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Latest: House Price Crash News

Wednesday, May 16 2012 Add a News Blog Article

London's immune system under attack

Homes and Property: London’s epidemic of discounting

A combination of greedy sellers, nervous buyers and unscrupulous estate agents who promise sky-high prices in order to tempt clients, is being blamed for an epidemic of discounting in the London property market, where a third of all homes for sale have had their original asking price slashed

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 04:40 PM 1 Comments

Oooh noooo

Reuters: Judge to lead Greece to fateful June 17 election

Greeks have been withdrawing hundreds of millions of euros (dollars) from banks in recent days as the prospect of the country being forced out of the European Union's common currency zone

Posted by mark @ 01:36 PM 2 Comments

Hard!

BBC: How hard is it to get a 95% mortgage?

According to the financial information service Moneyfacts, there are 58 deals around at the moment, from 22 lenders. That compares with 29 deals a year ago and just 19 at the start of 2010. But the reality is that very few people are being granted a home loan with just a 5% deposit.

Posted by mapp1066 @ 12:07 PM 2 Comments

Not a clue!

Mail: Bank admits inflation will overshoot for 'a year or so' as it warns of eurozone threat to UK growth

The Bank of England moved the goalposts for inflation once more today as it admitted the headline rate would run above target for another 'year or so'.

Posted by happy mondays @ 12:06 PM 1 Comments

Comments.........

Lancashire Evening Post: New village for preston

A new village of up to 2,500 homes will spring up across the north of Preston in the next 15 years, according to plans unveiled today. Preston Council has revealed it has pinpointed farmland across the north west of the city, including Higher Bartle and a 140-acre spot overlooking a motorway junction. It has also identified other sites across the city, where it will allow house-builders to develop nearly 8,500 new homes.

Posted by mark @ 11:49 AM 0 Comments

Search me Guv"

BofE: Summary of May Inflation Report

"The single biggest threat to the recovery stems from the challenges within the euro area, in particular the need to reduce the indebtedness and improve the competitiveness of some member countries. ...As was the case in past Reports, the MPC sees no meaningful way to quantify the size and likelihood of the most extreme possibilities associated with developments in the euro area, and they are therefore excluded from the fan charts. But the threat of these more extreme outcomes is likely to affect economic activity over the forecast period, for example through its effect on asset prices, including the exchange rate, bank funding costs, and confidence; such effects are captured in the MPC’s projections."

Posted by techieman @ 11:43 AM 3 Comments

Scary Housing Infographic

The Daily Capitalist: Scary Housing Infographic

An good infographic on Americas property market

Posted by martingreen @ 11:28 AM 0 Comments

Not so much with a bang as a whimper - enjoy!

Telegraph: Builders report paltry sales under NewBuy

In total, six revealed their figures. Together, they sell 30,000 properties a year - but said they have so far completed sales on only FIVE* homes under the NewBuy scheme. *My emphasis

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 10:43 AM 2 Comments

They won't pay - and why would they?

Ftalphaville: Greece: when the lights go out

The desperate/cunning scheme to get Greeks to pay property taxes by bundling them with electricity bills didn’t last long. You guessed it, people stopped paying their electricity bills and now it looks like the power company – which had to be bailed out last month – has stopped even trying to collect the levy.

Posted by dill @ 06:13 PM 8 Comments

So the South bleeds the North again

Telegraph: Water providers must help drought-hit areas, says Ofwat

Water providers with plentiful supplies have been told by the industry regulator to help drought-stricken areas.

Posted by dill @ 04:55 PM 2 Comments

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House Price Statistics - UK National

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly change
(%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Feb 12 £224,473 N/A 0.30 TickThis monthN/A17/04/2012
LSL Property Services/Acadametrics 11/05/12 Apr 12 £220,668 0.20 0.70 Cross£231,595
(Feb 08)
4.7211/05/2012 (PDF)
Halifax House Price Index Apr 12 £159,883 2.40 0.50 Tick£199,770
(Aug 07)
19.9704/05/2012 (PDF)
Home.co.uk (England and Wales) 14/05/12 May 12 N/A 0.50 1.50 Cross N/A N/A 14/05/2012 (PDF)
Hometrack - Monthly National Survey Apr 12 N/A 0.10 0.90 Cross N/A N/A 30/04/2012
Land Registry Monthly Report Mar 12 £160,372 0.60 0.60 Tick£186,045
(Jan 08)
13.8001/05/2012 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Apr 12 £164,134 0.20 0.90 Tick£186,044
(Oct 07)
11.7803/05/2012 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Apr 12 £243,737 2.90 3.40 TickThis monthN/A16/04/2012 (PDF)

House Price Statistics - Greater London

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly
change (%)
Quarterly
change (%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Feb 12 £366,435 N/A N/A 1.70 TickThis monthN/A17/04/2012
Halifax House Price Index Q1 12 £265,280 N/A N/A 3.60 Cross£320,847
(Q3 07)
17.3204/05/2012 (PDF)
Land Registry Monthly Report Mar 12 £343,522 1.80 N/A 0.70 Tick£357,976
(Jan 08)
4.0401/05/2012 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Q1 12 £293,375 N/A 0.70 2.30 Cross£303,739
(Q4 07)
3.4129/03/2012 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Apr 12 £464,944 2.10 N/A 7.90 TickThis monthN/A16/04/2012 (PDF)

Archive of old house price surveys

House Price Predictions

If you have discovered other or revised predictions that you'd like added to this list then send an email to us with all the information for each column and also a link to a website that contains the information so that we can verify the data.

This table is now sorted by the date that the prediction was made.

