Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[Dorkins]

On 12/03/2020 at 22:18, GrizzlyDave said:

The EU unicorn fairytale is a fantasy. The reality is every man for themselves. Nice to see the veneer slipped tbh...

It has been a standard Brexiter prediction for years that the EU would use the next crisis as an opportunity to grab more power from the member states under the guise of emergency powers which would then become permanent. Well the crisis is here and there is absolutely no sign of such a power grab.

Those of us who said the EU is a rule-based organisation and new competencies would require new treaties, unanimity among the national governments, there is no momentum for expanding the EU's competencies etc were repeatedly told we were naive and didn't understand how EU politics really works.

Edited March 14, 2020 by Dorkins

[IMHAL]

1 hour ago, crouch said:

They will be different feedback loops because the context is different and to say they can be factored out is pure supposition.

Ok...let's play.

What's the purpose of these fedback loops?

Quote

Pure supposition. To assume that all feedback loops are negative is laughable.

I didn't say all, I said the one due to one thing we know will happen....ie increased friction. I suppose that the need to adapt to the relatively adverse environment may cause some positive outcomes. In fact i have no doubt that it will. My issue is that there are not many who can identify the positives. Not a great sales pitch.

Quote

You mean the losses you assume they're going to make. Pure supposition.

 I only assume one thing. There will be increased friction, which is not really an assumption. It's fact.

Edited March 14, 2020 by IMHAL

[crouch]

17 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

Ok...let's play.

What's the purpose of these fedback loops?

There is no purpose; a feedback loop is a biological term  wherein the output of a system amplifies the system (positive feedback) or inhibits the system (negative feedback). Businesses will adapt to the new situation and find new opportunities which will give them different feedback loops to the ones they have now.

20 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

I didn't say all, I said the one due to one thing we know will happen....ie increased friction. I suppose that the need to adapt to the relatively adverse environment may cause some positive outcomes. In fact i have no doubt that it will. My issue is that there are not many who can identify the positives. Not a great sales pitch.

The point is you don't know what the effect will be; you just assume it will be negative but you have no evidence.

 

 

[crouch]

34 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

Well the crisis is here and there is absolutely no sign of such a power grab.

Are you serious? A crisis occurs and the Commission, and it is the Commission we are talking about, pops up and says to itself "let's grab some more power - now, this very minute"! Even the EU is not so blatant as that. If these things do occur, and they may well do so, they will be elaborately choreographed over months and probably years.

Straw man - again.

[pig]

4 hours ago, crouch said:

The context was the fact that even before we had left the EU the projections were being thrown off by a black swan whose effect on the future might turn out to be quite considerable. All those long term predictions have been thrown into disarray and just show the futility of making predictions and how uncertain the future is. That is what is amusing - not of course the virus itself.

The reality is that you've been repeatedly reminded that the recent past, present and near future have been fecked by Brexit,  burning out everybody's brains including in ways that aren't directly to to with economics,, but you keep on wittering on about macro-economic predictions and praying that everybody will have forgotten about Brexit in a few months.

I pretty much heard this kind of defence in the 80s about Thatcher.  but fast forward 20 years and the DM was shocked and outraged by Ding Dong the Witch is Dead hitting the  top of the charts and Thatcherism has framed every other fecking argument on this website.

4 hours ago, crouch said:

The implication here appears to be that I consider all expert modelling to be futile and that is simply not true. Some expert modelling is very useful; some is not.

I don't care to hide Brexit's macroeconomic footprints at all; my argument is that you cannot calculate them in any meaningful sense not that they oughtn't to be calculated at all.

I think the general implication here is that you've rather curiously lost the plot: for you Brexit has - or more to the point desperately needs -  the political, social, economic, cultural and geopolitical impact of some bored teenager trotting out in Rotheram to buy a bag of crisps..

[IMHAL]

40 minutes ago, crouch said:

There is no purpose; a feedback loop is a biological term  wherein the output of a system amplifies the system (positive feedback) or inhibits the system (negative feedback). Businesses will adapt to the new situation and find new opportunities which will give them different feedback loops to the ones they have now.

