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A fall!First MoM drop in a year and a half....

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Latest: House Price Crash News

Tuesday, Sep 30 2014 Add a News Blog Article

Oooooh noooooo

Telegraph: Mass default looms as world sinks beneath a sea of debt

On a global level, growth is being steadily drowned under a rising tide of debt, threatening renewed financial crisis, a continued squeeze to living standards, and eventual mass default.

Posted by mark @ 09:48 AM 6 Comments

Prices resume falling

Nationwide: UK house prices fell by 0.2% in September

UK house prices fell by 0.2% in September, following sixteen consecutive monthly price rises. Annual house price growth in London slowed somewhat, from 25.8% in Q2 to 21% (-4.8%) in Q3. Nevertheless, at £401,072, average prices in the capital reached a record high, 31% above their 2007 peak. In the UK as whole, prices are around 2% above their pre-crisis peak (excluding London they are less than 1% above their 2007 peak). “Price growth may soften further in the final quarter of the year, given the high base for comparison from Q4 2013. However, the outlook remains uncertain. There have been tentative signs from surveyors and estate agents that buyer demand is starting to moderate.

Posted by khards @ 09:15 AM 7 Comments

Start of a new trend

This is Money: You wait ages for a decent 5-year fix mortgage and then five come at once: Nationwide and Barclays latest to cut rates back below 3%

Anybody viewing bond rates will have seen that the longer term bonds are collapsing as the yield curve flattens like a pancake. My prediction is that this trend will continue unabated until we see affordable 15, 20 and even 25 year fixed terms. This is a longer term trend yet, since fixed rates were not even at all available in the 1970's for most people. With oil prices starting to collapse, wages not rise for at least three years and petrol prices plunging 5p in recent weeks, expect lower central bank rates before they rise. Expect negative rates before we see them much higher.

Posted by libertas @ 12:18 AM 3 Comments

Sainsbury's slashes petrol 5p/litre

Telegraph: Petro Price Wars

Did I hear DEFLATION? I bet those folks sucked into five year fixed rates are squirming now.

Posted by libertas @ 11:53 PM 1 Comments

Interest rates set to remain low for AT LEAST three years

Metro: Three more years of wages misery: Middle-income earners hardest hit as real pay continues to fall

This, along with Osborne's announced austerity means DEFLATION, countered by money printing that will ramp house prices.

Posted by libertas @ 11:52 PM 0 Comments

Wise words from down under - equally appropriate to UK

The daily Reckoning: Pareto’s 80–20 rule and Economic Rent

"Pareto’s pioneering study was actually in relation to population and wealth. His very first piece of research found that 20% of the population owned 80% of the land in Italy, and he observed the obvious inequality that followed. He then carried out surveys on a variety of other countries. To his surprise, he found that a similar distribution applied. Now, the fact that land ownership is concentrated should not have surprised Pareto. And it shouldn’t surprise you, simply because land is economically worthwhile to accumulate — to collect the economic rent. And since only 20% of the people are collecting this rent, this leads to an obvious concentration of wealth."

Posted by pete green @ 02:19 PM 0 Comments

When government intervention helps the free market

Forbes: In World's Best-Run Economy, House Prices Keep Falling -- Because That's What House Prices Are Supposed To Do

A thought provoking article on government mandated house prices in Germany - but it is fundamental to their economic success - of course this would be better achieved by a Land Value Tax than government mandated prices and borrowing limits.

Posted by pete green @ 01:39 PM 0 Comments

Interest in taking on record levels of debt in decline

Housing market stalls and GDP is re-evaluated: Cityam

This was not news for me as I have been watching the mortgage market very closely via google trends. The reason for using google trends is that I believe it to be less manipulated than bank/government stats. If you also take trends for Rightmove's website interest and the above 'mortgage loan' website category you will find a strong correlation between google search interest and property prices. There is a few months lag between prices falling and interest in mortgages falling, but that could be the land registry and sales process lag. You will also find that price rises also correlate with increased interest in mortgages. The above chart if for UK only.

Posted by khards @ 10:51 AM 3 Comments

Less money chasing and extra 130k properties this autumn

Reuters: UK mortgage approvals fall more than expected in August

The Bank of England said mortgage approvals numbered 64,212 last month, the weakest reading since May, and down from 66,100 in July. Analysts had forecast a modest fall in approvals to 65,000. Monthly mortgage approvals are still short of the 90,000 level seen before the 2008 financial crisis, and below a recent peak of more than 76,000 in January. Recent surveys of the housing market have suggested the pace of its recovery has slowed, after rapid growth in activity and house prices at the start of the year. The British Bankers' Association reported last week that the number of mortgages approved by its members fell to a 12-month low in August.

