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HOLA441
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HOLA442
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HOLA444

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-29/india-surprises-51-out-52-experts-slashes-rates-more-expected-easing-bonanza-continu

Late last month, we asked how long it would be before the RBI hit back in the wake of China’s yuan deval.

The Indian government’s chief economic advisor Arvind Subramanian had just told ET Now television that India may need to "respond" to China’s monetary policy stance, and also hinted at further export weakness. It wasn’t hard to read between the lines: more shots were about to the be fired in the ongoing global currency wars.

Reinforcing that contention was the following from Deutsche Bank:

India’s export sector continues to be under pressure, with merchandise exports contracting yet again in July by 10.3%yoy. The weakness in India’s exports is striking (this is the eighth consecutive month of decline), not only in terms of past trend, but also from a cross country perspective. Indeed, India’s exports performance has been the weakest in the region thus far in 2015. In the first quarter of the current fiscal year (April-June’15), Indian exports have contracted by 17%yoy, one of the sharpest declines on record. The main reason for such a weak Indian export performance can be attributed to the sharp decline in oil exports (down 51%yoy between April-June’15), which constitute 18% of total exports.

Another factor that could likely explain the weak performance of exports is the probable overvaluation of the rupee. As per RBI’s 36-country trade based real effective exchange rate, rupee remains overvalued at this juncture and this could be impacting exports to some extent, in our view.

Bad news is everywhere!

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-29/rajan-unexpectedly-cuts-india-rate-more-than-economists-expected

India central bank Governor Raghuram Rajan built on his record of surprises with policy decisions Tuesday, taking advantage of a rout in commodity prices to lower borrowing costs by more than forecast.

Rajan, who unleashed emergency measures to prop up the rupee days after he took office and began this year with two unscheduled interest-rate cuts, lowered the benchmark repurchase rate by half a percentage point, to 6.75 percent. Most of the 52 economists surveyed by Bloomberg had predicted a quarter-point move, and just one made the right call.

While India’s currency has tumbled with emerging-market peers this year, as a commodity importer it has benefited from the fall in everything from oil to iron, which has pulled down the country’s inflation rate. That’s left Rajan scope to bolster support for growth, in a contrast with emerging market peers like Brazil that have had to raise rates.

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HOLA446

India is going through a bit of a rough patch,but longer term rough patches in India lead to high growth.It tends to make them roll back laws that stop foreign investment.

Looking at demographics going forward India has the best and really kicking in arounf 2018 or roughly 30 years.Probably will have a soft currency all that time but worse than sterling?.Who knows.Iv started investing there lately and will continue to do so and though any falls.

Kind of similar to the western baby boom causing inflation in the 70s' when all those young workers entered the workforce. Maybe these young indians will be big HPI beneficiaries in 3 decades time (assuming of course the Indian fertility rate moderates)?

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HOLA447

"I Would Say Don't Worry" Says Chinese Central Banker As Indian Central Banker Says "World Economy Is Looking Grim"

"I would say, don't worry" said Yi Gang, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, after the International Monetary Fund warned of risks in China's economic challenges.

"The world economy is looking grim" - said Raghuram Rajan, Indian central bank governor and former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund.

Edited by interestrateripoff
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HOLA449

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/another-bric-rolling-over-indias-exports-down-17-5-imports-contract-by-21/

'Another BRIC Rolling Over—-India’s Exports Down 17.5%, Imports Contract By 21%

New Delhi: India’s merchandise exports contracted for the eleventh consecutive month in October, as shipments of petroleum products continued to decline on lower crude oil prices, and external demand remained weak amid tepid global economic recovery.

Exports contracted 17.5% from a year ago to $21.3 billion while imports shrank 21.2% to $31.1 billion, leaving a trade deficit of $9.8 billion, data released by the commerce ministry showed on Monday.

In comparison, China’s October exports fell 6.9% from a year ago, down for a fourth month, while imports slipped 18.8%, leaving the country with a record high trade surplus of $61.64 billion.

India’s dip in exports was driven mainly by a 57.1% drop in shipments of petroleum products to $2.5 billion.'

