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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.
I couldn't vote. But i was/am pro independence....

Rightmove Aug 17 -0.9% MoM
Not really, but I am quite enjoying it, it's like a game of chicken. "Gwan then,...

Nationwide building society hit by 50% collapse in buy-to-let lending
Building societies do mortgages. That's what they do. It's in their nature....

Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.
Then you should appreciate how the bankers f*cked over your nation in order to g...

How will we know fair value has been reached?
Indeed People literally can't do the maths and realise their kids are being pri...

How will we know fair value has been reached?
Yield Rule of thumb, multiply monthly rental price of equivalent pro...

How will we know fair value has been reached?
Seriously though, when mortgage costs ( factored in at 5% ) are lower than the c...

How will we know fair value has been reached?
Many think fair value will be reached when house prices double again in the next...

How will we know fair value has been reached?
We're all waiting for a crash. But how will we know it's happened? I.e. how can ...

Winter of dis-content 2 is nearly here
I have been to poorer parts of the world where I have seen very able bodied men ...

London is set to be the biggest loser from any restrictive new migration policies
I';d wager those people getting cash in hand can barely afford to eat in London ...

Winter of dis-content 2 is nearly here
You said Id been brain washed by the establishment... If you buy 1 house an...

Strong Internal Candidate - No Interview Given
I would say .. dont give up yet .. The HR bods are sheilding you from the vacanc...

Balham ( the gateway to the property bubble going south )
Could you imagine how irritating the neighbours are. Anyways, we hav...

Winter of dis-content 2 is nearly here
Simple solution, buy a house then. You'll only loose 70% that way....

Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.
The fact this is possible only goes to highlight how imbalanced and unequal the ...

Time to buy Purple Bricks shares?
Looks to me like it could recover at any time....or plummet, take your pick...

Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.
Lol, much as I dislike the bankers, it is naive to dismiss 'The City's unique an...

Nationwide building society hit by 50% collapse in buy-to-let lending
i think they sit and work out market share, and the compound of the market. The ...

Winter of dis-content 2 is nearly here
Your gaffs worth 650k? You might wanna take the money and run... before recent c...

The one that got away...
My offering for today, classic chasing a falling market.... 205K, on...

Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.
The City (note the capital letter, indicating a place name) is a council area in...

Winter of dis-content 2 is nearly here
That's Turkey bordered with Syria, having an ongoing civil war with the Kurds as...

Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.
...

Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.
Wow, having pride in ones ignorance. Impressive....

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Latest: House Price Crash News

Tuesday, Aug 22 2017 Add a News Blog Article

A sustainable trend?

Notayesmaneconomics Blog: Is housing a better investment than equities?

"Moving onto the conclusion that housing is a better investment than equities then there are plenty of caveats around the data and the assumptions used. What may surprise some is the fact that equities did not win clearly as after all we are told this so often. If your grandmother told you to buy property then it seems she was onto something! As to my home country the UK it seems that the Chinese think the prospects for property are bright." As noted in the comments, regional variations, taxation, liquidity and the bailout of exposed banks in 2007 are factors in this complicated discussion.

Posted by quiet guy @ 01:07 PM 1 Comments

Trade deficit

FT: UK trade deficit swells to eight-month high

One of the responsibilities of the central bank is to manage the trade deficit by raising interest rates, however, Carney for some reason never does this. So it continues on. The UK is all over the place really I wonder how long it can all last.

Posted by stillthinking @ 12:31 AM 2 Comments

Fewer houses for sale

Business Insider: Barclays: housing transactions are in structural decline

Nothing to add.

Posted by stillthinking @ 01:36 AM 4 Comments

I thought house prices were dropping...

Telegraph: Housing market speed towards 'crisis point' as average price rises £10,000 in a year

House prices in the UK increased by £10,000 in the last year on average, according to official figures, with estate agents warning that affordability of houses is reaching "crisis point".

Posted by hpwatcher @ 12:44 PM 3 Comments

Auto enrollment torpedo incoming

CityAM: The pensions submarine will sink low earners with auto-enrolment torpedos

By 2019 wage costs for employers are going to rise, while at the same time wages received by employees is going to fall. Consider this with the previous post.

