is good old fashioned inflation, but whereas previous inflations (Weimar Republic etc) were in normal goods, this one has been focussed on assets - of all classes around the world, but in the UK concentrated on property. The shift is because, in the past the newly printed money leaked into the normal economy; now it's generated through loans on assets. So, how long can it go on? As long as the bank/mortgage-driven computerised printing presses keep going. Or am I wrong?
  21. A very good post. I hope you're right, and you probably are. But, two quibbles: (1) If 20% of mortgages are BTL, and half the housing stock is mortgaged, it doesn't follow that 10% of the housing stock is BTL. It could be more, or less (unless the 20% refers to all active mortgages, not just current mortgages being given out, which is what I think). (2) What about overseas buyers? Yes, they might all flock away when it crashes, but if they can evade UK taxes (do buyers from Singapore pay CGT to the UK?) then they may simply buy from the BTL landlords leaving the market.
  22. Is there any way in which the housing market actually functions - you know, like, properly?
  23. It's a nice piece, but it also spells out all the sops to BTL - it's more than subsidised!
  24. Unless... this is concerted attempt to take the steam out of the housing market. It comes days after the National Crime Agency published the report - the PM could have ignored it if he wanted to, but instead he's choosing to make an issue of it, hinting at further limits on the housing market. Add to this the budget moves to work against BTL, and you can see a government realise it was vulnerable on house prices at the eleciton, and is trying to calm it down for the next one. They probably want a gentle descent, not a crash, though.
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