Real House Prices

real house price trend graph

House Price Crash Forum

Latest Topics

Energy Bills
I see power ni dropping 10.3% from April 1 Anyone know who's the cheapest for ga...

Massacre Of Millionaire Mansions
According to the Daily Mail (so it must be true), high end properties have seen ...

One In Five Gp Surgeries In London May Close Within Three Years
    One in five GP surgeries in London could close over the next thr...

Battered Banks Poised To Reveal If New Crisis Has Begun
Fears that the banking sector is facing a new onslaught of pressures dominated ...

Who's The Oldest Renter Here? I'm 44 This Month.
I'm proud to say I've never bought a property in the UK, and I'm 44 this month! ...

Under 35's Face Becoming Perm Renters
  Nine out of 10 Britons on modest incomes under the age of 35 will be fro...

My List Of Events That Will Finally Start The Ball Rolling..
I think it would be over dramatic to suggest a perfect storm is nearly upon us, ...

Dirty Tactics - Artificially Indicative Interest Rates To Lure In.
Hmmm.  We have been looking at opportunities for a family house in our area...

Why Nirp (Negative Interest Rates) Will Fail Miserably
Almost every day now we see some 'expert' or another suddenly waking up to the d...

P2P
Surprised there's no discussion here of P2P, or am I looking in the wrong place?...

Visit Housepricecrash forum >>

Latest: House Price Crash News

Sunday, Feb 14 2016 Add a News Blog Article

People farming, UK style

Guardian: Under-35s in the UK face becoming permanent renters, warns thinktank

Nine out of 10 Britons on modest incomes under the age of 35 will be frozen out of home ownership within a decade, according to a study from a leading thinktank that lays bare the impact of surging property prices on the young ... The thinktank, chaired by the former Conservative cabinet minister David Willetts, said that in 1998 more than half of people aged 16-34 living in households with incomes between 10% and 50% of the national average were buying their own homes. The percentage had dropped to 25% in 2013-14 and was on course to be 10% across the UK as a whole by 2025. In London it is forecast to be just 5%

Posted by quiet guy @ 12:37 PM 2 Comments

The Riksbank elected to cut its policy rate from minus 0.35pc to minus 0.5pc on Thursday.

Telegraph: Sweden takes negative interest rates even lower as Riksbank fights to keep up with global stimulus

So, Sweden is actually working hard to keep consumer prices high. Who again do they work for?! Maybe countries with strong currencies should attempt to build stuff for local people and sell it to them if they are allowed to become more wealthy with a stronger currency? Regardless, this is a #longtermdeflationarytrend - and no amount of monetary policy will change it, so just deal with stronger currency, which has pro's and cons and is not all bad.

Posted by libertas @ 11:49 AM 4 Comments

'Mouldy Old Dough' (one for techieman)

BBC: Flat sold despite it being described as 'mouldy'

An Essex flat, has been sold for £22,000 over its asking price, despite it being described as "mouldy" and "full of rubbish". The candid ad showed pictures full of junk and mould and also admitted there could be "fleas to keep you company." Rather than deterring buyers the two bed property was actually sold for £147,500.

Posted by jack c @ 07:17 PM 11 Comments

DEFLATION is the game, Carney is a fraudster

Telegraph: Markets rule out UK interest rate rise until end of decade

Financial markets now believe there is a 50pc chance the Bank of England will cut rates this year. Will I get an apology for those who attacked me on this blog for stating the bleeding obvious that yes, rates cannot stay at 0.5% forever, because the only consistency in this world is change, but that shift can be down as well as up and negative is just as likely as positive at this point of time. Will you act accordingly, facing reality, or make inane statements about the relative morality of these statements? Furthermore, will you accept that Carney has DEFRAUDED millions of home owners into fixed term mortgage rates that now look exorbitantly expensive in possibly one of the largest mis-selling, rackateering scams in history to which nobody gains compensation & all receive tax hikes?

