What Did I Tell You All About Iran

[privatefraser]

the Guardian and BBC have been softening us up for war with Iran for ages now.

Bush finally admitted that was his game plan last night.

[OLDFTB]

the Guardian and BBC have been softening us up for war with Iran for ages now.

Bush finally admitted that was his game plan last night.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Wake up. Bush has been making the same threats for several years. Iran is one of his "Axis of Evil" countries. Do you not follow current affairs on a regular basis?!!!

[deano]

Don't believe it. USA may vandalise nuclear facilities with cruise missiles but thats it. More likely to sanction Iran.

Iran is changing rapidly, I think the threat of a wayward nuclear power is diminishing. Iran has no history of invading its neigbours like Iraq or using WMD on its own people. The new leader thier is hardline but not an idiot like Saddam. Maybe he's driving a hard bargain. They want thier religous leaders out of the way and eventually I think they will get that.

PrivateFraser will now kick the **** out of me, I'm used to it.

[blackbrogue]

For what it's worth the USA could not even contemplate invading Iran until a Iraq had become a stable, democratic ally of the West. I don't see that happening anytime soon, do you Private Fraser?

[theChuz]

At _worst_ the UN will target nuclear plants, more than likely give them warning too telling all personale to get away from it.

America going for full out war on Iran is unlikely, tatical strikes on nuclear plants by the UN is most likely.

From what i can tell negotiations have been going on for ages now i.e years with the UN et all offering nuclear fuel to iran so they dont need to enrich there own, or something to that effect.

Again from what i can tell there is no real reason for Iran going nuclear it is not necessary.

This isnt just America on a rant, its pretty much the rest of the world saying "oh no you dont".

[Harry Sacks]

Don't bank on it. America wants the oil, there is a brutal regime running in Iran and bush will, and is using any excuse, fact or fiction, to get it. We are currently being media groomed for war.

Bush knows the consequences if Arab countries shun the dollar and set up their own currency- the empire will fall.

That's why the yanks hate the French so much, they were trying to buy oil in Euros from Saddam before it all kicked off.

[A Fool & His Borrowed Money]

At _worst_ the UN will target nuclear plants,

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Is that such a good idea?,

think Chernobyl,

tosser's in america's Power Circles dont give a shit who they harm or cause pain to

[ETOPS773]

I cannot see the sense in a full scale invasion with troops. Invading Iran won't get them anywhere. Americas problem doesn't seem like last time in Iraq (them wanting regime change) all they want is that nuclear plant gone, or inspected by international authorities.

I think the best they can do is air / cruise missile strikes to destroy the complex - and its far more likely that Israel would carry out that type of strike, not the USA.

Please enlighten me, if Iran had nuclear weapons, who would be their target? and how would they deliver the payload to the target? No ICBMs in their arsenal as yet....

[Harry Sacks]

Please enlighten me, if Iran had nuclear weapons, who would be their target? and how would they deliver the payload to the target? No ICBMs in their arsenal as yet....

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Exactly, its not about nukes, thats the excuse, it's about Iran being 90% shiite and run by Islamic clerics.

[Ah-so]

it's about Iran being 90% shiite

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Come on, it's not that bad. It's nice in places.

[clv101]

the Guardian and BBC have been softening us up for war with Iran for ages now.

Bush finally admitted that was his game plan last night.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

An attack on Iran is impossible, it would be global economic suicide. Iran produces ~4million barrels of oil per day, losing that in today's market of flat-out global production would be a disaster.

The reason for Iran's nuclear programme? They know that their own oil is in trouble, 7.5% decline last year. Iran doesn't have much else to offer the world, dates and carpets just won't cut it. Iran knows the whole world will (rightly or wrongly) look to nuclear as oil depletion set in and Iran wants a new export. Their research will allow them to be a regional exporter of a lucrative technology.

Edited August 13, 2005 by clv101

[deano]

An attack on Iran is impossible, it would be global economic suicide. Iran produces ~4million barrels of oil per day, losing that in today's market of flat-out global production would be a disaster.

The reason for Iran's nuclear programme? They know that their own oil is in trouble, 7.5% decline last year. Iran doesn't have much else to offer the world, dates and carpets just won't cut it. Iran knows the whole world will (rightly or wrongly) look to nuclear as oil depletion set in and Iran wants a new export. Their research will allow them to be a regional exporter of a lucrative technology.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Why buy Irans nuclear technology when the French have it tried and tested. Its about having the bomb, frighten thy neigbours with out threatening them.

The Iranian goverment are acting aggressively, they won't earn any friends.

[Harry Sacks]

Come on, it's not that bad. It's nice in places.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

No doubt

Irans proven reserves are geater than Iraqs, 125000 million barrels and their output is nearly twice that of Iraqs.

[clv101]

No doubt

Irans proven reserves are geater than Iraqs, 125000 million barrels and their output is nearly twice that of Iraqs.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yet the extraction rate (and rate is the only thing that matters) is falling, fell 7.5% from last year to this.

Iran has extracted about 56 billion barrels to date. As we all know extraction rates start to fall once about 50% has been extracted, for their peak not to be around now their URR would have to be significantly above 112bn which they probably aren't. The Oil and Gas Journal (1/1/05) states Iran holds 125.8 billion barrels but that includes the wild OPEC revisions (without any geological finds) of the 1980's when their quotas became based on stated reserves. Many agree it's safe to take 20-30 bn barrels off Iran's stated reserves.

[Harry Sacks]

Yet the extraction rate (and rate is the only thing that matters) is falling, fell 7.5% from last year to this.

