Wto Trading Rules Apply For 2Yrs Upon Triggering Of Article 50

[workingpoor]

Still, informal talks can be made prior to the final leaving if the EU. No big deal.

Ah so it could be set up informally leaving a minimal period on WTO after 24 months?

[rollover]

Still, informal talks can be made prior to the final leaving if the EU. No big deal.

Germany rules out informal negotiations.

[porca misèria]

Wondering why Article 50 hasn't been triggered?

Here's why:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36678222

The nation triggering article 50 immediately moves to WTO trading status for the 2yr negotiating period.

You mean every company wanting to export to the EU gets an immediate doubling of red tape (once to conform with UK rules, and all over again for EU rules)? Given that those rules are harmonised, it sounds implausible!

[Si1]

Germany rules out informal negotiations.

For the whole world? Blimey.

[Si1]

Dup

Edited July 1, 2016 by Si1

[Si1]

Ah so it could be set up informally leaving a minimal period on WTO after 24 months?

There's no requirement to spend 2 years on WTO. I'm sure you've misunderstood.

[porca misèria]

It's easy. Just declare no tarriffs and free trade with any EU country immediately. Invoke article 50 and withdraw from europe within the week.

It's got *** all to do with tarriffs.

It's about red tape. While we're in the single market, you deal with one set of red tape (e.g. certifications for your product) to trade in 28 countries. If we come out, that's an instant doubling of red tape for UK business.

[olde guto]

LMAO

Why the heck wasn't this really being discussed before? It was all EUSSR this and immigrants that.

At least the Scots had some sort of plan for leaving the UK (whether it was realistic or not is another matter), yet the leave campaign's planning seemed to centred around "don't worry about that it'll be fine, we've no idea how, but it'll be fine, it's bound to be something you totally agree with, oh look there's an East European over there trying to steal your job you'd better run quick".

You do wonder if our faceless bureaucrats that draft laws deliberately made the referendum advisory so that Article 50 wouldn't be invoked.

It's going to be an interesting few years. The bremainers will be happy with anything that isn't total isolation, the brexiters have a wide spectrum from isolationism/exceptionalism to joining the EEA - there'll be tears before bedtime.

[Si1]

LMAO

Why the heck wasn't this really being discussed before? It was all EUSSR this and immigrants that.

At least the Scots had some sort of plan for leaving the UK (whether it was realistic or not is another matter), yet the leave campaign's planning seemed to centred around "don't worry about that it'll be fine, we've no idea how, but it'll be fine, it's bound to be something you totally agree with, oh look there's an East European over there trying to steal your job you'd better run quick".

You do wonder if our faceless bureaucrats that draft laws deliberately made the referendum advisory so that Article 50 wouldn't be invoked.

It's going to be an interesting few years. The bremainers will be happy with anything that isn't total isolation, the brexiters have a wide spectrum from isolationism/exceptionalism to joining the EEA - there'll be tears before bedtime.

Considering the EU are apparently trying to make up the'rules' as they go then forming a plan would have been a bit pointless.

[porca misèria]

Your link is 7 days old mine is from today, (in Brussels)

Yours is (your reading of) some journo's spin on a perhaps-casual remark from one individual.

[workingpoor]

There's no requirement to spend 2 years on WTO. I'm sure you've misunderstood.

Yes i did misunderstand partially i think the 2 yrs (up to can be quicker)

Are on current Eu trading rules while "leaving" negotiations are completed these are political negotiations not trade.

Then upon completion of "leaving" negotiations (up to 2 yrs max)

The leaving nation switches from EU trading rules to WTO trading rules and begins trade negotiations

so there is no doubling of red tape it is a switch at 24 months or sooner.

Then many years are spent on WTO until a Norway or Canada model is negotiated

(norway model will be quicker)

The city is concerned about the uk service industry having to spend years on WTO

That's how i have read the article and yes i appologise for misunderstanding it.

And agreed it could just be journalistic spin but it was the EU trade commisioner being interviewed.

The point is (from the article) that the EU cannot negotiate trade with a member state, that state has to leave first

also that state is barred from negotiating seperatly with other countries whilst still a member of the EU

It is just a BBC Newsnight interview with the EU Trade Commissioner so i apologise again for misreading it.

Edited July 1, 2016 by workingpoor

[Si1]

Yes i did misunderstand partially i think the 2 yrs (up to can be quicker)

Are on current Eu trading rules while "leaving" negotiations are completed these are political negotiations not trade.

Then upon completion of "leaving" negotiations (up to 2 yrs max)

The leaving nation switches from EU trading rules to WTO trading rules and begins trade negotiations

so there is no doubling of red tape it is a switch at 24 months or sooner.

Then many years are spent on WTO until a Norway or Canada model is negotiated

(norway model will be quicker)

The city is concerned about the uk service industry having to spend years on WTO

That's how i have read the article and yes i appologise for misunderstanding it.

