scepticus Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 My view has always been, whatever is going on in the MSM at any point in time is completely irrelevant, its a follower not a leader That is a fatal miscalculation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confounded Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Wow, financial press, blogs and forums are well into a Santa rally atm. Everything is so bullish I am starting questioning my stance! It appears we are reaching capitulation amongst the bears.. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/confessions-former-bear http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jllJ-HeErjU&feature=player_embedded http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vEcEkkOBNpA A longer version worth watching http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/7955331 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/7955331 Don't fight the Fed! Some godo advice there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Democorruptcy Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Wow, financial press, blogs and forums are well into a Santa rally atm. Everything is so bullish I am starting questioning my stance! It appears we are reaching capitulation amongst the bears.. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/confessions-former-bear Thanks for that link. I think she fancied me because she blew me a kiss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 After more than 18 months since stumbling across HPC via an excellent article on K Winters and waiting for the various markets to reach potential price targets its finally time for me to switch over to the dark side of Bear Status. Technically great potential for a reversal from these values, ( if its still a nominal price bear market id say it pretty much has to reverse from these levels) Sentiment wise although for completely different reasons to 07 the extreme asset price bullishness is about as perfect as it gets for a top In homage to CGNAO by Mid 2013 Halifax Index 164K to 100K FTSE 5890 to 2500 Dow 11420 to 4000 Gold 1394 to 500 Silver 2673 to 850 GBP/USD 1.62 to Sub Parity Protect Yourself - Buy A Fondue Set Disclaimer: The information/material provided in this post may be misleading due to the owners keyboard running out of zeros, the poster expressly disclaims to the maximum limit permissible by law, all warranties, express or implied, including, but not limiting to implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose all responsibility for any loss, injury, liability or damage of any kind resulting from and arising out of this post, very few cats were harmed in any way in the creation of this post I am still wearing my Synical Sam hat. My forecast for 2011 is more trouble for the Euro and a resurging US economy. Barclays think the £ will go to 1.80 which seems extreme IMO. Waiting to see some evidence that we are going to pay for the Brown years. I thought it had to happen because Uncle Miltie woud say it was a big lunch and it has to be paid for. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 I am still wearing my Synical Sam hat. My forecast for 2011 is more trouble for the Euro and a resurging US economy. Barclays think the £ will go to 1.80 which seems extreme IMO. Waiting to see some evidence that we are going to pay for the Brown years. I thought it had to happen because Uncle Miltie woud say it was a big lunch and it has to be paid for. Uncle Miltie? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confounded Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Thanks for that link. I think she fancied me because she blew me a kiss. I thought that would brighten someone's day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 no, in your example your income from investments entirely funds your consumption. so you don't need to work. so if everyone was in the same position, noone would have to do any work. or perhaps that is not what you meant. People would still consume though? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confounded Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Has Ben managed to turn a deflationary depression in an inflationary depression. Signs he is winning the battle? http://www.zerohedge.com/article/deflationists-take-note-bernanke-succeeds-offsetting-shadow-banking-collapse Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fully Detached Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Has Ben managed to turn a deflationary depression in an inflationary depression. Signs he is winning the battle? http://www.zerohedge.com/article/deflationists-take-note-bernanke-succeeds-offsetting-shadow-banking-collapse Thanks - maybe this ought to have its own thread? If ZH are right then it's big news IMO Up until now the one and only defense that those who anticipate continued asset price declines was that on a net basis, the monetary system was still contracting. That is now no longer the case. And now, ironically, all that remains is for a very much cornered Ben Bernanke to convince people that the economy is getting better, resulting in a surge in net borrowings, and a spike in monetary velocity, and... hello Weimar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Democorruptcy Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 After more than 18 months since stumbling across HPC via an excellent article on K Winters and waiting for the various markets to reach potential price targets its finally time for me to switch over to the dark side of Bear Status. Technically great potential for a reversal from these values, ( if its still a nominal price bear market id say it pretty much has to reverse from these levels) Sentiment wise although for completely different reasons to 07 the extreme asset price bullishness is about as perfect as it gets for a top In homage to CGNAO by Mid 2013 Halifax Index 164K to 100K FTSE 5890 to 2500 Dow 11420 to 4000 Gold 1394 to 500 Silver 2673 to 850 GBP/USD 1.62 to Sub Parity I was reminded of this thread by this article: TOKYO/NEW YORK (Xetra: A0DKRK - news) (Reuters) - A coordinated move by central banks of rich nations to stabilise the yen appeared to be working on Friday, tamping its value down after Japan (NYSE: MCO - news) 's devastating earthquake and nuclear crisis triggered a yen surge and raised fears about the global economy. The action by the Group of Seven, in which they poured billions of dollars into markets, was the first joint intervention in currency markets since the G7 came to the aid of the newly launched euro in 2000. The U.S. dollar surged two full yen to as much as 81.98 yen in response, up from a record low of 76.25 hit on Thursday. It dropped back to under 81 yen in early afternoon trade but remained above what some analysts suggested was a psychologically important level of 80 that could heighten chances of more intervention. The G7 move reflected concern that a soaring yen could curb Japan's exports and throw the world's third largest economy back into recession, slowing global growth and sapping market confidence. http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/G7-central-banks-take-rare-reuters_molt-1772304813.html?x=0 TPTB clubbing together to prevent anything that they don't like. What's going to loosen their grip to bring about your crash? Are you sure it hasn't already happened late 2008 and now we are in a different world where "markets" as we used to know them, don't exist anymore? