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Will George Osborne Soften The Tax Credit Cuts For Low-Earners?
"Labour MP Frank Field offers the Chancellor a partial escape route." ...

Smoke Detector Fines
I know of one HMO that where the wired smoke detectors appear to be missing from...

South Park Ep 1903 *the City Side Of Town"
Hi   heads-up as its on Comedy Central tonight @ 10:00 or so. Or download f...

London Renters Forced To Pay Much More Than They Can Afford
The average renter in London is paying £100 more than they can afford ...

Why Is The Government Giving £45M To Roman Abramovich While Letting A British Steelworks Go To The Wall?
AAlthough regulations around steel make it hard to intervene, a way could be fou...

Changes To S.21 Possession Notices - Bad News For Btl
  'Revenge' evictions (i.e. avoiding basic maintenance by evicting the com...

'why I'm Giving Up On Buy To Let'
The whole front page of the property section has a photo of the LL (female, sorr...

Itv Saying Minimum Wage Rises Coming
presenter could hardly keep a straight face when she announced a 20p rise, IMHO....

New Buy-To-Let Deal Escapes George Osborne's Landlord Tax

Someone On Mse Has Apparently Outed Me...except They Haven't.
Someone's brought to my attention that on this thread on MSE   Someone has...

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Latest: House Price Crash News

Sunday, Oct 4 2015 Add a News Blog Article

US 1 & 3 month bonds go negative

UK.Investing: U.S. 1-Month Bond Yield Overview

With 1 month US bonds confidently negative, 3 month bonds a yo-yo ing from negative to positive, pivoting around zero and the yield on 6-month treasuries actually declined 19 basis point in past month. "None of this "should be happening" in a rising rate environment with an allegedly strengthening economy" with this indicative of coming recessionary conditions states Mike Shedlock: : Though Mike ignores that there is a global economy at stake, and this represents capital flowing into the US market, possibly from China and Europe, but also places like Brazil, combined with the US experiencing a global deflationary shock on commodities from the Chinese collapse that outweighs strong economic growth on the FOREX market right now.

Posted by libertas @ 10:33 AM 8 Comments

Double top for US house prices or new boom?

Huffington Post: US Home Prices Reaching Near Peak - So What's the Problem?

The new FHFA, Federal Housing Finance Agency, House Price Index has been published with data through the end of July, 2015. Here's a chart to get the discussion going:

Posted by libertas @ 10:21 AM 0 Comments

One for the bears

Armstrong Economics: Real Estate and the Economic Confidence Model

The peak in real estate may have arrived. At the same time, this reflects the shift away from government bonds. Blackstone Group LP, the largest real estate fund to assemble, has come right on point. Blackstone raised $15.8 billion, creating the largest real estate fund in history. As we have warned, this reflects investment capital shifting into real estate. We may see a major high in real estate in many areas due to taxes and regulations. They are even looking at introducing property taxes in places within Europe where they did not exist before.

Posted by libertas @ 12:34 AM 9 Comments

A trend continues

This Is Money: One in five 20 to 34-year-olds has moved back in with their parents in the last year because they cannot afford to rent Read more:

There are many family homes with spare rooms. One factor of the housing "crisis" is that we will revert closer to third world countries where three or more generations live in the same house, plus folk renting out spare rooms, spare lofts, spare spaces under stairs, spare garages, sheds, green houses, tree houses, land for tents, and on, and on. This is how London will hit 12 million residents by 2030. Welcome to the new normal.

Posted by libertas @ 10:19 PM 3 Comments

When enough is far too much..

Telegraph: Property tycoon takes his own life after amassing debts of £5 million

He bought his first investment property in Yorkshire in 2000 and by 2003 had a portfolio of 84 buy-to-let properties across the county, generating £250,000 a year.....a doomed attempt to join a Romanian property scheme in 2007 left the family "virtually penniless".

Posted by hpwatcher @ 04:01 PM 3 Comments

London rent a bed scheme

Sky News: Anger At 'Bed Under Stairs' To Rent In London

A young graduate with hopes of moving to London has expressed her disgust after a single room costing £500 a month turned out to be a cupboard "under the stairs". Alex Lomax visited the flat share in Clapham after seeing an advert online – but was left shocked after its description of a "furnished room" seemed a little too generous. Her pictures show a single mattress wedged in between the walls, with a little bit of room left for a couple of boxes at the back.

Posted by jack c @ 08:46 PM 7 Comments

Some small relief for tenants?

Moneyweek: Rent arrears: one more thing for buy-to-let investors to worry about

The minimum debt required for Bankruptcy proceedings is going up from £750 to £5000 - "a good six months’ rent for many of the UK’s landlords" Below this and they have to use County Court proceedings instead, which is much more expensive and takes longer. I wonder how many rogue landlords would pursue arrears if it would mean an opportunity for the tenant to point out some breach of contracts to a judge? I certainly wish that I'd stiffed our landlord when we moved - we ended up getting £75 from the Ombudsman but I reckon they would have probably written off a month's rent rather than have to explain themselves to a proper court...

