How Long Could/would The Coming Recession Last ?

[Perfectionist]

OK so I guess this is the year the shit will be hitting the fan ..... unemployment up, business bankruptcies up, etc etc .....

Will things take 18 months to turn around or (considering the size of the problems) take 18 years ??

On a slightly differant note ..... could a downturn in the economy actually help stabilise the state of the nation in terms of wages, rich/poor divide, north/south divide etc etc ??

I'm thinking that for every major chainstore that goes bust - surely a few smaller independent local shops will spring up as there would still be custom out there and they can run at a much lower margin/volume than the big boys ever could ??

Would the ever increasing "out of town" retail parks and huge shopping malls be replaced with small family run businesses ??

Could the power house corporations who need huge profits and infinite growth to survive, be slowly humbled and maybe even exterminated ..... ??

[deus ex machina]

No.

[SarahBell]

Whether this recession on its way will continue straight into the dark ages is another question. We've seen how vulnerable europe is to gas issues and there'll be a lot more of that to come.

Recession brings job losses which will in turn bring about forced sales. But those people will need to live somewhere - but will people be able to rent on benefits given that real social housing is on the decline?

Who'll live in the repossessed houses? Will there be enough people with an income or cash to buy properties. It might mean established landlords buy more houses.

[The Masked Tulip]

What will happen will be what always happens in recessions in the UK - the South East will have 2 years of recession whilst the rest of the country grinds to a halt. The South East will begin to come out of it and prosper whilst places like the North, Wales, parts of the Midlands, etc, will remain in economic slump for many years after - perhaps some places will never recover as we may not see a boom like we have seen in recent years in our lifetimes again.

[Minos]

What will happen will be what always happens in recessions in the UK - the South East will have 2 years of recession whilst the rest of the country grinds to a halt. The South East will begin to come out of it and prosper whilst places like the North, Wales, parts of the Midlands, etc, will remain in economic slump for many years after - perhaps some places will never recover as we may not see a boom like we have seen in recent years in our lifetimes again.

I think you are on the right track.

We have an ageing population. Therefore the goods and services we produce will gradually deminish. This process could be slowed down by encouraging people to work long through incentives, or loading them up with massive debts which force them to continue working long past the time they would like to stop.

We could come up with bright new ideas which we could trade around the world in return for other goods, but what stops other countries from doing the same things for themselves ? Other countries could provide us with products but in return for what ?

Personally, I think that whatever happens we are going to have to get used to a gradually declining standard of living because the boomers are going to start winding down towards the end of this decade and beyond. We are either going to have to work longer/harder/smarter to maintain standards of living and support the retiring population. None of these prospects make me feel that confident.

In terms of house prices, I think this means that they either go out with a bang or a long slide, but the endless upward path has got to come to an end. Although if we allow more people into the country to live/work, maybe we can sustain things a bit longer.

The hot money is already investing in the growing economies because that's where all the wealth will be in the future - size/age of populations etc.

Hopefully I'm wrong.

[MarkG]

The hot money is already investing in the growing economies because that's where all the wealth will be in the future - size/age of populations etc.

Indeed. Absent massive political and economic change -- which is probably impossible in a democracy -- it's all downhill from here for the UK for the next fifty years or so... as the young and skilled people emigrate, Britain will become one big retirement home with a few castles for rich Chinese tourists to visit.

[E Powell]

No recession but a depression is coming!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[right_freds_dead]

pot noodle = pock noogle.

strawberrys = strawbuddys

kettle = keckle

[Mrliberty]

Won't we just have a mass of buy BTL property investors and recent FTBers with massive amounts of negative equity going bankrupt so they can wipe the slate clean? The latest bandwagon for them perhaps.......

[RichM]

Read any Mark Steyn (steynonline.com) if you're interested in this phenomenon. Russis and much of Europe have it worse than us though.

[Mushroom]

The more free and the greater the rewards for a population the more energetic, resourceful and productive it is. Ask yourself, are we seeing greater freedom or more restrictions in this country?

Micro management of a society will not work but that is the course this Government has set and believes in.

If this Government continues in power I believe there will be a recession from which there may never be a recovery. More and more will be drawn into working or non working for the State with more and more "controls" being put into place. That is the point of and the reason for ID cards.

