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House Price Crash Forum

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Young face growing mortgage debt burden
Yep. If I found out I definitely only had a couple of months to live, but w...

Cheer me up
Below; HPC style forum in California (although with many more owners who brag ab...

Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.
You're just being lined up for Referendum Vote 2 -Because You Got It Wrong The F...

Hammond plots 'big offer' on housing and student loan debts as he tries to draw up a 'revolutionary' Budget amid calls for him to be fired
The problem is, rents are so high relative to mortgage costs currently that wher...

RICS survey very negative in SE
This. I drifted into one of these companies in the early 00s in my 20s as a...

Hammond plots 'big offer' on housing and student loan debts as he tries to draw up a 'revolutionary' Budget amid calls for him to be fired
I think they just carried the flame for her. Once she removed the idea of c...

Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.
Hope they had a nice meal though. "British official says talks at risk of c...

Hammond plots 'big offer' on housing and student loan debts as he tries to draw up a 'revolutionary' Budget amid calls for him to be fired
So you blame Mrs Thatcher for Blair and Brown's housing polices? So New Labour h...

None of your business......
I would prefer for my medical records not to be on any database, let alone a nat...

Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.
Quick couple of questions for you: A. Do you think we're culturally the sam...

How to Retire at 40
Noted, I'll keep Hale to hand. Target - was previously to retire around 55i...

Gold strategy in the current economy
How about when the Gold Standard stopped and all currencies no longer have any r...

House Sitting
House anyone else registered, paid and applied to be a house sitter and not got ...

Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.
Looks like it, pretty big coincidence otherwise. What about the collapse in...

Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.
As you should, and probably do, know forecasts provide a central case around whi...

Non, je ne regrette rien
Giyf https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2017/m...

Stamp duty could be cut for home owners who make their properties more energy efficient, minister says
New car smell...

Stamp duty could be cut for home owners who make their properties more energy efficient, minister says
But my point is jack in the VED and just add the difference to the fuel. O...

Stamp duty could be cut for home owners who make their properties more energy efficient, minister says
They do, already. As well....

None of your business......
And to add disorganization to incompetence, consider the case of my Mum's med re...

Non, je ne regrette rien
How and when did this avocado toast meme start? I've only noticed people talking...

RICS survey very negative in SE
If houses are cheaper, where will landlords find tenants?...

Non, je ne regrette rien
Of course the corollary is I live in the sticks where my work options are far mo...

Non, je ne regrette rien
Trying to house your family with no parents around to help and B*****d landlord...

None of your business......
Are you having a laugh? NHS data loss scandal deepens with further 1...

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Latest: House Price Crash News

Tuesday, Oct 17 2017 Add a News Blog Article

Friday 13 Bear food

Mortgage Solutions: Housing ‘bubble alert’ issued by mortgage adviser for 19 UK towns and cities

Mortgage broker One 77 Mortgages has issued a “bubble alert” on 19 mainly northern UK towns and cities, where house prices are rising but mortgage lending is falling.The research confirmed the “gap” is a measure of affordability by comparing the percentage difference between annual drop in lending against annual house price changes. With this metric, Cleveland was most at risk, with property values rising 11% between Mar 2016 and Mar 2017, while lending fell 0.9%. Following Cleveland was Blackburn, with a gap of 6.8%, and Blackpool, at 6.2%.

Posted by jack c @ 09:46 AM 2 Comments

Another

Daily Mail: £1.7m Georgian manor with 9-hole golf course and a helipad could be yours for £25... if you can complete this crossword

These scams always work the same way. Publicise in the local paper (or DM if you have connections); collect the money; then low and behold not enough tickets sold [this one will need 150,000 tickets) and the raffle gets cancelled, with the owner keeping 20% of proceeds "to cover administrative costs"..... A breathtaking £1.7 million six-bedroom Georgian mansion boasting a nine-hole golf course and helicopter landing pad is being offered as a competition prize. Donna Pirie, 54, is hoping to raise £1 million for charity by raffling off her stunning home for just £25 a ticket

Posted by little professor @ 01:24 PM 1 Comments

Thousands of feckless borrowers set to lose state subsidy

LoveBTL: Support for Mortgage Interest overhaul: thousands 'at risk of losing homes'

OAP and on an interest-only mortgage? Well come next April the government will stop paying your mortgage bill and will offer you a loan on fantastic terms instead.

Posted by landofconfusion @ 01:26 PM 10 Comments

BoE is limited

BBC: Cost of fixed-rate mortgages starts to rise

"The cost of taking out a fixed-rate mortgage has started to rise, even though the Bank of England has kept base rates at a record low." Exactly! Interest on savings comes from the opposing debt, BoE has issued QE which is mainly interest free hence the UK banks have more in deposits than they do in debts i.e. the interest paid by the debtors cannot cover the interest earned by the savers because they don't match up anymore. Going forward the BoE can tighten by increasing capital requirements, any regulation that reduces credit expansion, but they can't meaning fully increase interest rates because no way rates can rise for savers unless QE is withdrawn. So more QE for deflation, micro-management of credit availability for inflation.