Posted by mombers @ 01:54 PM 1 Comments

Nordic experimentation with sub-zero interest rates has changed the way central bankers think about

Telegraph: How Sweden's negative interest rates experiment has turned economics on its head

It has long been believed that when it comes to interest rates, zero is as low as you can go. Who would choose to keep their money in the bank if they had to pay for the privilege? But for the people who control the world’s money, this idea has recently been thrown out of the window. Many central banks have pushed their rates into negative territory and yet the financial system HAS YET TO COME TO AN ABRUPT END.

Posted by libertas @ 12:00 AM 10 Comments

Equivalent to margin in stocks

Dailymail: BTL could spark property crash

It's the elephant in the room...BTL at these levels is a pure play on rising prices..leveraged loans speculating on Rising prices.Problem is it goes pear shaped if prices fall...1929 stock crash was fuelled by margin trading As was 2007 crash and recent Chinese stock crash...trouble is you can't short physical property!BTL makes no Sense at these levels unless prices rise

Posted by taffee @ 06:56 AM 18 Comments

Can the new left tackle the Housing Crisis with a Land Value Tax

Gruaniad: Why Labour must become the party of home ownership

This young chap is making waves in left wing politics and by saying New New Labour should build a lot more Houses and Introduce a Land Value Tax. Interesting I shared a platform with him last year and mentioned it to him.... Did not seam that interested at the time but he has obviously been looking into it. I am sure having the new Shadow Chancellor and a few other corbynites who are up for a Land Value Tax does not hurt either. Interesting times if they ever get a majority.

Posted by pete green @ 05:45 PM 9 Comments

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House Price Statistics - UK National

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly change
Annual change
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Feb 15 £268,000 N/A 7.20 Tick£274,000
(Aug 14)
LSL Property Services/Acadametrics Mar 15 £275,123 0.20 5.60 Cross£280,733
(Nov 14)
2.0017/04/2015 (PDF)
Halifax House Price Index Mar 15 £192,970 0.40 8.10 Tick£199,770
(Aug 07)
3.4009/04/2015 (PDF) (England and Wales) Apr 15 N/A 0.90 6.50 Cross N/A N/A 14/04/2015 (PDF)
Hometrack - Monthly National Survey Sep 14 N/A 0.00 0.00 Cross N/A N/A 26/09/2014
Land Registry Monthly Report Feb 15 £180,252 0.50 6.50 Tick£186,045
(Jan 08)
3.1127/03/2015 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Mar 15 £189,454 0.10 5.10 TickThis monthN/A02/04/2015 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Mar 15 £281,752 1.00 5.40 TickThis monthN/A16/03/2015 (PDF)

House Price Statistics - Greater London

Source website Period covered Average
house price
change (%)
change (%)
Annual change
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Feb 15 £490,000 N/A N/A 9.40 Tick£514,000
(Jul 14)
Halifax House Price Index Q4 14 £356,054 N/A N/A 14.50 CrossThis quarterN/A08/01/2015 (PDF)
Land Registry Monthly Report Feb 15 £463,872 0.60 N/A 13.10 TickThis monthN/A27/03/2015 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Q1 15 £408,780 N/A 1.00 12.70 CrossThis quarterN/A02/04/2015 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Mar 15 £580,308 0.40 N/A 5.50 Tick£601,180
(Nov 14)
3.4716/03/2015 (PDF)

Archive of old house price surveys

House Price Predictions

If you have discovered other or revised predictions that you'd like added to this list then send an email to us with all the information for each column and also a link to a website that contains the information so that we can verify the data.

This table is now sorted by the date that the prediction was made.

