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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by clv101

  1. Plenty of folks were saying this before the last election. Why will the next election burst the dam when the previous one didn't?
  2. Urm, plenty of folks said that last decade! I think people need to think long and hard about why their crash projections the best part of a decade ago were wrong and how the same thinking can be right today.
  3. This scheme just sounds like a 5 year interest free loan for 20% of the house value? Buy a house for £200k and you only actually have to hand over £160k with the other £40k being paid by the gov. After five years interest (fees) have to be paid but they aren't very high and linked to RPI - also the lump sum can just be paid off at any time. If and when the house is sold, you have to repay the £40k or 20% of sale price whichever is larger, however if the house is likely to sell for more meaning you have to pay back more than £40k, surely you'd be better to pay back the £40k before the sale went through. One thing I haven't worked out is whether you need a mortgage at all. All the examples talk about 5% deposits, 20% government loan and 75% mortgage. What about 80% 'deposit' and 20% gov. loan?
  4. It never ceases to amaze me how much attention fuel prices receive. We have a huge amount of control. In the face of prices literally only changing by a few percent we can choose to drive at 55mph or 75mph saving dramatically more than price change. Most of us can reduce our mileage a bit by cutting out a trip every now and then, working from home occasionally, car sharing once in a while etc. In the longer term we can choose to drive a car that does 30, 50 or even knocking on 70mpg, again a difference dramatically greater than the price change. In short; I see small price changes in the grand scheme of things, I see a lot of control over our fuel use and yet a major overreaction by a lot of people.
  5. Expectation, aspiration... those who own houses (especially those with large mortgages and little capital) see house price inflation as a way of making money. Even those who don't own property yet aspire to step onto the perceived escalator. Despite the fact that house price inflation makes it harder, they haven't given up hope and expect one day to buy, hence they don't want to very thing they are aspiring to to fail. As with many things, I think the media has a large role in shaping this perception. Why is inflation reported by media as negative thing except house price inflation, which is reported as a wholly positive phenomenon?
  6. Looks like gold prices are currently up ~5% on the back end of last week... there's certainly money to be made for the brave/lucky!
  7. Who (which central banks I presume) has been selling large quantities of gold in the last few months to drive the price so low? If/when equities crash - if it reasonable for gold to become attractive again?
  8. Interesting day! Started around £28k /kg and currently stands at £26,760 /kg, -4.4%. Hasn't been this low since Sept 2010. Over the last three months since 20th March the price has fallen some 21%. I don't really understand why so much money is piling back into equities though, the global economy us still fundamentally broken. Why the recent switch away from gold?
  9. I wouldn't say it's clear that gold is going down. Is the gold price positively correlated with the stock market? Could you expand on the chain of events leading to the gold price halving during the next year? This seems pretty dramatic and would need some persuasive arguments to take seriously.
  10. Wow, which raises the question, where is Hong Kong importing gold from?
  11. After the dip in gold price around three weeks ago followed by partial recovery - the last couple of weeks have been remarkably stable. Anyone have any thoughts about that? Where can I see the actual daily volume of gold being traded? Has last months excitement died down now?
  12. Very unlikely, Europe simply doesn't have the natural resource foundation to become a superpower.
  13. Following on from FreeTrader's chart... I drew this chart a few weeks ago: It's been an interesting decade! I doubt whether any country (outside of wars and natural disasters) has ever experienced such a change over so little time. Whilst that chart is in energy terms, the economic shift is far more dramatic. In the late 90s when our exports were at their highest, oil was under $20 per barrel, today with high imports it's more like $100. Sell low, buy high! That's not right...
  14. Yeah, where does one buy cheap panels? Not bothered about FiT and having them installed, just the panels?
  15. Is it the case that you can find work nearby an affordable house in France and not the UK? What kind of work can you do?
  16. No, it's easy to work out. Start with £1.45, take of 20% VAT = £1.21. Then take of the 58p duty leaving 63 pence /litre.
  17. Yeah - but the government would have found something else to tax you on the make up the shortfall and you'd be driving a car lucky to do 20mpg. So you'd be worse off on balance.
  18. Of course it's oil prices. Last week oil hit a new record price in both Euros and Serling, topping the previous 2008 high. The tax on fuel is a pretty good thing as if it weren't collected on fuel it would have to be collected else where and it encourages us to drive more efficient cars - hence Europe has twice the vehicle efficiency of America. Seeing as we and Europe as a whole are net importers of oil, reducing our oil imports directly helps our balance of payments benefiting the national economy at large.
  19. Over 90% of the UK population now live in urban areas. This makes Britain one of the most urbanised countries in the world. In Europe only the principality of Monaco, the republic of San Marino, Belgium and Iceland have higher urban proportions. In 1970 this figure was 77%. Do the British really like living in urban areas, or are we compromising something? In Ireland, the figure is only 62%.
  20. There's an interesting comment. What do you mean by "productive". Large scale farming has relatively low productivity per acre (because land and especially land tax is cheap) and relatively low productivity per unit input energy (because energy in the form of diesel, petrochemical fertilizers, pesticides etc. are cheap). On both these metrics small scale farming is considerably better than large scale farming. The only metric where large scale farming wins is in productivity per unit labour - in part because labour is taxed so highly! This is also why, in the UK we now only have 0.7% of people working in primary agriculture. In coming decades we can expect the cheap energy that has enabled one farmer to farm a 1000 acres to dry up, we can also expect unemployment to remain a problem. The win-win scenario here is to increase the number of people working in agriculture and potentially even increase productivity as the fossil fuel subsidy declines. Remember, large scale farming is only labour efficient. It is not land or energy efficient.
  21. Is it really that clear? We know paper assets are dramatically over sold. We know the governments all over the world are injecting cash into the system in a (futile?) attempt to maintain business as usual. Shouldn't this mean hard assets appreciate? That obviously includes gold... but less obviously isn't (decent) property also a tangible, hard asset that we could see a lot of paper money flood toward?
  22. I'd like to see how house prices evolved since the 1970s in different counties of the UK. Does anyone know where county level data can be downloaded from? I see Nationwide have regional data, but I'd really like to see higher resolution. Thanks!
  23. No way! Surely it's clear to anyone with any analytical ability that the market still has far to fall, maybe the same magnitude fall again (another 20% from peak). The noise in the media about 'recovery' is just that, noise. No way are house prices going to stop falling without unemployment improving, no way does such a long boom and bubble end with such a short, shallow drop, no way does the worst global recession in several generations have such a minor impact on house prices. All we're seeing now is a small number of silly people with more money than sense.
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