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House Price Crash Forum

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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.
Flexit = Brexit for Adults....

Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.
My view for some time been that we will not be leaving the EU on 29th March 201...

Youll like this one
They are taking the biscuit......

Youll like this one
For the founders it's probably more straightforward than what they were doing a ...

Youll like this one
Double bubble - property and blockchain. Worlds gone mad. https://kexcoin....

Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.
It was an attempt to explain the reasoning behind it......

Lower tolerance for a-holes as I get older
You buy six individual pints of Waitrose Milk? Sounds like the dearest free cup ...

Finding the 95%LTV sweet spot
So lets say that your 5% is 25k on a nice 500k 3 bed semi. In ten years you...

Finding the 95%LTV sweet spot
Because they want to attract those buyers with fat equity chunks. And of course ...

Deflationary collapse and the Reflation Cycle to Come.
Can I toss a stock idea in the mixer on here? Long Begbies Traynor. It's i...

Kaboom - $14Trn of Hidden Offshore Debt Uncovered
Interesting thanks. Short answer is I dont know. I only ever dealt with the...

Deflationary collapse and the Reflation Cycle to Come.
It can be done alright - Bloke ahead of me at Tesco last evening bought about 20...

Deflationary collapse and the Reflation Cycle to Come.
I think now is the time to be learning Chinese....

Another Reason To Use Cash
Its a two way street between banks and companies like Experian. Not til i'd work...

Finding the 95%LTV sweet spot
...but I'll only buy a house which has clearly dropped 25% from peak, and I'll n...

Finding the 95%LTV sweet spot
5% desposit in a massive housing bubble is reckless sucide. It's a recipe for i...

Yet another raffle....

the acronym is mugs...

University Bubble Making Hissing Sounds
This guy's good at maths 'It is said to have been Albert Einstein who...

Deflationary collapse and the Reflation Cycle to Come.
Do people still think the BoE and other western banks won't follow? ...

Deflationary collapse and the Reflation Cycle to Come.
' Italy and Japan have seemingly unsustainable debt burdens and are likely vulne...

Deflationary collapse and the Reflation Cycle to Come.
There were supposed to be four rate increases this year!...

Young spend three times more on housing than grandparents
Yes but ipods...

Electric car boom will fuel demand for power, says National Grid
Good discussion on the numbers, tech, red herrings and strawman arguments here. ...

Aberdeen, Aspc Stats
Yes indeed. Especially with headlines like '10-ish years left' in the local oily...

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Latest: House Price Crash News

Thursday, Sep 21 2017 Add a News Blog Article

Clueless Carney

Torygraph: Mark Carney doubles down on likely interest rate rise in face of 'inflationary' Brexit

As pointed out in the comments, the inflationary overshoot Carney so eagerly ascribes to Brexit might just be because the BoE dropped interest rates on the news and applied additional monetary stimulus.

Posted by stillthinking @ 01:45 AM 1 Comments

What nonsense | HPC saw it coming

BBC News: The collapse of Northern Rock: Ten years on

The "experts" want to ABDI-cate all responsibility for being clueless. This very forum provided sound insight into the CDO crsisi over 10 years ago.

Posted by lvmreader @ 06:52 PM 0 Comments

Its not Carney you should consider..

Torygraph: Is the Bank of England running out of rhetorical firepower on interest rates?

Carney has bluffed to get the market to anticipate rate hikes thereby tightening for him, and has done so many times successfully as the article explains. As the BoE are truthfully in charge of setting the rate then if the market doesn't tighten on his behalf and he is forced to raise, they are wrong-footed, and if they do tighten in anticipation then the BoE does nothing. Its like being a successful blackmailer. Where this cunning plan breaks down though is if inflation starts breaking out outside of the financial markets i.e. wage inflation. I have often wondered for all the CPI, RPI talk, the only thing they ever consider is wage inflation, because all of the data on wage inflation is to hand direct from inland revenue, and if wages aren't going up then neither are prices.

Posted by stillthinking @ 12:07 PM 0 Comments

Foxtons bashing

Moneyweek: What Britain’s best-loved estate agent can tell us about UK house prices

Estate agents’ fortunes can tell us a great deal about which way the housing market is going. Foxtons’ share price is in freefall.

Posted by frizzers @ 10:18 AM 0 Comments

Halifax trumpets below inflation price increase

Halifax: Annual house price growth pulls up to 2.6%

... on the back of tiny volumes (see the time chart of homes for sale) as signs of "buoyancy". The 0.1% Quarterly increase equates to an average £200 increase over 3 months. Do they really have such a precise survey or is this just noise? Not sure how this, especially the +1.1% MOM figure, squares with the current reports of widespread reductions in asking prices. Is it a case of high variance in survey data because of low transactions volume? Or are asking prices so loony that a reduction in them is consistent with an increase in sale prices?