Source website Analyst Photo Date prediction made Amount predicted Region Time Period Evidence Notes
RICSN/AN/ADec 2013 8%UK2014Tick
This growth is being driven by the acute imbalance between burgeoning buyer demand and sluggish supply with new instructions to estate agents close to stagnating.
RICSN/AN/ADec 2013 11%London2014Tick
It remains to be seen what impact the recently announced increase in capital gains tax for overseas vendors will have on the prime central London market.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrDec 2013 35%UK2013-2020Tick
House prices will increase by another 35% by 2020, leaving a huge swathe of the population locked out of home ownership for life.
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2012Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2011Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 8.8%UK2013Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 5.8%UK2014Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 4.9%UK2015Tick
Jonathan DavisN/AOct 2010 40-50 % UK2007-2013Tick
New forecast set at Oct 10. Given historical reference, bank failures, credit restrictions and global economic recession.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherSep 2010 10%UK2010-2011Tick
We suspect that house prices could fall by around 10% between now and the end of 2011. Much will obviously depend on how well the economy holds up as the fiscal squeeze increasingly kicks in, mortgage availability and the amount of houses coming on to the market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasAug 2010 3.9%UK2010Tick
"During the remainder of 2010, JLL expects a decline of 3.9 per cent on current price levels, reducing the value of the average UK property by £6,500."
CEBRN/AN/AAug 2010 4%UK2010Tick
"The Centre For Economics And Business Research (CEBR) said prices will increase 4 per cent this year and continue rising until 2014, mainly due to a shortage of homes in the UK and low interest rates."
NIESRN/AN/AJul 2010 8%UK2010-2015Tick
"The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) claims that prices will fall, in real terms, by about eight per cent."
Capital Economics Ltd.N/AN/AJul 2010 23%UK2010-2012Tick
"UK house prices will fall through 2012 as the deepest public-spending cuts since World War II and tighter credit conditions deter potential buyers."
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/ADec 2009 3%UK2010Tick
Knight Frank predicts that a continuing growth in unemployment, allied to wage freezes and tax rises, and a rise in average mortgage rates will force a number of sales which, in the absence of greater depth of demand, will see prices slipping back.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasSep 2009 7%UK2010Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle's latest UK Residential Market Forecast predicts this market revival is likely to be unsustainable and a fall in prices of -7% on average is likely during 2010.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 9%UK2009Tick
Cluttons predict that house prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1.5%UK2010Tick
House prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 11%London2009Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1%London2010Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
Market OracleAndrew ButterN/AJan 2009 33%UK2007-2012Tick
For Nationwide Index; updates forecast of 35% to 40% drop (peak to trough) done in Sept 07, reason now low long term interest rates will hold prices up until bottom in 2012.
Market OracleNadeem WalayatN/AJan 2009 36%UK2007-2011Tick
For Halifax Index updates; forecast of 15% drop for 08 done in August 07, bottom 2011.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherOct 2008 15%UK2009Tick
Global insight have further revised down their house price forecasts to show a fall of 15% in 2009.
NationwideGraham BealePhoto of Graham BealeSep 2008 25%UK2008-2010Tick
Nationwide CEO Graham Beale expects a 25% decline between 2008-2010 in UK housing market before any signs of a recovery.
Jonathan DavisN/ASep 2008 40-50 % UK2007-2011Tick
New forecast set at Sep 08. Given historical reference, global bank failures,credit restrictions and economic recession. HowardN/AAug 2008 0%UK2008-2009Tick
New research from BrightSale suggests that prices do not have much further to fall to bring them back to long-term equilibrium
Lloyds TSBEric DanielsPhoto of Eric DanielsJul 2008 5%UK2009Tick
Lloyds predict a further 5% fall for 2009 on top of their 10-15% fall prediction for 2008.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrJul 2008 25%UK2008-2013Tick
National Housing Federation predicts that the average house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach £274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash.
DeloitteRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJul 2008 33%UK2008-2010Tick
Deloitte now expect UK house prices to fall by about a third by the end of 2010 with severe adverse effects on household spending and investment.
SavillsJeremy HelsbyN/AJul 2008 25%London2008-2009Tick
The chief executive of Savills forecast house prices in London to fall 25 per cent by the end of next year.
GMOJeremy GranthamN/AJul 2008 50%UKNot statedTick
Jeremy Grantham of GMO, the $126-bn US investment fund, notes that UK house prices "could easily decline 50% from the peak, and at that lower level they would still be higher than they were in 1997 as a multiple of income!"
Capital EconomicsRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJun 2008 35%UK2008-2010Tick
Revised forecast: House prices may fall up to 35pc over the next three years, Capital Economics has warned, in one of the bleakest forecasts yet for the UK's property market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 1-3 % UK2009Tick
Minor falls predicted for 2009.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 7-9 % UK2010-2013Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle expect slow growth from 2010-2013.
Morgan StanleyDavid MilesPhoto of David MilesMar 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
David Miles, chief UK economist at Morgan Stanley predicts that house prices will fall by up to 20% over the next two years.
Numis SecuritiesJames HamiltonN/AMar 2008 30%UKNot statedTick
James states that "UK property prices remain 44% over valued we expect them to go to a discount to fair value." (44% over-valuation would result in a 30.55% price drop)
Boom Bust Fred HarrisonPhoto of Fred HarrisonJan 2008 30%UK2008-2012Tick
Fred Harrison predicted a drop of 20% in his book Boom Bust (2005) but he now believes the drop will be around 30%.
London School of EconomicsJohn Van ReenenPhoto of John Van ReenenJan 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
John Van Reenen, expected prices to fall 20% before bouncing back but he doesn't state a time period for this prediction.
London School of EconomicsWillem BuiterN/AJan 2008 30%UK2008-2009Tick
Mr Buiter says that on average, lower house prices don't make UK consumers worse off. They lose as owners but gain as renters.
Gordon is a MoronDr Vernon ColemanPhoto of Dr Vernon ColemanAug 2007 50%UKNot statedTick
Dr Vernon Coleman Predicts a 50% House Price Crash in his book "Gordon is a moron".

Predictions archive