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Latest: House Price Crash News

Tuesday, Feb 9 2010 Add a News Blog Article

Some worried surveyors out there!

Times Online: Threat to valuers as lenders blame them for losses

Article a few days old I know. Precisely the same thing happened in the last property downturn, and I predicted on this site a few years ago that this would occur this time too.

Posted by p. doff @ 12:42 PM 0 Comments

We must be heading for another financial crisis

BBC: Hector Sants to step down from top FSA post

Hector Sants, the chief executive of the Financial Services Authority (FSA), has announced he is to step down as head of the City regulator. Media reports suggested he resigned unexpectedly last night.

Posted by jack c @ 11:40 AM 2 Comments

Get Ready! Been waiting for two years now!

MoneyWeek: Get ready for the next phase of the house price crash

This could be it....Stepek is right, Goverments cannot keep propping up the market with gurantees that investors in gilts see no austere plans ahead!

Posted by magnaman @ 10:58 AM 13 Comments

Chinese inflation will destroy the USD

The FT: Call for Beijing to tolerate some inflation

The big risk in China today is inflation – not just because of the 2009 money blowout, but also thanks to secular demographic trends that are generating wage pressure.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 10:34 AM 4 Comments

January 2010

RICS: Housing Market Survey

The January 2010 RICS Housing Market Survey showed an increasing number of surveyors seeing price rises rather than falls. The seasonally adjusted net balance of surveyors reporting rising rather than falling prices rose to 32% in January from 30% and is now only slightly below November's recent high of 35%. However, buying and selling fell during the month; respondents to the survey attributed this to the extreme weather conditions experienced in the early January. The new buyer enquiries net balance fell to -20% (from +18%), the agreed sales net balance fell to -15% (from +19%) and the new instruction net balance fell to -5% (from +15%).

Posted by dill @ 10:17 AM 2 Comments

Tick tick tick

Money week: Forget Greece - the real debt crisis is still to come

In short, it'll be very nasty. But this is small beer compared to some of the debt time bombs that are ready to go off around the rest of the world.

Posted by happy mondays @ 06:32 AM 0 Comments

Keynesian solution or the creation of more debt?

Independent: Forget cuts and keep spending, Brown told

''One of the world's leading economists has urged Gordon Brown to reject "fiscal fetishism", defy the markets and maintain, or even extend, the fiscal stimulus of the British economy. Joseph Stiglitz, who won the Nobel Prize for Economics in 2001 and has served as chief economic adviser to President Clinton and chief economist at the World Bank, warned that the financial markets were like a "crazy man" that could not be appeased with cuts to public spending.''

Posted by hpwatcher @ 06:27 AM 5 Comments

Rightmove: +32% of surveyors reporting price rises

Bloomberg: U.K. Retail Sales, Homebuyer Enquiries Suffer in Winter Freeze

Rightmove's latest index shows that 32% more surveyors reported price rises than falls - up from +30% in December, and better than the predicted +27%. However new enquiries from potential buyers fell for the first time in 14 months, while the number of new sellers entering the market fell for the first time in seven months. “House prices are likely to rise in the short term, but if more supply continues to come onto the market, it is possible that the market will run out of steam” said Rightmove.

Posted by little professor @ 04:26 AM 11 Comments

Overvalued stock markets

Telegraph: A yield that points to fully valued markets

Wait for the pop!

Posted by fallingbuzzard @ 11:58 PM 2 Comments

Follow the trend

Market Oracle: Stock Market Massive Head and Shoulders Bearish Price Pattern

This analysis suggests that the entire stock bubble since 1980 was just that, a bubble, and it is all about to pop. 1,000 on the DOW anybody? Really, the whole thing has been a bubble since 1971 when the US dollar dumped the gold standard. This didn't only affect the US, because most countries have the majority of their reserves in the dollar, so, it wasn't the US that came of the gold standard, it was the entire world. They have a choice now, deflationary depression or hyperinflation to bide time. I think they want a war to distract, history has that every time, but can they get away with it now that we have the internet to expose the necessary false flag event?

Posted by freemanphil @ 11:20 PM 2 Comments

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House Price Statistics - UK National

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly change
(%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Nov 09 £200,454 N/A 0.60 Tick£221,758
(Jan 08)
9.6112/01/2010
FT House Price Index (Acadametrics) Dec 09 £214,283 0.80 4.20 Cross£231,595
(Feb 08)
7.4808/01/2010 (PDF)
Halifax House Price Index 04/02/10 Jan 10 £169,777 0.60 3.60 Tick£199,770
(Aug 07)
15.0104/02/2010 (PDF)
Home.co.uk (England and Wales) Jan 10 N/A 0.10 1.70 Cross N/A N/A 12/01/2010 (PDF)
Hometrack - Monthly National Survey Jan 10 N/A 0.10 1.00 Cross N/A N/A 01/02/2010
Land Registry Monthly Report Dec 09 £161,783 0.10 2.50 Tick£186,045
(Jan 08)
13.0429/01/2010 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Jan 10 £163,481 1.20 8.60 Tick£186,044
(Oct 07)
12.1329/01/2010 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Jan 10 £222,261 0.40 4.10 Tick£242,500
(May 08)
8.3518/01/2010 (PDF)

