mynamehere Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 21 minutes ago, Pmax2020 said: Well, Edinburgh is hardly as booming despite what some will continue to report. https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/133809080#/?channel=RES_BUY Bought for 634k in 2019… now a fixed price of 650k. In other words, the owners have accepted they’re going to lose tens of thousands ££££s. That could end up being a really big loss… a four year loss!! I noticed this one, always interesting to see fixed price stuff appear, as the offers over system is so opaque. It's not technically a loss though to sell for more than you bought for, though I get your point. Seems a bit of an outlier though, this one in Cramond has HR 625, sold for 450 in 2019, and has gone to closing within 7 days. https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/136286522? So it does seem to vary a lot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pmax2020 Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 39 minutes ago, mynamehere said: I noticed this one, always interesting to see fixed price stuff appear, as the offers over system is so opaque. It's not technically a loss though to sell for more than you bought for, though I get your point. Seems a bit of an outlier though, this one in Cramond has HR 625, sold for 450 in 2019, and has gone to closing within 7 days. https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/136286522? So it does seem to vary a lot. The stamp duty alone is almost 40k so it’s very much a loss in the context of only living there a short time. There’s a 2 year trend forming! Here’s another, bought for 460k two years ago. Shaping up to be a loss. https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/135901136 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mynamehere Posted June 27, 2023 Author Share Posted June 27, 2023 (edited) 16 minutes ago, Pmax2020 said: The stamp duty alone is almost 40k so it’s very much a loss in the context of only living there a short time. There’s a 2 year trend forming! Here’s another, bought for 460k two years ago. Shaping up to be a loss. https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/135901136 Odd, not showing up in land registry. Usually rightmove is the one lacking data. HR 485, I doubt they'll get that now. With stamp duty that must be something like a 40k loss vs renting. You really do need decent gains to keep ahead of scottish stamp duty... This kind of flat is going to struggle. It's not something a growing family is going to consider, it's not really tourist hotspot. Too flash for students. Definitely some softening happening. But whether it translates to houses we actually want to buy ,is the big question. Edited June 27, 2023 by mynamehere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mynamehere Posted July 7, 2023 Author Share Posted July 7, 2023 Some interesting charts in today's rettie blog on edinburgh vs glasgow Supply is up YoY in Edinburgh, but down in Glasgow Demand following similar pattern. Currently hometrack data shows glasgow asking prices falling harder, which conflicts with this. Edinburgh asking for more. Average rent now above mortgage They are predicting 5% down in 2023, more modest 2.5% in 2024. Seems wrong way round to me, given we are currently on +2% YoY rates after relatively low rates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pmax2020 Posted July 7, 2023 Share Posted July 7, 2023 Hmmm…. I’m not convinced prices are rising anywhere in Scotland. Our year on year figure is meant to be +2% but I think that’s BS. I posted a bunch of properties facing losses in another thread and today I spotted one those was reduced even further today. I really don’t believe Edinburgh City is bucking that trend… Convenient too that Rightmove sold data is 2.5 months late!!! No data for April/May yet. https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/135974717 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted July 7, 2023 Share Posted July 7, 2023 6 minutes ago, Pmax2020 said: Hmmm…. I’m not convinced prices are rising anywhere in Scotland. Our year on year figure is meant to be +2% but I think that’s BS. I posted a bunch of properties facing losses in another thread and today I spotted one those was reduced even further today. I really don’t believe Edinburgh City is bucking that trend… Convenient too that Rightmove sold data is 2.5 months late!!! No data for April/May yet. https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/135974717 Just a shiny council house with a tuft of grass at the back. 330k? Not for me thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted July 7, 2023 Share Posted July 7, 2023 On 27/06/2023 at 18:23, mynamehere said: Odd, not showing up in land registry. Usually rightmove is the one lacking data. HR 485, I doubt they'll get that now. With stamp duty that must be something like a 40k loss vs renting. You really do need decent gains to keep ahead of scottish stamp duty... This kind of flat is going to struggle. It's not something a growing family is going to consider, it's not really tourist hotspot. Too flash for students. Definitely some softening happening. But whether it translates to houses we actually want to buy ,is the big question. 465k? Nah. All the premium is just because it is "Morningside", total nonsense. The problem Edinburgh has is that as interest rates rise world wide less people from worldwide are going to come over to ask what bus they need to get to the Castle, that has a big knock on effect for the city and business, not sure if that affects this flat or no, but also not sure who would want to live in this flat at that price? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timm Posted July 7, 2023 Share Posted July 7, 2023 Any idea how St Andrews is doing? (Family connection) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pmax2020 Posted July 7, 2023 Share Posted July 7, 2023 This is literally the first property listed on RM when I searched Edinburgh a few minutes ago. Bought 2 months ago and back on already!!!! https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/136989851 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mynamehere Posted July 7, 2023 Author Share Posted July 7, 2023 4 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said: 465k? Nah. All the premium is just because it is "Morningside", total nonsense. The problem Edinburgh has is that as interest rates rise world wide less people from worldwide are going to come over to ask what bus they need to get to the Castle, that has a big knock on effect for the city and business, not sure if that affects this flat or no, but also not sure who would want to live in this flat at that price? Average buyer of this flat would be couple of 30 something professionals just about to pop their first kid out, and will have to tap their folks for an extra 100k so they can buy a double upper over the road. This area is driven more by families and retirees. It's a posh village. Tourist tax does play into prices by nibbling at supply, but not in the same way as city centre flats by the castle etc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pmax2020 Posted July 7, 2023 Share Posted July 7, 2023 11 minutes ago, Timm said: Any idea how St Andrews is doing? (Family connection) Hard to tell because it’s a small place with not a lot coming to market. I know St Andrews really well though because I was there at the same time as a royal 😉 I spotted this. Jeez, imagine building a crappy wee outbuilding in your garden and trying to sell it for 220k!!! https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/135486347 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted July 7, 2023 Share Posted July 7, 2023 7 minutes ago, mynamehere said: Average buyer of this flat would be couple of 30 something professionals just about to pop their first kid out, and will have to tap their folks for an extra 100k so they can buy a double upper over the road. This area is driven more by families and retirees. It's a posh village. Tourist tax does play into prices by nibbling at supply, but not in the same way as city centre flats by the castle etc I would say the smarter areas of Edinburgh are driven by cheap credit and London equity, both getting switched off, and a number of the jobs for folks in the more down to earth areas driven by tourist dollars, I see it as a perfect storm to burst one of the biggest property bubbles in the UK. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mynamehere Posted July 7, 2023 Author Share Posted July 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said: I would say the smarter areas of Edinburgh are driven by cheap credit and London equity, both getting switched off, and a number of the jobs for folks in the more down to earth areas driven by tourist dollars, I see it as a perfect storm to burst one of the biggest property bubbles in the UK. Many who buy in this area work in finance, tech, law in Edinburgh, there is certainly there is a link to London equity as job market overlaps a bit. Lot's of English buyers, but many of them have been here since uni. On credit, I don't think especially so. Put it this way, I think it's very rare to buy with 90% LTV in this area. Impossible to anyway when average HR premium is over 10% or was. Tourism definitely helps drive up the prices overall, but it's not what drives the premium in this area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mynamehere Posted July 8, 2023 Author Share Posted July 8, 2023 14 hours ago, Pmax2020 said: Hmmm…. I’m not convinced prices are rising anywhere in Scotland. Our year on year figure is meant to be +2% but I think that’s BS. I posted a bunch of properties facing losses in another thread and today I spotted one those was reduced even further today. I really don’t believe Edinburgh City is bucking that trend… Convenient too that Rightmove sold data is 2.5 months late!!! No data for April/May yet. https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/135974717 I just noticed this in the halifax report 'In Scotland, prices were down slightly on the year (-0.1%, average house price of £201,774), but nonetheless significant in being the first annual contraction in property prices in the last three years.' Latest ROS land registry entry in my postcode is 30-06-2023 So likely a Rightmove issue Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pmax2020 Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 Exciting times. There are now dozens of unsold houses in my search area that are on for the same or less price than they were bought for in 2021/2022. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AThirdWay Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 16 hours ago, Timm said: Any idea how St Andrews is doing? (Family connection) St Andrews is holding up quite well, I imagine, as previously suggested, because of lack of supply. North of the Tay, I'm seeing a lot of stuff coming 'back on the market' or going to fixed price. A sure sign that deals are falling through and some are struggling to get 'acceptable' offers. Not sure why deals are falling through, whether it's mortgage offers being withdrawn or buyers getting cold feet? We're slightly different up here in that if you get far enough down the purchasing process and pull out, the vendor can sue for any extra costs... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pmax2020 Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 I’m rarely seeing deals fall through by way of property re-appearing. I am however seeing a significant proportion of listings being those that only sold within the last 2 years. Some of which sold a matter of months ago, and to me that can only be fixed rates coming to an end, and rendering the places unaffordable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AThirdWay Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, Pmax2020 said: I’m rarely seeing deals fall through by way of property re-appearing. I am however seeing a significant proportion of listings being those that only sold within the last 2 years. Some of which sold a matter of months ago, and to me that can only be fixed rates coming to an end, and rendering the places unaffordable. In which area? I count nine in seven days around here... https://www.tspc.co.uk/Search/Property--added-in-the-last-7-days Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pmax2020 Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 (edited) I look as north as Perth, down to the west side of Edinburgh, and to the east side of Glasgow. I’d consider moving to any area within that triangle. So the central belt, clacks, west fife etc. I’d even go Scottish Borders for a really good school. I just went on RM and searched Dundee +5 miles. Right away I found a few properties that’ve only been owned for a matter of months… https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/137013296 (415k Dec 2022) https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/137043467 (325k in 2021) https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/136928864 (201k July 2021) All of these could easily see a loss over 1-2 years and these are just examples in a search criteria that only gave me 18 properties…. Edited July 8, 2023 by Pmax2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AThirdWay Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 53 minutes ago, Pmax2020 said: I look as north as Perth, down to the west side of Edinburgh, and to the east side of Glasgow. I’d consider moving to any area within that triangle. So the central belt, clacks, west fife etc. I’d even go Scottish Borders for a really good school. I just went on RM and searched Dundee +5 miles. Right away I found a few properties that’ve only been owned for a matter of months… https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/137013296 (415k Dec 2022) https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/137043467 (325k in 2021) https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/136928864 (201k July 2021) All of these could easily see a loss over 1-2 years and these are just examples in a search criteria that only gave me 18 properties…. Two out of those three, probably three out of three, are listed at o/o the home report valuation. Hardly surprising behaviour from your average seller, they'll rely on the 'professionals' to guide them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 19 hours ago, mynamehere said: Many who buy in this area work in finance, tech, law in Edinburgh, there is certainly there is a link to London equity as job market overlaps a bit. Lot's of English buyers, but many of them have been here since uni. On credit, I don't think especially so. Put it this way, I think it's very rare to buy with 90% LTV in this area. Impossible to anyway when average HR premium is over 10% or was. Tourism definitely helps drive up the prices overall, but it's not what drives the premium in this area. All totally exposed to any big downturn, I have lived in Morningside a couple of times, large chunk is just tenement flats with some really posh stuff scattered towards the Grange and over to Merchiston. The whole "Edinburgh Premium" is a bubble based on cheap money at multiple levels IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pmax2020 Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 1 hour ago, AThirdWay said: Two out of those three, probably three out of three, are listed at o/o the home report valuation. Hardly surprising behaviour from your average seller, they'll rely on the 'professionals' to guide them. There’s too many properties being listed like this; where the margin is already tight. We’re seeing the first wave of proper losses now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habeas Domus Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 How in the world did this get planning permission? https://espc.com/property/7-13-bruntsfield-avenue-bruntsfield-edinburgh-eh10-4ep/36179155?sid=136921 Built into the communal roof space, all windows are in the ceiling - no views of the outside, no curtains or blinds so enjoy waking up at 5am with the sunrise! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 (edited) 3 hours ago, Habeas Domus said: How in the world did this get planning permission? https://espc.com/property/7-13-bruntsfield-avenue-bruntsfield-edinburgh-eh10-4ep/36179155?sid=136921 Built into the communal roof space, all windows are in the ceiling - no views of the outside, no curtains or blinds so enjoy waking up at 5am with the sunrise! Will be interesting to follow this one, I don`t think it will sell for 300k now, a year ago some diddy would have bought it definitely. Edited July 8, 2023 by dances with sheeple Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teal77 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 how is Glasgow doing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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