China #1, United States #2?

[cashinmattress]

25 Facts

#1 Back in 1998, the United States had 25 percent of the world’s high-tech export market and China had just 10 percent. Ten years later, the United States had less than 15 percent and China's share had soared to 20 percent.

#2 The United States had been the leading consumer of energy on the globe for about 100 years, but this past summer China took over the number one spot.

#3 Nobel economist Robert W. Fogel of the University of Chicago is projecting that the Chinese economy will be three times larger than the U.S. economy by the year 2040 if current trends continue.

#4 Between 2000 and 2009, America's trade deficit with China skyrocketed nearly 300 percent.

#5 Over the past 15 years, China has moved up from 14th place to 2nd place in the world in published scientific research articles.

#6 Apple iPhones are manufactured in China by workers making about 293 dollars a month (and that was after a big raise).

#7 In 2009, the United States ranked dead last of the 40 nations examined by the Information Technology & Innovation Foundation when it came to "change" in "global innovation-based competitiveness" over the previous ten years.

#8 According to one recent study, China could become the global leader in patent filings by next year.

#9 Today, China controls over 90 percent of the total global supply of rare earth elements.

#10 According to a disturbing new study by the Economic Policy Institute, if the trade deficit with China continues to increase at its current rate, the U.S. economy will lose over half a million jobs this year alone.

#11 China is now the number one producer in the world of wind and solar power.

#12 The United States has lost a staggering 32 percent of its manufacturing jobs since the year 2000.

#13 Russia and China have announced that they have decided to quit using the U.S. dollar and instead start using their own national currencies when trading with each other.

#14 China now possesses the fastest supercomputer on the entire globe.

#15 In 2008, 1.2 billion cellphones were sold around the world. So how many of those cellphones were manufactured inside the United States? Zero.

#16 Today, the United States spends about $3.90 on Chinese goods for every $1 that China spends on goods from the United States.

#17 Now, close to half of all the graduate science students enrolled at colleges and universities in the United States are foreigners.

#18 China now has the world's fastest train and the world's biggest high-speed rail network.

#19 Manufacturing employment in the U.S. computer industry is actually lower in 2010 than it was in 1975.

#20 China is now the number one supplier of components that are critical to the operation of U.S. defense systems.

#21 Over the past several decades, China has been able to accumulate approximately $2.5 trillion in foreign currency reserves, and the U.S. government now owes them close to 900 billion dollars.

#22 Since 2001, over 42,000 U.S. factories have closed down for good.

#23 In 1985, the U.S. trade deficit with China was 6 million dollars for the entire year. In the month of August alone, the U.S. trade deficit with China was over 28 billion dollars.

#24 According to author Clyde Prestowitz, China's number one export to the U.S. is computer equipment.

#25 In 2010, the number one U.S. export to China is "scrap and trash".

Interesting.

What 25 facts were there for Britain when it lost it's #1 rank over a century ago?

[Guest The Relaxation Suite]

25 Facts

Interesting.

What 25 facts were there for Britain when it lost it's #1 rank over a century ago?

A critical difference is that when the British empire handed the baton of global dominance to the American empire, it was doing so to another liberal democracy. This time dominance is shifting to a totalitarian state, so I watch with interest to see further developments. None of them will be good, by the way.

[Qetesuesi]

A critical difference is that when the British empire handed the baton of global dominance to the American empire, it was doing so to another liberal democracy. This time dominance is shifting to a totalitarian state, so I watch with interest to see further developments. None of them will be good, by the way.

I disagree: both the UK and the USA have lately been moving with alarming speed in a totalitarian direction, while China is sloooowly moving in the opposite direction. Just as well that economic dominance is passing from one to t'other then.

[Guest The Relaxation Suite]

I disagree: both the UK and the USA have lately been moving with alarming speed in a totalitarian direction, while China is sloooowly moving in the opposite direction. Just as well that economic dominance is passing from one to t'other then.

Under the catastrophically awful leadership of Blair and Bush, the US and UK have violated many civil liberties and moved away from freedom towards a kind of neo-tatalitarian state, but it's very early days and to compare them with China where 5 million people are doing hard labour in gulags for political crimes is wide of the mark. China is a nightmare and it is not in any liberal democratic minded person's interest to watch it rise.

My view is that a new Reagan is about to pop up and knock it down anyway. This is, after all, America's last chance to do so.

[Saberu]

Under the catastrophically awful leadership of Blair and Bush, the US and UK have violated many civil liberties and moved away from freedom towards a kind of neo-tatalitarian state, but it's very early days and to compare them with China where 5 million people are doing hard labour in gulags for political crimes is wide of the mark. China is a nightmare and it is not in any liberal democratic minded person's interest to watch it rise.

