Offices at 25% capacity across the UK

[NoHPCinTheUK]

This is from the FT 

https://www.ft.com/content/5ed49b8a-6c69-418c-9a26-7f43a99b1d1f

If the trend continues I wonder how much these 200m high glass cylinders will be worth without tenants and for how long firms will pay top £ for these square feet. 
 

Meanwhile, I’m starting to see more and more job adverts like this one below on LinkedIn 

https://uk.indeed.com/m/viewjob?jk=84fa2f7c37d5bf9e&from=serp&prevUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fuk.indeed.com%2Fm%2Fjobs%3Fq%3DSoftware%2BEngineer%2BHome%2BWorking

For this one Siemens would hire someone working remotely in England, Spain, Italy, France, Hungary etc. 

https://uk.indeed.com/m/viewjob?jk=8f05eea86e22169c&from=serp

 

My point of view is: 

Cities like London are now ******ed. I guess the only way now to keep the centre alive is to go fully Venice and turn it into a huge Disneyland for the tourists? 
 

I live in London on a 60k salary and paying £1700 per month for a 2 bed shoebox in Ealing? No thanks, I’ll take 50k and live somewhere else, probably close to my family that can help with kids too, saving thousands of pounds per year in childcare? 

Am I a skilled engineer or professional from EE, Spain, Italy? I can work for Siemens in my own country, from home? Maybe I’d go for it. 

[shlomo]

4 minutes ago, NoHPCinTheUK said:

This is from the FT 

https://www.ft.com/content/5ed49b8a-6c69-418c-9a26-7f43a99b1d1f

If the trend continues I wonder how much these 200m high glass cylinders will be worth without tenants and for how long firms will pay top £ for these square feet. 
 

Meanwhile, I’m starting to see more and more job adverts like this one below on LinkedIn 

https://uk.indeed.com/m/viewjob?jk=84fa2f7c37d5bf9e&from=serp&prevUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fuk.indeed.com%2Fm%2Fjobs%3Fq%3DSoftware%2BEngineer%2BHome%2BWorking

For this one Siemens would hire someone working remotely in England, Spain, Italy, France, Hungary etc. 

https://uk.indeed.com/m/viewjob?jk=8f05eea86e22169c&from=serp

 

My point of view is: 

Cities like London are now ******ed. I guess the only way now to keep the centre alive is to go fully Venice and turn it into a huge Disneyland for the tourists? 
 

I live in London on a 60k salary and paying £1700 per month for a 2 bed shoebox in Ealing? No thanks, I’ll take 50k and live somewhere else, probably close to my family that can help with kids too, saving thousands of pounds per year in childcare? 

Am I a skilled engineer or professional from EE, Spain, Italy? I can work for Siemens in my own country, from home? Maybe I’d go for it. 

The world of work has changed, covid has affected the WFH culture making it normal

Houses in other areas will go up in price

[NoHPCinTheUK]

This is exactly what a friend of mine just did. They have put their 2 bed on the market, wife is 8 months pregnant and they’re moving back to Devon where her parents live. She’s been WFH since the pandemic and he’s also in the office once every fortnight. 
I guess a lot of couples in their same situation will make similar arrangements. From my personal experience the only ones pushing to work in the office are fresh graduates/interns: this is usually their first job and they want the office experience of course. Also they want to spend all their money in London, as every 20ish years old would do. 
People with kids…different story here. 

[cbathpc]

It's really interesting the work from home debate, in my lifetime it's the first time I've really seen employees have power. 

I've said elsewhere on here, if it was my business and my money, there is no way I would allow fully remote work to be the norm. I've no idea how it will work long term in big orgs when your apprentice/juniors are not learning on the job anymore. It's so easy for seniors to hide away now.

We're obviously not going back to 5 days a week in the office, and how justifiable is it to keep an office open for people popping in 1-2 times per week at best? 