Posted by libertas @ 06:08 PM 5 Comments

JP Morgue predicts MINUS 2.69% rates for UK

Zero Hedge: JPM's Striking Forecast: ECB Could Cut Rates To -4.5%; BOJ To -3.45%; Fed To -1.3%

Hold onto your seats. No wonder Osbourne is attempting to regulate the housing market. At a rate like this, banks will be paying folk to take out a mortgage, but with that amount of deflation, money will gain value just sitting under a mattress, but he will not be able to stem hot money from the continent that from less than 4% rates there. As said, the US Dollar can still rise if Federal rates go negative, so long as it is not as negative as others. #longtermtrend

Posted by libertas @ 03:06 PM 7 Comments

Edmonton in Enfield is London's hottest market

Quickmovenow: 10 best places for a quick house sale

As I have been explaining for a while, Edmonton in Enfield, North London will be one of the hottest markets because of it suddenly coming onto London Overground, with Crossrail 2 about to run through it with no previous reason to buy there, resulting in a massive turnaround. Well, Quck Move Now have looked at the average time to sell a property and Edmonton is the only London ward in the top ten at number seven. The next great opportunity will be the next raft of stations to be taken over by TFL's London Overground, placing them too on the Central London Tube Map. My prediction is that houses in Edmonton will soon match prices in similar south London Overground zones such as Sydenham and Forest Hill where three bed houses exchange for more than £600k.

Posted by libertas @ 02:30 AM 4 Comments

Tory answer to mansion tax? Collect less tax from the most valuable homes!

Torygraph: Stamp duty changes have led to huge hole in receipts for Osborne

"Stamp duty changes made by the chancellor George Osborne have led to a 12.1pc decline in revenue during the first ten months of last year, according to new research. An over reliance on stamp duty from London and a decline in property transactions there has created a £620m deficit between January and October 2015, compared with the same period the year before, according to estate agency Knight Frank." This was obviously going to happen - transaction taxes tend to decrease transactions. If he'd instead gotten rid of the 0% rate for the imaginary council tax bands I-Z, revenue would have been raised. Local democracies could have even decided to raise extra for flood defences or care homes and not have to deal with the terrible consequences of unilateral Whitehall cuts

Posted by mombers @ 08:20 PM 3 Comments

You never know!

Telegraph: 10 reasons why I'm looking forward to the house price crash

Nonetheless, I can see how it could happen – and because the bubble is now so big, once it started it would quickly become totally unstoppable.

Posted by happy mondays @ 01:37 PM 3 Comments

Turn again Whittington

Daily Mail: Is London's luxury housing market about to crash?

Top hedge funds have placed multi-million-pound bets that the London luxury housing market will tank. Odey Asset Management, BlueMountain Capital Management and Anchorage Capital are reported to have shorted the stock of Berkeley Group, the London-focused housebuilder, according to the Financial Times last night.Fears of global economic meltdown, emerging markets currency falls and the Brexit referendum have led some investors to bet the demand for the top end of the housing market in London will collapse.

Posted by jack c @ 09:07 AM 0 Comments

Is the property market as rigged as LIBOR?

The Independent: There’s a lot of flapping and clucking in the UK ‘luxury apartment’ market as the chickens come home to roost

"I was told this week by an industry insider that “85 per cent sold” really means “£2,000 deposits paid on 85 per cent”. And because they face an economic slowdown at home, Chinese investors in particular are saying: “Keep the £2,000 – and if you don’t like it come after us in the Chinese courts.” They are defaulting, in other words, with no consequences. And the result is that some developers are left holding a huge supply of apartments that few onshore buyers can afford. Prepare, said my nark, for 50 per cent-plus price drops."