My view is that a new Reagan is about to pop up and knock it down anyway. This is, after all, America's last chance to do so.

5 million isn't much from a country of 1.4 billion people. Also where did you get those figures? They don't seem to correspond to anything I've seen in the news about China. China is oppressing it's people MUCH less than Western governments, the facts are obvious- China has much lower taxes, much lower costs of living due to less dacronian land planning laws and much cheaper startup costs for smal businesses.

I've lived in China for over a year and never had any trouble from the police despite being a foreigner, so it's far from the totalitarian state you make it out to be. My only gripe about China is the cultural obsession over wealth and money which is the driving force being a hardworking and rather vain culture, but that doesn't seem to be much different to most countries in the world right now.

[repetitive bleats]

5 million isn't much from a country of 1.4 billion people. Also where did you get those figures? They don't seem to correspond to anything I've seen in the news about China. China is oppressing it's people MUCH less than Western governments, the facts are obvious- China has much lower taxes, much lower costs of living due to less dacronian land planning laws and much cheaper startup costs for smal businesses.

I've lived in China for over a year and never had any trouble from the police despite being a foreigner, so it's far from the totalitarian state you make it out to be. My only gripe about China is the cultural obsession over wealth and money which is the driving force being a hardworking and rather vain culture, but that doesn't seem to be much different to most countries in the world right now.

+1 I'm not joking when I tell people that I feel much more freedom when I am over there compared to living in the cctv obsessed, nanny state, health and safety, tax and fine culture that we have over here. the only plus we had over the chinese IMO is the right to protest and that is pretty much consigned to the history books.

[ad9898]

People have this idea that China are going to be a monolithic economy, bigger than even the US has been over the decades. It's not going to happen, I've been studying peak oil (and energy in general) for the past 6 years. The West's whole 'economic idea' is built on cheap oil, that oil will be all but gone within 5 years, China came to the party too late, it's last orders at the bar I'm afraid.

[Realistbear]

A critical difference is that when the British empire handed the baton of global dominance to the American empire, it was doing so to another liberal democracy. This time dominance is shifting to a totalitarian state, so I watch with interest to see further developments. None of them will be good, by the way.

Agree.

We also have to bear in mind that a lot of stuff produced by cheap Chinese labour is actually owned by overseas entities, many of them US companies. Dell have a lot shit made in China. Marshall, for example, have a lot of their low to midrange amps built in India but the profits line UK based folks.

[ZeroSumGame]

Some would argue that the British Empire is still relatively well in control. This Empire doesn't have much to do with the ordinary citizens of the UK. This empire still consists of a small number of families centred around the City of London, that still represent the greatest concentration of financial power ever assembled in one location.

The British empire is deader than a Norwegian blue.

However your point about some plutocrats is valid, and wealth&power does seem to be being more concentrated into fewer hands. The former British empire was defined by the British state. The group above is defined by individuals.

And of course there is now the ballooning corporat-ocracy too.

[getknk]

I'm thinking to go back to basics of economics

where land, labour and capital are the key..

the pattern is if you have enough labour and good efficiency, capital will shift towards you..

[bendy]

"#3 Nobel economist Robert W. Fogel of the University of Chicago is projecting that the Chinese economy will be three times larger than the U.S. economy by the year 2040 if current trends continue."

hardly a 'fact'.

[aa3]

I'm thinking to go back to basics of economics

where land, labour and capital are the key..

the pattern is if you have enough labour and good efficiency, capital will shift towards you..

I notice a lot of times modern finance and economics people overthink things. Your one is simple.

The Chinese are also practicing good old fashioned capitalism.. aka building up capital. Real capital like refineries, electric plants, ports, steel mills.

[pilchardthecat]

I notice a lot of times modern finance and economics people overthink things. Your one is simple.

The Chinese are also practicing good old fashioned capitalism.. aka building up capital. Real capital like refineries, electric plants, ports, steel mills.

All of which will serve as massive overcapacity and ****** them in the anus in the vast deflationary holocaust they are about to suffer

They are desperately trying to create enough internal demand for their overproduction, this is the inflatoin they are suffering now. They will fail.

[ken_ichikawa]

All of which will serve as massive overcapacity and ****** them in the anus in the vast deflationary holocaust they are about to suffer

They are desperately trying to create enough internal demand for their overproduction, this is the inflatoin they are suffering now. They will fail.

At which they will turn their hand to weapons production and lots of it! And maybe turn to conquest to support their economy. I reckon they could easily make half a million poor quality tanks and IFVs. Western powers would be burgered as our tanks would long run out of ammo before the first wave was destroyed. So would our close air support and infantry anti tank missiles etc.