Interestingly a lot of the big players in tech, google, apple etc are making people come back. Normally they lead and others follow, I wonder if that will happen here 

[Saving For a Space Ship]

12 minutes ago, NoHPCinTheUK said:

 

My point of view is: 

Cities like London are now ******ed. I guess the only way now to keep the centre alive is to go fully Venice and turn it into a huge Disneyland for the tourists? 
 

 

Its going like venice anyway

Sea Level Rise Projection Map – London

https://earth.org/data_visualization/sea-level-rise-by-the-end-of-the-century-london/

[NoHPCinTheUK]

2 minutes ago, shlomo said:

The world of work has changed, covid has affected the WFH culture making it normal

Houses in other areas will go up in price

What do you think will be the effect in cities like London, Paris, NY etc? As I’ve said I think they will become major tourists spots, with large areas empty of people. Maybe they will also turn into something like Las Vegas, where you’d go only for big conference or for some client meetings. Or, we will see industries coming back from the East so these cities will go back to industrial agglomerates 2.0? 

[winkie]

Food for thought......technology and global communication enhancements and improvements, reliability, safety and security will see change in the status quo of the old way of doing things, progression into the future.....we can't have non productive rent collection winning over real production and growth using mind, body and energy......make work pay, make work worth working for.....not wealth driven by the renting of everything......

[MancTom]

6 minutes ago, cbathpc said:

It's really interesting the work from home debate, in my lifetime it's the first time I've really seen employees have power. 

I've said elsewhere on here, if it was my business and my money, there is no way I would allow fully remote work to be the norm. I've no idea how it will work long term in big orgs when your apprentice/juniors are not learning on the job anymore. It's so easy for seniors to hide away now.

 

WFH should not mean hiding away.

I have regular contact with all junior people working on my projects - by email, by messaging apps, in video conferences with others and even sometimes in person for a coffee (because you can't pick up random concerns so much when focussed on a specific issue in a project). Though the latter is only possible for some, because e.g Australia is too far to go for a coffee

[NoHPCinTheUK]

3 minutes ago, cbathpc said:

It's really interesting the work from home debate, in my lifetime it's the first time I've really seen employees have power. 

I've said elsewhere on here, if it was my business and my money, there is no way I would allow fully remote work to be the norm. I've no idea how it will work long term in big orgs when your apprentice/juniors are not learning on the job anymore. It's so easy for seniors to hide away now.

We're obviously not going back to 5 days a week in the office, and how justifiable is it to keep an office open for people popping in 1-2 times per week at best? 

Interestingly a lot of the big players in tech, google, apple etc are making people come back. Normally they lead and others follow, I wonder if that will happen here 

These big firms usually have billions of real estate sitting on their balance sheet. The new Google’s HQ in KingsX is huge. No wonder they want people there. 
Other firms, without fancy offices, like Siemens (still big players tho) might find it useful to go fully remote. 

With remote working your potential pools of candidate is an entire continent as long as the broadband is good. Some people might be shocked learning that a grad from the north or somewhere in Europe had the same skills as someone from Imperial or Oxbridge. 

[cbathpc]

1 minute ago, MancTom said:

WFH should not mean hiding away.

I have regular contact with all junior people working on my projects - by email, by messaging apps, in video conferences with others and even sometimes in person for a coffee (because you can't pick up random concerns so much when focussed on a specific issue in a project). Though the latter is only possible for some, because e.g Australia is too far to go for a coffee

I agree it shouldn't, but that doesn't mean much. I think thats where the key problem lies for me, it depends on trust and as much as people bleat on about how trustworthy they are, we know by and large people are not. It's a slippery slope, that 5 minute skive in the morning, after a year of wfh becomes an hour.. your lunch hour soon becomes lunch 2 hours. We've all seen it, but because people want to keep wfh a blind eye gets turned. 

[winkie]

When working in an office got the same few bods to converse with, not always people that want to be there....on-line can do business with the rest of the world, see, speak, read and write, study and learn, can even translate.....opens up many new horizons.