Posted by nickb @ 10:50 AM 3 Comments

Is buy-to-let lending about to get tougher?

Every Investor: Is buy-to-let lending about to get tougher?

Andrew Turner, chief executive of Commercial Trust, reveals what is happening behind the scenes which could have an impact on buy-to-let. The future for buy-to-let mortgage landlord applicants could get a lot tougher in the coming weeks, as new Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) rules around lending money come into effect.

Posted by andrew pelis @ 04:39 PM 1 Comments

We can afford banks bailouts, HS2, F-35 and Restoring the Houses of Parliment but not social housing

Independent: Rogue private landlords given £2.5bn a year of public money, new analysis reveals

Billions of pounds of taxpayers' money is being given to rogue landlords who are renting out homes that don't meet basic health and safety standards, new analysis of Government data has revealed. Over the next five years, they will receive more than £12bn in housing benefits – enough money to have helped build more than half a million new homes.

Posted by quiet guy @ 10:37 AM 16 Comments

People questioning monetary policy

Torygraph: Be careful what you wish for in cheering on sterling's slump

An article that questions the benefits of devaluation, and by implication ECB policy.

Posted by stillthinking @ 01:54 AM 3 Comments

Net migration is falling, soon negative?

Grauniad: Net migration to UK drops to lowest level for three years

Title says it all. It seems hard for our media commentators to spot developments for which the appropriate response is not "build more houses". I wonder how they will get there with this one?

Posted by nickb @ 10:25 AM 2 Comments

A sustainable trend?

Notayesmaneconomics Blog: Is housing a better investment than equities?

"Moving onto the conclusion that housing is a better investment than equities then there are plenty of caveats around the data and the assumptions used. What may surprise some is the fact that equities did not win clearly as after all we are told this so often. If your grandmother told you to buy property then it seems she was onto something! As to my home country the UK it seems that the Chinese think the prospects for property are bright." As noted in the comments, regional variations, taxation, liquidity and the bailout of exposed banks in 2007 are factors in this complicated discussion.

Posted by quiet guy @ 01:07 PM 5 Comments

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House Price Statistics - UK National

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly change
Annual change
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Jan 16 £292,000 N/A 7.90 TickThis monthN/A22/03/2016
LSL Property Services/Acadametrics Feb 16 £289,229 0.80 6.20 Cross£292,077
(Dec 15)
0.9810/03/2016 (PDF)
Halifax House Price Index Feb 16 £209,495 1.40 9.70 TickThis monthN/A03/03/2016 (PDF) (England and Wales) Mar 16 N/A 0.90 7.90 Cross N/A N/A 11/03/2016 (PDF)
Hometrack - Monthly National Survey Jan 16 N/A 0.50 7.80 Cross N/A N/A 26/02/2016
Land Registry Monthly Report Feb 16 £190,275 0.20 6.10 Tick£191,812
(Jan 16)
0.8030/03/2016 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Apr 16 £202,436 0.20 4.90 TickThis monthN/A02/05/2016 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Mar 16 £303,190 1.30 7.60 TickThis monthN/A21/03/2016 (PDF)

House Price Statistics - Greater London

Source website Period covered Average
house price
change (%)
change (%)
Annual change
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Jan 16 £551,000 N/A N/A 10.80 TickThis monthN/A22/03/2016
Halifax House Price Index Q4 15 £416,163 N/A N/A 16.40 CrossThis quarterN/A01/01/2016 (PDF)
Land Registry Monthly Report Feb 16 £530,368 0.60 N/A 13.50 Tick£530,409
(Jan 16)
0.0130/03/2016 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Q1 16 £455,984 N/A 1.20 11.50 Cross£456,229
(Q4 15)
0.0504/04/2016 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Mar 16 £644,045 0.00 N/A 11.00 TickThis monthN/A21/03/2016 (PDF)

Archive of old house price surveys

House Price Predictions

If you have discovered other or revised predictions that you'd like added to this list then send an email to us with all the information for each column and also a link to a website that contains the information so that we can verify the data.

This table is now sorted by the date that the prediction was made.

Source website Analyst Photo Date prediction made Amount predicted Region Time Period Evidence Notes
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrDec 2013 35%UK2013-2020Tick
House prices will increase by another 35% by 2020, leaving a huge swathe of the population locked out of home ownership for life.

Predictions archive