Posted by stillthinking @ 01:40 AM 4 Comments

No supply side reforms

Buzzfeed: Prime Minister pledges tuition fee overhaul and £10bn boost for first-time buyers

May has come out with additional funding basically the same as Osbourne, so I think that clearly there is no intention from the Tories for supply side reform on housing. I also don't feel that a majority of the electorate is after cheaper housing. Corbyn I feel sure off the idea of compelling councils to purchase property, grant planning permission, and then sell onwards to capture the value, because it would kill two birds with one stone. Increase availability of housing, and also fund his election promises. It seems to me that 100,000 properties a year with planning permission values a conservative estimate of 50K = 5 billion to blow and thats per year. I wonder how the youngsters will vote they seem to be kingmaker.

Posted by stillthinking @ 01:10 AM 13 Comments

Your home their land; you keep paying

Grauniad: New figures reveal scale of controversial leasehold homes

Title says it all. Activity seems to have died a death on this news blog... ironic given that HPC just may, possibly, now be underway...

Posted by nickb @ 10:01 AM 16 Comments

Clueless Carney

Torygraph: Mark Carney doubles down on likely interest rate rise in face of 'inflationary' Brexit

As pointed out in the comments, the inflationary overshoot Carney so eagerly ascribes to Brexit might just be because the BoE dropped interest rates on the news and applied additional monetary stimulus.

Posted by stillthinking @ 01:45 AM 1 Comments

What nonsense | HPC saw it coming

BBC News: The collapse of Northern Rock: Ten years on

The "experts" want to ABDI-cate all responsibility for being clueless. This very forum provided sound insight into the CDO crsisi over 10 years ago.

Posted by lvmreader @ 06:52 PM 1 Comments

Its not Carney you should consider..

Torygraph: Is the Bank of England running out of rhetorical firepower on interest rates?

Carney has bluffed to get the market to anticipate rate hikes thereby tightening for him, and has done so many times successfully as the article explains. As the BoE are truthfully in charge of setting the rate then if the market doesn't tighten on his behalf and he is forced to raise, they are wrong-footed, and if they do tighten in anticipation then the BoE does nothing. Its like being a successful blackmailer. Where this cunning plan breaks down though is if inflation starts breaking out outside of the financial markets i.e. wage inflation. I have often wondered for all the CPI, RPI talk, the only thing they ever consider is wage inflation, because all of the data on wage inflation is to hand direct from inland revenue, and if wages aren't going up then neither are prices.

Posted by stillthinking @ 12:07 PM 0 Comments

Foxtons bashing

Moneyweek: What Britain’s best-loved estate agent can tell us about UK house prices

Estate agents’ fortunes can tell us a great deal about which way the housing market is going. Foxtons’ share price is in freefall.

Posted by frizzers @ 10:18 AM 0 Comments

View More News Posts >>

House Price Statistics - UK National

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly change
(%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Jan 16 £292,000 N/A 7.90 TickThis monthN/A22/03/2016
LSL Property Services/Acadametrics Feb 16 £289,229 0.80 6.20 Cross£292,077
(Dec 15)
0.9810/03/2016 (PDF)
Halifax House Price Index Feb 16 £209,495 1.40 9.70 TickThis monthN/A03/03/2016 (PDF)
Home.co.uk (England and Wales) Mar 16 N/A 0.90 7.90 Cross N/A N/A 11/03/2016 (PDF)
Hometrack - Monthly National Survey Jan 16 N/A 0.50 7.80 Cross N/A N/A 26/02/2016
Land Registry Monthly Report Feb 16 £190,275 0.20 6.10 Tick£191,812
(Jan 16)
0.8030/03/2016 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Apr 16 £202,436 0.20 4.90 TickThis monthN/A02/05/2016 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Mar 16 £303,190 1.30 7.60 TickThis monthN/A21/03/2016 (PDF)

House Price Statistics - Greater London

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly
change (%)
Quarterly
change (%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Jan 16 £551,000 N/A N/A 10.80 TickThis monthN/A22/03/2016
Halifax House Price Index Q4 15 £416,163 N/A N/A 16.40 CrossThis quarterN/A01/01/2016 (PDF)
Land Registry Monthly Report Feb 16 £530,368 0.60 N/A 13.50 Tick£530,409
(Jan 16)
0.0130/03/2016 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Q1 16 £455,984 N/A 1.20 11.50 Cross£456,229
(Q4 15)
0.0504/04/2016 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Mar 16 £644,045 0.00 N/A 11.00 TickThis monthN/A21/03/2016 (PDF)

Archive of old house price surveys

House Price Predictions

If you have discovered other or revised predictions that you'd like added to this list then send an email to us with all the information for each column and also a link to a website that contains the information so that we can verify the data.

This table is now sorted by the date that the prediction was made.

Source website Analyst Photo Date prediction made Amount predicted Region Time Period Evidence Notes
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrDec 2013 35%UK2013-2020Tick
House prices will increase by another 35% by 2020, leaving a huge swathe of the population locked out of home ownership for life.

Predictions archive