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Latest: House Price Crash News

Wednesday, Mar 10 2010 Add a News Blog Article

Larry Elliot

Guardian: Overvalued exchange rate is a symbol of Britain's economic malaise

"But the message from the past 40 years – which includes repeated boom-busts in the property market and three deep recessions in manufacturing that have hollowed out the country's industrial base – is that an overvalued exchange rate and an over-heated housing market are the ugly sisters of the UK economy. Only in Britain would it have been possible for a fall in output of almost 5% in 2009 to have been accompanied by a 10% jump in house prices. Only in Britain would it have been seen as a cause for celebration."

Posted by dill @ 05:29 AM 5 Comments

Home-Owner-Ism achieves important milestone

Evening Standard: Nine out of 10 young families in London cannot afford home

Ninety per cent of couples under 40 with children in London cannot afford to get on the housing ladder, it emerged today... The figure of 10 per cent in London compares with 21.4 per cent in the South-West and 23.8 per cent for the South-East. Almost of a third of young working couples without children in the capital were able to afford a home in 2008, the last year figures were available... Typical first-time buyers have seen average deposits soar from 16 per cent of annual income in 2000 to 64 per cent last year.

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 06:47 PM 17 Comments

What the king & queen of buy-to-let can tell us about UK house prices

MoneyWeek: What the king & queen of buy-to-let can tell us about UK house prices

Two maths teachers became the unlikely pin-ups of the buy-to-let business during the boom years. But the crash exposed the shaky foundations of their empire. John Stepek looks at what their story reveals about the state of today's housing market – and why another house price crash is inevitable.

Posted by damien @ 01:14 PM 19 Comments

Bankruptcy Data Since 1960

Guardian: Bankruptcies and insolvencies since 1960

The number of people entering into insolvency in England and Wales rose to a record total of 134,142 last year, official figures from the Insolvency Service showed today, and experts say the figure is likely to rise further in 2010. From the data, since about 2004, the numbers of bankruptcies have shot up.

Posted by cat and canary @ 12:50 PM 11 Comments

We all know Moody's are cr*p

Reuters: UK faces dilemma over bank support

Britain faces a difficult balancing act in deciding how and when to reduce support for the banking sector, Moody's Investors Service said on Tuesday

Posted by mr g @ 12:34 PM 2 Comments

What a waste of a weak pound...

Bloomberg: U.K. Trade Gap Swells to Widest Since August 2008

The goods-trade gap was 8 billion pounds ($12 billion), the most since August 2008, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. The median of 17 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey was for the deficit to narrow to 7 billion pounds. Imports fell 1.6 percent and exports dropped 6.9 percent.

Posted by mrflibble @ 10:00 AM 12 Comments

If it's not snow...

Daily Telegraph: Housing market on hold ahead of general election

The housing market is on hold as home buyers and sellers adopt a “wait and see” approach in the run up to the general election, estate agents have warned. Or should that be... The housing market is on hold as home buyers and sellers adopt a “wait and see” approach in the run up to the general election. Estate agents have waned.

Posted by timmy t @ 09:39 AM 14 Comments

Poxtons in negative equity

Guardian: Debt-loaded takeover plunged Foxtons owner into negative equity

Estate agent chain known for its Minis falls victim to the housing crash as profit slumps 70% and debt reaches nearly £350m

Posted by doomwatch @ 09:20 AM 5 Comments

New instructions rebound more strongly than buyer enquiries

RICS: Housing Market Survey February 2010

The first chart shows a history of lower highs and lower lows since 1997. The regional breakdown shows the price rises have mainly been in London and the South East, so it's not surprising that the 2009 bounce was so widely reported by the London-based media. In my region of Yorkshire and Humberside the balance of surveyors' reports barely went positive and is now firmly negative again.

Posted by monty032 @ 08:42 AM 2 Comments

More spin on same press release

BBC: House prices: Rises may start to slow, surveyors say

"Further rises in house prices may be held back by more properties coming onto the market, surveyors have said. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) says new instructions outpaced enquires from new buyers in February. It was the second month in a row that this had happened. The rise in house prices during the past year has been attributed by many commentators to a shortage of stock for sale."

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 07:46 AM 4 Comments

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House Price Statistics - UK National

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly change
(%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Dec 09 £200,307 N/A 2.90 Tick£221,758
(Jan 08)
9.6716/02/2010
FT House Price Index (Acadametrics) Jan 10 £215,016 0.70 5.40 Cross£231,595
(Feb 08)
7.1612/02/2010 (PDF)
Halifax House Price Index 04/03/10 Feb 10 £166,857 1.50 4.50 Tick£199,770
(Aug 07)
16.4804/03/2010 (PDF)
Home.co.uk (England and Wales) Feb 10 N/A 0.30 0.70 Cross N/A N/A 12/02/2010 (PDF)
Hometrack - Monthly National Survey Feb 10 N/A 0.30 0.40 Cross N/A N/A 01/03/2010
Land Registry Monthly Report Jan 10 £165,088 2.10 5.20 Tick£186,045
(Jan 08)
11.2626/02/2010 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Feb 10 £161,320 1.00 9.20 Tick£186,044
(Oct 07)
13.2926/02/2010 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Feb 10 £229,398 3.20 6.10 Tick£242,500
(May 08)
5.4015/02/2010 (PDF)