[shlomo]

8 minutes ago, NoHPCinTheUK said:

What do you think will be the effect in cities like London, Paris, NY etc? As I’ve said I think they will become major tourists spots, with large areas empty of people. Maybe they will also turn into something like Las Vegas, where you’d go only for big conference or for some client meetings. Or, we will see industries coming back from the East so these cities will go back to industrial agglomerates 2.0? 

They would not need to as big or in another words the size is too big compared to the money coming into support them

I work in a company that has an office I would consider managing this office in a cheaper location like a third world country like the Philipines or Gambia or argentina  if my kids were grown up, all i need is good internet and a small office I am sure I could do it for less than half the cost than inthe UK

[shlomo]

11 minutes ago, MancTom said:

WFH should not mean hiding away.

 

Why not, you want work done to a certain standard making sure you get bums on seats is not going to affect your profit

[NoHPCinTheUK]

8 minutes ago, cbathpc said:

I agree it shouldn't, but that doesn't mean much. I think thats where the key problem lies for me, it depends on trust and as much as people bleat on about how trustworthy they are, we know by and large people are not. It's a slippery slope, that 5 minute skive in the morning, after a year of wfh becomes an hour.. your lunch hour soon becomes lunch 2 hours. We've all seen it, but because people want to keep wfh a blind eye gets turned. 

Do you really care? 2 hours lunch break is the norm in France and Spain. All that matters is the bottom line at the end of the year. If it’s fine let them have a 3 hours lunch break if that’s what they want. 

[winkie]

5 minutes ago, cbathpc said:

I agree it shouldn't, but that doesn't mean much. I think thats where the key problem lies for me, it depends on trust and as much as people bleat on about how trustworthy they are, we know by and large people are not. It's a slippery slope, that 5 minute skive in the morning, after a year of wfh becomes an hour.. your lunch hour soon becomes lunch 2 hours. We've all seen it, but because people want to keep wfh a blind eye gets turned. 

Speak for yourself and own experience....targets, reach the target, exceed the target and reward accordingly....micro management fails....WFH or working local means growth can be generated and redistributed locally.....middle nonproductive managers are at the greatest risk of being made redundant, that is why not all would  support it.....like rent collectors that feed from a local workforce that can't afford to live where they are told to work.

[NoHPCinTheUK]

7 minutes ago, shlomo said:

They would not need to as big or in another words the size is too big compared to the money coming into support them

I work in a company that has an office I would consider managing this office in a cheaper location like a third world country like the Philipines or Gambia or argentina  if my kids were grown up, all i need is good internet and a small office I am sure I could do it for less than half the cost than inthe UK

Interesting point as you quoted countries where I wouldn’t want to live. 
We will probably see enormous pressure for councils and governments to brand their cities and countries like safe places, with great quality of life etc. Maybe in 10 years we won’t move to places where the jobs are but somewhere which is beautiful? 
 

What’s going to happen to all those multibillion super scheme 500k for a 1 bed 30 minutes from Victoria in the middle of a deprived area without a sense of community? If you remove the commute factor, why would someone move there? 

[shlomo]

@MancTom

I want to make you an offer you have an Office in London it costs £200k per year to run, I have been your employee for over 10 years  I make you an offer that I awnt to relocate to a third world country and I wil open an office for you and I could do the same work or slightly better or slightly worse I want £60k do you take me up on it (you can offer less within reason)

[adarmo]

Offices are mostly empty but they still need surge capacity to hold large meetings and have team days so I don't see vast swathes of square footage being handed back to LLs. 

We've been aske dot go back 2-3 days a week from 1 July and that's prompted a lot of discussions with managers, internal moves and even resignations as some have relocated. I think lockdowns accelerated a trend of remote working by maybe 5 years? 

Will probably go back to a hybrid set up of flex office/home working. At the moment I'm free to decide where I work.

