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Carney, the Canadian coward does it again
The market would eventually serve him, (and the world) a very humble pie. Years ...

Ha ha Phil and Kursty make it big
phil would be on gruff men rumble flick wouldnt he, they woulnt be in the same p...

Base rate irrelevant - 3 month USD Libor matters most
The yield went from about 1.43% to about 1.52% today. Is that a 7.5% move?...

Base rate irrelevant - 3 month USD Libor matters most
The 10 year Gilt went up 7.5% today, does anyone know why?...

Base rate irrelevant - 3 month USD Libor matters most
It's also going up shaprly - It does look to precede an expected rate rise, so w...

Carney, the Canadian coward does it again
Every time the economy tanks, the rich and powerful get richer and more powerful...

Base rate irrelevant - 3 month USD Libor matters most
USD Libor presumably doesn't affect us too much, what's happening to the GBP Lib...

Carney, the Canadian coward does it again
Transactions have also been tanking for a while so i'm told by varying reports. ...

Carney, the Canadian coward does it again
That's what I was trying to say but you managed it in 3x fewer words...

Labour seeks to lift financial curbs on council house building
I am sure the following Tory party will be rubbing their hands at all that new f...

Carney, the Canadian coward does it again
Carey's approach has worked a treat the rich and powerful are considerably more ...

Carney, the Canadian coward does it again
I have persuaded my long term strategy of waiting for prices to become vaguely r...

Carney, the Canadian coward does it again
Transactions are tanking though, a lot of people are having to accept that the h...

Carney, the Canadian coward does it again
Yes it seems like indecision gets you everywhere these days. Whatever happened t...

Carney, the Canadian coward does it again
Ive been hearing such talk for years now. Its always almost. Theyve spun th...

Ha ha Phil and Kursty make it big
...

Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.
KZB - why don't we increase everyone's wages by 30% - yeh!.... that will make us...

Ha ha Phil and Kursty make it big
...

Ha ha Phil and Kursty make it big
A fave viz page...

Carney, the Canadian coward does it again
You would have thought that people would realise that if 10 years of Carney et a...

Deflationary collapse and the Reflation Cycle to Come.
DB after the big falls I'd have thought they would grind lower as rates rise wou...

Carney, the Canadian coward does it again
Jeez. An economy really powering forward. Like a stuttering old banger....

Deflationary collapse and the Reflation Cycle to Come.
@durhamborn you mentioned a while back about being forced to take some unwanted ...

Carney, the Canadian coward does it again
Agreeing with @Uncle_Kenny about U.S. LIBOR. Gilt yields will rise in turn, espe...

Carney, the Canadian coward does it again
He will never raise them. He'll kick the can until he gets to leave on a nice ...

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Latest: House Price Crash News

Thursday, Apr 19 2018 Add a News Blog Article

Will a Mexican stand off stand or deliver ?

Evening Standard: London house prices fall for first time since 2009 recession

Nick Leeming, chairman of agents Jackson-Stops, said London vendors and buyers had been engaged in a stand off last year but now “sellers are becoming fed up with waiting and are instead having to compromise on price to make a sale”.

Posted by techieman @ 01:06 AM 2 Comments

The Power of Rising House Prices

Capital and Conflict: The Second Coming of Sub-Prime

...Once the markets realise this, they’ll react very badly to any signs of housing price drops in Australia. And those signs just hit the news reels, with the major cities seeing house prices drop. The world is about to discover who has been swimming naked in the Australian housing market. And it could unleash panic that goes global.

Posted by cornishman @ 11:21 AM 3 Comments

@£125 a square foot!

Moneyweek (and FT): Prefab houses off the production line

Average UK home of a (embarrassing) 993.5 sq feet is therefore going to be under £125k. What justification is there for anyone to have to pay many, many times that when a plot of agricultural land can be acquired for a few grand? What would at least make things a little more competitive is if the land seller and builder were decoupled. So Mr Rentier could provide standard sized plots for sale for £lots and then the buyer could choose from a panel of say 5 manufacturers. Then Mr local government could say to Mr Rentier that'll be £ to provide all the infrastructure that the value of your plot is derived from.

Posted by mombers @ 03:30 PM 1 Comments

2K per worker

Torygraph: Bank of England warned lenders end of £127bn cheap funding scheme posed 'systemic risk'

Lloyds, RBS, Nationwide and VirginMoney have borrowed around 60bn under the BoE Funding for Lending (a scheme to lower the costs of capital). There are about 30 million workers in the UK, so this is about 2K across each and every worker. Scheme is closing so this is more effective tightening which again, like mandatory saving auto enrollment bypasses interest rates.

Posted by stillthinking @ 07:53 AM 1 Comments

Rate rise doubts as property demand falls, says RICS

BBC News: News article

Buyers keeping away from the market has nothing to do with Interest rates. High house prices and not interest rates are keeping potential buyers away from the market.