Posted by khards @ 10:09 AM 6 Comments

The students who pay £1000pw in Prime Central London

Wetherell: The students who pay £1000pw in Prime Central London

Students from wealthy families from Middle East, Russia and Africa are now the biggest luxury rental market in Central London, according to a study by London Central Portfolio. Naomi Heaton, chief executive of London Central Portfolio, said students are now the firm's biggest market, occupying 41% of its properties at an average of £600 a week, or more than £2,500 a month. The number of wealthy, overseas student renters in the areas of Mayfair, Belgravia, Knightsbridge, Chelsea and Kensington, has doubled from 12% to 29% between 2006 and 2012.

Posted by anna @ 08:54 AM 0 Comments

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House Price Statistics - UK National

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly change
Annual change
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index May 14 £262,000 N/A 10.50 TickThis monthN/A15/07/2014
LSL Property Services/Acadametrics Jun 14 £268,637 0.70 9.60 CrossThis monthN/A11/07/2014 (PDF)
Halifax House Price Index Jun 14 £183,462 0.60 8.80 Tick£199,770
(Aug 07)
8.1609/07/2014 (PDF) (England and Wales) Jul 14 N/A 0.57 9.56 Cross N/A N/A 15/07/2014 (PDF)
Hometrack - Monthly National Survey Jul 14 N/A 0.10 0.00 Cross N/A N/A 25/07/2014
Land Registry Monthly Report Jun 14 £172,011 0.00 6.40 Tick£186,045
(Jan 08)
7.5428/07/2014 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Jul 14 £188,949 0.10 10.60 TickThis monthN/A31/07/2014 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Jul 14 £270,159 0.80 6.50 Tick£272,275
(Jun 14)
0.7821/07/2014 (PDF)

House Price Statistics - Greater London

Source website Period covered Average
house price
change (%)
change (%)
Annual change
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index May 14 £492,000 N/A N/A 20.10 TickThis monthN/A15/07/2014
Halifax House Price Index Q2 14 £330,315 N/A N/A 15.90 CrossThis quarterN/A04/07/2014 (PDF)
Land Registry Monthly Report Jun 14 £437,608 0.10 N/A 16.40 Tick£439,719
(May 14)
0.4828/07/2014 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Q2 14 £400,404 N/A 7.60 25.80 CrossThis quarterN/A02/07/2014 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Jul 14 £587,174 0.40 N/A 13.90 Tick£592,763
(May 14)
0.9421/07/2014 (PDF)

Archive of old house price surveys

House Price Predictions

If you have discovered other or revised predictions that you'd like added to this list then send an email to us with all the information for each column and also a link to a website that contains the information so that we can verify the data.

This table is now sorted by the date that the prediction was made.

