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House Price Crash Forum

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Looks Like A Bargain
...

Considering Becoming A Rental Ll
I have been considering buying a couple of holiday homes in either Normandy or B...

Property Is A Better Bet Than Pensions, Says Gold-Plated Bank Guru
The Bank of England’s chief economist, Andy Haldane, has claimed that pr...

Can't Make It In The Uk? Tv Show For You To Be On
  Quitting the rat race to live off grid? Selling up to live in a far-flun...

Anger Grows Over Student Visa Crackdown
I News 26/8/16 'Theresa May is facing a growing backlash from leading figures in...

Crack Shack Or Mansion?
I find this video to be very acuarate of what we are seing nowadays.   He t...

I'm A Btl Landlord, Worried That My Government Subsidy Will Be Removed
See thread here Might be a troll, but, if not the sense of entitlement is breat...

I Refused A Liar Loan In 2006
Dear HPC, Here is the story of how I refused a LIAR LOAN: 2006, there's a proper...

Telegraph: North Beats South As Uk House Price Growth Divide Narrows
Telegraph: North beats South as UK house price growth divide narrows   ...

Buying A Small Property As A Hedge Against Gbp Debasement?
Hi all A very particular constellation of circumstances means I am considering b...

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Latest: House Price Crash News

Sunday, Aug 28 2016 Add a News Blog Article

HaHaHa The Specials were right but not for the reason they envisaged

Metro: The evergrowing list of London nightclub closures is completely unacceptable

Oh dear me, the price of property, rising rents, neighbours who like quiet and the greed of speculators and property developers. 'Destroying cultural hot spots in favour of empty blocks of luxury flats is the worst thing that we can do to this city.' London gets what it deserves now it doesn't belong to Londoners anymore.

Posted by enuii @ 08:39 PM 0 Comments

Will the huge surge to the right in Europe inpact house prices

Daily express: Favourite to be next Dutch PM vows to BAN the Koran and CLOSE all mosques

Europe is a tinder box ready to explode. Southern Mediterranean countries with 50% youth unemployment are full of angry young men. it has now spread to the North. The FAVOURITE for the Dutch elections has launched a manifesto where he will ban mosques, send immigrants home and not allow Jews or Muslims, none pork options in schools. Marine le Penn is becoming mainstream in France. In Germany the far right have been accelerating faster than any time in the last 70 years. Both Hungary and Poland elected right wing governments and are refusing refugees. in Austria after election fraud nulled the last election, it is almost sure that the far right wing candidate will get in. Europe is likely to implode before we finally leave the EU in two years. What will happen to our ponzi housing market?

Posted by britishblue @ 10:51 AM 0 Comments

"sales have slowed and prices fallen since the vote"

Guardian: Is Britain on the verge of a Brexit-fuelled house price crash? Only the data will tell

This week, exactly two months after the vote for Brexit, I spent an hour on the property site Zoopla looking at the latest housing sale data available. Anyone can do this at the click of a button. Unlike the rise in stamp duty in April, which was well anticipated, the vote to leave the EU was not. And all markets react most strongly to the unanticipated.

Posted by jack c @ 09:49 AM 2 Comments

Its all on sentiment now

Guardian: S Britain on the verge of a Brexit-fuelled house price crash? Only the data will tell

"Transactions fall when sellers refuse to drop the price they will accept because they want to believe that the economic effect of Brexit has been overplayed. They also fall when first-time buyers and landlords decide to wait to see if these small falls are a sign of more to come. It is a battle of collective wills: a standoff." One thing i would add is the current uncertainty in the workplace. Employers certainly havent missed the opportunity to beat their staff with the Brexit stick!

Posted by tom101 @ 03:35 PM 4 Comments

Unavoidable

Telegraph: Companies must sort their pension black holes before paying out senseless dividends

The suggestion is that as (company) pension funds are underfunded, then instead of paying dividends the money should go to make up any shortfall in the fund. Ignoring any other side effects from stopping dividends, you would have to ask yourself how many independent pension funds are based on receiving dividends... This is not directly connected to housing but considering the whole point of BoE policy since 2008 has been to ward off deflation through any means possible, money is disappearing anyway like whack-a-mole. Which makes me wonder if even nirp and the other extreme measures are doing no more than -delaying- deflation because in the end these missing pension funds are -not- going to be spent.

Posted by stillthinking @ 12:26 AM 0 Comments

How low can they go?

Daily Fail: RBS becomes the first bank to set negative interest rates: It's charging large firms to hold cash - so could families be next?