House Price Statistics - Greater London

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly
change (%)
Quarterly
change (%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Nov 09 £314,875 N/A N/A 1.10 Tick£351,096
(Jan 08)
10.3212/01/2010
Halifax House Price Index Q4 09 £255,473 N/A N/A 1.50 Cross£320,847
(Q3 07)
20.3829/01/2010 (PDF)
Land Registry Monthly Report Dec 09 £324,352 1.50 N/A 6.10 Tick£357,976
(Jan 08)
9.3929/01/2010 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Q4 09 £276,088 N/A 3.40 7.00 Cross£303,739
(Q4 07)
9.1008/01/2010 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Jan 10 £407,731 2.30 N/A 5.50 Tick£416,157
(Oct 09)
2.0218/01/2010 (PDF)

Archive of old house price surveys

House Price Predictions

If you have discovered other or revised predictions that you'd like added to this list then send an email to us with all the information for each column and also a link to a website that contains the information so that we can verify the data.

This table is now sorted by the date that the prediction was made.

Source website Analyst Photo Date prediction made Amount predicted Region Time Period Evidence Notes
Knight Frank 01/01/1970Liam BaileyN/ADec 2009 3%UK2010Tick
Knight Frank predicts that a continuing growth in unemployment, allied to wage freezes and tax rises, and a rise in average mortgage rates will force a number of sales which, in the absence of greater depth of demand, will see prices slipping back.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasSep 2009 7%UK2010Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle's latest UK Residential Market Forecast predicts this market revival is likely to be unsustainable and a fall in prices of -7% on average is likely during 2010.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 9%UK2009Tick
Cluttons predict that house prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1.5%UK2010Tick
House prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 11%London2009Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1%London2010Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
Market OracleAndrew ButterN/AJan 2009 33%UK2007-2012Tick
For Nationwide Index; updates forecast of 35% to 40% drop (peak to trough) done in Sept 07, reason now low long term interest rates will hold prices up until bottom in 2012.
Market OracleNadeem WalayatN/AJan 2009 36%UK2007-2011Tick
For Halifax Index updates; forecast of 15% drop for 08 done in August 07, bottom 2011.
Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherOct 2008 15%UK2009Tick
Global insight have further revised down their house price forecasts to show a fall of 15% in 2009.
NationwideGraham BealePhoto of Graham BealeSep 2008 25%UK2008-2010Tick
Nationwide CEO Graham Beale expects a 25% decline between 2008-2010 in UK housing market before any signs of a recovery.
Housepricecrash.co.ukJonathan DavisPhoto of Jonathan DavisSep 2008 40-50 % UK2007-2011Tick
New forecast set at Sep 08. Given historical reference, global bank failures,credit restrictions and economic recession.
brightsale.co.ukJeremy HowardN/AAug 2008 0%UK2008-2009Tick
New research from BrightSale suggests that prices do not have much further to fall to bring them back to long-term equilibrium
Lloyds TSBEric DanielsPhoto of Eric DanielsJul 2008 5%UK2009Tick
Lloyds predict a further 5% fall for 2009 on top of their 10-15% fall prediction for 2008.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrJul 2008 25%UK2008-2013Tick
National Housing Federation predicts that the average house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach 274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash.
DeloitteRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJul 2008 33%UK2008-2010Tick
Deloitte now expect UK house prices to fall by about a third by the end of 2010 with severe adverse effects on household spending and investment.
SavillsJeremy HelsbyN/AJul 2008 25%London2008-2009Tick
The chief executive of Savills forecast house prices in London to fall 25 per cent by the end of next year.
GMOJeremy GranthamN/AJul 2008 50%UKNot statedTick
Jeremy Grantham of GMO, the $126-bn US investment fund, notes that UK house prices "could easily decline 50% from the peak, and at that lower level they would still be higher than they were in 1997 as a multiple of income!"
Capital EconomicsRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJun 2008 35%UK2008-2010Tick
Revised forecast: House prices may fall up to 35pc over the next three years, Capital Economics has warned, in one of the bleakest forecasts yet for the UK's property market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 1-3 % UK2009Tick
Minor falls predicted for 2009.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 7-9 % UK2010-2013Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle expect slow growth from 2010-2013.
Morgan StanleyDavid MilesPhoto of David MilesMar 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
David Miles, chief UK economist at Morgan Stanley predicts that house prices will fall by up to 20% over the next two years.
Numis SecuritiesJames HamiltonN/AMar 2008 30%UKNot statedTick
James states that "UK property prices remain 44% over valued we expect them to go to a discount to fair value." (44% over-valuation would result in a 30.55% price drop)
Boom Bust Fred HarrisonPhoto of Fred HarrisonJan 2008 30%UK2008-2012Tick
Fred Harrison predicted a drop of 20% in his book Boom Bust (2005) but he now believes the drop will be around 30%.
London School of EconomicsJohn Van ReenenPhoto of John Van ReenenJan 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
John Van Reenen, expected prices to fall 20% before bouncing back but he doesn't state a time period for this prediction.
London School of EconomicsWillem BuiterN/AJan 2008 30%UK2008-2009Tick
Mr Buiter says that on average, lower house prices don't make UK consumers worse off. They lose as owners but gain as renters.
Gordon is a MoronDr Vernon ColemanPhoto of Dr Vernon ColemanAug 2007 50%UKNot statedTick
Dr Vernon Coleman Predicts a 50% House Price Crash in his book "Gordon is a moron".

Predictions archive