Source website Analyst Photo Date prediction made Amount predicted Region Time Period Evidence Notes
RICSN/AN/ADec 2013 8%UK2014Tick
This growth is being driven by the acute imbalance between burgeoning buyer demand and sluggish supply with new instructions to estate agents close to stagnating.
RICSN/AN/ADec 2013 11%London2014Tick
It remains to be seen what impact the recently announced increase in capital gains tax for overseas vendors will have on the prime central London market.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrDec 2013 35%UK2013-2020Tick
House prices will increase by another 35% by 2020, leaving a huge swathe of the population locked out of home ownership for life.
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2012Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2011Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 8.8%UK2013Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 5.8%UK2014Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 4.9%UK2015Tick
Jonathan DavisN/AOct 2010 40-50 % UK2007-2013Tick
New forecast set at Oct 10. Given historical reference, bank failures, credit restrictions and global economic recession.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherSep 2010 10%UK2010-2011Tick
We suspect that house prices could fall by around 10% between now and the end of 2011. Much will obviously depend on how well the economy holds up as the fiscal squeeze increasingly kicks in, mortgage availability and the amount of houses coming on to the market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasAug 2010 3.9%UK2010Tick
"During the remainder of 2010, JLL expects a decline of 3.9 per cent on current price levels, reducing the value of the average UK property by £6,500."
CEBRN/AN/AAug 2010 4%UK2010Tick
"The Centre For Economics And Business Research (CEBR) said prices will increase 4 per cent this year and continue rising until 2014, mainly due to a shortage of homes in the UK and low interest rates."
NIESRN/AN/AJul 2010 8%UK2010-2015Tick
"The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) claims that prices will fall, in real terms, by about eight per cent."
Capital Economics Ltd.N/AN/AJul 2010 23%UK2010-2012Tick
"UK house prices will fall through 2012 as the deepest public-spending cuts since World War II and tighter credit conditions deter potential buyers."
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/ADec 2009 3%UK2010Tick
Knight Frank predicts that a continuing growth in unemployment, allied to wage freezes and tax rises, and a rise in average mortgage rates will force a number of sales which, in the absence of greater depth of demand, will see prices slipping back.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasSep 2009 7%UK2010Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle's latest UK Residential Market Forecast predicts this market revival is likely to be unsustainable and a fall in prices of -7% on average is likely during 2010.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 9%UK2009Tick
Cluttons predict that house prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1.5%UK2010Tick
House prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 11%London2009Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1%London2010Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
Market OracleAndrew ButterN/AJan 2009 33%UK2007-2012Tick
For Nationwide Index; updates forecast of 35% to 40% drop (peak to trough) done in Sept 07, reason now low long term interest rates will hold prices up until bottom in 2012.
Market OracleNadeem WalayatN/AJan 2009 36%UK2007-2011Tick
For Halifax Index updates; forecast of 15% drop for 08 done in August 07, bottom 2011.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherOct 2008 15%UK2009Tick
Global insight have further revised down their house price forecasts to show a fall of 15% in 2009.
NationwideGraham BealePhoto of Graham BealeSep 2008 25%UK2008-2010Tick
Nationwide CEO Graham Beale expects a 25% decline between 2008-2010 in UK housing market before any signs of a recovery.
Jonathan DavisN/ASep 2008 40-50 % UK2007-2011Tick
New forecast set at Sep 08. Given historical reference, global bank failures,credit restrictions and economic recession. HowardN/AAug 2008 0%UK2008-2009Tick
New research from BrightSale suggests that prices do not have much further to fall to bring them back to long-term equilibrium
Lloyds TSBEric DanielsPhoto of Eric DanielsJul 2008 5%UK2009Tick
Lloyds predict a further 5% fall for 2009 on top of their 10-15% fall prediction for 2008.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrJul 2008 25%UK2008-2013Tick
National Housing Federation predicts that the average house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach £274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash.
DeloitteRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJul 2008 33%UK2008-2010Tick
Deloitte now expect UK house prices to fall by about a third by the end of 2010 with severe adverse effects on household spending and investment.
SavillsJeremy HelsbyN/AJul 2008 25%London2008-2009Tick
The chief executive of Savills forecast house prices in London to fall 25 per cent by the end of next year.
GMOJeremy GranthamN/AJul 2008 50%UKNot statedTick
Jeremy Grantham of GMO, the $126-bn US investment fund, notes that UK house prices "could easily decline 50% from the peak, and at that lower level they would still be higher than they were in 1997 as a multiple of income!"
Capital EconomicsRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJun 2008 35%UK2008-2010Tick
Revised forecast: House prices may fall up to 35pc over the next three years, Capital Economics has warned, in one of the bleakest forecasts yet for the UK's property market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 1-3 % UK2009Tick
Minor falls predicted for 2009.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 7-9 % UK2010-2013Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle expect slow growth from 2010-2013.
Morgan StanleyDavid MilesPhoto of David MilesMar 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
David Miles, chief UK economist at Morgan Stanley predicts that house prices will fall by up to 20% over the next two years.
Numis SecuritiesJames HamiltonN/AMar 2008 30%UKNot statedTick
James states that "UK property prices remain 44% over valued we expect them to go to a discount to fair value." (44% over-valuation would result in a 30.55% price drop)
Boom Bust Fred HarrisonPhoto of Fred HarrisonJan 2008 30%UK2008-2012Tick
Fred Harrison predicted a drop of 20% in his book Boom Bust (2005) but he now believes the drop will be around 30%.
London School of EconomicsJohn Van ReenenPhoto of John Van ReenenJan 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
John Van Reenen, expected prices to fall 20% before bouncing back but he doesn't state a time period for this prediction.
London School of EconomicsWillem BuiterN/AJan 2008 30%UK2008-2009Tick
Mr Buiter says that on average, lower house prices don't make UK consumers worse off. They lose as owners but gain as renters.
Gordon is a MoronDr Vernon ColemanPhoto of Dr Vernon ColemanAug 2007 50%UKNot statedTick
Dr Vernon Coleman Predicts a 50% House Price Crash in his book "Gordon is a moron".

Predictions archive