Iran has extracted about 56 billion barrels to date.  As we all know extraction rates start to fall once about 50% has been extracted, for their peak not to be around now their URR would have to be significantly above 112bn which they probably aren't.  The Oil and Gas Journal (1/1/05) states Iran holds 125.8 billion barrels but that includes the wild OPEC revisions (without any geological finds) of the 1980's when their quotas became based on stated reserves.  Many agree it's safe to take 20-30 bn barrels off Iran's stated reserves.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So what is their current production and what is Iraqs?

[clv101]

So what is their current production and what is Iraqs?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Iran's just under 4 million and Iraq's a bit over 1 million, what's your point?

[Sledgehead]

I think clv & Dom both have points and thank you both for collating the oil figs here.

I don't have any special insight on this topic. Normally one would accept the "media grooming" theory, given the US administration's track record.

Thing is, as I understand it, the US military is seriously overstretched.

However:

1 . last month when (was it?) Don Rumsfeld visited Iraq, the Iraqi PM requested that US troops leave Iraq as soon as possible.... [for what?]

On this matter US folks back home want their kids home, so even if they left Iraq political will may be lacking.

2 . maybe they hope the UN will be persuaded to do the job.

The more militarily clued up may care to comment. Cheers

Edited August 13, 2005 by Sledgehead

[Harry Sacks]

Iran's just under 4 million and Iraq's a bit over 1 million, what's your point?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'm not trying to make a point, just want to know the who is most productive.

[privatefraser]

I'm not trying to make a point, just want to know the who is most productive.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

what you are all overlloking is Iran's gas - 2nd largest reserves in the worlds after russia.

guess which couintry will be 90 % dependent on gas imports by 2020 and will be powering 40 % of its power stations using the imported gas from Iran.

the UK .

tough shit Iran. youve got the gas but we need it to keep us warm in the winter,

therefore we will invoke Marxist principles to get the gas.

"FROM THOSE ACCORDING TO THEIR ABILITY (TO PRODUCE ) TO THOSE ACCORDING TO THEIR NEEDS (WE NEED THE GAS AND IRAN DONT) "

thus it all comes full circle and Marxist ideology can be used to justify imperialism.

plus we can also cite human rights esp women's rights for regime change which always plays well with the liberals and interventionist lefties who read the Guardian.

[Cornish Pasty]

I travelled overland for a while through Iran in 1995 and I can honestly say I have never met such humble, kind and genuine people throughout.

I dread us getting involved in a war and killing the people and families I met there.

The thing is what ever way you look at it, most average people were terribly oppressed and pissed of at not being allowed to hold hands in public or play cards. Those in there 20s especially felt bad about this.

Went to a birthday party and on the way picked up some illegal booze from a petrol station! in a plasic bag.

When we got there ad shared it out everyone got really pissed. we had ours and felt nothing it was hilarious.

At the borders are massive posters exclaiming 'death to US and USSR', and we had some really bad scares a couple of times with police bursting into our room etc.

I would recommend to any traveller a visit. It is an amazing country culturally and physically.

Long live the Iranian people.

C.P

[Rapid Descent]

I'm not trying to make a point, just want to know the who is most productive.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Iran was producing 6 million barrels per day back in the 70's (before the Iran/Iraq war) and could easily achieve that again if they got sufficient investment for infrastructure that has been damaged.

They have a couple of new fields coming on line in the next 2-3 years so expect their production to increase then.

Most of their production goes to China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and some to Europe

[privatefraser]

Iran was producing 6 million barrels per day back in the 70's (before the Iran/Iraq war) and could easily achieve that again if they got sufficient investment for infrastructure that has been damaged.

They have a couple of new fields coming on line in the next 2-3 years so expect their production to increase then.

Most of their production goes to China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and some to Europe

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

but their gas comes here and will be coming here in ever larger quantities as ours runs out.

[TW11]

Maybe the Iranians arent so scared of Bush. Everyone knows that they wouldn't stand a chance if they drew a line in the sand and met the Americans head on. No, that's not the way. Maybe the way to beat them is to allow them in and draw them into a guerilla war - like we are now seeing in Iraq. The Russians couldn't win such a war in Afganistan and the Americans are struggling to do so in Iraq. Lets see how keen the American electorate are on a long drawn out guerilla war with a regular flow of body bags coming home to the US.

Either way, I'm astonished that this is even on the cards. WTF is Bush playing at? the world has gone mad.

[Rapid Descent]

but their gas comes here and will be coming here in ever larger quantities as ours runs out.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

True, although I believe the supply/demand balance for global gas is less precarious than oil is at present. And this crisis is probably going to be resolved one way or another in the shorter term.

Although it would be nice for the UK to have some slack in its energy generation so we have flexibility if fuel supplies undergo any kind of disruption.

[deano]

I travelled overland for a while through Iran in 1995 and I can honestly say I have never met such humble, kind and genuine people throughout.

I dread us getting involved in a war and killing the people and families I met there.

The thing is what ever way you look at it, most average people were terribly oppressed and pissed of at not being allowed to hold hands in public or play cards. Those in there 20s especially felt bad about this.

Went to a birthday party and on the way picked up some illegal booze from a petrol station! in a plasic bag.

When we got there ad shared it out everyone got really pissed. we had ours and felt nothing it was hilarious.

At the borders are massive posters exclaiming 'death to US and USSR', and we had some really bad scares a couple of times with police bursting into our room etc.

I would recommend to any traveller a visit. It  is an amazing country culturally and physically.

Long live the Iranian people.

C.P

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I am supposed to be going to Iran in a couple of months. Invited by Iranians in the UK; I'm having serious second thoughts now. I fear the place and of being mistreated by the police if anything kicks off when I am thier. Anyone been there recently tell me if lilly white caucasians attract unwanted attention from the authorities and do they hate the British, am I going to be safe!.