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House Price Crash Forum


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About mewParadigm

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  1. Obviously a typo but this new listing for a £160m 3-bed in Nine Elms made me smile. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-53747933.html If they correct it to £1.6m, will PB etc show a 99% reduction?
  2. The apparent trending back up of the monthly and quarterly lines on the graph is not so crash-friendly. Far slower rises than the same time last year, but rises nonetheless. Something needs to change if the annual line is to continue down into negative territory.
  3. HPC-relevant event "Skyscraper and Slums" as part of the City of London festival. Generation Rent among the 4 panelists. http://www.colf.org/whats-on/?EventID=1462
  4. Some of it might be lower borrowing costs changing the economics, but most of the 40% is a speculation premium - people are so sure of HPI forever that they're paying that to get their slice of future gains / avoid being priced out for ever. That does seem 'mental'. I think the word is 'bubble' when the price of an asset loses all connection to its underlying value (in this case rental yield).
  5. One just put on the market in the same street for £850k http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/37286346 Suggests they are looking for an 877% increase on the price 15 years ago. I make that over £136 per day.
  6. This feels toppy: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-34900815.html, will need to see what the auction goes for. Though if as they say it rents for £10k pa, at a typical London yield of 3.5% it should go for £285k.
  7. A widening of the gap between asking and sold prices could well be a signal of the top. Is anyone publishing that stat these days?
  8. This is certainly what I think every time a new valuation estimate for Snapchat comes out - e.g. $19bn in Feb. But it's all relative - if I've done the sums right, Rightmove's market cap edges Fitbit at close to $5bn.
  9. Not the most insightful article. The only evidence I can see remotely related to the "rush to buy" headline is that "Rightmove said visits to its website had risen by 22pc in the last year". But was last year's figure historically high or low? And won't as many of the new visitors be sellers checking out the market as buyers? (And many people are both.) I would've been shocked if asking prices had done anything different from this after the election. And some people will buy out of fear-of-missing-out, who can say if they will be the greatest fools or the smart ones catching the next surge at the beginning? As usual there is some huge volatility in the London borough figures, but not only in the "special" prime ones where there are supposedly too few sales for good samples. This month Merton is up 15.8% and Tower Hamlets down 7.4% - both MoM figures. Does anyone believe either?
  10. That 37 year stat is an odd one - it's based on # of properties on sale per chartered surveyor. Perhaps there are just too many chartered surveyors. As for getting the market moving again, wasn't the stamp duty revision supposed to do that? Can't help thinking that the best way to increase stock for sale is about a 10% fall in prices to get BTLers and potential downsizers looking to lock in profits while they can.
  11. Only time will tell whether LSL Acad have developed an accurate index that responds to the market more quickly than the others, or if its modelling is wide of the mark (echoes of the recent dissection of election polling methodologies). In some ways this is exactly how a bubble could burst - it all starts with a lone, contrarian voice and spreads from there - but we should also acknowledge this could be a rogue result.
  12. It's odd - if I've looked it up correctly, the LR is pretty flat over the last year for both K&C and Westminster. The key line in their press release appears to be this: "the current month LSL Acad E&W HPI comprises a forecast of the LR outcome, using an academic 'index of indices' model, pending release of sufficient real data from the Land Registry." I can't tell for sure, but I wonder if they are feeding Rightmove data into this forecast. Last month, Rightmove had the eye-watering figures of minus 23.1% for K&C (http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-price-index/london-trends-28). Apparently RM is mix adjusted so that shouldn't be the result of only small flats being listed that month. Looks like the next issue is out on Monday 15th June so we'll soon see if there is a miracle bounce-back.
  13. Why isn't the sub-title "Annual house price growth could drop to 4.6% over the next five years..." as that would get you to exactly the same number? That is the kind of middle-of-the-road figure that they all seem to give out and is almost always well off, given the boom-bust nature of the market.
  14. You're right, but it has been widely mis-reported, e.g. one article talked about people having "£x left after essentials". That would be "discretionary income" - but imagine how difficult it would be for the ONS to calculate that, versus this one which just needs tax and benefit records.
  15. Well, in London they're going to the moon - after the GE an estate agent told us "£2m + market , especially in Prime , to rise 20% over the next 12 months and to double within five years" http://www.douglasandgordon.com/blog/10-year-residential-window-is-now-open/ (not seen this posted before but apologies if it has)
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