[Mrliberty]

It is one of the reasons for ID cards. This country is going through the biggest program of social control that a western democracy has ever seen. NuLabour has introduced 700 new laws since it came to power. Thats introducing new crimes at a rate 10 times faster than any other administration in Parliaments history.

See my other post;

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...pic=21382&st=80

There are also a bunch of quite enlightened gentlemen who have got together and formed a non-partisan, cross party lobbying group, now being taken quite seriously. Essential reading for our times. You may wish to point your browsers to;

http://www.no2id.net

Over 11,000 people have already pledged to refuse to register for an ID card and contributed a tenner each to a fighting fund for legal defense.

[dogbox]

Recession? Naaaaa.

Us Brits are investing in equities and property abroad, both companies and individuals. We are well placed to use our relative high wealth in order to participate in world growth.

Also the new era of massive global growth lead by Russia, China, The baltics, Brazil, India and others will enormously benefit us.

Ka - ching.

[Guest magnoliawalls]

Recession? Naaaaa.

Us Brits are investing in equities and property abroad, both companies and individuals. We are well placed to use our relative high wealth in order to participate in world growth.

Also the new era of massive global growth lead by Russia, China, The baltics, Brazil, India and others will enormously benefit us.

Ka - ching.

If you accept that wealth is an abundance of valuable material possessions or resources - there is only so much to go around on this finite planet. As the balance of wealth and power move east, our standard of living (measured in terms of material goods) will drop.

Maybe MarkG is right and we will be able to obtain our energy through nuclear fusion and will be able to mine other planets to access their resources. Otherwise the future for our children and grandchildren does not look too bright.

[MarkG]

Us Brits are investing in equities and property abroad, both companies and individuals. We are well placed to use our relative high wealth in order to participate in world growth.

'Relative high wealth' won't last long when the pound collapses because we don't produce anything that the rest of the world wants.

And, in any case, why would wealthy people choose to live in the UK if all their investments are abroad? What kind of fool pays 40% tax when they could move to somewhere like Switzerland and pay pretty much nothing?

The idea that we can all just sit back and make a nice living from buying shares in the Chinese companies that actually do all the work to make things is laughable. If there's nothing that the Chinese want from Britain, then our 'relative high wealth' will rapidly become 'relative high poverty'.

[dogbox]

'Relative high wealth' won't last long when the pound collapses because we don't produce anything that the rest of the world wants.

The idea that we can all just sit back and make a nice living from buying shares in the Chinese companies that actually do all the work to make things is laughable.

1.) We are in huge demand. From hospital building projects in Indonesia to training troops, insurance, film specialists, environmental studies (on behalve of the world), dealing with Nuclear waste transport, testing tall buildings, designing games, football, F1, World Strongest Man, Music, building and runiing schools in China, consulting on regulation and regulatory frameworks, legal expertise, etc.

We are a huge magnet for foreigners wanting to live here - I wonder why?

2.) Of course you can buy shares & property globally and make money.

Its no different to the pioneering B2L who bought in Mnchester in the mid nineties.

Cmon guys get buying, you'll missout again I promise, I really really promise.

[Mushroom]

The truth is probably that the % of "Brits" investing abroad is relatively small.

The majority of the population is unlikely to benefit greatly and certainly not enough to fund their retirements.

The only way that wealth earned elsewhere, either by companies or individuals, can benefit the majority in the UK is if much of that wealth is spent here or taken by taxes for the Government to spend. Now I'm sure that at least companies in such a position are very adept at managing tax liabilities.

That sounds too much like "trickle down" theory to me and I thought that had been discredited.

[Catch22]

I wrote this back in May last year shortly after joining this forum, and I see only confirmation of that view point

Catch22

post May 30 2005, 09:58 AM

Post #12

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Imagine for a moment house's were half their price they are today, people would be moving. Have more disposable income to spend on carpets, beds, plasma tv's whatever, and as our economy is consumer based it would be OK [well as OK as a consumer based economy can be, and that's another story]

However the reality is, there will always be Boom and Bust, because Markets always revert to overbought and oversold positions, at some point in their cycles. Every thing in life is cyclical, Spring Summer Autumn Winter....what goes around comes around.