House Price Statistics - Greater London

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly
change (%)
Quarterly
change (%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Dec 09 £316,695 N/A N/A 4.90 Tick£351,096
(Jan 08)
9.8016/02/2010
Halifax House Price Index Q4 09 £255,473 N/A N/A 1.50 Cross£320,847
(Q3 07)
20.3829/01/2010 (PDF)
Land Registry Monthly Report Jan 10 £336,212 3.90 N/A 10.50 Tick£357,976
(Jan 08)
6.0826/02/2010 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Q4 09 £276,088 N/A 3.40 7.00 Cross£303,739
(Q4 07)
9.1008/01/2010 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Feb 10 £427,987 5.00 N/A 10.30 TickThis monthN/A15/02/2010 (PDF)

Archive of old house price surveys

House Price Predictions

If you have discovered other or revised predictions that you'd like added to this list then send an email to us with all the information for each column and also a link to a website that contains the information so that we can verify the data.

This table is now sorted by the date that the prediction was made.

Source website Analyst Photo Date prediction made Amount predicted Region Time Period Evidence Notes
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/ADec 2009 3%UK2010Tick
Knight Frank predicts that a continuing growth in unemployment, allied to wage freezes and tax rises, and a rise in average mortgage rates will force a number of sales which, in the absence of greater depth of demand, will see prices slipping back.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasSep 2009 7%UK2010Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle's latest UK Residential Market Forecast predicts this market revival is likely to be unsustainable and a fall in prices of -7% on average is likely during 2010.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 9%UK2009Tick
Cluttons predict that house prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1.5%UK2010Tick
House prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 11%London2009Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1%London2010Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
Market OracleAndrew ButterN/AJan 2009 33%UK2007-2012Tick
For Nationwide Index; updates forecast of 35% to 40% drop (peak to trough) done in Sept 07, reason now low long term interest rates will hold prices up until bottom in 2012.
Market OracleNadeem WalayatN/AJan 2009 36%UK2007-2011Tick
For Halifax Index updates; forecast of 15% drop for 08 done in August 07, bottom 2011.
Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherOct 2008 15%UK2009Tick
Global insight have further revised down their house price forecasts to show a fall of 15% in 2009.
NationwideGraham BealePhoto of Graham BealeSep 2008 25%UK2008-2010Tick
Nationwide CEO Graham Beale expects a 25% decline between 2008-2010 in UK housing market before any signs of a recovery.
Housepricecrash.co.ukJonathan DavisPhoto of Jonathan DavisSep 2008 40-50 % UK2007-2011Tick
New forecast set at Sep 08. Given historical reference, global bank failures,credit restrictions and economic recession.
brightsale.co.ukJeremy HowardN/AAug 2008 0%UK2008-2009Tick
New research from BrightSale suggests that prices do not have much further to fall to bring them back to long-term equilibrium
Lloyds TSBEric DanielsPhoto of Eric DanielsJul 2008 5%UK2009Tick
Lloyds predict a further 5% fall for 2009 on top of their 10-15% fall prediction for 2008.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrJul 2008 25%UK2008-2013Tick
National Housing Federation predicts that the average house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach 274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash.
DeloitteRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJul 2008 33%UK2008-2010Tick
Deloitte now expect UK house prices to fall by about a third by the end of 2010 with severe adverse effects on household spending and investment.
SavillsJeremy HelsbyN/AJul 2008 25%London2008-2009Tick
The chief executive of Savills forecast house prices in London to fall 25 per cent by the end of next year.
GMOJeremy GranthamN/AJul 2008 50%UKNot statedTick
Jeremy Grantham of GMO, the $126-bn US investment fund, notes that UK house prices "could easily decline 50% from the peak, and at that lower level they would still be higher than they were in 1997 as a multiple of income!"
Capital EconomicsRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJun 2008 35%UK2008-2010Tick
Revised forecast: House prices may fall up to 35pc over the next three years, Capital Economics has warned, in one of the bleakest forecasts yet for the UK's property market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 1-3 % UK2009Tick
Minor falls predicted for 2009.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 7-9 % UK2010-2013Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle expect slow growth from 2010-2013.
Morgan StanleyDavid MilesPhoto of David MilesMar 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
David Miles, chief UK economist at Morgan Stanley predicts that house prices will fall by up to 20% over the next two years.
Numis SecuritiesJames HamiltonN/AMar 2008 30%UKNot statedTick
James states that "UK property prices remain 44% over valued we expect them to go to a discount to fair value." (44% over-valuation would result in a 30.55% price drop)
Boom Bust Fred HarrisonPhoto of Fred HarrisonJan 2008 30%UK2008-2012Tick
Fred Harrison predicted a drop of 20% in his book Boom Bust (2005) but he now believes the drop will be around 30%.
London School of EconomicsJohn Van ReenenPhoto of John Van ReenenJan 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
John Van Reenen, expected prices to fall 20% before bouncing back but he doesn't state a time period for this prediction.
London School of EconomicsWillem BuiterN/AJan 2008 30%UK2008-2009Tick
Mr Buiter says that on average, lower house prices don't make UK consumers worse off. They lose as owners but gain as renters.
Gordon is a MoronDr Vernon ColemanPhoto of Dr Vernon ColemanAug 2007 50%UKNot statedTick
Dr Vernon Coleman Predicts a 50% House Price Crash in his book "Gordon is a moron".

Predictions archive