Posted by stillthinking @ 02:16 AM 2 Comments

Credit issues

Business Insider: What Carney knows but doesn't say

excessive credit as per usual

Posted by stillthinking @ 02:11 AM 1 Comments

Grand old duke of York v. Bulls and bears

The Guardian: House price slowdown is excellent news – even if estate agents disagree

House prices and a story about betfair / paddy power merger...subliminal reference to punting the market, perhaps ???

Posted by techieman @ 06:49 AM 1 Comments

Ch-ch-ch-ch-Changes

Economist: A little-noticed change in Britain’s housing market spells trouble for everybody

The market for London’s fanciest properties looks weak and overall price growth has slowed, but Britain’s housing market hardly appears to be in freefall. Poke beneath the surface, however, and it looks as if trouble is brewing. Britons are buying and selling houses less frequently than they once did. Official data suggest that the rate of residential transactions this year is set to be the lowest since 2013. The number of sales in parts of London is approaching an all-time low as home-buyers become more cautious about their personal finances.

Posted by jack c @ 02:56 PM 18 Comments

Buyers market round the corner

Dailymail: Sluggish houseprices buyers market round the corner

things dont look too good out there and that with all the props.The only thing they haven't tried is giving money away free which they did in japan but it didnt stop prices falling as much as 90% and even 23 years later they are still 40-60% less

Posted by taffee @ 10:59 AM 11 Comments

Caveat emptor

Grauniad: Leasehold houses and the ground rent scandal

Apparently much of the newbuild stock of houses has leasehold arrangments, with clauses such that the ground rent doubles every 10 years! So a guaranteed return to a spiv or offshore entity (ultimately the same) of 7% p.a. I won't bore you with the anecdote about the chessboard and the exponential function, but by 2060 many houses would have groundrent charges of over £10,000 p.a. And so by 2090 £80,000 p.a. In related articles, a figure is given of 42% of new houses with leasehold, and it is pointed out that England is one of the few places in the world where leasehold remains, it being formerly spread through the Empire. Christ...

Posted by nickb @ 06:23 PM 3 Comments

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House Price Statistics - UK National

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly change
(%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Jan 16 £292,000 N/A 7.90 TickThis monthN/A22/03/2016
LSL Property Services/Acadametrics Feb 16 £289,229 0.80 6.20 Cross£292,077
(Dec 15)
0.9810/03/2016 (PDF)
Halifax House Price Index Feb 16 £209,495 1.40 9.70 TickThis monthN/A03/03/2016 (PDF)
Home.co.uk (England and Wales) Mar 16 N/A 0.90 7.90 Cross N/A N/A 11/03/2016 (PDF)
Hometrack - Monthly National Survey Jan 16 N/A 0.50 7.80 Cross N/A N/A 26/02/2016
Land Registry Monthly Report Feb 16 £190,275 0.20 6.10 Tick£191,812
(Jan 16)
0.8030/03/2016 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Apr 16 £202,436 0.20 4.90 TickThis monthN/A02/05/2016 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Mar 16 £303,190 1.30 7.60 TickThis monthN/A21/03/2016 (PDF)

House Price Statistics - Greater London

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly
change (%)
Quarterly
change (%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Jan 16 £551,000 N/A N/A 10.80 TickThis monthN/A22/03/2016
Halifax House Price Index Q4 15 £416,163 N/A N/A 16.40 CrossThis quarterN/A01/01/2016 (PDF)
Land Registry Monthly Report Feb 16 £530,368 0.60 N/A 13.50 Tick£530,409
(Jan 16)
0.0130/03/2016 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Q1 16 £455,984 N/A 1.20 11.50 Cross£456,229
(Q4 15)
0.0504/04/2016 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Mar 16 £644,045 0.00 N/A 11.00 TickThis monthN/A21/03/2016 (PDF)

Archive of old house price surveys

House Price Predictions

If you have discovered other or revised predictions that you'd like added to this list then send an email to us with all the information for each column and also a link to a website that contains the information so that we can verify the data.

This table is now sorted by the date that the prediction was made.

Source website Analyst Photo Date prediction made Amount predicted Region Time Period Evidence Notes
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrDec 2013 35%UK2013-2020Tick
House prices will increase by another 35% by 2020, leaving a huge swathe of the population locked out of home ownership for life.

Predictions archive