Sort of like the battle of Imjim river but with tanks and yet again we're the Glocs regiment.

[Guest_FaFa!_*]

For what it's worth:

#1 Back in 1998, the United States had 25 percent of the world’s high-tech export market and China had just 10 percent. Ten years later, the United States had less than 15 percent and China's share had soared to 20 percent.

Yes, but how much of that is Chinese invention? Next to bog all - what has happened here is a rise in US companies producing goods on the cheap, not a rise in technological innovation.

#2 The United States had been the leading consumer of energy on the globe for about 100 years, but this past summer China took over the number one spot.

To be expected - China has 4 times the population of the US

#3 Nobel economist Robert W. Fogel of the University of Chicago is projecting that the Chinese economy will be three times larger than the U.S. economy by the year 2040 if current trends continue.

If current trends continue and that would still leave the average Chinese person poorer than the average American

#4 Between 2000 and 2009, America's trade deficit with China skyrocketed nearly 300 percent.

Due largely to the recession and Chinese mercantilism, which is not sustainable in the long term

#5 Over the past 15 years, China has moved up from 14th place to 2nd place in the world in published scientific research articles.

Quantity is not quality

#6 Apple iPhones are manufactured in China by workers making about 293 dollars a month (and that was after a big raise).

Good for Apple. Less good for the American working class. Whether the salary is good for China would depend on the purchasing power of said dollars, without that context the statement is meaningless. If the Chinese are having large raises this makes them less competitive.

#7 In 2009, the United States ranked dead last of the 40 nations examined by the Information Technology & Innovation Foundation when it came to "change" in "global innovation-based competitiveness" over the previous ten years.

I'd imagine this is because America is already extremely competitive so they haven't changed. In much the same way, if Steve Redgrave always get gold at the Olympics then his change in their competitiveness is not altering. Is that a bad thing?

#8 According to one recent study, China could become the global leader in patent filings by next year.

Quantity is not quality, large population etc etc etc

#9 Today, China controls over 90 percent of the total global supply of rare earth elements.

Today being the operative word. This is a strategic concern for the west which needs sorting pdq. Having said that, China does not have a monopoly on this, like the Arabs have one on oil.

#10 According to a disturbing new study by the Economic Policy Institute, if the trade deficit with China continues to increase at its current rate, the U.S. economy will lose over half a million jobs this year alone.

Again due to Chinese mercantilism, which is not sustainable long term (see Japan)

#11 China is now the number one producer in the world of wind and solar power.

That's excellent news. With China producing such large amounts it will drive down global prices and assist people in getting off grid.

#12 The United States has lost a staggering 32 percent of its manufacturing jobs since the year 2000.

This is a problem, but one that is reversible

#13 Russia and China have announced that they have decided to quit using the U.S. dollar and instead start using their own national currencies when trading with each other.

Am not sure what the volume of Chinese/Russian trade is and lack the knowledge as to the implications. There was a thread on this recently however.

#14 China now possesses the fastest supercomputer on the entire globe.

So what?

#15 In 2008, 1.2 billion cellphones were sold around the world. So how many of those cellphones were manufactured inside the United States? Zero.

Again, what of it?

#16 Today, the United States spends about $3.90 on Chinese goods for every $1 that China spends on goods from the United States.

I have already explained the reasons for this above - not necessarily a problem

#17 Now, close to half of all the graduate science students enrolled at colleges and universities in the United States are foreigners.

And?

#18 China now has the world's fastest train and the world's biggest high-speed rail network.

This is very impressive. A high speed rail network and infrastructure does assist China greatly. Having said that, they are far too obsessed with infrastructure and have not developed their internal market, whcih will lead to major problems in the future.

#19 Manufacturing employment in the U.S. computer industry is actually lower in 2010 than it was in 1975.

So what?

#20 China is now the number one supplier of components that are critical to the operation of U.S. defense systems.

This sounds like a nonsense. Are they implying that the Chinese are able to interfere with US defense systems? The US is the supplier of the operating system running on, what, 99% of Chinese computers. Is this a massive problem for the Chinese?

#21 Over the past several decades, China has been able to accumulate approximately $2.5 trillion in foreign currency reserves, and the U.S. government now owes them close to 900 billion dollars.

This actually is a problem for China. They need to keep recycling the foreign currency reserves, as conversion to CNY will cause China to boil with inflation and lead to an appreciation of their currency, wiping out their mercantilist advantage. The US could default in the worse case scenario, leaving them with paper.

#22 Since 2001, over 42,000 U.S. factories have closed down for good.

