Real House Prices

real house price trend graph

House Price Crash Forum

Latest Topics

California: Oakland Votes To Allow Large-Scale Marijuana Farming
California: Oakland Votes to Allow Large-Scale Marijuana Farming - LINK QuoteOa...

Budget Review Recommends Up To 60,000 Public Jobs Cut - Scotish Govt
QuoteUp to 60,000 public sector workers in Scotland could lose their jobs in t...

Second Home Owners To Lose Tax Breaks
great news QuoteThe tax advantages on furnished holiday lets were reinstated ...

Strike And You Go To Jail
All quiet on the Greek front QuoteIn an advance reminder that the National L...

People Putting Their Prices Up
Why do they do this if their hosue has been on the market for months, possible y...

M4 Business Credit Lowest On Record
JULY 29, 2010, 8:55 A.M. ET.2nd UPDATE: UK Money Growth Weak, M4 Lending Lowes...

Compulsory Retirement At 65 To Be Phased Out
QuotePeople will be encouraged to work longer under government plans to phase ...

Bis: It's The Implicit Taxpayer Guarantee That Drives Banks To Get Bigger
QuoteThe Bank for International Settlements claims in Long-term Issues in Inte...

British Banks - Over-Capitalised, Over-Profitable And Over Here
U.K. Banks’ Profit May Increase on Declining Bad Debt (Update2) By Jon M...

Bellwether Property Near Me Drops 25K
I have been following a "typical" detached bungalow in a nice area (east of Brig...

Visit Housepricecrash forum >>

Latest: House Price Crash News

Thursday, Jul 29 2010 Add a News Blog Article

Agency Express property activity index latest

FT: Government's spending cuts impact housing market

Both the number of houses being put up for sale and those being sold dropped in July, data from the monthly Agency Express property activity index has shown. Agency Express blames this on the government’s recently announced spending cuts as potential buyers have revised their budgets and are putting their moving plans temporarily on hold. For the second consecutive month, the number of monthly house sales has fallen. In July, it dropped by 2.9 per cent compared to June. This was the lowest level since January 2010.

Posted by jack c @ 03:41 PM 0 Comments

We Must Pay This Off Somehow!

BBC: Fixed retirement age to be axed

Setting up the ability/obligation to work forever. Thiw will enable anyone who bought their home with a big mortgage post 2000 to work a lot longer to pay it off. This also enables the inevitable creation of the 50 year mortgage, coming to a cinema near you some time in the future, to find yet more leverage from the younger generation to keep the whole pyramid scheme going.

Posted by ontheotherhand @ 03:39 PM 0 Comments

A surge of properties coming on market then

Yahoo: Second home owners to lose tax breaks

George Osborne reversed the measure in the June Budget saying he wanted to help small businesses operating in the tourism industry. However, the Treasury has now said it intends to make it much tougher for home owners to qualify for the breaks. It means more than a quarter of the 65,000 home owners offering holiday lets in Britain will no longer be eligible for the tax benefits from 2011-2012, according to a consultation document published by the Treasury.

Posted by mark @ 03:31 PM 1 Comments

The house price rally has run out of steam - what's next?

MoneyWeek: The house price rally has run out of steam - what's next?

The latest rally in UK house prices is over. But what happens next? Will we see a long slow grind back to fair value? Or are we heading for a second crash?

Posted by damien @ 02:04 PM 0 Comments

More housing, but not for UK people

Mail: Nearly 100,000 new homes must be built every year for immigrants

''Nearly 100,000 new homes must be built every year just to provide housing for immigrants, ministers disclosed yesterday. Four out of every ten new houses or flats built to cope with the rising population will go to a migrant, they said. Over a 25-year period, immigrants will require 2.5million extra homes unless the Government meets its pledges to bring about a major reduction in numbers arriv­ing to live in Britain.''

Posted by hpwatcher @ 12:55 PM 3 Comments

Why house prices will collapse and interest rates will rise

Telegraph: Europe's €30 trillion headache

The rating agency Standard & Poor's said banks are at risk of a vicious circle as sovereign debt fears and financial stress feed off each other. Most of their mortgages and other personal loans stay on their balance sheets and require funding. This contrasts with the US, where financial institutions securitize (these) loans and which do not require balance sheet funding. The collective funding needs of Europe's banks are vast. Total liabilities are €23 trillion for the Euro-zone and €8 trillion for the UK, Sweden, and Denmark. The lack of funding over the next 2 years must surely mean a collapse in house prices and mortgage interest rates.

Posted by miken @ 11:30 AM 3 Comments

The spiral of death!

