bomberbrown Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 I want house prices to go down, I'm no longer daft enough to think they will. Either they will come down, or wages will go up. Take your pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest_FaFa!_* Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 (edited) I want house prices to go down, I'm no longer daft enough to think they will. Another way of looking at it is this. Despite unprecedented money printing and nationalisation of the banks, mortgage lending is at historical lows and house prices, whilst apparently going up overall, are down or flatlining in many areas - the picture is extremely regional and based on a small number of transactions. The lesson of the last year has been to know your market, not examine the national picture via house prices indices. Whilst the markets are waiting until the election aftermath to make their final judgment on the UK, I think you have to question the sanity of those who assume house prices will rise. The sensible thing would be to wait and see at this point. Edited February 25, 2010 by shylock Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepLurker Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 The real muppets are the taxpayers who ultimately act as a backstop for the muppet mortgage lender. :angry: Yup. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lets get it right Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 The sensible thing would be to wait and see at this point. Been waiting and seeing for 6 years now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mal Volio Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 house prices, whilst apparently going up overall, are down or flatlining in many areas - the picture is extremely regional and based on a small number of transactions. ^This I think it's uniquely different depending just where you are and just which sector of the market you're looking at I live in an area where prices have been considered bombproof - the Guardian's "Let's Move To..." page once said that it would take a nuclear weapon to get price drops here - but it's clear to me that the price sector I'm looking at is populated by older people trying to downsize, and there is neither the will nor the finance here for many younger people to buy their big houses. It's a rural area with old money, and a lot of people who are "property-rich" but cash-poor, or at least only cash-middling. Hence, nothing I have any interest in is selling. It's very, very different from London, and it may well be rather different at the FTB end of the market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lets get it right Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 Either they will come down, or wages will go up. Take your pick. Where I live they have been way out of kilter with wages for at least 10 years. Where I live wages for semi-skilled jobs have been static for best part of 20 years - more if you look at the wages paid to people like bus drivers, lorry drivers, postmen, dustmen, forklift truck drivers, warehousemen, call centre workers (been earning 12k to 16 for donkeys years now). So, there is no either/or about it. Wages have been static for a long time. House prices have tripled. Seems to be little connection any more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lets get it right Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 The thing that makes me go "eh" is... Don't people budget? I mean, get a piece of paper and write down money coming in in one column and then money going out in the other? Because that would be all that is needed for them to see they won't be able to afford it. My only guess is they (and people like them) do but they fudge and bluster and put down £50 a month for food bills or something stupid, to make the sums "fit". They clearly don't go online and check mortgage calculators and click the "what if interest rates went to X%" because if they are scraping by now, imagine if rates went up. It never ceases to amaze me when people only see as far as their nose, in this case "getting a house" and don't look beyond to paying the debt. But worse, who the hell is lending them the money for the mortgage? Are they mad? Is it actually legal? If people budgeted - no-one would buy a house. A lender convinced that their money is secured against an asset that will rise in price is lending the money. They are not mad. Take a look at any graph of house prices over a 25 year period. Yes, it is legal. Our economy is both founded on it and depends on it. People who join in at the moment are certifiably insane. But, then again, we all are. We live in a society run by moneylenders and we slave all our lives to pay for something we could build in 12 weeks with help from a few mates. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lepista Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 If anyone still believes house prices can go down when, in the face of a credit crunch and the worst recession since the war they have gone up, then I think you have to question the sanity of people who believe house prices will go down. erm.... what was the average price at peak...? What is it now..? Can you do simple maths? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bomberbrown Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 Where I live they have been way out of kilter with wages for at least 10 years. Where I live wages for semi-skilled jobs have been static for best part of 20 years - more if you look at the wages paid to people like bus drivers, lorry drivers, postmen, dustmen, forklift truck drivers, warehousemen, call centre workers (been earning 12k to 16 for donkeys years now). So, there is no either/or about it. Wages have been static for a long time. House prices have tripled. Seems to be little connection any more. We've just had the biggest credit binge since the 30's. That is how wages and houseprices have become disconnected over the past decade. That credit has finally been crunched and the connection will once again become reconnected. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lets get it right Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 erm.... what was the average price at peak...? What is it now..? Can you do simple maths? Er how about this for simple maths. Where I live (and in the whole of the South East, London, South and South West (don't know about the rest of the country) ... House prices at Peak - House prices now = 0 Despite everything, credit crunch, recession, higher deposits, lower transactions ... prices now are the same as they were in 2007. No difference. Zilch. Nada. Zero. By any measure you care to use they are unaffordable - and have been now for getting on for 10 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 Er how about this for simple maths. Where I live (and in the whole of the South East, London, South and South West (don't know about the rest of the country) ... House prices at Peak - House prices now = 0 Despite everything, credit crunch, recession, higher deposits, lower transactions ... prices now are the same as they were in 2007. No difference. Zilch. Nada. Zero. By any measure you care to use they are unaffordable - and have been now for getting on for 10 years. are rentals equally unaffordable? