Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
workingpoor

Wto Trading Rules Apply For 2Yrs Upon Triggering Of Article 50

Recommended Posts

There is concern in the City that having to do business for years under WTO rules could be disastrous for the UK's service industries.

Under EU law, the bloc cannot negotiate a separate trade deal with one of its own members, hence the commissioner's insistence that the UK must first leave.

It is also against EU law for a member to negotiate its own trade deals with outsiders, which means the UK cannot start doing this until after it has left the EU.

Taken at face value, these rules mean the UK cannot conduct its own trade talks for up to two years - a fearsome challenge to any prime minister trying to deliver Brexit.

EU officials say the UK's options will soon refine themselves into a Norway-style package that keeps Britain within the single market - subject to EU rules and regulations - or a bespoke "third

country" deal on the pattern of Canada's.

They agree that because British businesses are already compliant with EU rules and regulations, choosing to remain within the single market would be "a little quicker", than negotiating a deal like Canada's.

But even a Norway-style single market access deal, they caution, could take years to negotiate, leaving the UK trading on WTO terms in the meantime.

Edited by workingpoor

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So what exactly does this mean, the Germans want to sell us a BMW for £40k, What happens?

Surely if this is going to mess with everyone's economies then there will be a vote round it.

The Europeans are trying to scare us into a new Brexit referendum.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It means "we got the Game on"

It also means the truth is out about the stalling behind submitting Article 50.

Submit=Toast IMPO

Edited by workingpoor

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's easy. Just declare no tarriffs and free trade with any EU country immediately. Invoke article 50 and withdraw from europe within the week.

Whatever tarriffs the other countries impose can then be negotiated, with the understanding that if they're difficult then we'll look to import elsewhere.

We hold the cards, why do not use it to our advantage, we'll play nice but if you won't then we won't.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's easy. Just declare no tarriffs and free trade with any EU country immediately. Invoke article 50 and withdraw from europe within the week.

Whatever tarriffs the other countries impose can then be negotiated, with the understanding that if they're difficult then we'll look to import elsewhere.

We hold the cards, why do not use it to our advantage, we'll play nice but if you won't then we won't.

Hence the Platitudes being trotted out from both sides.

The games hotting up!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So what exactly does this mean, the Germans want to sell us a BMW for £40k, What happens?

Surely if this is going to mess with everyone's economies then there will be a vote round it.

The Europeans are trying to scare us into a new Brexit referendum.

And there I had hoped that BREXIT would pop the German bubble...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No, after Article 50 is triggered, EU rules still apply for two years.

WTO rules only apply if there's no deal after those two years.

https://constitution-unit.com/2016/06/20/the-road-to-brexit-16-things-you-need-to-know-about-what-will-happen-if-we-vote-to-leave-the-eu/

That's not what the EU Trade Commisioner is saying:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36678222

It stands to reason for me as to why the reluctance to submit article 50 and weasel stalling.

The EU cannot negotiate with a member state as long as it remains a member they have to go out on day one switching to WTO trading rules for the 2yr negotiating period.

Your link is 7 days old mine is from today, (in Brussels)

Edited by workingpoor

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That's not what the EU Trade Commisioner is saying:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36678222

It stands to reason for me as to why the reluctance to submit article 50 and weasel stalling.

The EU cannot negotiate with a member state as long as it remains a member they have to go out on day one switching to WTO trading rules for the 2yr negotiating period.

Your link is 7 days old mine is from today, (in Brussels)

That's wrong. Lies and flim flam.

Article 50
1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.
2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.
3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.
A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(B) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

Source :- http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the-lisbon-treaty/treaty-on-European-union-and-comments/title-6-final-provisions/137-article-50.html

If the notification was the withdrawal agreement then why have a further 2 years deadline?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

once you leave a contract why ae you bound by it?

gordonbrownAP1312_468x351_zpsrh6mbzp1.jp

"Today Gordon Brown will betray every good thing he claimed to stand for when he became Prime Minister," Cameron told the Sun.
"He said he would trust the British people and consult them more. He doesn't even have the guts to put it to the British people."
The news emerged after Brown was accused of political cowardice after it was confirmed that he will miss today's lavish signing ceremony for the new European treaty.
He will arrive in Lisbon too late and will have to add his name some time after the other EU leaders.
Tories seized on the announcement as evidence that Mr Brown is trying to duck responsibility for a treaty that he personally supports.
He has repeatedly stated that the delay is due to a diary conflict - but as he appeared before a House parliamentary committee today he opened with a joking reference to his plan to miss the signing ceremony and the EU heads of state family photo, so that he could appear before the committee.
"I think you can see the priority I attach to attending this committee," he said.
Shadow Foreign Secretary William Hague said: "Some people say Gordon Brown's problems are that he isn't decisive and he lacks political courage.
"If he's ashamed of signing this treaty then why doesn't he honour his election promise and let the British people have their say?"