For good? What does that mean?

#23 In 1985, the U.S. trade deficit with China was 6 million dollars for the entire year. In the month of August alone, the U.S. trade deficit with China was over 28 billion dollars.

Mercantilism, mercantilism, mercantilism

#24 According to author Clyde Prestowitz, China's number one export to the U.S. is computer equipment. #25 In 2010, the number one U.S. export to China is "scrap and trash".

Sounds like a geat deal to me - the US gets cheap computers, China poisoned trash.

Edited December 8, 2010 by FaFa!

[Guest_FaFa!_*]

At which they will turn their hand to weapons production and lots of it! And maybe turn to conquest to support their economy. I reckon they could easily make half a million poor quality tanks and IFVs. Western powers would be burgered as our tanks would long run out of ammo before the first wave was destroyed. So would our close air support and infantry anti tank missiles etc.

Sort of like the battle of Imjim river but with tanks and yet again we're the Glocs regiment.

Your usual nonsense

Where is this imaginary war being waged? How does war help the Chinese economy?

[aa3]

All of which will serve as massive overcapacity and ****** them in the anus in the vast deflationary holocaust they are about to suffer

They are desperately trying to create enough internal demand for their overproduction, this is the inflatoin they are suffering now. They will fail.

Its the challenge all the industrialized nations face. We all know how to do things like make cars in mass numbers.. but what we haven't figured out is how to get money into the hands of consumers to buy them.

The Chinese leaders at least state outright the problem is internal demand. I've read quotes of Wen Jiabao talking about it. It will be interesting to see if they can create that demand. So far western nations are failing at creating that demand and some seem to be giving up. But the Chinese state has much more power in the day to day economy and does not seem beholden to special interests.

[Guest_FaFa!_*]

The Chinese leaders at least state outright the problem is internal demand. I've read quotes of Wen Jiabao talking about it. It will be interesting to see if they can create that demand.

How do you think they will do that?

So far western nations are failing at creating that demand and some seem to be giving up. But the Chinese state has much more power in the day to day economy and does not seem beholden to special interests.

You think the state having power in the economy is a good thing? Big fan of the USSR I take it?

[ken_ichikawa]

Your usual nonsense

Where is this imaginary war being waged? How does war help the Chinese economy?

China has a large number of peeved off young people collectively called ants. When the unsustainable mercantilism stops as you say it will you suddenly have a huge problem with literally hundreds of millions without jobs. Without internal demand and a tendency to save lots of money it is hard to create an internal market. With everybody else broke it is hard to export.

So what do you do with several hundred million peeved off young men and women with no jobs? Make work in the UK has bankrupted us and there are far too many to be making non jobs.

You simply can't execute 200 million of your own people you can't even execute 10% of this without people noticing. And idle unemployed tend to be kinda dangerous and revolutionary.

So what do you do with a huge economic problem? You externalise your problems recruit them into the military and send them off to die. To keep the party (ccp) going for a bit longer. So while the population is angry at I dunno the Russians the Japanese or whatever, your own power base (the CCP) is kept relatively safe.

Hitler faced the same dilema back in the 30s war or bankruptcy. We all know how that ended didn't we?

Such pretexts are easy, self commit a terrorist attrocity in Beijing killing lots of Children (this is important) then blame it on a resource rich but poorly defended country.... say Kazakhstan (oil/gas) then 'peace keep' for a long time while stealing their oil....

However such things would never happen would they?

Edited December 8, 2010 by ken_ichikawa

[Guest_FaFa!_*]

China is oppressing it's people MUCH less than Western governments, the facts are obvious- China has much lower taxes, much lower costs of living due to less dacronian land planning laws and much cheaper startup costs for smal businesses.

Lower costs of living - relative to what? Try running any business of reasonable size in China and see how far you get before the officials want a cut. Small businesses don't get interfered with because they are small and thus not worth dealing with. My friend had a small shop. One day the govt decided to give her two weeks notice that they were demolishing her shop. Two weeks later, no shop, no job, no income. Happens all of the time in the UK, right?

I've lived in China for over a year

Not very long - once you have mastered the language (written and oral) then you'll start getting a better idea of how the place operates.

and never had any trouble from the police despite being a foreigner,

You haven't had problems because you are a foreigner and you don't know enough about China to work that out yet.

Frankly your post is embarassing in its ignorance. What exactly are you doing in China? If you have these opinions, I cannot believe you have many Chinese friends.

[aa3]

How do you think they will do that?

A first shot was the labour unrest at foreign companies we saw this year. With big pressure from media to raise wages at companies like Foxconn. I personally believe that was instigated by the Chinese government.