The point is you don't know what the effect will be; you just assume it will be negative but you have no evidence.

 

 

I find your argument strange. Why? Because it can be applied to ANY event, no matter how positive or negative. It actually tells us nothing, other than anything could happen long term, given that we are constantly adapting, no matter what. Using this as a basis to justify a negative action in the face of many businesses warnings that are key to our economy is absurd. 

As far as business goes. It is in the main preferable to strive for short term advantage and that is what they seek to achieve, ie within there planning horizon . As the very long term is filled with uncertainty, it is, by definition, not something you can acuratley plan for, therefore the focus has to be on the planning horizon you can influence. No one I know in business ignores the known short/medium term advantages in favour for something that may or may not happen in the far out long term. It's just not plausable.  

We could take your argument and reframe it thus. Crossing the road, knowing that we will suffer a broken leg, may infact be good for us long term because we will adapt to our injury and may come out better in the end. I doubt you will have many takers for this experiment. 

Sure, everything sentient that is able think or any living entity that is able to mutate or able to change it's behaviour will adapt to gain advantage or reduce the disavantage that has befallen it. In this case it is a self imposed disadvantage. Brexit could be a contender for the Darwin award.

Edited March 14, 2020 by IMHAL

[Dorkins]

7 minutes ago, crouch said:

Are you serious? A crisis occurs and the Commission, and it is the Commission we are talking about, pops up and says to itself "let's grab some more power - now, this very minute"! Even the EU is not so blatant as that. If these things do occur, and they may well do so, they will be elaborately choreographed over months and probably years.

Straw man - again.

That's fine, happy to see you accept that there is no real possibility of an emergency power grab by the Commission in any crisis.

The paranoia about elaborately choreographed power grabs years after the crisis has passed speaks for itself.

[dugsbody]

1 hour ago, crouch said:

I don't sense folk are blaming the EU right now but I agree there's a standing need for scapegoats and this doesn't help.

 

Please.

Just read back on this thread for any mention of the word migrant. I'd wager 100% of them blame the EU (from brexit voters).

[dugsbody]

1 hour ago, crouch said:

Most are biased; they, like many, believe that there is no better alternative than membership of the EU. There's nothing wrong or even deliberate about this; we're all biased. Most Levers however do not prioritise the economy over everything else.

No, most just understand the gravity model of trade and sensibly agree that leaving a frictionless trade union and every single associated trade agreement with other countries that came with it, is definitely going to have a negative lasting impact.

This does not require modelling of complex scenarios. It is just accepted wisdom and nothing to do with bias towards the EU. I'm pretty sure you could ask experts from around the world who are neutral about the EU and they'd say the same.

[crouch]

38 minutes ago, pig said:

The reality is that you've been repeatedly reminded that the recent past, present and near future have been fecked by Brexit

Opinion. Affected yes; fecked maybe.

40 minutes ago, pig said:

but you keep on wittering on about macro-economic predictions

Yes because folk on here regard these predictions as fact when they are nothing more than sophisticated guesses which tell you very little. What staggers me is that people still hold this view despite overwhelming evidence going back many years that such projections are little more than worthless.

43 minutes ago, pig said:

I think the general implication here is that you've rather curiously lost the plot: for you Brexit has - or more to the point desperately needs -  the political, social, economic, cultural and geopolitical impact of some bored teenager trotting out in Rotheram to buy a bag of crisps.

I have never said it will have no impact; what I have said is that it will be difficult to isolate the Brexit factor in changes going forward and that most people won't be interested anyway.

And I don't desperately need anything.

[dugsbody]

2 hours ago, crouch said:

Brexit is a long term issue and to say it has failed even before it has properly started is really an absurd position to take.

No, because it has already broken many of the promises the primary advocates made. Your position is the usual slippery one, nothing can be measured, there is no criteria for anything. Which all works out rather nicely for you because it means leave campaigners could lie as much as they like to harvest votes and then afterward, "we all voted for brexit despite what they said, not because". 