And agreed it could just be journalistic spin but it was the EU trade commisioner being interviewed.

The point is (from the article) that the EU cannot negotiate trade with a member state, that state has to leave first

also that state is barred from negotiating seperatly with other countries whilst still a member of the EU

It is just a BBC Newsnight interview with the EU Trade Commissioner so i apologise again for misreading it.

Ok so we would be, potentially, on WTO rules WITH THE EU WHICH ONLY CONSTITUTES 45% OF OUR TRADE. meanwhile well probably have negotiated trade deals with major economies in the rest of the world, which has a much higher economic growth rate than the EU, which incidentally the EU has failed to do so far for major blocks like the US and Japan. Edited July 1, 2016 by Si1

[Simon Taylor]

Doesn't all this talk of the political and legal detail ignore one rather important fact?

The EU sells more to the UK than the UK sells to the EU. The UK is the EU's largest export customer; it sells more to the UK than even to the US. Are we really to believe that the German car industry (over a third of the cars Daimler Benz sells in the EU, ex-Germany, go to the UK) or the French wine producers (the UK is the worlds second largest market after the US) are really going to allow political vanities to put their trade at risk?

This is why the team which head up the UK's relationship status with the EU should be talking to the elected national leaders in the Council rather than the Commission. Merkel, Hollande, Renzi et al are answerable to their electorate , Jean Claude Junker and the rest of the commissioners are not.

Ultimately, it is trade and commerce which pays for everything else, and the EU and UK politicians should be reminded of this every day until a commercially pragmatic deal which doesn't disturb the current trading arrangements is arrived at.

(And we know that the EU will happily bend the rules and move it's red lines if necessary to keep a nation state on side. This is why Danes are allowed to ban Germans from buying houses in Denmark)

[workingpoor]

Ok so we would be, potentially, on WTO rules WITH THE EU WHICH ONLY CONSTITUTES 45% OF OUR TRADE. meanwhile well probably have negotiated trade deals with major economies in the rest of the world, which has a much higher economic growth rate than the EU, which incidentally the EU has failed to do so far for major blocks like the US and Japan.

From the article:

It is also against EU law for a member to negotiate its own trade deals with outsiders, which means the UK cannot start doing this until after it has left the EU.

&

WTO rules restrict the circumstances in which countries discriminate in favour of each other in trade. Otherwise, they must apply to each other the tariffs they apply against the rest of the world.

So UK would have to apply the same world tarrifs to the EU? (whilst under WTO)

Edited July 1, 2016 by workingpoor

[Fully Detached]

From the article:

It is also against EU law for a member to negotiate its own trade deals with outsiders, which means the UK cannot start doing this until after it has left the EU.

How many people realised they where joining a sect.

What a tangled web of deceit the whole thing is.

[Save me from the madness!]

Why is there all this talk of the UK getting a Norway style model? As far as I see it, a Norway style model is the worst of both worlds. Under a Norway style model:

- Movement of labour is allowed - a key plank of the leave campaign aim to end

- Significant contribution to EU budget still has to be made (some years Norway has paid more per capita than the UK) - again, a key plank of the leave campaign was to not have to pay money to the EU

- Most EU legislation has to be implemented, with zero power to influence.

- Receive no funding back from the EU

I'm a little surprised by how poor the Remain campaign was at ramming these home. It feels like WTO rules and no banking passport are about the only likely option that doesn't see the most ridiculous situation of the UK voluntarily giving up any say, and keeping the perceived 'negatives' of being in the EU.

[ccc]

So its against EU Law ? So what happens ? Do we get a huge set of handcuffs flung over our Island and then dragged off by a massive tug to some 'country' jail in the Arctic to punish us for our lawbreaking ? This entire thing is ludicrous. WE ARE IN CHARGE. I just hope the people chosen to go into these 'negotiations' realise that.

[workingpoor]

So its against EU Law ? So what happens ? Do we get a huge set of handcuffs flung over our Island and then dragged off by a massive tug to some 'country' jail in the Arctic to punish us for our lawbreaking ? This entire thing is ludicrous. WE ARE IN CHARGE. I just hope the people chosen to go into these 'negotiations' realise that.

Yes but i expect we will toe the line (if it ever happens that is)

[Simon Taylor]

Why is there all this talk of the UK getting a Norway style model? As far as I see it, a Norway style model is the worst of both worlds. Under a Norway style model:

- Movement of labour is allowed - a key plank of the leave campaign aim to end

- Significant contribution to EU budget still has to be made (some years Norway has paid more per capita than the UK) - again, a key plank of the leave campaign was to not have to pay money to the EU

- Most EU legislation has to be implemented, with zero power to influence.

- Receive no funding back from the EU

I'm a little surprised by how poor the Remain campaign was at ramming these home. It feels like WTO rules and no banking passport are about the only likely option that doesn't see the most ridiculous situation of the UK voluntarily giving up any say, and keeping the perceived 'negatives' of being in the EU.