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 I was reminded of this thread by this article: TPTB clubbing together to prevent anything that they don't like. What's going to loosen their grip to bring about your crash? Are you sure it hasn't already happened late 2008 and now we are in a different world where "markets" as we used to know them, don't exist anymore? I am slowly waking up to "buy the dip" - later I know but better late than never. I just wish the 10 or 20 percent DOW correction would happen - will it ever - so that they can then manipulate the DOW to soar through 14,000 and beyond. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kilham Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 (edited) I remember a few years ago the Bulls taunting us saying 'They'll never let it happen' and we said 'what are they going to do to stop it?', maybe even said 'what will they do, print billions of pounds?'. Sometimes being the only sane person in the asylum is crazy. Edit: Grammerrr Edited March 20, 2011 by Kilham Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Georgia O'Keeffe Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 (edited) I was reminded of this thread by this article: TPTB clubbing together to prevent anything that they don't like. What's going to loosen their grip to bring about your crash? Are you sure it hasn't already happened late 2008 and now we are in a different world where "markets" as we used to know them, don't exist anymore? patience my young padawan, the market form looks fine to me, the decline of 07/08 is one of the main reasons im confident these are just bear rallies, taking the FTSE (but its the same in them all) the 07/08 decline is perfectly impulsive in nature, thats hugely important information, in 09 the completion of the impulsive move signalled a fib retrace rally from 3600 to at least 5700, that is the minimum level the FTSE should have reached, whilst its rallied to 6100 thats at least a couple of hundred higher than expected but the rally unlike the decline is not impulsive which is important information. Impulsive forms are always (unless part of a flat) trending, non impulsive forms are counter corrections to a trend, you have the same form on the Halifax down and up which is why im confident it will also take out its lows of 09 rather than its 07 highs So in short i still think its fine and TPTB have always been a constant in the market, every tax, law, price fix since dot is part of the market , they havent suddenly entered it in the last couple of years, i doubt they actively planned to implode the banking system when they zirped in 03 but that was the natural result. I view this bear market in equities as lasting at least 20 years from 2000 to 202? ultimately finishing with the usual 90%er at about 700 points. Theres already been 2 major falls and 2 major rallies and there will be more of both getting more volatile as the decade goes on if its doing what i think it is but ultimately i think 11 thru 13 are going to be down years to around the levels suggested in the original post. Only if the markets go above 07 highs would my long term view change The only one i have reservations about is USD/GBP which whilst im still confident it will go sub parity through 13, i think it may get to about 1.80 (another standard Fib retrace of the 07/09 decline)this year before resuming the trend started in 07 However im happy to admit from a trading perspective the timing of this switch has been a bit sh!tty but from an investment perspective its reasonable as long as it happens Edited March 20, 2011 by Tamara De Lempicka Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Georgia O'Keeffe Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 I used your post as a stimulus for my own timing, and I don't think it was so bad. For a start, it all went very well short term, and even since then, when it turned against me, the major moves away all seemed to meet unforeseen world events that kept the lid on them, and made them easier to bear, financially. (The world events, less so.) As a general view, I still think it is faced the right way. Well its interesting that whilst the west has moved higher since Nov, the markets that are meant to be driving this recovery (the Brics) all indeed topped in November, its a nice divergence highlighting the underlying weakness in the global economy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Well its interesting that whilst the west has moved higher since Nov, the markets that are meant to be driving this recovery (the Brics) all indeed topped in November, its a nice divergence highlighting the underlying weakness in the global economy The Brics may have topped November time. When wil lthe S&p/Dow, FTSE, top? Just asking as I like tops that are followed by big slide downs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Georgia O'Keeffe Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 (edited) The Brics may have topped November time. When wil lthe S&p/Dow, FTSE, top? Just asking as I like tops that are followed by big slide downs. well id go out on a limb and say the FTSE has likely topped and wont go above that 6100, but im not sure on the Dow, if i was a betting man id say it will probably top towards the end of the year at around the 12500 level and whilst i think there may be further declines coming in the next 3 months i dont currently think you will get an 08 type fall until the start the start of next year Edited March 21, 2011 by Tamara De Lempicka Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 well id go out on a limb and say the FTSE has topped and wont go above that 6100, but im not sure on the Dow, if i was a betting man id say it will probably top towards the end of the year at around the 12500 level and whilst i think there are decent further declines coming in the next 3 months i dont currently think you will get an 08 type fall until the start the start of next year Hmm, interesting. I have no idea. The DJIA may have another 500 or 600 points in it. I have no idea. QE has so queered everything. US shares look incredibly bubbly at the moment. I am leaning to Bernanke carrying on QE2 into QE3 