camem' Posted March 12, 2006 Share Posted March 12, 2006 bet they don't respond this quickly when it's going down ! Woolwich : Feb 12 4.67 % Mar 12 now 4.78 % Norwich & Peterborough Feb 12 4.68 % Mar 12 now 4.88 % Portman 5 year fix Feb 12 4.59 % Mar 12 now 4.79 % Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheston Pelvis Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 They aren't alone. The West Bromwich Building Society put their rates up from 4.79% to 4.89% a few weeks ago. That said, though, the Nationwide have now dropped their 10-year fixed rate from 4.89% to 4.79%! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nodumsunreader Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 They aren't alone. The West Bromwich Building Society put their rates up from 4.79% to 4.89% a few weeks ago. That said, though, the Nationwide have now dropped their 10-year fixed rate from 4.89% to 4.79%! The pound has fallen last week indicating that the markets are expecting a FALL in IR's in April. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winners and Losers Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 The pound has fallen last week indicating that the markets are expecting a FALL in IR's in April. awooga Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Blek Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 The pound has fallen last week indicating that the markets are expecting a FALL in IR's in April. All you bulls can live in hope. In fact, I do hope they do a cut in IR. Cause then we'll see houseprices jump up again and then the crash will really be here. You can starve a recession once, but don't try the same trick twice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aussieboy Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 awooga Unfortunately, this is the kind of knee jerk response to any information that doesn't concur with a bearish view that completely demolishes this site's credibility in the eyes of many visitors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nodumsunreader Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 All you bulls can live in hope. In fact, I do hope they do a cut in IR. Cause then we'll see houseprices jump up again and then the crash will really be here. You can starve a recession once, but don't try the same trick twice. With rates at 4.5%, the trick can and will be repeated many more times. If you think 4.5% is low, try 2.5 %. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
non-FTBer Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 The pound has fallen last week indicating that the markets are expecting a FALL in IR's in April. What financial insight! There are quite a few reasons why currencies move on the forex markets... and IRs are certainly not the only factor in influencing exchange rates, otherwise currency traders would be replaced with trained monkeys (or computers... but I like the monkey idea better). The reason that currency exchange markets are often regarded as unpredictable is that there isn't a direct correlation between a particular event that has a corresponding definite effect on the market. This describes the irrationality of markets at some points in time, and currency exchange markets seem to do a nice line in being irrational. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New Bear Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 The pound has fallen last week indicating that the markets are expecting a FALL in IR's in April. Is that the only possible reason that the £ fell? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sisyphus Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 The pound has fallen last week indicating that the markets are expecting a FALL in IR's in April. No, the pound fell last week because the market expects rates to rise in US and Europe . The market actually expects UK rates to be held in April and for the forseeable future. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Blek Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 Unfortunately, this is the kind of knee jerk response to any information that doesn't concur with a bearish view that completely demolishes this site's credibility in the eyes of many visitors. WTF. Its comments like this that totally piss me off. So someone posts a one word answer that doesn't fit with your view and you act like a retard. Maybe you should look at the reason why people post 'awooga' first (even though I think they could come up with a better word). Yes, there's more bears on this forum than bulls. If you want the alternate view, go to SP and see what they do to bears over there. IMO, bulls have never had it so good on this site, even with them peddling their VI crap. And to give some advice to you bulls out there:you'll be needing this site soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nodumsunreader Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 What financial insight! There are quite a few reasons why currencies move on the forex markets... and IRs are certainly not the only factor in influencing exchange rates, otherwise currency traders would be replaced with trained monkeys (or computers... but I like the monkey idea better). The reason that currency exchange markets are often regarded as unpredictable is that there isn't a direct correlation between a particular event that has a corresponding definite effect on the market. This describes the irrationality of markets at some points in time, and currency exchange markets seem to do a nice line in being irrational. Silly me!! Of course the pound falling means that rates are going up. I'd better pile into the Euro and take advantage of 2.5% before UK rates hit 5% then Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Blek Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 With rates at 4.5%, the trick can and will be repeated many more times. If you think 4.5% is low, try 2.5 %. Thankyou for admiting its a trick. The trick is driving the economy into a recession. Each trick has a cumulative effect on the economy driving it deeper into recession. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cupidstunt Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 With rates at 4.5%, the trick can and will be repeated many more times. If you think 4.5% is low, try 2.5 %. So the rest of the World raises interest rates and we reduce them? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winners and Losers Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 (edited) Unfortunately, this is the kind of knee jerk response to any information that doesn't concur with a bearish view that completely demolishes this site's credibility in the eyes of many visitors. I think carefully before I awooga. I have been awooga'd myself. My response was such because I think nodumwhatever is just posting now as a troublemaker and not really trying to contribute to the debate from the bullish standpoint. You should know that the opinion of the bulls who visit this site are respected and welcomed. Nodumwhatever is just becoming a troll. Edited March 13, 2006 by Winners and Losers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Observer Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 Unfortunately, this is the kind of knee jerk response to any information that doesn't concur with a bearish view that completely demolishes this site's credibility in the eyes of many visitors. I agree. I'm a long standing Bear on this sie, but the bear-fascism and claw strutching by some Bears on this site absolutely beggars belief. It aint gonna happen just coz we say it will, and deny any counter-views. Prices, unfortunately are buoyant at the moment. It doesn't help my cause by denying it. Thankyou for admiting its a trick. The trick is driving the economy into a recession. Each trick has a cumulative effect on the economy driving it deeper into recession. None of which proves that it wont happen, of course. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
karhu Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 (edited) With rates at 4.5%, the trick can and will be repeated many more times. If you think 4.5% is low, try 2.5 %. If you think 4.5% is high, try 7%. Idiot. The only thing that history teaches us is that we don't learn from history; or, at least you don't. Edited March 13, 2006 by karhu Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyShears Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 WTF. Its comments like this that totally piss me off. So someone posts a one word answer that doesn't fit with your view and you act like a retard. Maybe you should look at the reason why people post 'awooga' first (even though I think they could come up with a better word). Yes, there's more bears on this forum than bulls. If you want the alternate view, go to SP and see what they do to bears over there. IMO, bulls have never had it so good on this site, even with them peddling their VI crap. And to give some advice to you bulls out there:you'll be needing this site soon. SingingPig forums are a quite reasonable place to discuss the property market for either bulls or bears. The problem is that it's not very active. But I've never had problems posting bearish views there. Billy Shears Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winners and Losers Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 SingingPig forums are a quite reasonable place to discuss the property market for either bulls or bears. The problem is that it's not very active. But I've never had problems posting bearish views there. Billy Shears That is probably because your approach was intelligent and you were able to provide some form of evidence (anecdotal or otherwise) in support of the point you were putting across. Unlike nodum who seems to have a bee in his/her bonnet at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AteMoose Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 (edited) The UK future market suggests rises in the short term..... UK http://members.cox.net/dmrc/InterestRates/UK_Rates.htm Similar rises in the YEN http://members.cox.net/dmrc/InterestRates/JY_Rates.htm The markets seem to be starting to price in these rises... Edited March 13, 2006 by moosetea Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Mainwaring Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 Personally I'd call 7% low. In fact when rates went down to 8% in 1988 everyone was excited at the prospect of unusually low rates. Current IR levels are wierdly low in an economy without credit controls. Normality is on the way it seems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aussieboy Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 That is probably because your approach was intelligent and you were able to provide some form of evidence (anecdotal or otherwise) in support of the point you were putting across. Unlike nodum who seems to have a bee in his/her bonnet at the moment. Which is why I posted a reply to your awooga. Crying troll is no substitute for a reasoned rebuttal, which is the point of this forum. If not, then we end up like f---edcompany.com. Useful debate can easily be stifled if people cry troll too often, viz the debacle earlier this year regarding who can and cannot start a topic. This site is a useful resource to get informed for anyone thinking of buying now or at any point in the future. For Mr Blek's benefit: www.f---edcompany.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingofnowhere Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 Personally I'd call 7% low. In fact when rates went down to 8% in 1988 everyone was excited at the prospect of unusually low rates. Current IR levels are wierdly low in an economy without credit controls. Normality is on the way it seems. Hi FWIW historical interest rate in the UK are 4.75%, if we remove the period between 1970 and 1990 when interest rates where unusually high, then interest rates were 4.25% Perhaps the new paradigm was high interest rates, caused by the moving from a economy with credit controls to one without? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wrongmove Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 FWIW historical interest rate in the UK are 4.75%, if we remove the period between 1970 and 1990 when interest rates where unusually high, then interest rates were 4.25% This is one reason why income multiples look flawed as a fundamental. The figure of 3.5x may just be a coincidence. 1. pre-1970, IRs are low, but there are many single-income households (typically the woman stays at home), and there is large amounts of social housing. Houses at 3.5x household income 2. 1970-1990, household incomes rise as more women join the workforce, and social housing stock starts to diminish, but high and unstable interest rates reduce affordibility. Houses at say 2.5x household income, due to high IRs 3. post 1990, low and stable IRs, very little social housing, most households have two incomes. Houses at 3.5x household income (as normal) but household income = say 1.5x single income on average. Conclusion - houses are certainly not cheap at the moment, but they are not that expensive either, historically speaking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
camem' Posted May 4, 2006 Author Share Posted May 4, 2006 bet they don't respond this quickly when it's going down ! Woolwich : Feb 12 4.67 % Mar 12 now 4.78 % Norwich & Peterborough Feb 12 4.68 % Mar 12 now 4.88 % Portman 5 year fix Feb 12 4.59 % Mar 12 now 4.79 % Up even more ! Woolwich 10yr May 4 : 4.99 % N & P 10yr May 4 : 5.14 % Portman 5 year : 5.19% and all in a time of 'stable' interest rates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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