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India central bank's Rajan favoured panel view on rate cut at April policy - minutes

MUMBAI Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan went with the majority view of the external members of its monetary policy committee that suggested a repo rate cut at the April review, according to the minutes released on Thursday.

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HOLA4412

Brexit global impact.

Bloomberg: Infosys Falls After Losing Technology Contract for RBS Spinoff

Infosys Ltd. was the biggest laggard in India’s benchmark index as the loss of a key contract added to headwinds faced by the nation’s software services companies.Shares fell 1.8 percent as of 9:58 a.m. in Mumbai while the Sensex Index rose 0.1 percent. Infosys plans a “ramp down” of about 3,000 roles after Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc scrapped plans for a spin off. The Indian company had been the technology partner to develop a separate IT platform.

The RBS contract was worth about $300 million in revenue annually for Infosys and could cut this fiscal year’s sales by as much $40 million, according to Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. The company is already facing challenges from Britain’s decision to leave the European Union and uncertainty over the global economy that has seen companies tighten spending on outsourcing services.

Edited by Fairyland
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Factbox - How low can they go? Central bank policy easing around the world

 

India's newly minted monetary policy committee delivered a surprise 25-basis-point cut in the repo rate to 6.25 percent on Tuesday, as Reserve Bank of India Governor Urjit Patel presided over his first policy review since his appointment last month.

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Gold Price Skyrockets In India After Currency Ban

20161110_gold.jpg

"As I write this in the morning of 9th November 2016, there are huge lines forming outside gold shops in India - and gold traded heavily until late into the night yesterday. Depending on who you ask, the retail price of gold has gone up between 15% and 20% within the last 10 hours."

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-09/why-india-pulled-big-bank-bills-from-circulation-quicktake-q-a

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-37933233

Quote

There have been chaotic scenes outside banks in India, two days after 500 ($7) and 1,000 rupee notes were withdrawn as part of anti-corruption measures.

Some banks ran out of cash. At others police were called in to manage queues of anxious customers hoping to change their savings for legal tender.

The surprise government move is aimed at tackling corruption and tax evasion.

But many low-income Indians, traders and ordinary savers who rely on the cash economy have been badly hit.

Banks were shut on Wednesday to allow them enough time to stock new notes following Tuesday night's announcement. There are also limits on cash withdrawals from ATMs.

The two notes accounted for about 85% of the cash in circulation.

The BBC's Geeta Pandey in Delhi says some banks extended working hours to deal with the rush on Thursday, and hired extra temporary staff.

 

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This afternoon bbc radio was saying some with large sums of money "under the mattress" were having to exchange with black market exchangers and taking a 40% discount",  for instance 60,000 in exchange for 100,000 - from memory they were talking in pounds sterling.

Edited by billybong
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HOLA4420

Modi's actions will do the square root of nothing other then the cause the chaos it already has with the chattering classes who've been abusing the poor., especially in construction. Temporarily they'll find they're SOL for a bit, and then it'll settle down for business as usual.

I am appalled every time I go at the way the 'middle class' treat the poor. 

As for those not in official jobs as it were, India's black market economy *is* the economy for at least half a billion people. Their interactions outside of that are minimal. It's not like the poor get anything there in return for paying their taxes. The notes already in circulation are just pieces of paper which people accept for transactions like anywhere else. Between the residents of dharavi shanties, that now 'illegal' money is probably still good for a long time.

Tl;dr Those without a real stake might as well just continue to use the 500s and the 1000s amongst themselves and tell Modi to whistle. They'll barter and hustle and invent like they always do. There are few more astonishing people to watch at work. I much prefer chatting to them then the corrupted nouveau riche middle classes over there.

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HOLA4425

The Secret World Of Indian Currency Printers

20161115_printer.jpg

The recent decision to abolish several high-denomination Indian bank-notes was taken with a view to curbing financing of terrorism through the proceeds of Fake Indian Currency Notes. However, it appears the new currency notes are being printed with the involvement of the same blacklisted companies that in fact were the source of fake notes to Pakistan in the first place.

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