It's yet another bit of dishonesty on top of the mountain of stinking dishonesty that made brexit.

 

[crouch]

45 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

I find your argument strange. Why? Because it can be applied to ANY event, no matter how positive or negative. It actually tells us nothing, other than anything could happen long term, given that we are constantly adapting, no matter what. Using this as a basis to justify a negative action in the face of many businesses warnings that are key to our economy is absurd. 

Quite right but Brexit is a cathartic event of some significance which may well push things off in a different trajectory.

47 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

As far as business goes. It is in the main preferable to strive for short term advantage and that is what they seek to achieve, ie within there planning horizon . As the very long term is filled with uncertainty, it is, by definition, not something you can acuratley plan for, therefore the focus has to be on the planning horizon you can influence. No one I know in business ignores the known short/medium term advantages in favour for something that may or may not happen in the far out long term. It's just not plausable.  

This is not business and your analogy is - again - inappropriate. This is forecast akin to where an asteroid will be in ten years' time; unlike business this is not something you can change or influence. And, as I have said repeatedly this country is based on free enterprise and it is not the Soviet Union; the Soviet Union had plans; we don't.

 

 

[crouch]

6 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

Your position is the usual slippery one, nothing can be measured, there is no criteria for anything.

Slippery implies intent but I don't care what people think and have no need to justify my views.

7 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

Which all works out rather nicely for you because it means leave campaigners could lie as much as they like to harvest votes and then afterward, "we all voted for brexit despite what they said, not because". 

As I don't care it can't work out "nicely" for me so I have no motivation to lie or cover up.

8 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

It's yet another bit of dishonesty on top of the mountain of stinking dishonesty that made brexit.

Indeed, many people told lies, no doubt about it.

[IMHAL]

30 minutes ago, crouch said:

Quite right but Brexit is a cathartic event of some significance which may well push things off in a different trajectory.

No doubt there will be a different trajectory.

Quote

This is not business and your analogy is - again - inappropriate. This is forecast akin to where an asteroid will be in ten years' time; unlike business this is not something you can change or influence. And, as I have said repeatedly this country is based on free enterprise and it is not the Soviet Union; the Soviet Union had plans; we don't.

 

 

Erm....yes it is business, or more accurately impacts business greatly, which we all rely on. What it is not, is biology.

Your argument remains implausible. Sorry. It's just absurd. By all means keep trotting it out, but you don't really have many takers.

Edited March 14, 2020 by IMHAL

[rollover]

 

Quote

 

Coronavirus sparks calls to extend EU transition period

Britain and the EU are facing calls to back away from a “game of chicken” and extend the Brexit transition period immediately, as both respond to the coronavirus pandemic.

Boris Johnson, however, has insisted there will be no change to the transition period – during which the UK follows EU regulations, including its free movement laws.

Guardian

 

When will Boris U-turn EU transition period?

[IMHAL]

Hey..who knows. In couch land covid 19, just like Brexit, may turn out to be positive to uk plc, or negative. After all, we will adapt and come out stonger (or weaker). Let's call it a cathartic experience. The world is full of numpties.............. any takers for this sales pitch?

Apparently, businesses may be in cash flow problems within 4 to 6 weeks due to the measures taken... but let's ignore these warnings....because no one knows the future.... you have to laugh....or cry. Common sense not require. Of course, covid 19 was not welcome/self inflicted/imposed, but brexit is...could you make it up?

Edited March 14, 2020 by IMHAL

[crouch]

11 hours ago, IMHAL said:

Your argument remains implausible. Sorry. It's just absurd. By all means keep trotting it out, but you don't really have many takers.

The view that the UK is just a business and can be viewed that way is absurd and has no takers.

[crouch]

9 hours ago, IMHAL said:

Hey..who knows. In couch land covid 19, just like Brexit, may turn out to be positive to uk plc, or negative. After all, we will adapt and come out stonger (or weaker). Let's call it a cathartic experience. The world is full of numpties.............. any takers for this sales pitch?