Cnn: Foreclosures climb in 75% of metro areas

"Look at a place like Salt Lake City," said Sharga. "The foreclosure rise there appears to be entirely related to the economy," not because people can't afford their subprime loans.

Posted by mark @ 10:13 AM 3 Comments

Anyone for a bargain? wait a bit longer for 90% drops

Bloomberg: Greek Villas Marked Down 45% as Crisis Hits Island Homes

Greek island homes, long coveted by millionaires and Hollywood stars such as Tom Hanks, are being marked down by as much as 45 percent as the country’s debt crisis destroys demand for holiday getaways. A half-built villa on Mykonos, an island in the Aegean Sea known for its all-night beach parties, is being offered by brokers at Athens-based Ploumis Sotiropoulos OE for 2 million euros ($2.6 million) after the price was reduced by 500,000 euros. The same firm is seeking a buyer for a three-bedroom home on Corfu for 750,000 euros, down from an original asking price of 1.4 million euros. So far, no bidders have emerged.

Posted by mark @ 09:54 AM 0 Comments

Brutal Combination

Mish: Mish via Bill Gross ponders demographics

stimulus won't work not because of demographics per se, but rather because of the enormous amounts of consumer debt (as a result of decades of Keynesian and Monetarist stimulus) in conjunction with unfavorable demographics and global wage arbitrage.

Posted by bellwether @ 09:51 AM 18 Comments

Down 0.5% in July YOY +6.6%

BBC: House price inflation eases again, says Nationwide

Rather than blaming the World Cup I will blame those dastardly house builders for threatening to build some more. One more month of this and the Property Tycoons will be having to dip into their pockets to fund their houses.

Posted by tenyearstogetmymoneyback @ 07:16 AM 15 Comments

View More News Posts >>

House Price Statistics - UK National

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly change
(%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index May 10 £209,505 N/A 11.00 Tick£221,758
(Jan 08)
5.5313/07/2010
FT House Price Index (Acadametrics) Jun 10 £218,119 0.50 7.70 Cross£231,595
(Feb 08)
5.8209/07/2010 (PDF)
Halifax House Price Index Jun 10 £166,203 0.60 6.30 Tick£199,770
(Aug 07)
16.8008/07/2010 (PDF)
Home.co.uk (England and Wales) Jul 10 N/A 0.10 0.40 Cross N/A N/A 12/07/2010 (PDF)
Hometrack - Monthly National Survey Jun 10 N/A 0.10 2.10 Cross N/A N/A 28/06/2010
Land Registry Monthly Report 28/07/10 Jun 10 £166,072 0.10 8.40 Tick£186,045
(Jan 08)
10.7428/07/2010 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Jun 10 £170,111 0.10 8.70 Tick£186,044
(Oct 07)
8.5630/06/2010 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Jul 10 £236,332 0.60 3.70 Tick£242,500
(May 08)
2.5419/07/2010 (PDF)

House Price Statistics - Greater London

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly
change (%)
Quarterly
change (%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index May 10 £333,704 N/A N/A 17.10 Tick£351,096
(Jan 08)
4.9513/07/2010
Halifax House Price Index Q2 10 £263,284 N/A N/A 10.10 Cross£320,847
(Q3 07)
17.9421/07/2010 (PDF)
Land Registry Monthly Report 28/07/10 Jun 10 £338,027 0.50 N/A 12.20 Tick£357,976
(Jan 08)
5.5728/07/2010 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Q2 10 £290,249 N/A 2.50 13.20 Cross£303,739
(Q4 07)
4.4430/06/2010 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Jul 10 £422,248 1.70 N/A 4.80 Tick£429,597
(Jun 10)
1.7119/07/2010 (PDF)

Archive of old house price surveys

House Price Predictions

If you have discovered other or revised predictions that you'd like added to this list then send an email to us with all the information for each column and also a link to a website that contains the information so that we can verify the data.

This table is now sorted by the date that the prediction was made.