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mal Volio Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 Er how about this for simple maths. Where I live (and in the whole of the South East, London, South and South West (don't know about the rest of the country) ... House prices at Peak - House prices now = 0 No, that's not so We lived in West Berks and sold there in very early 2008. We just got out before prices fell significantly, and got a tad less than 2007 peak prices. Prices of similar houses selling now are lower. I reckon about 10% down on 2007 at present. And that was an area that saw only quite modest rises from 2005-7. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest_FaFa!_* Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 Been waiting and seeing for 6 years now. Sorry to hear that. I have been waiting 4 years myself. Prices are not rising where I live (E Mids). Part of the reason I took a job around here was the greater affordability of property the further north you go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leicestersq Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 My brother in law and his girlfriend are house hunting. Fair enough you may think. However, my brother in law is a care worker who has recently had his hours reduced and his girlfriend is a mature drama student who is currently racking up student debts. Apparently her brother, who is canny enough to know house prices only go up, is lending them £30k as a deposit. I've been told they have a £100k mortgage arranged. WTF?! £15k joint income, is that legal?? Here's the really funny bit. He phoned my mother in law today, to ask to borrow money (after hardly phoning for the last 2 months) and asked if she thought I might be able to lend him some. LMAO, where to begin?!. I think I'd have as much chance of explaining why it is a very bad idea to buy now to him as to my 3 year old son. Feckless, clueless, muppetry beyond belief! You have it completely the wrong way round. When someone is unable to repay their debts, they would be wise to borrow as much as they can. It is those who are lending the money that you should have your concerns for. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lepista Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 Er how about this for simple maths. Where I live (and in the whole of the South East, London, South and South West (don't know about the rest of the country) ... House prices at Peak - House prices now = 0 Despite everything, credit crunch, recession, higher deposits, lower transactions ... prices now are the same as they were in 2007. No difference. Zilch. Nada. Zero. By any measure you care to use they are unaffordable - and have been now for getting on for 10 years. No, that's not so We lived in West Berks and sold there in very early 2008. We just got out before prices fell significantly, and got a tad less than 2007 peak prices. Prices of similar houses selling now are lower. I reckon about 10% down on 2007 at present. And that was an area that saw only quite modest rises from 2005-7. I refer you to the graph on the front page of HPC... http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neil B Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 Where I live they have been way out of kilter with wages for at least 10 years. Where I live wages for semi-skilled jobs have been static for best part of 20 years - more if you look at the wages paid to people like bus drivers, lorry drivers, postmen, dustmen, forklift truck drivers, warehousemen, call centre workers (been earning 12k to 16 for donkeys years now). So, there is no either/or about it. Wages have been static for a long time. House prices have tripled. Seems to be little connection any more. I would tend to agree up until 2007, however there just isnt any credit left. We cant compare what happened for the last 10 years to today. The market is dead, it cant stay dead for ever. So either prices come down to match the available mortgages or people's wages go up to inlflate the borrowing potential. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neil B Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 are rentals equally unaffordable? Not if you are a single mother from Sumalia with 7 kids and another on the way Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlie Don't Surf Posted February 25, 2010 Author Share Posted February 25, 2010 You have it completely the wrong way round. When someone is unable to repay their debts, they would be wise to borrow as much as they can. It is those who are lending the money that you should have your concerns for. Problem is most home owners in the UK will die trying to keep up their mortgage payments, especially when negative equity kicks in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScaredEitherWay Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 The OP has two brothers and only one sister. The OPs wife has 3 brothers and two sisters. The first brother is married. Only one sister is married. Which one? The pretty one, with the big boobs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 Problem is most home owners in the UK will die trying to keep up their mortgage payments, especially when negative equity kicks in. That's exactly why housing in the UK is going to be mentally cheap after the crash. When millions upon millions of people are paying down six figures of negative equity for nothing in return, that's not going to leave a lot of cash free to bid up house prices. We could see average house prices at 2x average (single) incomes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
juvenal Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 The pretty one, with the big boobs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 Problem is most home owners in the UK will die trying to keep up their mortgage payments, especially when negative equity kicks in. so the loan will be written off meaning the lender will tighten its criteria to offset losses. and the house will be auctioned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lets get it right Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 No, that's not so We lived in West Berks and sold there in very early 2008. We just got out before prices fell significantly, and got a tad less than 2007 peak prices. Prices of similar houses selling now are lower. I reckon about 10% down on 2007 at present. And that was an area that saw only quite modest rises from 2005-7. 10% is pretty hard to measure in any meaningful way. That said, I wouldn't claim my 'measurements' are any more accurate than yours. These figures show prices flat from 2007 to 2009 Prices in Newbury 2000 - 2009 and, interestingly, flats the same price now as they were in 2003. I think it's impossible to analyze the market down to the nearest 10%. You can only make generalizations that are likely to be 10% out. My end of Berks, I'd say prices are up a little on 2007. Prices in Wokingham 200 - 2009 although flats look to be down although I see no evidence of that myself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lets get it right Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 are rentals equally unaffordable? 3 bed semis in not particularly nice areas seem to rent out at a grand a month. Seems bonkers to me. I don't know how young people without savings on average wages can afford to live. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lets get it right Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 I refer you to the graph on the front page of HPC... http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/ I refer you to House prices in Wokingham 2000 - 2009 and Prices 2000 - 2009 in Newbury and House prices in Bristol 2000-2009 That graph on the front page bears no relationship to reality in some parts of the country. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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