Posted by sneaker @ 07:20 PM 4 Comments

View More News Posts >>

House Price Statistics - UK National

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly change
(%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Aug 15 £284,000 N/A 5.20 TickThis monthN/A13/10/2015
LSL Property Services/Acadametrics Sep 15 £284,742 0.40 4.20 CrossThis monthN/A08/10/2015 (PDF)
Halifax House Price Index Mar 15 £192,970 0.40 8.10 Tick£199,770
(Aug 07)
3.4009/04/2015 (PDF)
Home.co.uk (England and Wales) Apr 15 N/A 0.90 6.50 Cross N/A N/A 14/04/2015 (PDF)
Hometrack - Monthly National Survey Sep 14 N/A 0.00 0.00 Cross N/A N/A 26/09/2014
Land Registry Monthly Report Aug 15 £184,682 0.50 4.20 Tick£186,045
(Jan 08)
0.7328/09/2015 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Mar 15 £189,454 0.10 5.10 TickThis monthN/A02/04/2015 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Mar 15 £281,752 1.00 5.40 TickThis monthN/A16/03/2015 (PDF)

House Price Statistics - Greater London

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly
change (%)
Quarterly
change (%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Aug 15 £522,000 N/A N/A 4.20 Tick£525,000
(Jul 15)
0.5713/10/2015
Halifax House Price Index Q4 14 £356,054 N/A N/A 14.50 CrossThis quarterN/A08/01/2015 (PDF)
Land Registry Monthly Report Aug 15 £493,026 1.70 N/A 6.60 TickThis monthN/A28/09/2015 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Q1 15 £408,780 N/A 1.00 12.70 CrossThis quarterN/A02/04/2015 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Mar 15 £580,308 0.40 N/A 5.50 Tick£601,180
(Nov 14)
3.4716/03/2015 (PDF)

Archive of old house price surveys

House Price Predictions

If you have discovered other or revised predictions that you'd like added to this list then send an email to us with all the information for each column and also a link to a website that contains the information so that we can verify the data.

This table is now sorted by the date that the prediction was made.