Source :- http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-501637/Brown-signs-EU-Treaty-experts-warn-UK-surrender-control-immigration.html

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There are 2 stages to leaving

trigger article 50 then:

2yrs of leaving negotiations

only once leaving is complete can trade negotiations start

There can be no trade talks only shaping future trade talks during the 2 yr leaving period.

Edited by workingpoor

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't think so.

You trigger article 50 then you have two years to negotiate your trade deals, if it's not acceptable to all 28 then you go to WTO rules or if everybody agrees the negotiations can be extended indefinitely (not very likely!)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There are 2 stages to leaving

trigger article 50 then:

2yrs of leaving negotiations

only once leaving is complete can trade negotiations start

There can be no trade talks only shaping future trade talks during the 2 yr leaving period.

Just what do you think they can do about it? Sweet FA, that's what.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Are we not still in the EU until we leave the EU?

We are deemed in it until we negotiate the exit or 2 years after notifying A50, which ever is the sooner.

All this you can't negotiate stuff until x etc is ********.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There is no precedent.

We are the first to do this.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There is no precedent.

We are the first to do this.

Meaning the rules will get made up. If the EU announces major reforms would a UK govt still seek to exit or ask the question again? The referendum result is something which is merely opinion at a specific timepoint.

Also the final deal now surely needs referendum approval?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Meaning the rules will get made up. If the EU announces major reforms would a UK govt still seek to exit or ask the question again? The referendum result is something which is merely opinion at a specific timepoint.

Also the final deal now surely needs referendum approval?

No idea !!

But the same people telling us the the EU rules on article 50 are the rules and we will have to go along with them - also seem to think that the uk government may go back on this referendum and change things to suit.

They don't really see the contradiction in their argument.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Can the law stop Brexit?

Legal opinions are emerging as to how the UK's departure from the European Union might be slowed or even stopped.

They fall into three main areas:

  • the operation of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty
  • a Scottish "block"
  • a second national referendum

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Under EU law, the bloc cannot negotiate a separate trade deal with one of its own members, hence the commissioner's insistence that the UK must first leave.

It is also against EU law for a member to negotiate its own trade deals with outsiders, which means the UK cannot start doing this until after it has left the EU.

Solution : Discard EU Law.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Article 50 process would cut across and emasculate the 1972 act, and so, the argument goes, the prime minister needs the backing of a new act of Parliament to give him or her the constitutional authority to push the Leave button. Lord Pannick QC, an eminent specialist in public law, said: "Whether Parliament would enact legislation to allow for an Article 50 withdrawal is a matter for it. "However, without such legislation, the prime minister cannot lawfully give a notification."

If it was decided that a prime minister acting alone under prerogative powers lacked the constitutional authority to trigger Article 50, an act of Parliament would need to be passed giving him or her that authority. The passage of that act would of course provide the opportunity for MPs (a majority of whom favour Remain) to express their views on Brexit and in theory vote according to their consciences. However, it seems constitutionally inconceivable that Parliament would fly in the face of the Leave vote secured through a national referendum and refuse to pass an act that gave the prime minister authority to begin the "divorce" process.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Reading again it looks like:

Invoke Article 50

2 stages to leaving:

1. UP TO 2yrs max for leaving negotiations

(and setting out the shape of future trade talks

but not negotiating them during the leaving talks)

Once leaving talks are complete the UK exits the EU

this can be expedited it doesnt have to take 2yrs.

2. UK moves to WTO status and begins formal talks on trade deals

single market Norway model will be quicker

canadian model will be very slow

Both will take many years and the UK will trade on WTO terms for those years in negotiation.

Does that cover it?

Edited by workingpoor

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Reading again it looks like:

Invoke Article 50

2 stages to leaving:

1. UP TO 2yrs max for leaving negotiations

(and setting out the shape of future trade talks

but not negotiating them during the leaving talks)

Once leaving talks are complete the UK exits the EU

this can be expedited it doesnt have to take 2yrs.

2. UK moves to WTO status and begins formal talks on trade deals

single market Norway model will be quicker

canadian model will be very slow

Both will take many years and the UK will trade on WTO terms for those years in negotiation.

Does that cover it?

Still, informal talks can be made prior to the final leaving if the EU. No big deal.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   52 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.