I don't think London is screwed either. If anything there'll be new life breathed into it. I'm no fan but millions go there straight out of uni to start careers or have fun (or both). Locked in a slave box for two years isn't any fun assuming you were obeying the BS rules, but there's so much to do normally that it doesn't matter. 

[adarmo]

4 minutes ago, shlomo said:

@MancTom

I want to make you an offer you have an Office in London it costs £200k per year to run, I have been your employee for over 10 years  I make you an offer that I awnt to relocate to a third world country and I wil open an office for you and I could do the same work or slightly better or slightly worse I want £60k do you take me up on it (you can offer less within reason)

Sounds great mate. What happens when you quit/retire/get ill/die? Where do I find a well educated and known quantity of a workforce to do what you do? 

I'm a precious CEO and I don't fancy visiting said country to check in either. 

[winkie]

15 minutes ago, shlomo said:

They would not need to as big or in another words the size is too big compared to the money coming into support them

I work in a company that has an office I would consider managing this office in a cheaper location like a third world country like the Philipines or Gambia or argentina  if my kids were grown up, all i need is good internet and a small office I am sure I could do it for less than half the cost than inthe UK

Excellent infrastructure, good roads and rail, safe and secure demographic with rule of law, human rights, good governance place where homes and health are obtainable for all local working people, a quality of life.....where the sense of community is good, people lookout for one another, where they are not judged or feared by how they look or talk but how they act towards others......5G communication of five bars....five stars.

[shlomo]

2 minutes ago, adarmo said:

Sounds great mate. What happens when you quit/retire/get ill/die? Where do I find a well educated and known quantity of a workforce to do what you do? 

I'm a precious CEO and I don't fancy visiting said country to check in either. 

I open a company but you own it, you have all the passwords and storage could be on the cloud no business is permanent 

[NoHPCinTheUK]

5 minutes ago, adarmo said:

Offices are mostly empty but they still need surge capacity to hold large meetings and have team days so I don't see vast swathes of square footage being handed back to LLs. 

We've been aske dot go back 2-3 days a week from 1 July and that's prompted a lot of discussions with managers, internal moves and even resignations as some have relocated. I think lockdowns accelerated a trend of remote working by maybe 5 years? 

Will probably go back to a hybrid set up of flex office/home working. At the moment I'm free to decide where I work.

I don't think London is screwed either. If anything there'll be new life breathed into it. I'm no fan but millions go there straight out of uni to start careers or have fun (or both). Locked in a slave box for two years isn't any fun assuming you were obeying the BS rules, but there's so much to do normally that it doesn't matter. 

I don’t see how firms paying square footage for 100 people can continue to be asleep at the wheel and not realising they actually need 1/3 of that? 

[shlomo]

3 minutes ago, winkie said:

Excellent infrastructure, good roads and rail, safe and secure demographic with rule of law, human rights, good governance place where homes and health are obtainable for all local working people, a quality of life.....where the sense of community is good, people lookout for one another, where they are not judged or feared by how they look or talk but how they act towards others......5G communication of five bars....five stars.

Let’s be honest no where on this planet fits those characteristics but some come close

[NoHPCinTheUK]

2 minutes ago, shlomo said:

Let’s be honest no where on this planet fits those characteristics but some come close

South Wales come really close. Places in the south of France and Spain also tick all the boxes. If you know the local language of course. 

Edited April 27, 2022 by NoHPCinTheUK

[adarmo]

2 minutes ago, shlomo said:

I open a company but you own it, you have all the passwords and storage could be on the cloud no business is permanent 

It seems like I'll just ask you to work from home and shut the office. 

Paying you in Kenyan Shillings creates a tax liability for me and also creates a permeant establishment. I have another set of laws to abide by. It's a lot more work. If the work you're doing is critical then I don't want that out of my control. If it's not crucial I should have already optimised it for costs.