Longer term the Chinese leaders are talking about putting in place pensions and public health care so that people do not save excessively. Right now Chinese families save excessively in case health problems hit them, and for their old age.

You think the state having power in the economy is a good thing? Big fan of the USSR I take it?

I believe in a balance more like France. It also matters on which state. A lot of the reason Brits dont' want government intervention is bad management, incompetence. Like waiting lists for operations in Britain, versus hardly any waits in France. And terrible cost overruns when the British state pays for things.

[Guest_FaFa!_*]

So what do you do with several hundred million peeved off young men and women with no jobs? Make work in the UK has bankrupted us and there are far too many to be making non jobs.

The Germans could simply walk into the next country, which was actually worth invading. Where are the angry Chinese going? North Korea? An invasion of Siberia? Perhaps have a go at Kyrgyzstan? Attacking someone worthwhile such as Japan or the US involves power projection they simply don't have. They will not invade the others, they will turn on the govt. Economic collapse in China means civil war.

[ken_ichikawa]

The Germans could simply walk into the next country, which was actually worth invading. Where are the angry Chinese going? North Korea? An invasion of Siberia? Perhaps have a go at Kyrgyzstan? Attacking someone worthwhile such as Japan or the US involves power projection they simply don't have. They will not invade the others, they will turn on the govt. Economic collapse in China means civil war.

Central Asia has lots of oil and gas, it has land borders too. In Turkmenistan they have so much gas, people simply never turn the gas cookers off as it costs matches!

There is a hole in Turkmenistan which has been burning since the 1970s

There is also Taiwan, Siberia which is incredibly rich in oil, gold, coal etc for instance there is a gigantic cube of coal in siberia which took me days to ride past on my bike. I didn't know what it was until I got home and looked it up.

Edited December 8, 2010 by ken_ichikawa

[cells]

As long as you have good property laws. Relative freedom to make and do what you want. Then only population will determin the size of your economy so simply China will be biggest however their gdp per person will likely not surpass the US as that will likely remain the most productive and liquid market.

What China is doing seems logical so far. They are investing heavily in infrastructure while labour is cheap.

The challenge over the next 10 years is probably to build enough good quality homes to meet the requirements of the people before nimbyism and rent seeking truly kicks in.

If I were in control I would do my best to have built an excess of homes before the communists lose control to the fake capitalists as in the UK. That way rents will stay cheap for a generation or more. Think of how much better the quality of life would be if rents in the UK were half what they are. and Ofcourse rents have a link to prices.

[Milton]

Mao's Great Leap Forward 'killed 45 million in four years'

Chairman Mao, founder of the People's Republic of China, qualifies as the greatest mass murderer in world history.

And the Chinese people still do not know about it.

Very Scary place if you ask me.

Speaking at The Independent Woodstock Literary Festival, Frank Dikötter, a Hong Kong-based historian, said he found that during the time that Mao was enforcing the Great Leap Forward in 1958, in an effort to catch up with the economy of the Western world, he was responsible for overseeing "one of the worst catastrophes the world has ever known"

At least 45 million people were worked, starved or beaten to death in China over these four years; the worldwide death toll of the Second World War was 55 million.

Mr Dikötter is the only author to have delved into the Chinese archives since they were reopened four years ago. He argued that this devastating period of history – which has until now remained hidden – has international resonance. "It ranks alongside the gulags and the Holocaust as one of the three greatest events of the 20th century.... It was like [the Cambodian communist dictator] Pol Pot's genocide multiplied 20 times over," he said.

His book, Mao's Great Famine; The Story of China's Most Devastating Catastrophe, reveals that while this is a part of history that has been "quite forgotten" in the official memory of the People's Republic of China, there was a "staggering degree of violence" that was, remarkably, carefully catalogued in Public Security Bureau reports

State retribution for tiny thefts, such as stealing a potato, even by a child, would include being tied up and thrown into a pond; parents were forced to bury their children alive or were doused in excrement and urine, others were set alight, or had a nose or ear cut off.

People were forced to work naked in the middle of winter; 80 per cent of all the villagers in one region of a quarter of a million Chinese were banned from the official canteen because they were too old or ill to be effective workers, so were deliberately starved to death.

one piece of evidence revealed that 13,000 opponents of the new regime were killed in one region alone, in just three weeks.

The suppression of the worlds worst genocide carried out by the state, cannot be healthy for any nation. Never mind one that was carried out against its own people. And the present totalitarian government is the direct descendant of Mao's.

Following an economic collapse, civil war would seem like one possibility.

No wonder they ban Google!!

Edited December 8, 2010 by Dan1