henry the king Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 55 minutes ago, cdd said: U.S inflation stuck at 3-4% range, despite "high" rates. Risk of wars escalating and much higher prices. Too bad you never factor these possibilities into your theories, Stewy. Worst thing they could do is cut. That would mean they have to then go harder after assuming inflation proves sticky. That is what happened 40 years ago. They went hard on inflation. Then thought they won and cut. And then they had to go even harder the second time. History might repeat itself. They won't do cuts unless it is clear inflation is going though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bartelbe Posted April 13 Share Posted April 13 18 hours ago, Stewy said: Check in which country you and I live. Oh dear, somebody is deeply clueless about how interconnected economies are. We can't lower interest rates unless other major economies do because it would cause the pound to tank. Our imports are priced in dollars, so if the pound tanks, it would create inflation. Hence why what is happening in America matters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frederico Posted April 13 Share Posted April 13 19 hours ago, Stewy said: They've stopped the HPI and created The Plateau which is where we'll sit...until something changes... It’s not a plateau it’s a stalemate, something will be forced to give, it is in a terrible state and will take a long time to fully play out. Personally I suspect it will start to snowball properly when panic sets in. At the moment those on the edge keep being given crumbs of hope. If the promised land is an illusion then sit back and watch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frederico Posted April 13 Share Posted April 13 I think we can be reasonably confident a cut will not happen this year, (@stewy mode, I really have no clue.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted April 13 Share Posted April 13 22 minutes ago, frederico said: I think we can be reasonably confident a cut will not happen this year, (@stewy mode, I really have no clue.) Originally I thought interest rates would be cut to 5% and held for the rest of 2024. Then I thought perhaps they might get cut further to 4.5%. Now I think I’m back on my original prediction that rates will not fall below 5% this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will! Posted April 13 Share Posted April 13 56 minutes ago, bartelbe said: Oh dear, somebody is deeply clueless about how interconnected economies are. We can't lower interest rates unless other major economies do because it would cause the pound to tank. Our imports are priced in dollars, so if the pound tanks, it would create inflation. Hence why what is happening in America matters. GBP:USD 1.24. That’ll feed into import prices and thus inflation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 18 hours ago, Will! said: GBP:USD 1.24. That’ll feed into import prices and thus inflation. That's the market knowledge that we're cutting rates first. Inflation has been quelled. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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