Source website Analyst Photo Date prediction made Amount predicted Region Time Period Evidence Notes
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2012Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2011Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 8.8%UK2013Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 5.8%UK2014Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 4.9%UK2015Tick
Jonathan DavisN/AOct 2010 40-50 % UK2007-2013Tick
New forecast set at Oct 10. Given historical reference, bank failures, credit restrictions and global economic recession.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherSep 2010 10%UK2010-2011Tick
We suspect that house prices could fall by around 10% between now and the end of 2011. Much will obviously depend on how well the economy holds up as the fiscal squeeze increasingly kicks in, mortgage availability and the amount of houses coming on to the market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasAug 2010 3.9%UK2010Tick
"During the remainder of 2010, JLL expects a decline of 3.9 per cent on current price levels, reducing the value of the average UK property by £6,500."
CEBRN/AN/AAug 2010 4%UK2010Tick
"The Centre For Economics And Business Research (CEBR) said prices will increase 4 per cent this year and continue rising until 2014, mainly due to a shortage of homes in the UK and low interest rates."
NIESRN/AN/AJul 2010 8%UK2010-2015Tick
"The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) claims that prices will fall, in real terms, by about eight per cent."
Capital Economics Ltd.N/AN/AJul 2010 23%UK2010-2012Tick
"UK house prices will fall through 2012 as the deepest public-spending cuts since World War II and tighter credit conditions deter potential buyers."
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/ADec 2009 3%UK2010Tick
Knight Frank predicts that a continuing growth in unemployment, allied to wage freezes and tax rises, and a rise in average mortgage rates will force a number of sales which, in the absence of greater depth of demand, will see prices slipping back.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasSep 2009 7%UK2010Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle's latest UK Residential Market Forecast predicts this market revival is likely to be unsustainable and a fall in prices of -7% on average is likely during 2010.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 9%UK2009Tick
Cluttons predict that house prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1.5%UK2010Tick
House prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 11%London2009Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1%London2010Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
Market OracleAndrew ButterN/AJan 2009 33%UK2007-2012Tick
For Nationwide Index; updates forecast of 35% to 40% drop (peak to trough) done in Sept 07, reason now low long term interest rates will hold prices up until bottom in 2012.
Market OracleNadeem WalayatN/AJan 2009 36%UK2007-2011Tick
For Halifax Index updates; forecast of 15% drop for 08 done in August 07, bottom 2011.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherOct 2008 15%UK2009Tick
Global insight have further revised down their house price forecasts to show a fall of 15% in 2009.
NationwideGraham BealePhoto of Graham BealeSep 2008 25%UK2008-2010Tick
Nationwide CEO Graham Beale expects a 25% decline between 2008-2010 in UK housing market before any signs of a recovery.
Jonathan DavisN/ASep 2008 40-50 % UK2007-2011Tick
New forecast set at Sep 08. Given historical reference, global bank failures,credit restrictions and economic recession.
brightsale.co.ukJeremy HowardN/AAug 2008 0%UK2008-2009Tick
New research from BrightSale suggests that prices do not have much further to fall to bring them back to long-term equilibrium
Lloyds TSBEric DanielsPhoto of Eric DanielsJul 2008 5%UK2009Tick
Lloyds predict a further 5% fall for 2009 on top of their 10-15% fall prediction for 2008.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrJul 2008 25%UK2008-2013Tick
National Housing Federation predicts that the average house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach £274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash.
DeloitteRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJul 2008 33%UK2008-2010Tick
Deloitte now expect UK house prices to fall by about a third by the end of 2010 with severe adverse effects on household spending and investment.
SavillsJeremy HelsbyN/AJul 2008 25%London2008-2009Tick
The chief executive of Savills forecast house prices in London to fall 25 per cent by the end of next year.
GMOJeremy GranthamN/AJul 2008 50%UKNot statedTick
Jeremy Grantham of GMO, the $126-bn US investment fund, notes that UK house prices "could easily decline 50% from the peak, and at that lower level they would still be higher than they were in 1997 as a multiple of income!"
Capital EconomicsRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJun 2008 35%UK2008-2010Tick
Revised forecast: House prices may fall up to 35pc over the next three years, Capital Economics has warned, in one of the bleakest forecasts yet for the UK's property market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 1-3 % UK2009Tick
Minor falls predicted for 2009.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 7-9 % UK2010-2013Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle expect slow growth from 2010-2013.
Morgan StanleyDavid MilesPhoto of David MilesMar 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
David Miles, chief UK economist at Morgan Stanley predicts that house prices will fall by up to 20% over the next two years.
Numis SecuritiesJames HamiltonN/AMar 2008 30%UKNot statedTick
James states that "UK property prices remain 44% over valued we expect them to go to a discount to fair value." (44% over-valuation would result in a 30.55% price drop)
Boom Bust Fred HarrisonPhoto of Fred HarrisonJan 2008 30%UK2008-2012Tick
Fred Harrison predicted a drop of 20% in his book Boom Bust (2005) but he now believes the drop will be around 30%.
London School of EconomicsJohn Van ReenenPhoto of John Van ReenenJan 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
John Van Reenen, expected prices to fall 20% before bouncing back but he doesn't state a time period for this prediction.
London School of EconomicsWillem BuiterN/AJan 2008 30%UK2008-2009Tick
Mr Buiter says that on average, lower house prices don't make UK consumers worse off. They lose as owners but gain as renters.
Gordon is a MoronDr Vernon ColemanPhoto of Dr Vernon ColemanAug 2007 50%UKNot statedTick
Dr Vernon Coleman Predicts a 50% House Price Crash in his book "Gordon is a moron".

Predictions archive