Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Posted April 25 Share Posted April 25 "After a weaker than expected GDP reading but stronger than expected PCE Price Index, another rate cut was just priced-out." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted April 25 Share Posted April 25 It's the US's figures, not ours. We're hacking before the Fed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Posted April 25 Author Share Posted April 25 17 minutes ago, Stewy said: It's the US's figures, not ours. We're hacking before the Fed. Doesn't work like that at the moment, sadly. The US's situation will hold back cuts here and in rEurope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flat Bear Posted April 25 Share Posted April 25 15 minutes ago, Stewy said: It's the US's figures, not ours. We're hacking before the Fed. It's the US's figures, not ours That is true....................... You are grasping at straws Look, the UK CPI inflation figures for April may show a fall even although April this year has been a very inflationary month. That said we are likely to see only increases in inflation over the foreseeable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdd Posted April 25 Share Posted April 25 54 minutes ago, Flat Bear said: It's the US's figures, not ours That is true....................... You are grasping at straws Look, the UK CPI inflation figures for April may show a fall even although April this year has been a very inflationary month. That said we are likely to see only increases in inflation over the foreseeable. Based on what the troll Stewy has been posting, he intends to focus on the inflation drop next month, as though it proves him right. This is despite the fact that we on this forum, as well as the Bank of England, have long known that this drop was coming. The MPC know that this drop is largely meaningless, with inflation likely to remain a problem, which is why they haven't cut rates. Stewy just deliberately tries to troll, and he knows it. Must suck for him, having to renew his mortgage soon at the higher rate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blobsy Posted April 25 Share Posted April 25 2024 - UK BOE Base rates going forward May - 5.25% June - 5.25% Aug - 5.25% Sept - 5.25% Nov - 5.25% Dec - 5.25% 2025 Feb - 5.25% March - 5.25% May - 5.25% June - 5.25% Aug - 5.25% Sept - 5.25% Nov - 5.25% Dec - 5.25% You’re welcome ✔️🌱 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flat Bear Posted April 25 Share Posted April 25 1 hour ago, Blobsy said: 2024 - UK BOE Base rates going forward May - 5.25% June - 5.25% 5.00% Aug - 5.25% 5.00% Sept - 5.25% 5.00% Nov - 5.25% Dec - 5.25% 2025 Feb - 5.25% 5.5% March - 5.25% 5.5% May - 5.25% 5.75% June - 5.25% 5.75% Aug - 5.25% 6% Sept - 5.25% 6.25% Nov - 5.25% 6.5% Dec - 5.25% 6.5% This is is all if inflation can stay contained Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted April 25 Share Posted April 25 i have a lot of time for @Blobsy here i have been trying to get the fixed rate on my new house mortgage buttoned down for weeks and finally got it today 4.2% fixed for 5 years to me this is a STEAL i think base rate will average over 4.2% over the next five years never mind morTgage rates will base rates rise to 6% as @Flat Bear suggests? Well not in the next 18 months no I don’t think so: beyond that is guesswork really. But the idea that a tracker Rate for five years could possible average under 4.2% makes this fixed rate seem like a free chocolate bar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flat Bear Posted April 25 Share Posted April 25 1 minute ago, scottbeard said: i have a lot of time for @Blobsy here i have been trying to get the fixed rate on my new house mortgage buttoned down for weeks and finally got it today 4.2% fixed for 5 years to me this is a STEAL i think base rate will average over 4.2% over the next five years never mind morTgage rates will base rates rise to 6% as @Flat Bear suggests? Well not in the next 18 months no I don’t think so: beyond that is guesswork really. But the idea that a tracker Rate for five years could possible average under 4.2% makes this fixed rate seem like a free chocolate bar For what it is worth @scottbeard I think you have made a good decision. 4.2% is really low historically and the upside is much more likely than the downside over the next 5 years. Also you can't wait forever for house prices to determine your purchases and life options you need to get on with your life and enjoy it, otherwise you could wait forever. Well done and good luck with your new property, enjoy it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted April 25 Share Posted April 25 Just now, Flat Bear said: For what it is worth @scottbeard I think you have made a good decision. 4.2% is really low historically and the upside is much more likely than the downside over the next 5 years. Also you can't wait forever for house prices to determine your purchases and life options you need to get on with your life and enjoy it, otherwise you could wait forever. Well done and good luck with your new property, enjoy it. Thank you that’s very kind. When I bought my current house in 2011 I took a tracker mortgage because despite everyone screaming the 0.5% rates couldn’t last in begged to differ now everyone is screaming rates must come down..::again I beg to differ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HousePriceTooHigh Posted April 25 Share Posted April 25 THE GREAT (IR) STAGNATION Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 10 hours ago, cdd said: Based on what the troll Stewy has been posting, he intends to focus on the inflation drop next month, as though it proves him right. This is despite the fact that we on this forum, as well as the Bank of England, have long known that this drop was coming. Quote your post where you said this in 2023. A post that hasn't been edited, please... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddog Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 The BoE are looking for any reason to lower interest rates, and trash our currency further. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 2 hours ago, reddog said: The BoE are looking for any reason to lower interest rates, and trash our currency further. The reasons aren't exactly difficult to find. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Justice League Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 IR's and mortgage rates at 10% will sort this out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 4 minutes ago, Social Justice League said: IR's and mortgage rates at 10% will sort this out. You won't be buying a 4-bed detached with your £20k savings so give up on that idea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony_Teacake Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 13 hours ago, cdd said: Based on what the troll Stewy has been posting, he intends to focus on the inflation drop next month, as though it proves him right. This is despite the fact that we on this forum, as well as the Bank of England, have long known that this drop was coming. The MPC know that this drop is largely meaningless, with inflation likely to remain a problem, which is why they haven't cut rates. Stewy just deliberately tries to troll, and he knows it. Must suck for him, having to renew his mortgage soon at the higher rate. He is obsessed with rates dropping and you can tell he is now getting desperate. I say keep these rates elevated as I'm getting a lovely bit of interest on my savings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dreamcasting Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 3 hours ago, reddog said: The BoE are looking for any reason to lower interest rates, and trash our currency further. The Fed are also looking for any reason to lower interest rates also. The point being, if the Fed lowers rates, the UK and others will too thereby keeping the currencies aligned. For anyone trying to determine where rates go next, I'd recommend giving up. Certainly in the US, there is absolutely no reason on an economic basis why rates should be cut any time soon, however there is every reason on a political level. A huge recession in the US, engineered or not may be on the horizon, and if that comes, zirp isn't out of the question at all and Bailey will happily follow. Trying to predict interest rates is a fools game right now which is why I've stopped making predictions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 5 minutes ago, Dreamcasting said: The Fed are also looking for any reason to lower interest rates also. The point being, if the Fed lowers rates, the UK and others will too thereby keeping the currencies aligned. For anyone trying to determine where rates go next, I'd recommend giving up. Certainly in the US, there is absolutely no reason on an economic basis why rates should be cut any time soon, however there is every reason on a political level. A huge recession in the US, engineered or not may be on the horizon, and if that comes, zirp isn't out of the question at all and Bailey will happily follow. Trying to predict interest rates is a fools game right now which is why I've stopped making predictions. Yes, times are so uncertain things can turn on a sixpence......however if nothing much happens, nothing much will happen with interest rates.......sometimes better for nothing much to happen, safer that way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdd Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 6 hours ago, Stewy said: Quote your post where you said this in 2023. A post that hasn't been edited, please... I've posted about it months ago. The BoE talked about it months ago. It has been well known. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Justice League Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 3 hours ago, Stewy said: You won't be buying a 4-bed detached with your £20k savings so give up on that idea. Yeah, should easily get one for £10k. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 48 minutes ago, Social Justice League said: Yeah, should easily get one for £10k. In what scenario would 4 bed detached houses cost £10k when the average salary is £30k? that’s just silly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Justice League Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 5 minutes ago, scottbeard said: In what scenario would 4 bed detached houses cost £10k when the average salary is £30k? that’s just silly Not if we get complete financial collapse or a worldwide nuclear war. Things can turn bad in life. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 46 minutes ago, Social Justice League said: Not if we get complete financial collapse or a worldwide nuclear war. Things can turn bad in life. Right - so from your comment "should easily get one for £10k" that's what you're expecting is it?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Justice League Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 11 minutes ago, scottbeard said: Right - so from your comment "should easily get one for £10k" that's what you're expecting is it?! Definitely financial collapse, but we might avoid full on nuclear holocaust. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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