You can't grasp these things can you? Brexit is an unknown; Cvid 19 is a known; an unknown may turn out positive or negative but a known is, well, known. Risible.

9 hours ago, IMHAL said:

Apparently, businesses may be in cash flow problems within 4 to 6 weeks due to the measures taken... but let's ignore these warnings....because no one knows the future.... you have to laugh....or cry. Common sense not require. Of course, covid 19 was not welcome/self inflicted/imposed, but brexit is...could you make it up?

Contingency planning for a business is one thing; a long term forecast is another.

You're simply not up to this.

[IMHAL]

1 hour ago, crouch said:

The view that the UK is just a business and can be viewed that way is absurd and has no takers.

Problems reading?...I said impacts business.

[IMHAL]

1 hour ago, crouch said:

You can't grasp these things can you? Brexit is an unknown; Cvid 19 is a known; an unknown may turn out positive or negative but a known is, well, known. Risible.

Contingency planning for a business is one thing; a long term forecast is another.

You're simply not up to this.

Actually, that is not true. Cvid 19, just like Brexit,it can and will mutate. How Cvid 19 mutates remains unknown, with unknown effects.

Maybe you are not up to this.

[crouch]

16 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

Actually, that is not true. Cvid 19, just like Brexit,it can and will mutate. How Cvid 19 mutates remains unknown, with unknown effects.

I did not say the ultimate effects of Cvid 19 were known; I said the virus itself is known. With Brexit not only are many of the issues unknown but, by definition, the ultimate impact of these unknowns is unknown.

You struggle with comprehension.

[crouch]

28 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

Problems reading?...I said impacts business.

You consistently extrapolate from business to the whole economy simply - and it is simple - viewing the economy as a big business.

[IMHAL]

1 hour ago, crouch said:

I did not say the ultimate effects of Cvid 19 were known; I said the virus itself is known. With Brexit not only are many of the issues unknown but, by definition, the ultimate impact of these unknowns is unknown.

You struggle with comprehension.

Actually, your (selective?) naivety is quite endearing.

You seem to be able to diferentiate between Cvid 19 (the genome) and the effects of Cvid 19, which is at best, an irrelevant differentiation when it comes to reality (ie the impact). The effects of Cvid 19 are anything but known, how governments react are anything but known , how people will react, unknown, and the effects on business, again unknown. As such, it is pretty much like Brexit. If you know different then you are better than the stock markets , which you may have noticed are very volatile, as uncertainty surrounding Cvid 19 (catch all) abounds. The difference is that Brexit is self imposed and cannot be viewed as anything other than negative or at best troublesome, as it WILL increased friction. That is a fact suported by businesses warnings and numerous forecasts...

I don't have an issue with comprending your position. I have an issue with your skewed/selective perception and sophistry.... it serves no purpose other than giving the impression that you are trying to justify the unjustifiable....

Edited March 15, 2020 by IMHAL

[IMHAL]

23 minutes ago, crouch said:

You consistently extrapolate from business to the whole economy simply - and it is simple - viewing the economy as a big business.

The whole economy is supported by business... you cannot segregate the issues at your convenience.

[crouch]

1 hour ago, IMHAL said:

You seem to be able to diferentiate between Cvid 19 (the genome) and the effects of Cvid 19, which is at best, an irrelevant differentiation when it comes to reality (ie the impact). The effects of Cvid 19 are anything but known, how governments react are anything but known , how people will react, unknown, and the effects on business, again unknown.

If you substitute Brexit (the genome) and Brexit (the impact) you appear to agree with me. Thanks - at long last!

1 hour ago, IMHAL said:

The difference is that Brexit is self imposed and cannot be viewed as anything other than negative or at best troublesome, as it WILL increased friction. That is a fact suported by businesses warnings and numerous forecasts...

Presumption.

1 hour ago, IMHAL said:

I don't have an issue with comprending your position. I have an issue with your skewed/selective perception and sophistry.... it serves no purpose other than giving the impression that you are trying to justify the unjustifiable....

And of course you are completely unbiased.