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Everything posted by karhu

  1. Who would want to take over NRK lock, stock & barrel? In circumstances like this the bidder would want the tender cuts of meat and not the fat. There are many ways of achieving this (and who better than a bank to know how to do this), some of which may not benefit: the shareholders, the depositors, the mortgage holders. I've seen quite a few companies wound up by banks (they do it every day and are experts) and it is an extremely ruthless process; NRK will be no different.
  2. http://orange.advfn.com/news_HBOS-not-bidd...s_22317893.html
  3. I think you're very close to the mark. However, I'll believe 200p a share when I see it. It may be less and causing even the most desperate to think twice....
  4. 100p a share would value NRK at around the £400 million mark, which is quite frankly most astounding. It absolutely suggest that things at NRK are much, much, much worse than any can image. It must certainly not be a solvent business, considering the accounts that I have seen, i.e. there goes the Govt backing of depositor's £££. NRK is going down big time. I think the big boys only want the prime mortgages, the rest is going to have to be liquidated and looks like the BoE may have to stand some losses here .
  5. http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articl...ROCK-URGENT.XML
  6. http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/...193/default.stm
  7. Here's mine and the FT's logic here. 1. There is no way that the Govt & BoE can guarantee deposits on a long terms basis - for one reason this would give NRK a competitive advantage going forward. 2. Therefore, it is a short-term measure to try to stop people panicking, not to save their deposits. The small-print also seems to suggest that it relates to a solvent bank. NRK solvency status is not clearly known & could change at any moment. 3. This situation is going to get worse before it gets better. 4. Therefore, it will be withdrawn at some future date (probably very soon in the
  8. Yes, they will only guarantee a sizable fraction of the first £35k, which before the announcement was not guaranteed, it was only subject to funds being available. No government would be crazy enough to guarantee all deposits in a private bank.
  9. I think it's quite easy to see why A&L are in the spotlight, as according to their balance sheet they are next up in the list of banks that rely on the wholesale market to fund their debt. The key thing here is that these "banks" changed the way that mortgages worked by using the wholesale market & their whole business model is dependent on it. Someone must have a sniff of the fact that their working capital is thin. A run of a few £Bn could put them in serious trouble very quickly. For comparison, according to my figures, NRK relied about 60% wholesale (which is why they could market
  10. There were rumours that NRK shares had been suspended at 810am this morning. Not sure if there's any susbstance here.
  11. A&L doesn't quite fit your description, but as far as I'm aware those potentially in trouble are: NRK PAG BB AL i.e. those who have been selling innovative products at ridiculously low prices (underpricing risk) - mainly BTL & sub/near-prime.
  12. Northern Crock are doomed. They've been struggling for months. I put a short on them 2 weeks ago after their share price rose. Who's next.... ? Pretty obvious, isn't it? http://www.bradford-bingley.co.uk/
  13. Amazing - serious volatility. Oil is up and broad money growth is out of control. Will the BoE be forced to raise even in the face of a financial meltdown. This has the potential to be far, far, far worse than the US situation. The is a category 5 financial crisis on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
  14. And..... The money markets are pricing a 0.25% rise in interest rates in September.... Only one word for it ... Armageddon
  15. http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currency/gbp_...keyword=article
  16. I really looks like we are going to see an October general election 2007, so that means IR futures will price no change until November.
  17. http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/article2878778.ece
  18. Saw this on Sky News this afternoon. Does anyone have a link? Things must be bad.
  19. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...I4&refer=us
  20. For sure. Furthermore, we're aggressivley marketing buy-back schemes, which have already been vitually outlawed in many US states. This UK may be the last to fall, but I can't help thinking we're going down Japanese style.
  21. Hahaha. You are the kind of guy I love to fleece. Not only do you get the markets wrong for 3 years, but then you change your stance just before the market turns and get wrong again - ad infinitum..... For every winner there's a loser - go figure.... The only way to win IMO is to have faith in ones theories (fundamentals) as the market will revert to them in the long term.
  22. Downshifter, you seem to have a fairly "normal" view of the financial world. The comment above though is in my opinion a misconception that many people have. The BoE must control inflation, even when growth is at risk. Don't think that if consumer spending slows down and inflation is sustained that the BoE will be able to lower interest rates. This is often called stagflation. This is where the large broad money growth is going to come back to haunt us IMO; there is huge pent-up inflation in the system due to excessive money printing.
  23. Our economy is on the edge of collapse simply because interest rates have been too low for too long. If the BoE had lifted rates a couple of years ago and let inflation undershoot we would be in a much better position right now. Does anyone ever think about that? There is simply no way that they can come down in the near future. The only glimmer of hope for those who are heavily indebted is that they stay fairly flat. However, history tells us that this is very, very unlikely. This article is frightening because it is 180 degrees out of line. We should be getting ready to batten down the hat
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