Will homeowners be paid to take out mortgages? It could be profitable for banks to lend out at, say, -0.01 if money they do not lend out that they have to park in the central bank is charged -0.4% interest rates. Remember, 0% is an arbitrary number because banking profit is about arbitration and opportunity cost. They receive cash at whatever cost the market delivers and add a mark-up, pocketing the difference.

Posted by libertas @ 04:29 PM 13 Comments

Equivalent to Hinkley Point C every two years

BBC News: Private landlords double housing benefit haul to £9.3bn

Private landlords in the UK received twice as much in housing benefit last year - £9.3bn - as they did a decade ago, a report says. The National Housing Federation (NHF) study said the increase was due to a big rise in the number of private tenants claiming housing benefit. The NHF said this particular group of people had grown by 42% since 2008. In 2006, some £4.6bn in housing benefit was paid to private landlords, a figure which had more than doubled by 2015. NHF chief executive David Orr said: "It is madness to spend £9bn of taxpayers' money lining the pockets of private landlords rather than investing in affordable homes."

Posted by quiet guy @ 08:42 AM 3 Comments

Unhealthy debt-to-property ratio for UK plc.

Guardian: ONS data shows UK wealth wedded to property

Data reveals UK net worth of £8.8tn is four times that of 1995 after massive rise in property wealth, but stellar rise masks public deficit and decline in savings

Posted by dohousescrashinthewoods @ 09:39 AM 4 Comments

House Price Crash Cancelled

BBC News: House price inflation accelerates to 8.7% in June

The annual rate of UK house price inflation accelerated to 8.7pct to June, according to official figures. According to the new House Price Index, the rise brought the cost of an average home to £213,927. The new "experimental" index comprises figures collated by the Office for National Statistics from data supplied by Land Registry, Registers of Scotland, Land and Property Services, Northern Ireland and the Valuation Office Agency. The figures do not fully reflect any impact of the result of the vote to leave the EU, which was declared on 24 June.

Posted by little professor @ 10:43 AM 13 Comments

Tax land not labour

Guardian: How to make the Queen and our dukes pay their way: tax their land

Making the case for land value tax

Posted by frizzers @ 08:08 AM 4 Comments

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House Price Statistics - UK National

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly change
(%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Jan 16 £292,000 N/A 7.90 TickThis monthN/A22/03/2016
LSL Property Services/Acadametrics Feb 16 £289,229 0.80 6.20 Cross£292,077
(Dec 15)
0.9810/03/2016 (PDF)
Halifax House Price Index Feb 16 £209,495 1.40 9.70 TickThis monthN/A03/03/2016 (PDF)
Home.co.uk (England and Wales) Mar 16 N/A 0.90 7.90 Cross N/A N/A 11/03/2016 (PDF)
Hometrack - Monthly National Survey Jan 16 N/A 0.50 7.80 Cross N/A N/A 26/02/2016
Land Registry Monthly Report Feb 16 £190,275 0.20 6.10 Tick£191,812
(Jan 16)
0.8030/03/2016 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Apr 16 £202,436 0.20 4.90 TickThis monthN/A02/05/2016 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Mar 16 £303,190 1.30 7.60 TickThis monthN/A21/03/2016 (PDF)

House Price Statistics - Greater London

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly
change (%)
Quarterly
change (%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Jan 16 £551,000 N/A N/A 10.80 TickThis monthN/A22/03/2016
Halifax House Price Index Q4 15 £416,163 N/A N/A 16.40 CrossThis quarterN/A01/01/2016 (PDF)
Land Registry Monthly Report Feb 16 £530,368 0.60 N/A 13.50 Tick£530,409
(Jan 16)
0.0130/03/2016 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Q1 16 £455,984 N/A 1.20 11.50 Cross£456,229
(Q4 15)
0.0504/04/2016 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Mar 16 £644,045 0.00 N/A 11.00 TickThis monthN/A21/03/2016 (PDF)

Archive of old house price surveys

House Price Predictions

If you have discovered other or revised predictions that you'd like added to this list then send an email to us with all the information for each column and also a link to a website that contains the information so that we can verify the data.

This table is now sorted by the date that the prediction was made.

Source website Analyst Photo Date prediction made Amount predicted Region Time Period Evidence Notes
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrDec 2013 35%UK2013-2020Tick
House prices will increase by another 35% by 2020, leaving a huge swathe of the population locked out of home ownership for life.

Predictions archive