Source website Analyst Photo Date prediction made Amount predicted Region Time Period Evidence Notes
RICSN/AN/ADec 2013 8%UK2014Tick
This growth is being driven by the acute imbalance between burgeoning buyer demand and sluggish supply with new instructions to estate agents close to stagnating.
RICSN/AN/ADec 2013 11%London2014Tick
It remains to be seen what impact the recently announced increase in capital gains tax for overseas vendors will have on the prime central London market.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrDec 2013 35%UK2013-2020Tick
House prices will increase by another 35% by 2020, leaving a huge swathe of the population locked out of home ownership for life.
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2012Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2011Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 8.8%UK2013Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 5.8%UK2014Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 4.9%UK2015Tick
Jonathan DavisN/AOct 2010 40-50 % UK2007-2013Tick
New forecast set at Oct 10. Given historical reference, bank failures, credit restrictions and global economic recession.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherSep 2010 10%UK2010-2011Tick
We suspect that house prices could fall by around 10% between now and the end of 2011. Much will obviously depend on how well the economy holds up as the fiscal squeeze increasingly kicks in, mortgage availability and the amount of houses coming on to the market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasAug 2010 3.9%UK2010Tick
"During the remainder of 2010, JLL expects a decline of 3.9 per cent on current price levels, reducing the value of the average UK property by £6,500."
CEBRN/AN/AAug 2010 4%UK2010Tick
"The Centre For Economics And Business Research (CEBR) said prices will increase 4 per cent this year and continue rising until 2014, mainly due to a shortage of homes in the UK and low interest rates."
NIESRN/AN/AJul 2010 8%UK2010-2015Tick
"The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) claims that prices will fall, in real terms, by about eight per cent."
Capital Economics Ltd.N/AN/AJul 2010 23%UK2010-2012Tick
"UK house prices will fall through 2012 as the deepest public-spending cuts since World War II and tighter credit conditions deter potential buyers."
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/ADec 2009 3%UK2010Tick
Knight Frank predicts that a continuing growth in unemployment, allied to wage freezes and tax rises, and a rise in average mortgage rates will force a number of sales which, in the absence of greater depth of demand, will see prices slipping back.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasSep 2009 7%UK2010Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle's latest UK Residential Market Forecast predicts this market revival is likely to be unsustainable and a fall in prices of -7% on average is likely during 2010.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 9%UK2009Tick
Cluttons predict that house prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1.5%UK2010Tick
House prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 11%London2009Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1%London2010Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
Market OracleAndrew ButterN/AJan 2009 33%UK2007-2012Tick
For Nationwide Index; updates forecast of 35% to 40% drop (peak to trough) done in Sept 07, reason now low long term interest rates will hold prices up until bottom in 2012.
Market OracleNadeem WalayatN/AJan 2009 36%UK2007-2011Tick
For Halifax Index updates; forecast of 15% drop for 08 done in August 07, bottom 2011.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherOct 2008 15%UK2009Tick
Global insight have further revised down their house price forecasts to show a fall of 15% in 2009.
NationwideGraham BealePhoto of Graham BealeSep 2008 25%UK2008-2010Tick
Nationwide CEO Graham Beale expects a 25% decline between 2008-2010 in UK housing market before any signs of a recovery.
Jonathan DavisN/ASep 2008 40-50 % UK2007-2011Tick
New forecast set at Sep 08. Given historical reference, global bank failures,credit restrictions and economic recession.
brightsale.co.ukJeremy HowardN/AAug 2008 0%UK2008-2009Tick
New research from BrightSale suggests that prices do not have much further to fall to bring them back to long-term equilibrium
Lloyds TSBEric DanielsPhoto of Eric DanielsJul 2008 5%UK2009Tick
Lloyds predict a further 5% fall for 2009 on top of their 10-15% fall prediction for 2008.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrJul 2008 25%UK2008-2013Tick
National Housing Federation predicts that the average house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach £274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash.
DeloitteRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJul 2008 33%UK2008-2010Tick
Deloitte now expect UK house prices to fall by about a third by the end of 2010 with severe adverse effects on household spending and investment.
SavillsJeremy HelsbyN/AJul 2008 25%London2008-2009Tick
The chief executive of Savills forecast house prices in London to fall 25 per cent by the end of next year.
GMOJeremy GranthamN/AJul 2008 50%UKNot statedTick
Jeremy Grantham of GMO, the $126-bn US investment fund, notes that UK house prices "could easily decline 50% from the peak, and at that lower level they would still be higher than they were in 1997 as a multiple of income!"
Capital EconomicsRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJun 2008 35%UK2008-2010Tick
Revised forecast: House prices may fall up to 35pc over the next three years, Capital Economics has warned, in one of the bleakest forecasts yet for the UK's property market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 1-3 % UK2009Tick
Minor falls predicted for 2009.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 7-9 % UK2010-2013Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle expect slow growth from 2010-2013.
Morgan StanleyDavid MilesPhoto of David MilesMar 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
David Miles, chief UK economist at Morgan Stanley predicts that house prices will fall by up to 20% over the next two years.
Numis SecuritiesJames HamiltonN/AMar 2008 30%UKNot statedTick
James states that "UK property prices remain 44% over valued we expect them to go to a discount to fair value." (44% over-valuation would result in a 30.55% price drop)
Boom Bust Fred HarrisonPhoto of Fred HarrisonJan 2008 30%UK2008-2012Tick
Fred Harrison predicted a drop of 20% in his book Boom Bust (2005) but he now believes the drop will be around 30%.
London School of EconomicsJohn Van ReenenPhoto of John Van ReenenJan 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
John Van Reenen, expected prices to fall 20% before bouncing back but he doesn't state a time period for this prediction.
London School of EconomicsWillem BuiterN/AJan 2008 30%UK2008-2009Tick
Mr Buiter says that on average, lower house prices don't make UK consumers worse off. They lose as owners but gain as renters.
Gordon is a MoronDr Vernon ColemanPhoto of Dr Vernon ColemanAug 2007 50%UKNot statedTick
Dr Vernon Coleman Predicts a 50% House Price Crash in his book "Gordon is a moron".

Predictions archive