henry the king Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 Huw Pill doesn't want to cut rates. He is the chief economist. So Greene, Mann, Pill, Haskel and Ramsden will likely keep pushing for rates to stay high. That is a majority. Looks like Bailey isn't going to get the cuts he wants. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 Just wait until May when the rampant energy deflation is properly in the data 🌱 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme_biker0 Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 7 minutes ago, Stewy said: Just wait until May when the rampant energy deflation is properly in the data 🌱 May.... Which year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
henry the king Posted April 23 Author Share Posted April 23 8 minutes ago, Stewy said: Just wait until May when the rampant energy deflation is properly in the data 🌱 Huw Pill already knows that is coming. The thing they are focussed on is wage growth and the general economy. The economic data today was extremely strong suggesting rate cuts would be a bad idea. It remains to be seen and is a fluid situation but Huw Pill coming out with a hawkish tone is hugely important in my expectation of rate cuts. I previously thought maybe 3 this year. Now I am thinking 1 in November or something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 1 minute ago, Extreme_biker0 said: May.... Which year? 2024. 22nd of. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orb Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 13 minutes ago, henry the king said: Huw Pill doesn't want to cut rates. He is the chief economist. So Greene, Mann, Pill, Haskel and Ramsden will likely keep pushing for rates to stay high. That is a majority. Looks like Bailey isn't going to get the cuts he wants. They're not high. They're historically normal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 1 minute ago, Orb said: They're not high. They're historically normal. Yes but you're going back centuries. Things are different now.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dreamcasting Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 5 minutes ago, Stewy said: Yes but you're going back centuries. Things are different now.. Yes things are different now. 4.25% to 5.25% is the new 0% to 1%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony_Teacake Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 8 minutes ago, Stewy said: 2024. 22nd of. Your 2 year fix is ending soon 👌 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheChangeIsCast Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 7 minutes ago, Stewy said: Yes but you're going back centuries. Things are different now.. What makes you think that the last 15 years is the new normal, as opposed to it being a 15 year anomaly when you zoom out and look at the long term average? Genuine question by the way - I have no idea either way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellow Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 21 minutes ago, Stewy said: Just wait until May when the rampant energy deflation is properly in the data 🌱 This energy cost isn't deflating: Petrol prices on UK forecourts hit 150p a litre Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 3 minutes ago, fellow said: This energy cost isn't deflating: Petrol prices on UK forecourts hit 150p a litre Hardly any increase since early 2010s. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nero120 Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 Wouldn't it be hilarious if UK rates NEVER fall below 5% ever again! I'm sure the Argies and the Turks thought their interest rates would come crashing back down as well! Oh dear! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AAA Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 BOE should be hiking interest rates. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 6 minutes ago, nero120 said: Wouldn't it be hilarious if UK rates NEVER fall below 5% ever again! I'm sure the Argies and the Turks thought their interest rates would come crashing back down as well! Oh dear! Open market rates have been below since the middle of last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sackboii Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 24 minutes ago, Stewy said: Hardly any increase since early 2010s. Ooo ok let’s compare gas and electricity prices to early 2010 as well then… Petrol and diesel are now almost 10% higher (or even more depending on where you are) than they were at the beginning of 2024. How many litres of fuel do you think are used across the country per day, week, month ? How much do you think the average household spends on fuel for transport, versus, say, gas and electricity ? More, a bit less ? About the same ? What effect do you think this is going to have on inflation ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maghull Mike Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 24 minutes ago, AAA said: BOE should be hiking interest rates. Yes & there is a VERY Hawkish thoughts coming from the FED........ But, just like the 1970's they Lift rates & print at the same time........the political class will walk around with "WIN" badges on (Wipe inflation now) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 1 hour ago, Stewy said: Just wait until May when the rampant energy deflation is properly in the data 🌱 Just wait until energy is no longer wanted from monopoly or cartel.....those that win will get their energy from not only earth, but wind, sun......water will win, without water there is not a life....... everything in moderation........look for and decide where you want to live. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Angry Capitalist Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 There will be no rate cuts until inflation is back to 2% and stays there for at least 3 months. That probably rules out 2024 for cuts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellow Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 22 minutes ago, winkie said: Just wait until energy is no longer wanted from monopoly or cartel.....those that win will get their energy from not only earth, but wind, sun......water will win, without water there is not a life....... everything in moderation........look for and decide where you want to live. Eh? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 12 minutes ago, fellow said: Eh? Look for and decide where you want to live..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sackboii Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 24 minutes ago, winkie said: Look for and decide where you want to live..... We should all be aiming for The Good Life.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellow Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 (edited) 50 minutes ago, winkie said: Look for and decide where you want to live..... OK done that but what's that got to do with inflation, energy or interest rates? Edited April 23 by fellow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tabliski Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 4 hours ago, Stewy said: Yes but you're going back centuries. Things are different now.. if by century you mean a few decades then yes centuries Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdd Posted April 24 Share Posted April 24 6 hours ago, Stewy said: Yes but you're going back centuries. Things are different now.. The abnormalities caused by artificially low rates have had serious consequences, which are currently playing out. Low rates aren't coming back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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