Posted by magnifico @ 09:11 AM 5 Comments

Deflation from housing

Zerohedge: Beware mother of all deflations

USA opinion piece with UK as case study. Until 1982 mortgages were supplied by building societies. Building societies were -not- granted the same privilege to create credit/money so finance availability was limited. After 1982 the banks, capable of creating loans ex nihilo got into the market, valuations became circular on lending, and the only limit to price increases was(is) how much debt can be sustained leading to 2008, debts can't grow, process goes into reverse ->massive government intervention.

Posted by stillthinking @ 09:33 AM 0 Comments

Bank of England must tread softly to stop housing slowdown turning into a crash

Evening Standard: Bank of England must tread softly to stop housing slowdown turning into a crash

The biggest slowdown has been in the capital, which could have repercussions for the rest of the UK as price moves tend to percolate out of the city. What happens in London doesn’t stay in London.

Posted by becky @ 12:03 PM 4 Comments

The times ... they are a changing

Inside Property Imvesting: New HMO Rules 2018 – It’s Official!

Another hassle for LLS to conclude is it worth it....or nuffin to see here ? http://www.insidepropertyinvesting.com/new-hmo-rules-licensing-2018-official/ (in case the link err doesn't ).

Posted by techieman @ 08:25 AM 0 Comments

Effectively interest rate rises

CityAM: Banks leave £13bn in cheap money from Term Funding Scheme on the table

The point has been made often enough that the BoE can influence credit expansion through different ways than just interest rates. So " end of the scheme is expected to prompt a rise in borrowing costs" and elsewhere reported by the FT (subscription only i don*t have one but headline is enough), that UK banks are selling asset backed securities (mortgage backed etc) at the fastest rate in years. But there can't be any buyer willing to accept practically zero return as the BoE has done.

Posted by stillthinking @ 04:09 PM 0 Comments

The biggest washest machine in the world?

Independent: UK housing crisis: Influx of foreign cash boosted average property prices by a quarter, research finds

Billions of pounds flowing into the UK property market through foreign companies has pumped up house price growth by more than a quarter, according to new research ... London Mayor Sadiq Khan commissioned research into the effect of foreign money on the housing market. It found that overseas buyers snapped up 3,600 of London’s 28,000 newly built homes between 2016 and 2016. Half of those were supposedly priced for first-time buyers at between £200,000 and £500,000.

Posted by quiet guy @ 05:26 PM 0 Comments

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House Price Statistics - UK National

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly change
(%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Jan 16 £292,000 N/A 7.90 TickThis monthN/A22/03/2016
LSL Property Services/Acadametrics Feb 16 £289,229 0.80 6.20 Cross£292,077
(Dec 15)
0.9810/03/2016 (PDF)
Halifax House Price Index Feb 16 £209,495 1.40 9.70 TickThis monthN/A03/03/2016 (PDF)
Home.co.uk (England and Wales) Mar 16 N/A 0.90 7.90 Cross N/A N/A 11/03/2016 (PDF)
Hometrack - Monthly National Survey Jan 16 N/A 0.50 7.80 Cross N/A N/A 26/02/2016
Land Registry Monthly Report Feb 16 £190,275 0.20 6.10 Tick£191,812
(Jan 16)
0.8030/03/2016 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Apr 16 £202,436 0.20 4.90 TickThis monthN/A02/05/2016 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Mar 16 £303,190 1.30 7.60 TickThis monthN/A21/03/2016 (PDF)

House Price Statistics - Greater London

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly
change (%)
Quarterly
change (%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Jan 16 £551,000 N/A N/A 10.80 TickThis monthN/A22/03/2016
Halifax House Price Index Q4 15 £416,163 N/A N/A 16.40 CrossThis quarterN/A01/01/2016 (PDF)
Land Registry Monthly Report Feb 16 £530,368 0.60 N/A 13.50 Tick£530,409
(Jan 16)
0.0130/03/2016 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Q1 16 £455,984 N/A 1.20 11.50 Cross£456,229
(Q4 15)
0.0504/04/2016 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Mar 16 £644,045 0.00 N/A 11.00 TickThis monthN/A21/03/2016 (PDF)

Archive of old house price surveys

House Price Predictions

If you have discovered other or revised predictions that you'd like added to this list then send an email to us with all the information for each column and also a link to a website that contains the information so that we can verify the data.

This table is now sorted by the date that the prediction was made.

Source website Analyst Photo Date prediction made Amount predicted Region Time Period Evidence Notes
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrDec 2013 35%UK2013-2020Tick
House prices will increase by another 35% by 2020, leaving a huge swathe of the population locked out of home ownership for life.

Predictions archive