Norway has a €20bns trade surplus with the EU, largely accounted for by gas exports.

The UK has a trade deficit with the EU. and the EU export figures are much, much larger. It's a very different position .

[iamnumerate]

Norway has a €20bns trade surplus with the EU, largely accounted for by gas exports.

The UK has a trade deficit with the EU. and the EU export figures are much, much larger. It's a very different position .

Good point they should be paying us to trade with us not the reverse. It like China asking us for money to sell us things.

[libspero]

Why is there all this talk of the UK getting a Norway style model? As far as I see it, a Norway style model is the worst of both worlds. Under a Norway style model.

Completely agree..

The ideal (and if May really meant what she said in her speech the other day,the plan) is to aim for something more like the Canadian / Korean trade arrangement.

The trade off is that we could be on WTO terms for a long time while the details are negotiated, where as a Norway style model is a "quick fix" on significantly worse terms. Europe would undoubtably be angling for the latter because that best suits them, the question is how much business would we hemorrhage in the interim period if we hold out for the former. It would probably be worth it.. but a painful exercise for a few years unless European industry really does light a fire up their leaders bums to push it through quickly..

[libspero]

Another bargaining chip if the Germans play hardball.. We could always reopen the enquiry into the damage VW emissions cheating caused and impose massive fines to cover the cost of cleaning up our city centres and pay towards medical care.. you know that's what the US would do!

[ccc]

Yes but i expect we will toe the line (if it ever happens that is)

I don't have a problem with that as long as the EU are reasonable with us. Looking at previous behavior - that looks unlikely.

So its time for UKPLC to get a little feisty.

I know he is a bit of a mentalist and a bellend. But we really could do with some Trump type character to get in amongst all this.

[porca misèria]

So its against EU Law ?

Erm, I expect that's misreporting as usual.

We don't enter trade agreements other than through the EU. But nothing to prevent negotiating in anticipation of a post-EU agreement.

Nor indeed anything against negotiating with third-parties while within the EU, and then proposing the outcome of such negotiations for adoption by the EU. "Can we all agree that Utopia's standards for widgets are compatible with ours, so our importers and exporters can accept each other's widget certifications without extra red tape?"

[Sandwiches33]

My feelings as well, if Germany want to play it it difficult then as annoying as it might be a for a few we can drop BMW or Audi and look to the South Korea or Japan for the great choice in luxury cars, and there are plenty of others. We can ween ourselves of champagne and French cheese and start drink more carva and sparkling wine and look at our own cheese or other choices from around the world, which is just as good anyway, If the Jocks want to go, let them, Japan now make the best malt whiskey in the world and I was never a big fan of haggis.

<b>What I want to see happen soon is all the doom and gloom Bremainers shut up or even removed from their political seats, I want the media to pack it in with all the apocalyptic rubbish, the Heseltines of this world sent off to pasture, and not before time. If a EU country is going to make difficult to sell any one of our products we will do the same to them and buy elsewhere on the understanding they take a little closer look at what we have to offer as well. No, it will not be plain sailing as I make it sound, but their will be opportunities where one man struggling will give another a chance, and that is what I think bugs the Remainers the most, they want things to stay as they are so they continue to profit.

The more I think about Brexit the more hope I have, if for example one moaning Bremainer folding up because he cannot do business in the EU anymore might give me a chance to find an alternative in the Asian countries or elsewhere. All I want to hear from now on is solutions and not suicidal Bremainers, I don't care if the Labour party is going to go under, let it, who needs the manic depressive Angela Eagles and Abbot spreading doom and gloom. The sooner we fill the UK media with people who have solutions and ideas the better.</b>

There you go, the very second I posed that last message I turned onto the BBC to see someone sad looking woman on TV using Skype, "Oh our poor kids, the racial attacks", moan moan moan. Then onto the attractive educated woman in Germany who is feeling a little worried, does that compare in anyway to the 5 million plus of uneducated dross that the UK has had to take in over the last decade.

The media is on a big racism spin at the moment especially the BBC, the alleged surge in attacks comes from a charitable website which logs attacks although these are not anything which can be verified. Greater Manchester police reported a rise but didnt seem significant, in one day the had 9 extra reported incidents. I expect the tiny handful of thugs have been emboldened but I dont think we are nearly at the point of armies of brownshirts marking immigrant shops. However claiming a wave of racism is sweeping the country does fit there continued narrative. They dont even see there own reporting emboldens the handful of dicks yet further. Thing is though they dont give a shit about racism its all about virtue signalling and pursuing there own agenda of bremain.

Germans talk tough but there are plenty other nice cars in the world like you say. A lot of the new jags are easily comparable. I know they are owned by indians but if the germans were dicks and some folk bought jags instead that would really do wonders for or economy and shaft them.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f6cda050-20bb-11e5-aa5a-398b2169cf79.html#axzz4D9JSDaGH

money talks and for all the strutting in front of cameras behind the scenes thats all anybody cares about.