May I say IMHO, if you have been around since the end of the fifties, you have been very fortunate to witness the best of what Britain has to offer. I reckon its all down hill from here on in for the masses. Wealth creation and growth is drifting ever Eastwards at an alarming rate. Corporate Profits chase wealth producing opportunities, and the UK is like a worked out tin mine, ever diminishing returns compounded by ever increasing overheads. Yes there will be many individual success stories, but that will not be reflective of the majorities lot.

Edited January 6, 2006 by Catch22

[Mushroom]

1.) We are in huge demand. From hospital building projects in Indonesia to training troops, insurance, film specialists, environmental studies (on behalve of the world), dealing with Nuclear waste transport, testing tall buildings, designing games, football, F1, World Strongest Man, Music, building and runiing schools in China, consulting on regulation and regulatory frameworks, legal expertise, etc.

We are a huge magnet for foreigners wanting to live here - I wonder why?

2.) Of course you can buy shares & property globally and make money.

Its no different to the pioneering B2L who bought in Mnchester in the mid nineties.

Cmon guys get buying, you'll missout again I promise, I really really promise.

I don't disagree with you with regard to those who have the means.

I don't believe it can be a long term strategy for the country.

You make assumptions that the demands for our expertise will never decline. It will as those we assist now "learn the ropes".

To take one of your examples, Formula One teams. Some of those domiciled here have said that they might relocate to the Far East as the focus of the sport moves to there and the Near East. They are also concerned that further "environmental" restrictions on the sport in the West may be enacted and that might also influence their relocation.

The motor manufacturers are the driving force in F1 now and they will want to be and promoting their wares where the best markets are.

Edited January 6, 2006 by Mushroom

[dogbox]

The truth is probably that the % of "Brits" investing abroad is relatively small.

The majority of the population is unlikely to benefit greatly and certainly not enough to fund their retirements.

The only way that wealth earned elsewhere, either by companies or individuals, can benefit the majority in the UK is if much of that wealth is spent here or taken by taxes for the Government to spend. Now I'm sure that at least companies in such a position are very adept at managing tax liabilities.

That sounds too much like "trickle down" theory to me and I thought that had been discredited.

14% of Irish own abroad and thats expected to rocket. The rest of the UK is catching up.

A SERIOUS PREDICTION I WANT YOU ALL TO REMEMBER;

I guarantee you that investing abroad in THE new way to make money and in 5 years will be huge business.

Demand is immense.

[Guest magnoliawalls]

14% of Irish own abroad and thats expected to rocket. The rest of the UK is catching up.

A SERIOUS PREDICTION I WANT YOU ALL TO REMEMBER;

I guarantee you that investing abroad in THE new way to make money and in 5 years will be huge business.

Demand is immense.

The Republic of Ireland is not part of the UK and with euro interest rates at 2.25% borrowing money is cheap there. It also has a relatively small population with little real impact on overseas markets despite the scaremongering in the UK.

Good luck with your "investments" but dont you think that if speculators from the UK manage to price out the locals in a country like, say, Bulgaria the locals will not tolerate this.

When ROI became independent British landowners had their houses burnt.

[MarkG]

dont you think that if speculators from the UK manage to price out the locals in a country like, say, Bulgaria the locals will not tolerate this.

Don't worry, I'm sure that Bulgarians are just as sheep-like as Britons and would never, ever think of burning down houses owned by rich British 'property investors' once they're priced out of their own country.

[Libertine]

Dogbox,

You've been banging the same drum since Dec 2004 (wasn't it Germany, back then ??). At the same time, you were also advising us on the UK market. A few of your comments from Dec 04.....

"B2L is still a sound long-term investment and rents are on the up"

"So its onwards and upwards in 2005."

"FTBs - will emerge in droves come Febuary because in the end the whiff of moderate price drops will be too much to bare."

"The big recovery is gathering momentum"

"I think all these 'losses' will reverse by Spring. From there I think prices will creep- up further."

"Now is an amazing buying oportunity"

If you're so confident then stop wasting your time ramping on here and get out there. Surely you're not still sitting on the sidelines over twelve months later ?? Careful....don't miss the boat.

Thankyou and goodnight.