as the markets will crash without a continuation. Of course, there are some who say that they are going to engineer a crash - no idea what benefit that would be to Bernanke & Co unless you believe in conspiracy theories about the banks doing massive shorts and luring in retail 'Jo Public' investors first. If he does continue QE2 into QE3 then it will be apparent a few months prior to any formal annoucement I guess - perhaps the well-connected wil be given a nod and a wink - so that by the time he makes it formal the markets will already have risen further. I just read this below. I have no opinion on it other than I just came across it whilst googling. Dow Headed For 35% Correction March-April 2011? Edit to add link: http://goldstockmania.com/dow-headed-for-35-correction-march-april-2011/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Democorruptcy Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 patience my young padawan, the market form looks fine to me, the decline of 07/08 is one of the main reasons im confident these are just bear rallies, taking the FTSE (but its the same in them all) the 07/08 decline is perfectly impulsive in nature, thats hugely important information, in 09 the completion of the impulsive move signalled a fib retrace rally from 3600 to at least 5700, that is the minimum level the FTSE should have reached, whilst its rallied to 6100 thats at least a couple of hundred higher than expected but the rally unlike the decline is not impulsive which is important information. Impulsive forms are always (unless part of a flat) trending, non impulsive forms are counter corrections to a trend So in short i still think its fine and TPTB have always been a constant in the market, every tax, law, price fix since dot is part of the market , they havent suddenly entered it in the last couple of years, i doubt they actively planned to implode the banking system when they zirped in 03 but that was the natural result. I view this bear market in equities as lasting at least 20 years from 2000 to 202? ultimately finishing with the usual 90%er at about 700 points. Theres already been 2 major falls and 2 major rallies and there will be more of both getting more volatile as the decade goes on if its doing what i think it is but ultimately i think 11 thru 13 are going to be down years to around the levels suggested. Only if the markets go above 07 highs would my long term view change The only one i have reservations about is USD/GBP which whilst im still confident it will go sub parity through 13, i think it may get to about 1.80 (another standard Fib retrace of the 07/09 decline)this year before resuming the trend started in 07 However im happy to admit from a trading perspective the timing of this switch has been a bit sh!tty but from an investment perspective its reasonable as long as it happens USD/GDP to 1.80 to 1.90 mid-2011 is a Nadeem Walayat prediction. That's the first time you have any common ground. May the force be with you.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Dow Headed For 35% Correction March-April 2011? I think perhaps World War Two starting just before that drop may have had something to do with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Yes, I think that's the wrong period of history - if it's '1930s-anything', we are in the early 30s, IMO. (And most of me thinks we are in brand new territory. A 'time-mixture' of just after the bursting of the South Sea bubble three hundred year ago, all swooshed up with the latest high-tech, central banking, e-money madness. Worthy of a Doctor Who episode.) Between the 29 and 31 crashes? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Number79 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 USD/GDP to 1.80 to 1.90 mid-2011 is a Nadeem Walayat prediction. That's the first time you have any common ground. May the force be with you.... Nadeem has been pretty good so far but what worries me is that GS forecast $1.90 this year too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fishbone Glover Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Yes, I think that's the wrong period of history - if it's '1930s-anything', we are in the early 30s, IMO. (And most of me thinks we are in brand new territory. A 'time-mixture' of just after the bursting of the South Sea bubble three hundred year ago, all swooshed up with the latest high-tech, central banking, e-money madness. Worthy of a Doctor Who episode.) I've been reading a rather interesting book called The History of the Commercial Crisis 1857-1858 and there are very interesting parallels between the situation in which we find ourselves now, and the conditions back then. Particularly with regard to credit expansion and excessive speculation. I can't quite make my mind up yet about where we are, but I think we're somewhere between 1848 and 1857, just everything seems to be happening at a much slower pace this time around. The more I read about economics, the more I believe that there is, in fact, nothing new under the sun and we are condemned to keep repeating the same mistakes! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Georgia O'Keeffe Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 (edited) I've been reading a rather interesting book called The History of the Commercial Crisis 1857-1858 and there are very interesting parallels between the situation in which we find ourselves now, and the conditions back then. Particularly with regard to credit expansion and excessive speculation. I can't quite make my mind up yet about where we are, but I think we're somewhere between 1848 and 1857, just everything seems to be happening at a much slower pace this time around. The more I read about economics, the more I believe that there is, in fact, nothing new under the sun and we are condemned to keep repeating the same mistakes! that period (railway mania) was probably most similar in that the driving force behind it was a) a technological boom that caused the original malinvestment b ) an extreme level of corruption in westminster where MPs interests were perfectly aligned with the boom I still think this bear market degree wise is a sister to the the 1930s bear market and whilst the outcome will likely be identical (90% asset price decline) it will happen in a much more similar choppy way to the 60s / 70s bear market just at a larger degree Edited March 20, 2011 by Tamara De Lempicka Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erranta Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 What a load of nonsense. But I will have some of what you are smoking. When the time comes, the establishment will make it illegal to hold physical gold/silver - just like they did in the USA in the Thirties! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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