Source website Analyst Photo Date prediction made Amount predicted Region Time Period Evidence Notes
NIESR 01/01/1970N/AN/AJul 2010 8%UK2010-2015Tick
"The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) claims that prices will fall, in real terms, by about eight per cent."
Capital Economics Ltd. 01/01/1970N/AN/AJul 2010 5%UK2010Tick
"UK house prices will fall through 2012 as the deepest public-spending cuts since World War II and tighter credit conditions deter potential buyers."
Capital Economics Ltd. 01/01/1970N/AN/AJul 2010 10%UK2011Tick
"UK house prices will fall through 2012 as the deepest public-spending cuts since World War II and tighter credit conditions deter potential buyers."
Capital Economics Ltd. 01/01/1970N/AN/AJul 2010 10%UK2012Tick
"UK house prices will fall through 2012 as the deepest public-spending cuts since World War II and tighter credit conditions deter potential buyers."
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/ADec 2009 3%UK2010Tick
Knight Frank predicts that a continuing growth in unemployment, allied to wage freezes and tax rises, and a rise in average mortgage rates will force a number of sales which, in the absence of greater depth of demand, will see prices slipping back.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasSep 2009 7%UK2010Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle's latest UK Residential Market Forecast predicts this market revival is likely to be unsustainable and a fall in prices of -7% on average is likely during 2010.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 9%UK2009Tick
Cluttons predict that house prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1.5%UK2010Tick
House prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 11%London2009Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1%London2010Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
Market OracleAndrew ButterN/AJan 2009 33%UK2007-2012Tick
For Nationwide Index; updates forecast of 35% to 40% drop (peak to trough) done in Sept 07, reason now low long term interest rates will hold prices up until bottom in 2012.
Market OracleNadeem WalayatN/AJan 2009 36%UK2007-2011Tick
For Halifax Index updates; forecast of 15% drop for 08 done in August 07, bottom 2011.
Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherOct 2008 15%UK2009Tick
Global insight have further revised down their house price forecasts to show a fall of 15% in 2009.
NationwideGraham BealePhoto of Graham BealeSep 2008 25%UK2008-2010Tick
Nationwide CEO Graham Beale expects a 25% decline between 2008-2010 in UK housing market before any signs of a recovery.
Housepricecrash.co.ukJonathan DavisPhoto of Jonathan DavisSep 2008 40-50 % UK2007-2011Tick
New forecast set at Sep 08. Given historical reference, global bank failures,credit restrictions and economic recession.
brightsale.co.ukJeremy HowardN/AAug 2008 0%UK2008-2009Tick
New research from BrightSale suggests that prices do not have much further to fall to bring them back to long-term equilibrium
Lloyds TSBEric DanielsPhoto of Eric DanielsJul 2008 5%UK2009Tick
Lloyds predict a further 5% fall for 2009 on top of their 10-15% fall prediction for 2008.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrJul 2008 25%UK2008-2013Tick
National Housing Federation predicts that the average house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach £274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash.
DeloitteRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJul 2008 33%UK2008-2010Tick
Deloitte now expect UK house prices to fall by about a third by the end of 2010 with severe adverse effects on household spending and investment.
SavillsJeremy HelsbyN/AJul 2008 25%London2008-2009Tick
The chief executive of Savills forecast house prices in London to fall 25 per cent by the end of next year.
GMOJeremy GranthamN/AJul 2008 50%UKNot statedTick
Jeremy Grantham of GMO, the $126-bn US investment fund, notes that UK house prices "could easily decline 50% from the peak, and at that lower level they would still be higher than they were in 1997 as a multiple of income!"
Capital EconomicsRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJun 2008 35%UK2008-2010Tick
Revised forecast: House prices may fall up to 35pc over the next three years, Capital Economics has warned, in one of the bleakest forecasts yet for the UK's property market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 1-3 % UK2009Tick
Minor falls predicted for 2009.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 7-9 % UK2010-2013Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle expect slow growth from 2010-2013.
Morgan StanleyDavid MilesPhoto of David MilesMar 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
David Miles, chief UK economist at Morgan Stanley predicts that house prices will fall by up to 20% over the next two years.
Numis SecuritiesJames HamiltonN/AMar 2008 30%UKNot statedTick
James states that "UK property prices remain 44% over valued we expect them to go to a discount to fair value." (44% over-valuation would result in a 30.55% price drop)
Boom Bust Fred HarrisonPhoto of Fred HarrisonJan 2008 30%UK2008-2012Tick
Fred Harrison predicted a drop of 20% in his book Boom Bust (2005) but he now believes the drop will be around 30%.
London School of EconomicsJohn Van ReenenPhoto of John Van ReenenJan 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
John Van Reenen, expected prices to fall 20% before bouncing back but he doesn't state a time period for this prediction.
London School of EconomicsWillem BuiterN/AJan 2008 30%UK2008-2009Tick
Mr Buiter says that on average, lower house prices don't make UK consumers worse off. They lose as owners but gain as renters.
Gordon is a MoronDr Vernon ColemanPhoto of Dr Vernon ColemanAug 2007 50%UKNot statedTick
Dr Vernon Coleman Predicts a 50% House Price Crash in his book "Gordon is a moron".

Predictions archive